Korean Journal of Agricultural Science (농업과학연구)

Institute of Agricultural Science, CNU (충남대학교 농업과학연구소)
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Climate change impact assessment of agricultural reservoir using system dynamics model: focus on Seongju reservoir

  • Choi, Eunhyuk (Rural Research Institute, Korea Rural Community Corporation)
  • Received : 2021.03.09
  • Accepted : 2021.05.24
  • Published : 2021.06.01
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Abstract

Climate change with extreme hydrological events has become a significant concern for agricultural water systems. Climate change affects not only irrigation availability but also agricultural water requirement. In response, adaptation strategies with soft and hard options have been considered to mitigate the impacts from climate change. However, their implementation has become progressively challenging and complex due to the interconnected impacts of climate change with socio-economic change in agricultural circumstances, and this can generate more uncertainty and complexity in the adaptive management of the agricultural water systems. This study was carried out for the agricultural water supply system in Seongju dam watershed in Seonju-gun, Gyeongbuk in South Korea. The first step is to identify system disturbances. Climate variation and socio-economic components with historical and forecast data were investigated Then, as the second step, problematic trends of the critical performance were identified for the historical and future climate scenarios. As the third step, a system structure was built with a dynamic hypothesis (causal loop diagram) to understand Seongju water system features and interactions with multiple feedbacks across system components in water, agriculture, and socio-economic sectors related to the case study water system. Then, as the fourth step, a mathematical SD (system dynamics) model was developed based on the dynamic hypothesis, including sub-models related to dam reservoir, irrigation channel, irrigation demand, farming income, and labor force, and the fidelity of the SD model to the Seongju water system was checked.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

본 연구는 농림축산식품부의 재원으로 농림식품기술기획평가원의 농업기반 및 재해대응 기술개발사업의 지원을 받아 연구되었습니다(121032-3).

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