• 제목/요약/키워드: uncertainty of demand

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사무소 건물의 외피 리모델링에 따른 에너지절감효과 및 경제성 분석 (The Energy Saving Effect and Economic Assessment of Office Building according to the Building Envelope Remodeling)

  • 최선우;김지연;박효순;김준태
    • KIEAE Journal
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    • 제12권6호
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    • pp.85-92
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    • 2012
  • The Korean government has introduced building regulations with improved energy conservation measures, including higher insulation levels for building envelope. However, there are many existing buildings that tend to consume more energy for heating and cooling than new buildings, as they were built under the former regulations with relatively higher U-values of walls and glazing. In order to improve energy efficiency in existing buildings, green remodelling of building envelope and building services are required. For existing buildings, building services improvements have been achieved through energy service company(ESCO), but much attention has not been paid to building envelope improvements with various reasons, such as uncertainty of energy saving effect design issues and costs. The aim of this study is to evaluate the impact of building envelope improvements in a typical commercial building on its heating and cooling energy loads. The results show that the improvement of glazing with lower U-values has the highest energy saving effects, followed by wall, roof and floor, under the condition of same level of insulation improvements. However, high insulated glazing increased LCC because of higher initial investment costs.

신재생에너지 국가참조표준 시스템 구축 및 개발 - 모델 기반 표준기상년 (System Construction and Data Development of National Standard Reference for Renewable Energy - Model-Based Standard Meteorological Year)

  • 김보영;김창기;윤창열;김현구;강용혁
    • 신재생에너지
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    • 제20권1호
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    • pp.95-101
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    • 2024
  • Since 1990, the Renewable Big Data Research Lab at the Korea Institute of Energy Technology has been observing solar radiation at 16 sites across South Korea. Serving as the National Reference Standard Data Center for Renewable Energy since 2012, it produces essential data for the sector. By 2020, it standardized meteorological year data from 22 sites. Despite user demand for data from approximately 260 sites, equivalent to South Korea's municipalities, this need exceeds the capability of measurement-based data. In response, our team developed a method to derive solar radiation data from satellite images, covering South Korea in 400,000 grids of 500 m × 500 m each. Utilizing satellite-derived data and ERA5-Land reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), we produced standard meteorological year data for 1,000 sites. Our research also focused on data measurement traceability and uncertainty estimation, ensuring the reliability of our model data and the traceability of existing measurement-based data.

ARIMA 모형에 기초한 수요실적자료 보정기법 개발 (A Correction Technique of Missing Load Data Based on ARIMA Model)

  • 박종배;이찬주;이재용;신중린;이창호
    • 대한전기학회논문지:전력기술부문A
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    • 제53권7호
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    • pp.405-413
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    • 2004
  • Traditionally, electrical power systems had the vertically-integrated industry structures based on the economics of scale. However power systems have been recently reformed to increase the energy efficiency of the power system. According to these trends, Korean power industry has been partially restructured, and the competitive generation market was opened in 2001. In competitive electric markets, correct demand data are one of the most important issue to maintain the flexible electric markets as well as the reliable power systems. However, the measuring load data can have the uncertainty because of mechanical trouble, communication jamming, and other things. To obtain the reliable load data, an efficient evaluation technique to adust the missing load data is needed. This paper analyzes the load pattern of historical real data and then the turned ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) model, PCHIP(Piecewise Cubic Interporation) and Branch & Bound method are applied to seek the missing parameters. The proposed method is tested under a variety of conditions and tested with historical measured data from the Korea Energy Management Corporation (KEMCO).

