• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제36권1호
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• pp.83-103
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• 2004

The methodological framework of the Level 2 PSA appears to be currently standardized in a formalized fashion, but there have been different opinions on the way the sources of uncertainty are characterized and treated. This is primarily because the Level 2 PSA deals with complex phenomenological processes that are deterministic in nature rather than random processes, and there are no probabilistic models characterizing them clearly. As a result, the probabilistic quantification of the Level 2 PSA CET / APET is often subjected to two sources of uncertainty: (a) incomplete modeling of accident pathways or different predictions for the behavior of phenomenological events and (b) expert-to-expert variation in estimating the occurrence probability of phenomenological events. While a clear definition of the two sources of uncertainty involved in the Level 2 PSA makes it possible to treat an uncertainty in a consistent manner, careless application of these different sources of uncertainty may produce different conclusions in the decision-making process. The primary purpose of this paper is to characterize typical sources of uncertainty that would often be addressed in the Level 2 PSA and to provide a formal guidance for quantifying their impacts on the PSA Level 2 risk results. An additional purpose of this paper is to give a formal approach on how to combine random uncertainties addressed in the Level 1 PSA with subjectivistic uncertainties addressed in the Level 2 PSA.

• Bulletin of the Korean Chemical Society
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• 제35권4호
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• pp.1057-1060
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• 2014

In our previous articles, an approach has been proposed for the evaluation of the uncertainty of overall result from multiple measurements. In the approach, uncertainty sources were classified into two groups: the first including those giving same 'systematic' effect on each individual measurement and the second including the others giving 'random' effect on each individual measurement and causing a variation among individual measurement results. The arithmetic mean of the replicated measurements is usually assigned as the value for the overall result. Uncertainty of the overall result is determined by separately evaluating and combining an overall uncertainty from sources of the 'systematic' effect and another overall uncertainty from sources of the 'random' effect. This conceptual approach has been widely adopted in chemical metrology society. In this study, further logical proof with more detailed mathematical expressions is provided on the approach.

• Journal of electromagnetic engineering and science
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• 제4권2호
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• pp.79-86
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• 2004

In this paper, the uncertainty in the calibration of coaxial thermal noise sources using a noise figure measuring (NFM) equipment is evaluated. Contributions to the uncertainty such as the calibration uncertainty of the standard noise source, mismatch, measurement of adapter efficiency, ambient temperature variation, and repeatability are evaluated in the frequency range of 10 MHz to 18 ㎓. Results show that the expanded uncertainty(k=2) is 0.23 ㏈ for the noise sources of 5 ㏈ and 15 ㏈ ENR, and 0.27 ㏈ for those of 21 ㏈.

• 대한토목학회논문집
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• 제33권6호
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• pp.2293-2302
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• 2013

홍수위험관리에서 홍수범람도는 가장 기본적인 자료로 사용되고 있다. 그러나 홍수범람도 구축과정에서 다양한 형태로 불확실성이 발생하기 때문에 이는 정확한 홍수 방재계획 수립에 걸림돌로 작용할 수 있다. 그러므로 불확실성 요소를 제거하거나 개선하여 홍수범람도의 정확성을 향상시키는 것이 필요하나, 모든 불확실성을 완벽하게 제거하는 것은 경제적 타당성과 홍수에 대한 지식의 한계 때문에 불가능하며 매우 비효율적일 수 있다. 또한, 홍수범람도에 전달되는 불확실성 요소의 영향은 다른 환경변수에 따라 다를 수 있기 때문에 다양한 주변 환경의 조건을 고려한 불확실성 요소에 대한 민감도 분석이 필요하다. 이를 통하여 제거해야하거나 개선시켜야할 불확실성 요소의 우선순위를 정함으로써 전략적이면서도 효율적인 홍수위험관리를 유도할 수 있을 것으로 판단된다. 본 연구는 주변 환경의 조건에 따라 홍수범람도에 미치는 불확실성 요소의 민감도를 FOA방법을 이용하여 분석하고, 이를 미국 Indiana주 Columbus시 근처의 Flatrock 강에 적용하여 홍수범람도에 가장 큰 불확실성을 전달하는 요소를 선별하였다. 본 연구결과는 하나의 불확실성 요소가 다른 입력변수나 매개변수와 같은 주변 환경에 의해 홍수범람도에 다르게 영향을 준다는 것을 확인하였으며 또한, 대상유역의 홍수범람도 구축과정에서 가장 큰 불확실성 요소는 지형자료로 판명되었다.

