• Title/Summary/Keyword: uncertainty importance

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Improved Solutions for Honorable Failure Policy on National R&D Projects (국가연구개발사업 성실실패제도 개선방안)

  • Lee, Jung Soo;Kil, Boo Jong;Jeon, Heesung
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.346-366
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    • 2013
  • The importance of challenging and creative research recently has been increased, risk-taking on the R&D is being needed. The settlement of policy is urgently required in order to protect the result of high-risk research. 'Honorable Failure' is statutory by 'Regulation on the National R&D Program management' to resolve this issue, however its standards and detailed guides are not provided enough or the ministerial funding agencies apply different guidelines, making the researchers on the field confused by far. Therefore this paper reviews the current state of 'Honorable Failure Policy'(saving the 'failed' research despite of its adequate process or performance) and compares with the cases of major countries, then points out following issues; the uncertainty of the criterion, the difference of the main agent performing evaluation, admission of the failure, the utilization of the result of 'failed' research, the vagueness of the range of sanctions and restriction, and the lack of method of inspection and prevention for repetitive failure of the research projects. Finally, this paper proposes the solutions for these issues to improve.

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Time-Series Prediction of Baltic Dry Index (BDI) Using an Application of Recurrent Neural Networks (Recurrent Neural Networks를 활용한 Baltic Dry Index (BDI) 예측)

  • Han, Min-Soo;Yu, Song-Jin
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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    • 2017.11a
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    • pp.50-53
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    • 2017
  • Not only growth of importance to understanding economic trends, but also the prediction to overcome the uncertainty is coming up for long-term maritime recession. This paper discussed about the prediction of BDI with artificial neural networks (ANN). ANN is one of emerging applications that can be the finest solution to the knotty problems that may not easy to achieve by humankind. Proposed a prediction by implementing neural networks that have recurrent architecture which are a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). And for the reason of comparison, trained Multi Layer Perceptron (MLP) from 2009.04.01 to 2017.07.31. Also made a comparison with conventional statistics, prediction tools; ARIMA. As a result, recurrent net, especially RNN outperformed and also could discover the applicability of LSTM to specific time-series (BDI).

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Effects of Two-dimensional Heat and Mass Transports on Condensational Growth of Soot Particles in a Tubular Coater (원형관 코팅장치에서 연소 입자의 응축성장에 미치는 2차원 열 및 물질전달의 영향)

  • Park, Sung Hoon
    • Particle and aerosol research
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.163-171
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    • 2013
  • Soot particles emitted from combustion processes are often coated by non-absorbing organic materials, which enhance the global warming effect of soot particles. It is of importance to study the condensation characteristics of soot particles experimentally and theoretically to reduce the uncertainty of the climate impact of soot particles. In this study, the condensational growth of soot particles in a tubular coater was modeled by a one-dimensional (1D) plug flow model and a two-dimensional (2D) laminar flow model. The effects of 2D heat and mass transports on the predicted particle growth were investigated. The temperature and coating material vapor concentration distributions in radial direction, which the 1D model could not accounted for, affected substantially the particle growth in the coater. Under the simulated conditions, the differences between the temperatures and vapor concentrations near the wall and at the tube center were large. The neglect of these variations by the 1D model resulted in a large error in modeling the mass transfer and aerosol dynamics occurring in the coater. The 1D model predicted the average temperature and vapor concentration quite accurately but overestimated the average diameter of the growing particles considerably. At the outermost grid, at which condensation begins earliest due to the lowest temperature and saturation vapor concentration, condensing vapor was exhausted rapidly because of the competition between condensations on the wall and on the particle surface, decreasing the growth rate. At the center of the tube, on the other hand, the growth rate was low due to high temperature and saturation vapor concentration. The effects of Brownian diffusion and thermophoresis were not high enough to transport the coating material vapor quickly from the tube center to the wall. The 1D model based on perfect radial mixing could not take into account this phenomenon, resulting in a much higher growth rate than what the 2D model predicted. The result of this study indicates that contrary to a previous report for a thermodenuder, 2D heat and mass transports must be taken into account to model accurately the condensational particle growth in a coater.