Identification of Contaminant Injection in Water Distribution Network

  • Marlim, Malvin Samuel;Kang, Doosun
    • 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국수자원학회 2020년도 학술발표회
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    • pp.114-114
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    • 2020
  • Water contamination in a water distribution network (WDN) is harmful since it directly induces the consumer's health problem and suspends water service in a wide area. Actions need to be taken rapidly to countermeasure a contamination event. A contaminant source ident ification (CSI) is an important initial step to mitigate the harmful event. Here, a CSI approach focused on determining the contaminant intrusion possible location and time (PLoT) is introduced. One of the methods to discover the PLoT is an inverse calculation to connect all the paths leading to the report specification of a sensor. A filtering procedure is then applied to narrow down the PLoT using the results from individual sensors. First, we spatially reduce the suspect intrusion points by locating the highly suspicious nodes that have similar intrusion time. Then, we narrow the possible intrusion time by matching the suspicious intrusion time to the reported information. Finally, a likelihood-score is estimated for each suspect. Another important aspect that needs to be considered in CSI is that there are inherent uncertainties, such as the variations in user demand and inaccuracy of sensor data. The uncertainties can lead to overlooking the real intrusion point and time. To reflect the uncertainties in the CSI process, the Monte-Carlo Simulation (MCS) is conducted to explore the ranges of PLoT. By analyzing all the accumulated scores through the random sets, a spread of contaminant intrusion PLoT can then be identified in the network.

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The Impact of COVID-19 on Earnings Management in the Distribution and Service Industries

  • RYU, Haeyoung;CHAE, Soo-Joon
    • 유통과학연구
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    • 제20권4호
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    • pp.95-100
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    • 2022
  • Purpose: This study aimed to investigate whether distribution and service companies maintained their accounting information quality and provided reliable information despite the economic changes occurring after the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in Korea. The distribution industry has enjoyed increased demand as many companies expanded their untact distribution channels, including to online sales. However, as the pandemic drags on, their future prospects remain uncertain. Research design, data, and methodology: In this study, we define 2018-2019 as the "pre COVID-19 period" and 2020 as the "post COVID-19 period." An empirical analysis was performed using a regression model that includes POST, the independent variable, indicating the post COVID-19 period, and discretionary accruals(DA), a proxy for earnings management, as a dependent variable. Results: The analysis shows that the coefficient of POST is significantly positive (+) for the dependent variable DA. This finding suggests that distribution and service companies engaged in more earnings management during the post COVID-19 period than during the pre COVID-19 period, indicating their awareness of the uncertainty of future business performance as the pandemic persists. An additional analysis confirmed that smaller companies with fewer stakeholders and higher information asymmetry tend to engage more in earnings management than larger companies.

Climate change impact assessment of agricultural reservoir using system dynamics model: focus on Seongju reservoir

  • Choi, Eunhyuk
    • 농업과학연구
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    • 제48권2호
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    • pp.311-331
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    • 2021
  • Climate change with extreme hydrological events has become a significant concern for agricultural water systems. Climate change affects not only irrigation availability but also agricultural water requirement. In response, adaptation strategies with soft and hard options have been considered to mitigate the impacts from climate change. However, their implementation has become progressively challenging and complex due to the interconnected impacts of climate change with socio-economic change in agricultural circumstances, and this can generate more uncertainty and complexity in the adaptive management of the agricultural water systems. This study was carried out for the agricultural water supply system in Seongju dam watershed in Seonju-gun, Gyeongbuk in South Korea. The first step is to identify system disturbances. Climate variation and socio-economic components with historical and forecast data were investigated Then, as the second step, problematic trends of the critical performance were identified for the historical and future climate scenarios. As the third step, a system structure was built with a dynamic hypothesis (causal loop diagram) to understand Seongju water system features and interactions with multiple feedbacks across system components in water, agriculture, and socio-economic sectors related to the case study water system. Then, as the fourth step, a mathematical SD (system dynamics) model was developed based on the dynamic hypothesis, including sub-models related to dam reservoir, irrigation channel, irrigation demand, farming income, and labor force, and the fidelity of the SD model to the Seongju water system was checked.

