• Title/Summary/Keyword: transportation demand forecasting

Search Result 126, Processing Time 0.026 seconds

Development of A Direct Demand Estimation Model for Forecasting of Railroad Traffic Demand (철도수요예측을 위한 직접수요모형 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Hyo-Jong;Jung, Chan-Mook
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
    • /
    • 2010.06a
    • /
    • pp.2166-2178
    • /
    • 2010
  • The Korea Transportation Database (KTDB) is used to obtain data on the origin and destination (OD) of inter-city travel, which are currently used in railroad planning when estimating traffic demand. The KTDB employs the trip assignment method, whereby the total traffic volume researched for inter-city travel in Korea is divided into road, rail and air traffic, etc. However, as regards rail travel, the railroad stations are not identical to the existing zones or the connector has not been established because there are several stations in one zone as such, certain problems with the applicable methods have been identified. Therefore, estimates of the volume of railroad traffic using the KTDB display low reliability compared to other modes of transportation. In this study, these problems are reviewed and analyzed, and use of the aggregate model method to estimate the direct demand for rail travel is proposed in order to improve the reliability of estimation. In addition, a method of minimizing error in traffic demand estimation for the railroad field is proposed via an analysis of the relationship between the aggregate model and various social-economic indicators including population, distances, numbers of industrial employees, numbers of automobiles, and the extension of roads between cities.

  • PDF

An Application of GSIS Technique for Transportation Planning Model (교통계획모형에 있어서 GSIS의 적용기법)

  • Yang, In-Tae;Choi, Young-Jae
    • Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
    • /
    • v.1 no.2 s.2
    • /
    • pp.105-112
    • /
    • 1993
  • The conventional method for solving transportation problems were mainly based on numerical methods, where the understanding of outputs is not easy. Some difficulties come from the seperation of three key steps-the preparation of input for transportation traffic simulation, and model output interpretation. GSIS can help to eliminate some of thoses difficulties by combining graphics, database, and transportation plaining models. As pilot study, this study shows an application of Geovision GSIS to TRANPLAN transportation planning model that is based on four-step travel demand forecasting procedure. Accrued benefits and procedure are presented.

  • PDF

OPTIMAL DESIGN OF BATCH-STORAGE NETWORK APPLICABLE TO SUPPLY CHAIN

  • Yi, Gyeong-beom;Lee, Euy-Soo;Lee, In-Beom
    • 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
    • /
    • 2004.08a
    • /
    • pp.1859-1864
    • /
    • 2004
  • An effective methodology is reported for the optimal design of multisite batch production/transportation and storage networks under uncertain demand forecasting. We assume that any given storage unit can store one material type which can be purchased from suppliers, internally produced, internally consumed, transported to or from other plant sites and/or sold to customers. We further assume that a storage unit is connected to all processing and transportation stages that consume/produce or move the material to which that storage unit is dedicated. Each processing stage transforms a set of feedstock materials or intermediates into a set of products with constant conversion factors. A batch transportation process can transfer one material or multiple materials at once between plant sites. The objective for optimization is to minimize the probability averaged total cost composed of raw material procurement, processing setup, transportation setup and inventory holding costs as well as the capital costs of processing stages and storage units. A novel production and inventory analysis formulation, the PSW(Periodic Square Wave) model, provides useful expressions for the upper/lower bounds and average level of the storage inventory. The expressions for the Kuhn-Tucker conditions of the optimization problem can be reduced to two sub-problems. The first yields analytical solutions for determining lot sizes while the second is a separable concave minimization network flow subproblem whose solution yields the average material flow rates through the networks for the given demand forecast scenario. The result of this study will contribute to the optimal design and operation of large-scale supply chain system.

