• 제목/요약/키워드: traffic accident estimation

검색결과 70건 처리시간 0.022초

Study on Estimation of Unmanned Enforcement Equipment Installation Criteria and Proper Installation Number (무인교통단속장비 설치 판단 기준 및 설치대수 산정 연구)

  • So, Hyung-Jun;Kim, Yong-Man;Kim, Nam-Seon;Hwang, Jae-Seong;Lee, Choul-Ki
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • 제19권6호
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    • pp.49-60
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    • 2020
  • The number of traffic control equipment installed to prevent traffic accidents increases every year due to continuous installation by the National Police Agency and local governments. However, it is installed based on qualitative judgment rather than engineering analysis results. The purpose of this study was to present additional installations in the future by presenting the installation criteria considering the severity of accidents for each road type and calculating the appropriate number of installations. ARI indicators that can indicate the severity of traffic accidents were developed, and road types were classified through analysis of variance and cluster analysis, and accident information by road type was analyzed to derive ARI of clusters with high traffic accident severity. The ARI values required to determine the installation of equipment for each road type were presented, and 5,244 additional installation points were analyzed.

Developing a Traffic Accident Prediction Model for Freeways (고속도로 본선에서의 교통사고 예측모형 개발)

  • Mun, Sung-Ra;Lee, Young-Ihn;Lee, Soo-Beom
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • 제30권2호
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    • pp.101-116
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    • 2012
  • Accident prediction models have been utilized to predict accident possibilities in existing or projected freeways and to evaluate programs or policies for improving safety. In this study, a traffic accident prediction model for freeways was developed for the above purposes. When selecting variables for the model, the highest priority was on the ease of both collecting data and applying them into the model. The dependent variable was set as the number of total accidents and the number of accidents including casualties in the unit of IC(or JCT). As a result, two models were developed; the overall accident model and the casualty-related accident model. The error structure adjusted to each model was the negative binomial distribution and the Poisson distribution, respectively. Among the two models, a more appropriate model was selected by statistical estimation. Major nine national freeways were selected and five-year dada of 2003~2007 were utilized. Explanatory variables should take on either a predictable value such as traffic volumes or a fixed value with respect to geometric conditions. As a result of the Maximum Likelihood estimation, significant variables of the overall accident model were found to be the link length between ICs(or JCTs), the daily volumes(AADT), and the ratio of bus volume to the number of curved segments between ICs(or JCTs). For the casualty-related accident model, the link length between ICs(or JCTs), the daily volumes(AADT), and the ratio of bus volumes had a significant impact on the accident. The likelihood ratio test was conducted to verify the spatial and temporal transferability for estimated parameters of each model. It was found that the overall accident model could be transferred only to the road with four or more than six lanes. On the other hand, the casualty-related accident model was transferrable to every road and every time period. In conclusion, the model developed in this study was able to be extended to various applications to establish future plans and evaluate policies.

A Study on Estimation of Road and Transportation Facility Improvement Direction Using Random Forest (랜덤 포레스트를 활용한 도로 및 교통시설 개선방향 추정 연구)

  • Hwang, Jae-seong;Kim, Do-kyeong;Kim, Nam-sun;Lee, Choul-ki
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • 제20권6호
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    • pp.37-46
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    • 2021
  • Government agencies, such as police and local governments, strive to prevent traffic hazards and create a comfortable road environment by pormoting transportation and road facilities. To this end, roads and transportation facilities are enhanced and adjusted, and improvement projects in areas with frequent traffic accidents are carried out. Usually, improvement projects in areas with frequent traffic accidents vary by projects and region. Moreover, these projects are carried out under the supervision of a person in charge and related parties. Hence, civil complaints and subjectivity are reflected in deriving priorities for the improvement projects, limiting the efficiency of the project. To this end, a study was conducted to estimate the direction of improvement of the project target site. This study comprehensively considered road, traffic, and accident conditions of representative projects with high effectiveness in handling traffic accidents. The results of the study state that the accuracy of estimating the improvement project was around 88%. In addition, the study found that there was a strong relationship between traffic volume, accident rate, and accident severity in estimating the improvement direction.