• 한국분말재료학회지
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• 제14권6호
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• pp.410-414
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• 2007

Carbon contamination from the binder resin is an inherent problem with the metal powder injection molding process. Residual carbon in the W-Cu compacts has a strong impact on the thermal and electric properties. In this study, uncertainty was quantified to evaluate determination of carbon in a W-15%Cu MIM body by the combustition method. For a valid generalization about this evaluation, uncertainty scheme applied even to the repeatability as well as the uncertainty sources of each analyse step and quality appraisal sources. As a result, the concentration of carbon in the W-Cu part were measured as 0.062% with expanded uncertainty of 0.003% at 95% level. This evaluation example may be useful to uncertainty evaluation for other MIM products.

• 한국연초학회지
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• 제26권2호
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• pp.168-178
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• 2004

Uncertainty of final measurement results considering main uncertainty sources being in nicotine of mainstream smoke was estimated. This study was accomplished by using the ISO 'The Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement'. Using the two point re-calibration method, uncertainty for nicotine concentration was calculated considering the uncertainty sources of each step. The concentration and uncertainty of nicotine in mainstream smoke was estimated as $153.95{\pm}17.84\;{\mu}g/mL\;(0.77\pm0.089 mg/cig)$. The expanded uncertainty was $17.84 {\mu}g/mL(\pm0.089 mg/cig).$ The reported expanded uncertainty of the measurement is stated as the standard uncertainty of measurement multiplied by a coverage factor of 2, which for a normal distribution corresponds to a coverage probability of approximately $95\%$ The former expression indicates the conversion concentration into the sample.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제6권1호
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• pp.19-43
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• 2014

A risk assessment framework for evaluating building structures is implemented in this study. This framework allows considering sources of uncertainty both on structural capacity and seismic demand. In particular randomness on seismic load, incident angle, material properties, floor mass and structural damping are considered; in addition the choice of fibre modelling versus plastic hinge model is also considered as a source of uncertainty. The main objective of this work is to study the contribution of these sources of uncertainty on the fragilities of steel and steel-reinforced concrete composite 3D building structures. The fragility curves are expressed in the form of a two-parameter lognormal distribution where vertical statistics in conjunction with metaheuristic optimization are implemented for calculating the two parameters.

• 한국연초학회지
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• 제22권1호
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• pp.91-98
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• 2000

This study was carried out to evaluate the uncertainty in the analysis of menthol content from the mentholated cigarette. Menthol in the sample cigarette was extracted with methanol containing an anethole as an internal standard, and then analyzed by gas chromatography. As the sources of uncertainty associated with the analysis of menthol, were the following points tested, such as the weighing of sample, the preparation of extracting solution, the pipetting of extracting solution into the sample, the preparation of standard solution, the precision of GC injections for standard & sample solution, the GC response factor of standard solution, the reproducibility of menthol analysis, and the determination of water content in tobacco, etc. For calculating the uncertainties, type A of uncertainty was evaluated by the statistical analysis of a series of observation, and type B by the information based on supplier's catalogue and/or certificated of calibration. Sources of uncertainty were subsequently included and mathematically combined with the uncertainty arising from the assessment of accuracy to provide the overall uncertainty. It was shown that the main source of uncertainty came from the errors in the reproducibility of menthol and water determination, the purity of menthol reference material in the preparation of standard solution, and the precision of GC injections for sample solution. The errors in sample weighing and volume measurement contributed relatively little to the overall uncertainty. The expanded uncertainty in the mentholated cigarettes, Korean and American brand, at 0.95 level of statistical confidence was $\pm$0.06 and $\pm$0.07 mg/g for a menthol content of 1.89 and 2.32 mg/g, respectively.

• 한국연초학회지
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• 제28권2호
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• pp.144-151
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• 2006

A measurement uncertainty for analysis of volatile organic compound (benzene) in cigarette mainstream smoke was carried out. In this study one point re-calibration method was used to estimate uncertainty for benzene. The measurement uncertainty was calculated based on the uncertainty sources of each analysis step, quality appraisal sources, drift and repeatability. As a result, the concentration and expanded uncertainty of benzene in cigarette mainstream smoke were measured as $38.08{\pm}4.36{\mu}g/cig$. Relative uncertainty of drift and repeatability obtained were 5% and 3%, respectively.

• 한국추진공학회지
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• 제24권3호
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• pp.18-30
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• 2020

본 연구는 고체추진기관의 추력측정불확도 추정 방법에 관한 것이다. 힘 측정불확도 추정 지침은 ISO와 국내외 기구에서 제공하고 있으나 모든 내용이 실험실에서 운용하는 하중시험기와 하중 센서의 교정을 중심으로 기술되고, 개념적으로 기술되어 있다. 추력시험대 불확도의 주요 원인인 교정식과 선형화 불확도의 추정에 대해서는 해당 지침을 직접 적용할 수는 없다. 본 논문에서는 측정불확도 기본 개념을 이용하여 교정식 불확도와 교정식의 선형화 불확도를 추정하는 식을 만들고, 이를 추력 시험대의 추력측정불확도에 추정하여 적용하였으며, 비교적 간단한 추력측정불확도 추정 방법을 제안하였다.