Competitive Advantage Strategy of Construction Duration by SWOT Analysis (SWOT 분석을 통한 건설기업의 공기경쟁력 강화 전략)

  • Kim, Sun-Kuk;Lee, Hyun-Soo;Ryu, Han-Guk
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.7 no.2 s.30
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    • pp.109-117
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    • 2006
  • Recent rapid changes such as construction market reduction, lowest bidding system of construction cost, five days per week system, and post-construction sale system are inevitably accelerating the competitiveness between construction companies. Those rapid changes of construction environment require construction companies, which are main participants of construction industry, to adapt to the changes and more to lead new construction environment. However, there are many construction uncertainties which could delay construction completion. Without the proper identification of construction uncertainties, structured strategy establishment and management of construction schedule, the competitive advantages of construction duration could not be made. Thus this paper limited the research boundary to construction duration competitiveness instead of general strategy establishment. Recognizing the importance of proper calculation of construction duration, requirements of construction duration reduction and limited researches related to construction schedule strategy, we established the 25 strategies for construction duration competitivenss by internal and external construction environment analysis and SWOT analysis, and then elicited the first considerations to accomplish the strategies through concensus of all the staffs by questionnaire, brainstroming and face-to-face interviews.

Ranking Decision on Assessment Indicator of Natural Resource Conservation Area Using Fuzzy Theory - Focused on Site Selection for the National Trust - (퍼지이론을 이용한 자연자원 보전지역의 평가지표 순위 결정 - 내셔널 트러스트 후보지 선정을 중심으로 -)

  • You Ju-Han;Jung Sung-Gwan;Park Kyung-Hun;Oh Jeong-Hak
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.33 no.4 s.111
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    • pp.97-107
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    • 2005
  • This study was carried out to construct accurate and scientific system of assessment indicators in selection of National Trust conservation areas, which was new concept of domestic environment movement and offer the raw data of new analytic method by introducing the fuzzy theory and weight for overcoming the uncertainty of ranking decision. To transform the Likert's scale granted to assessment indicators into the type of triangular fuzzy number(a, b, c), there was conversion to each minimum(a), median(b), and maximum(c) in applying membership function, and in using the center of gravity and eigenvalue, there was to decide the ranking. The rankings of converted values applied a mean importance and weight were confirmed that they were generally changed. Therefore, the ranking decision was better to accomplish objective and rational ranking decision by applying weight that was calculated in grouping of indicator than to judge the singular concept and to be useful in assessment of diverse National Trust site. In the future, because AHP, which was general method of calculating weight, was lacked, there was to understand the critical point to fix a pertinent weight, and to carry out the study applying engineering concept like fuzzy integral using $\lambda-measure$.

Anomaly Intrusion Detection using Fuzzy Membership Function and Neural Networks (퍼지 멤버쉽 함수와 신경망을 이용한 이상 침입 탐지)

  • Cha, Byung-Rae
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartC
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    • v.11C no.5
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    • pp.595-604
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    • 2004
  • By the help of expansion of computer network and rapid growth of Internet, the information infrastructure is now able to provide a wide range of services. Especially open architecture - the inherent nature of Internet - has not only got in the way of offering QoS service, managing networks, but also made the users vulnerable to both the threat of backing and the issue of information leak. Thus, people recognized the importance of both taking active, prompt and real-time action against intrusion threat, and at the same time, analyzing the similar patterns of in-trusion already known. There are now many researches underway on Intrusion Detection System(IDS). The paper carries research on the in-trusion detection system which hired supervised learning algorithm and Fuzzy membership function especially with Neuro-Fuzzy model in order to improve its performance. It modifies tansigmoid transfer function of Neural Networks into fuzzy membership function, so that it can reduce the uncertainty of anomaly intrusion detection. Finally, the fuzzy logic suggested here has been applied to a network-based anomaly intrusion detection system, tested against intrusion data offered by DARPA 2000 Intrusion Data Sets, and proven that it overcomes the shortcomings that Anomaly Intrusion Detection usually has.

A Study on the Relationship between Organizational Culture, Organizational Commitment and Organization Citizenship Behavior in hospitals (병원 조직문화 및 조직몰입과 조직시민행동 간의 관계에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Yong-Chul;Choi, Su-Hyung
    • Korea Journal of Hospital Management
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.1-23
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    • 2002
  • D. W. Organ(1977) published a paper about the importance of Organizational Citizenship Behavior(OCB) in an organization. Since then, the studies of OCB have been continuously increased. As recent business environment has changed with rapidity and uncertainty, OCB for the improvement performance of organization should be more emphasized. Role behaviors of organization are divided into two parts such as in-role behavior and extra-role behavior. In recent, although the researches about extra-role behavior have been studied, they are still not sufficient. This study attempted to examine relationships between organizational culture, organizational commitment and organizational citizenship behavior, Sample was 193 employee engaged in hospitals of Pusan. In this study I chose four factor(affective, conservative, task and innovative culture) of organizational culture and three factors (affective, continuous and normative commitment) of organizational commitment and five factors(altruism, conscientiousness, courtesy, civic virtue and sportsmanship) with regard to organization citizenship behavior. The major findings of the empirical research are as follows ; 1. The Causal relation of dimensions of organizational culture and dimensions of OCB. 1) Affective culture has significant impact on courtesy, civic virtue of OCB. 2) Conservative culture has no significant impact on all of OCB. 3) Task culture has significant impact on conscientiousness, civic virtue, sportsmanship of OCB. 4) Innovative culture has no significant impact on courtesy, civic virtue of OCB. 2. The Causal relation of dimensions of organizational commitment and dimensions of OCB. 1) Affective commitment has significant impact on all of OCB. 2) Continuous commitment has no significant impact on all of OCB. 3) Normative commitment has significant impact on courtesy, civic virtue of OCB. In brief, though this study has several limitations in research design and methods, the results suggest that organizational culture of hospitals and organizational comitment of hospitals shows a strong relationship to the organization citizenship behavior.