A Study of the Estimation of Additional Costs on the Car Accident for Senior People Due to Interaction Effects (상호작용효과에 의한 고령자 사고 추가발생비용 추정에 대한 연구)

  • Yoon, Byoung-Jo
    • Journal of Urban Science
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    • 제6권2호
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    • pp.59-72
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    • 2017
  • Studies on the calculation of accident costs include the approach on calculating damage costs covering all accidents regardless of first or secondary party and the one calculating damage costs generated by a single victim. These two approaches have a limitation of considering a subject for costs analysis as a single entity. In addition, research on estimating the interaction effects caused in the relationship between diverse traffic accident features and factors remains inadequate since most studies focused on calculating costs incurred in a single entity such as a victim, damaged building, or social organization in charge of managing car accident. This study intends to identify the expected range of old age where a specific interaction effect would remain, compare accidents between old age section and the entire age section, and discover an exogenous variable to be applied in accident drop effects in senior people and reduced benefits by calculating and testing additional accident costs in case the first party and the second party all pertain to the senior age section. By classifying the entire accidents caused by old drivers according to the types of cars, significant coefficients representing the influence that affects car accidents according to the characteristics are calculated and set them as the representative variables by selecting top variable in accordance with from low to high order. Furthermore, characteristics on five age groups such as a group of over 65 and less than 70, a group of over 70 and less than 75, a group of over 75 and less than 80, a group of over 80 and less than 85, and a group of over 85 are elicited and compared them with these preselected accident characteristics variables, thereby identifying what changing effects come out.

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Experimental Investigation of Macroscopic Analysis of Traffic Safety Using Meta Analysis Focused on Busan Metropolitan City (메타분석을 이용한 교통안전성의 거시적 분석에 대한 실험적 고찰 : 부산광역시를 중심으로)

  • Park, Jongseo;Oh, Yun Pyo;Kim, Hoe Kyoung;Ahn, Woosung
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • 제35권6호
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    • pp.1339-1345
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    • 2015
  • Korean government annually estimates and reports the traffic safety index to evaluate the traffic safety of 228 Gu Gun. However, since the traffic safety index is derived from the spatially macroscopic perspective based on collected relative data, there are a couple of problems such as inability to investigate the individual traffic accidents on the spot, insecurity of accuracy and reliability of traffic safety index estimation method, and absence of establishing temporal relationship of traffic accidents. Thus, this study investigated temporal traffic safety in macroscopic manner for Gu Gun in Busan depending on the installation of the traffic safety facility (i.e., urban median), employing meta analysis. As a result, all Gu Gun in Busan except Saha, Buk, Dong, and Busanjin experienced more traffic accidents after installing the urban median, indicating that there are more rooms for improvement of macroscopic traffic safety evaluation.

Estimation of Vehicle Speed using Skid Mark (스키드 마크를 이용한 자동차 속도 추정)

  • Hong, Yu-Sik;Han, Chang-Pyeong
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems Conference
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    • 한국퍼지및지능시스템학회 2005년도 추계학술대회 학술발표 논문집 제15권 제2호
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    • pp.471-474
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    • 2005
  • For the purpose of objective and scientific inspection, traffic accidents should be appraised and inspected by righteous material evidences, computer simulation, and studies such as automobile engineering, traveling and collision accident dynamics, road and traffic engineering. In this paper, it displays the results of studying cases with the reasons of traffic accidents by analyzing and studying automobile kinetics, real traffic accidents and the results of in scientific and objective ways. In this paper, it is proved that with compared by dry and wet road surface condition, the transient brake time of wet condition is longer than dry road condition. Moreover, compared with unpacked road condition and packed road condition. unpacked road condition is shorter than packed road condition using computer simulation.