  • PDF

A Study on Application of GSIS for Transportation Planning and Analysis of Traffic Volume (GSIS를 이용한 교통계획과 교통량분석에 관한 연구)

  • Choi, Jae-Hwa;Park, Hee-Ju
    • Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
    • /
    • v.1 no.1 s.1
    • /
    • pp.117-125
    • /
    • 1993
  • GSIS is a system that contains spatially referenced data that can be analyzed and converted to information for a specific set of purpose, or application. The key feature of a GSIS is the analysis of data to produce new information. The current emphasis in the transportation is to implement GSIS in conjunction with real time systems Requirements for a transportation GSIS are very different from the traditional GSIS software that has been designed for environmental and natural resource applications. A transportation GSIS may need to include the ability for franc volume, forecasting, pavement management A regional transportation planning model is actually a set of models that are used to inventory and then forecast a region's population, employment, income, housing and the demand of automobile and transit in a region. The data such as adminstration bound, m of landuse, road networks, location of schools, offices with populations are used in this paper. Many of these data are used for analyzing of traffic volume, traffic demand, time of mad construction using GSIS.

  • PDF

The Development Trend of Transportation Information System through Transportation Card Data (교통카드자료를 활용한 교통정보시스템 발전 방향)

  • Kim, Se-Won;Sohn, Moo-Sung;Min, Jae-Hong;Oh, Seog-Mun
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
    • /
    • 2011.05a
    • /
    • pp.1835-1847
    • /
    • 2011
  • After conducting demonstration of transportation card for bus from Godeok-dong to Sangil-dong in 1996, due to continuously support for public transportation, the transportation card utilization of metropolitan public transportation passengers is currently going beyond 90%. In the current situation, transportation information system is mainly focused on road operation and control, offer of real time information and research of transportation information system using transportation card data which is differentiated by previous transportation information system is needed to study. This paper compare and analyze transportation information system, which is being used to each country, based on foreign examples of activating use of transportation card then introduce figure of advanced transportation information system which provide decision making feature for improving policy and institution of public transportation based on transportation card data, scientific analysis of passenger information, information of demand forecasting, variation and so on for constructing new route.

  • PDF

Estimation of Freight Trip Generation Rates based on Commodity Flow Survey in Korea

  • Park, Minchoul;Sung, Hongmo;Chung, Sungbong
    • International Journal of Railway
    • /
    • v.5 no.4
    • /
    • pp.139-143
    • /
    • 2012
  • In Korea, almost 700 industrial parks are under operation. Generally, industrial parks consist of national industrial parks and local industrial parks which are managed by a central government and by local governments respectively. The developing countries such as Korea, China and Vietnam etc. have constructed many industrial parks, which result in the change of land use pattern and also affect future trip demands. Therefore, in estimating traffic demands, it is very important to consider the industrial park development. This study aims to improve the methodology in estimating a freight trip generation rate with the data based on a nationwide commodity freight survey. The result showed that it is desirable to apply freight trip generation rate by the industry sector in estimating freight trip generations and using the production area of firm as an indicator. Specially, the reliability of the rates through a survey could be made sure because a sample rate based on firms in industrial parks was over 25% and the response rate was over 67%. The sample rate and response rate are very superior as compared to surveys conducted in many other countries. Because industrial parks have significant effects on forecasting transportation demand in pre-feasibility studies of transport and logistics projects, it is expected that the accuracy of freight trip demands would be improved through the results of this study.

Simulation Anaysis for Determining Location and Size of Logistic Network (물류 네트워크 구축을 위한 입지 및 규모 선정을 위한 시뮬레이션 분석)

  • Jeong, Suk-Jae;Lee, Jae-Jun;Kim, Kyung-Sup
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
    • /
    • v.14 no.3
    • /
    • pp.67-77
    • /
    • 2005
  • Logistics network of the enterprise is defined to determine the optimal node and link considering the production, inventory and transportation based on the demand forecasting. This study consider the optimal logistics network of A painter company which maintain the existing transportation network and plan to relocate its plants and build new distribution centers. For this, we design possible alternative scenarios and install the simulation models for analysis of each scenario. The result of simulation will help the proper logistic network and determining the size of distribution center further.