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Examining the Influence of Entrepreneurship on Innovation Activities and Performance with the Mediating Role of Technological Innovation (기업가 정신이 기술혁신과 혁신성과에 미치는 영향 및 기술혁신의 매개역할)

  • Ju, Ki-Jung;Park, Byeonghwa
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.21-37
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    • 2015
  • Entrepreneurship and innovation are highlighted as a way to overcome limitations and risk factors caused by today's uncertain business environment. As the uncertainty in the business environment increases, organizations are required to adapt to ever changing business dynamics. For this adaptation, entrepreneurship and innovation are crucial factors. This study proposes a model to explain a structural relationship between entrepreneurship, technological innovation, and innovation performance. The unit of analysis focus is small and medium-sized businesses. Empirical results show that there are positive causal relationships from entrepreneurship to technological innovation, and from technological innovation to innovation performance. Additionally, no direct relationship from entrepreneurship to innovation performance can be achieved through innovation activities such as technological innovation. This study points out the importance of entrepreneurship and technological innovation, and suggests that entrepreneurship along with technological innovation should be internalized as business practices leading to increased performance.

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Development of a Probabilistic Safety Assessment Framework for an Interim Dry Storage Facility Subjected to an Aircraft Crash Using Best-Estimate Structural Analysis

  • Almomani, Belal;Jang, Dongchan;Lee, Sanghoon;Kang, Hyun Gook
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.49 no.2
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    • pp.411-425
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    • 2017
  • Using a probabilistic safety assessment, a risk evaluation framework for an aircraft crash into an interim spent fuel storage facility is presented. Damage evaluation of a detailed generic cask model in a simplified building structure under an aircraft impact is discussed through a numerical structural analysis and an analytical fragility assessment. Sequences of the impact scenario are shown in a developed event tree, with uncertainties considered in the impact analysis and failure probabilities calculated. To evaluate the influence of parameters relevant to design safety, risks are estimated for three specification levels of cask and storage facility structures. The proposed assessment procedure includes the determination of the loading parameters, reference impact scenario, structural response analyses of facility walls, cask containment, and fuel assemblies, and a radiological consequence analysis with dose-risk estimation. The risk results for the proposed scenario in this study are expected to be small relative to those of design basis accidents for best-estimated conservative values. The importance of this framework is seen in its flexibility to evaluate the capability of the facility to withstand an aircraft impact and in its ability to anticipate potential realistic risks; the framework also provides insight into epistemic uncertainty in the available data and into the sensitivity of the design parameters for future research.

Study on Representation of Pollutants Delivery Process using Watershed Model (수질오염총량관리를 위한 유역모형의 유달 과정 재현방안 연구)

  • Hwang, Ha Sun;Rhee, Han Pil;Lee, Sung Jun;Ahn, Ki Hong;Park, Ji Hyung;Kim, Yong Seok
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.32 no.6
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    • pp.589-599
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    • 2016
  • Implemented since 2004, TPLC (Total Pollution Load Control) is the most powerful water-quality protection program. Recently, uncertainty of prediction using steady state model increased due to changing water environments, and necessity of a dynamic state model, especially the watershed model, gained importance. For application of watershed model on TPLC, it needs to be feasible to adjust the relationship (mass-balance) between discharged loads estimated by technical guidance, and arrived loads based on observed data at the watershed outlet. However, at HSPF, simulation is performed as a semi-distributed model (lumped model) in a sub-basin. Therefore, if the estimated discharged loads from individual pollution source is directly entered as the point source data into the RCHRES module (without delivery ratio), the pollutant load is not reduced properly until it reaches the outlet of the sub-basin. The hypothetic RCHRES generated using the HSPF BMP Reach Toolkit was applied to solve this problem (although this is not the original application of Reach Toolkit). It was observed that the impact of discharged load according to spatial distribution of pollution sources in a sub-basin, could be expressed by multi-segmentation of the hypothetical RCHRES. Thus, the discharged pollutant load could be adjusted easily by modification of the infiltration rate or characteristics of flow control devices.