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Estimation of Acceleration Rates of Bus and Passenger car at Signalized Intersections (신호교차로에서 버스와 승용차의 발진가속도 측정)

  • Sim, Jae-Gwi;Lee, Sang-Su
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • 제27권6호
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    • pp.69-77
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    • 2009
  • The maximum and mean acceleration rates of vehicles estimated from the stopping conditions at signalized intersections provided an important clue to analyze traffic accident investigation when there was a dispute about legal liability such as first entering vehicle at the intersection, etc. This paper provided the maximum and mean acceleration rates of vehicles reflecting current traffic conditions in Korea through field studies. The mean acceleration rates of vehicles at stopline were measured up to 50m at the intervals of 5m. Results showed that the mean acceleration rate for bus was found to be $1.011^m/s^2{\sim}1.314^m/s^2$(0.1g~0.13g), and for passenger car was $1.548^m/s^2{\sim}1.818^m/s^2$(0.16g~0.19g). Statistical test results indicated that the observed differences from vehicle types and vehicle positions were statistically significant for the all ranges tested. It is expected that the accuracy of accident investigation practice will be improved by applying the acceleration rate values presented in this paper.

Improvement and Estimation of Effect for Speed Limit Tolerance (속도위반 단속 허용범위 개선안 제시 및 효과 추정)

  • Su-hwan Jeong;Kyeung-hee Han;Min-ho Lee;Choul-ki Lee
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • 제22권2호
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    • pp.164-181
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    • 2023
  • In a low speed limit environment, the speed limit tolerance of automated traffic enforcement devices is very high, which is one of the main factors for the low compliance rate. Therefore, in this study, we aimed to the improve the speed limit tolerance and to present a new standard. The effects of the operator and user errors that can cause speeding by drivers were analyzed. Based on the results of the analysis, an improvement of the tolerance was proposed by applying an error in the enforcement device and GPS speed. In addition, long-term expected safety effects such as the accident rate and severity were estimated from the operator's perspective when improving the tolerance. As a result of the estimation, the speed limit compliance rate, accident rate, and change rate of a number of severe accidents due to speed change, and pedestrian traffic accident mortality rate were all improved in all speed limit environments. The introduction of the proposed improvement is expected to improve road safety significantly.

Estimation of Benefits by Implementing Motor Vehicle Recall System (자동차 리콜제도의 시행에 따른 편익산정)

  • Sung, Nak-Moon;Oh, Jae-Hak;Oh, Ju-Taek
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • 제22권3호
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    • pp.59-67
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    • 2004
  • On January 1, 2003, the motor vehicle management system in Korea was transformed from government's vehicle type approval to manufacturer's self-certification. The motor vehicle recall system with self-certification is an essential mechanism to place the liability of the vehicle defects on manufacturers and hence protect consumers from automobile accidents. This study provides a methodology to measure the benefits of motor vehicle recall system in two categories: benefits of reduction in traffic accidents and benefits of severity reduction in traffic accident. Applying the proposed methodology, the benefits of implementing motor vehicle recall system in Korea were estimated. It was estimated that 745 traffic accidents, 12 fatal accidents, and 1473 injury accidents were respectively reduced in 2002 due to implementation of motor vehicle recall system.

A Development of Traffic Accident Estimation Model by Random Parameter Negative Binomial Model: Focus on Multilane Rural Highway (확률모수를 이용한 교통사고예측모형 개발: 지방부 다차로 도로를 중심으로)

  • Lim, Joon Beom;Lee, Soo Beom;Kim, Joon-Ki;Kim, Jeong Hyun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • 제32권6호
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    • pp.662-674
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    • 2014
  • In this study, accident frequency prediction models were constructed by collecting variables such as geometric structures, safety facilities, traffic volume and weather conditions, land use, highway design-satisfaction criteria along 780km (4,372 sections) of 4 lane-highways over 8 areas. As for models, a fixed parameter model and a random parameter model were employed. In the random parameter model, some influences were reversed as the range was expressed based on specific probability in the case of no fixed coefficients. In the fixed parameter model, the influences of independent variables on accident frequency were interpreted by using one coefficient, but in the random parameter model, more various interpretations were took place. In particular, curve radius, securement of shoulder lane, vertical grade design criteria satisfaction showed both positive and negative influence, according to specific probability. This means that there could be a reverse effect depending on the behavioral characteristics of drivers and the characteristics of highway sections. Rather, they influence the increase of accident frequency through the all sections.