  • PDF

A Study of Rational Travel Impact Assessment by Improving the Method of Travel Demand Forecasting (교통영향평가 합리화를 위한 교통량 예측기법 연구)

  • 안정근;이재춘
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
    • /
    • v.16 no.3
    • /
    • pp.37-45
    • /
    • 1998
  • 교통영향평가는 1985년 서울시에서 실시된 이후 사업 시행자에 의해 개발지 주변 도로 교통상황을 개선하는데 크게 기여하여 왔으며 향후 이러한 교통유발 원인자 부담원칙 에 의한 교통개선체제는 지방 자치화 시대를 맞이하여 계속 유지될 전망이다. 하지만 교통 영향 평가시 도로개선의 판단 기중이 되는 개발에 따른 교통발생 예측량이 평가자에 따라 상이한 결과가 나타나고 이에 따른 상이한 주변 도로 서비스수준(LOS)이 도출되어 합리적 교통처리 방안 제시에 문제가 되고 있다. 이러한 문제는 광역적 교통량 예측 프로그램 이 용, 상이한 통행 발생원단위 사용, 그리고 일률적 교통량 예측범위에 기인한다. 따라서 본 연구는 교통영향 평가시 국내와 미국의 교통량 예측 방법 비교·분석을 통해 합리적 교통량 예측방법을 제시하였다.

  • PDF

Estimating Travel Demand by Using a Spatial-Temporal Activity Presence-Based Approach (시.공간 활동인구 추정에 의한 통행수요 예측)

  • Eom, Jin-Ki
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
    • /
    • v.26 no.5
    • /
    • pp.163-174
    • /
    • 2008
  • The conventional four-step travel demand model is still widely used as the state-of-practice in most transportation planning agencies even though it does not provide reliable estimates of travel demand. In order to improve the accuracy of travel demand estimation, implementing an alternative approach would be critical as much as acquiring reliable socioeconomic and travel data. Recently, the role of travel demand model is diverse to satisfy the needs of microscopic analysis regarding various policies of travel demand management and traffic operations. In this context, the activity-based approach for travel demand estimation is introduced and a case study of developing a spatial-temporal activity presence-based approach that estimates travel demand through forecasting number of people present at certain place and time is accomplished. Results show that the spatial-temporal activity presence-based approach provides reliable estimates of both number of people present and trips actually people made. It is expected that the proposed approach will provide better estimates and be used in not only long-term transport plans but short-term transport impact studies with respect to various transport policies. Finally, in order to introduce the spatial-temporal activity presence-based approach, the data such as activity-based travel diary and land use based on geographic information system are essential.

Development of Demand Forecasting Model for Public Bicycles in Seoul Using GRU (GRU 기법을 활용한 서울시 공공자전거 수요예측 모델 개발)

  • Lee, Seung-Woon;Kwahk, Kee-Young
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
    • /
    • v.28 no.4
    • /
    • pp.1-25
    • /
    • 2022
  • After the first Covid-19 confirmed case occurred in Korea in January 2020, interest in personal transportation such as public bicycles not public transportation such as buses and subways, increased. The demand for 'Ddareungi', a public bicycle operated by the Seoul Metropolitan Government, has also increased. In this study, a demand prediction model of a GRU(Gated Recurrent Unit) was presented based on the rental history of public bicycles by time zone(2019~2021) in Seoul. The usefulness of the GRU method presented in this study was verified based on the rental history of Around Exit 1 of Yeouido, Yeongdengpo-gu, Seoul. In particular, it was compared and analyzed with multiple linear regression models and recurrent neural network models under the same conditions. In addition, when developing the model, in addition to weather factors, the Seoul living population was used as a variable and verified. MAE and RMSE were used as performance indicators for the model, and through this, the usefulness of the GRU model proposed in this study was presented. As a result of this study, the proposed GRU model showed higher prediction accuracy than the traditional multi-linear regression model and the LSTM model and Conv-LSTM model, which have recently been in the spotlight. Also the GRU model was faster than the LSTM model and the Conv-LSTM model. Through this study, it will be possible to help solve the problem of relocation in the future by predicting the demand for public bicycles in Seoul more quickly and accurately.