Locally Initiating Line-Based Object Association in Large Scale Multiple Cameras Environment

  • Cho, Shung-Han;Nam, Yun-Young;Hong, Sang-Jin;Cho, We-Duke
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • 제4권3호
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    • pp.358-379
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    • 2010
  • Multiple object association is an important capability in visual surveillance system with multiple cameras. In this paper, we introduce locally initiating line-based object association with the parallel projection camera model, which can be applicable to the situation without the common (ground) plane. The parallel projection camera model supports the camera movement (i.e. panning, tilting and zooming) by using the simple table based compensation for non-ideal camera parameters. We propose the threshold distance based homographic line generation algorithm. This takes account of uncertain parameters such as transformation error, height uncertainty of objects and synchronization issue between cameras. Thus, the proposed algorithm associates multiple objects on demand in the surveillance system where the camera movement dynamically changes. We verify the proposed method with actual image frames. Finally, we discuss the strategy to improve the association performance by using the temporal and spatial redundancy.

불확실성을 고려한 장기 전원 포트폴리오의 평가 (The Evaluation of Long-Term Generation Portfolio Considering Uncertainty)

  • 정재우;민대기
    • 한국경영과학회지
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    • 제37권3호
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    • pp.135-150
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    • 2012
  • This paper presents a portfolio model for a long-term power generation mix problem. The proposed portfolio model evaluates generation mix by considering the tradeoffs between the expected cost for power generation and its variability. Unlike conventional portfolio models measuring variance, we introduce Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) in designing the variability with aims to considering events that are enormously expensive but are rare such as nuclear power plant accidents. Further, we consider uncertainties associated with future electricity demand, fuel prices and their correlations, and capital costs for power plant investments. To obtain an objective generation by each energy source, we employ the sample average approximation method that approximates the stochastic objective function by taking the average of large sample values so that provides asymptotic convergence of optimal solutions. In addition, the method includes Monte Carlo simulation techniques in generating random samples from multivariate distributions. Applications of the proposed model and method are demonstrated through a case study of an electricity industry with nuclear, coal, oil (OCGT), and LNG (CCGT) in South Korea.

재난 현장의 구호 자원 운송 차량 경로에 관한 연구 (A Research on the Vehicle Routing Problem in the Disaster Scene)

  • 한수민;정한일;김기동;박진우
    • 경영과학
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    • 제33권1호
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    • pp.101-117
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    • 2016
  • In 2000s, incidence of natural disaster is increasing continuously. Therefore, the necessity of research on the effective disaster response is emphasized. Korea is not safe from natural disaster. Natural disasters like torrential downpours, typhoons have occurred more frequently than before. In addition disasters like droughts and MERS has also occurred. Therefore, needs for effective systems and algorithms to respond disaster are increased. This study covers the vehicle routing problem for effective logistics in disaster situations caused by natural disasters. The emergency vehicle route problem has different property from the general vehicle route problem. It has the property of the importance of deadline, the uncertain and dynamic demand information, and the uncertainty in information transfer. In this study, a solution that focused on the importance of deadline. In this study, the heuristic solution using the genetic algorithm are suggested. Finally the simulation experiment which reflects the actual environment are conducted to verify the performance of the solution.

상수관망의 통합신뢰도 산정을 위한 해석모형의 개발 (Development of the Computational Model to Evaluate Integrated Reliability in Water Distribution Network)

  • 박재홍;한건연
    • 한국수자원학회논문집
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    • 제36권1호
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    • pp.105-115
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    • 2003
  • 본 연구에서는 상수관망의 신뢰도해석을 위해 수리적 신뢰도와 기계적 신뢰도를 통합적으로 해석할 수 있는 통합신뢰도 해석모형을 개발하였다. 수리적 신뢰도는 불화실성을 가진 변수들에 대하여 적절한 변동계수를 가진 확률 분포형을 적용시켜 임의변수로 고려하였고 기계적 신뢰도는 관망의 각 구성물에 대해 순차적 고장을 발생시켜 각 고장에 대한 영항을 해석하여 신뢰도를 산정하였다. 덕 연구모형을 실제관망에 대한 적용결과 본 모형은 실제관망에 대한 불확실한 요소를 고려한 신뢰도를 잘 모의하고 있었다. 앞으로 신뢰성있는 상수관망 설계 및 기존 관망의 신뢰도 판정에 본 모형이 적용된다면 기계적 및 수리적으로 객관성이 있는 신뢰도를 가진 상수관망의 건설 및 유지관리가 될 수 있다고 판단된다.