• Korea Trade Review
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• v.41 no.4
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• pp.293-313
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• 2016

In the East Asian region, the advancement of trade networks is being facilitated, which turns out that economic integration across borders is being advanced due to FTA expansion, freedom of business activity growing through the reform of regulatory system in each country, and the processing of division of labor between processes across borders. Trans-Pacific Partnership(TPP), which is a U.S. led multilateral FTA, was signed on February 4 2016 in Auckland, New Zealand by 12 countries, by which changes in the East Asia Trade Network are also expected. For this reason, this study examined the impact that TPP would have on East Asia Trade Network. According to the result of this study, it was determined that TPP, as the regulation and system which will lead globalization of the supply chain, will change Supply Chain structure and result in a positive effect on Value Chain. This will have a significant impact on the East Asian trade network, and connect to enhanced competitiveness of participating enterprises. In addition, TPP seems to be the basis for realization of FTAAP(Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific) in the future, Therefore, Korea who has high Degree of Dependence upon Foreign Trade will have to pay make political effort to effectively deal with this changing trading environment in East Asia.

• International Commerce and Information Review
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• v.16 no.1
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• pp.207-226
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• 2014

A trade logistic informatization system under Open Systems Interconnection(OSI) includes a Port Management Information System, a Maritime Information System, and an Export and Import Batch Processing System. These have made a great contribution in the creation of more convenient and efficient management for the logistics industries in our country. However, this management is exposed to the technological problems of networks due to the explosive use in the sending and receiving of e-documents. For our country to grow as a center for port and logistic information, we should make the best use of the control systems using networks and further advance the export and import logistic systems. Therefore, this study aims to propose management systems for a composite network and an invasion detection system for efficient management of an e-trade network under OSI. Methods to rationalize the internal organizations such as coordination of organizations and human resources according to alloted network functions, commissions and arbitrary decisions, and reorganization of relevant regulations are not discussed here. This study looked at trade network under OSI from the aspect of practical business affairs and presented a basis for further interpretation.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.28 no.8
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• pp.21-30
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• 2023

The study proposes a model that utilizes Python-based deep learning text classification techniques to detect the legality of illegal financial advertising posts on the internet. These posts aim to promote unlawful financial activities, including the trading of bank accounts, credit card fraud, cashing out through mobile payments, and the sale of personal credit information. Despite the efforts of financial regulatory authorities, the prevalence of illegal financial activities persists. By applying this proposed model, the intention is to aid in identifying and detecting illicit content in internet-based illegal financial advertisining, thus contributing to the ongoing efforts to combat such activities. The study utilizes convolutional neural networks(CNN) and recurrent neural networks(RNN, LSTM, GRU), which are commonly used text classification techniques. The raw data for the model is based on manually confirmed regulatory judgments. By adjusting the hyperparameters of the Korean natural language processing and deep learning models, the study has achieved an optimized model with the best performance. This research holds significant meaning as it presents a deep learning model for discerning internet illegal financial advertising, which has not been previously explored. Additionally, with an accuracy range of 91.3% to 93.4% in a deep learning model, there is a hopeful anticipation for the practical application of this model in the task of detecting illicit financial advertisements, ultimately contributing to the eradication of such unlawful financial advertisements.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.147-168
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• 2017

There have been many studies on accurate stock market forecasting in academia for a long time, and now there are also various forecasting models using various techniques. Recently, many attempts have been made to predict the stock index using various machine learning methods including Deep Learning. Although the fundamental analysis and the technical analysis method are used for the analysis of the traditional stock investment transaction, the technical analysis method is more useful for the application of the short-term transaction prediction or statistical and mathematical techniques. Most of the studies that have been conducted using these technical indicators have studied the model of predicting stock prices by binary classification - rising or falling - of stock market fluctuations in the future market (usually next trading day). However, it is also true that this binary classification has many unfavorable aspects in predicting trends, identifying trading signals, or signaling portfolio rebalancing. In this study, we try to predict the stock index by expanding the stock index trend (upward trend, boxed, downward trend) to the multiple classification system in the existing binary index method. In order to solve this multi-classification problem, a technique such as Multinomial Logistic Regression Analysis (MLOGIT), Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA) or Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) we propose an optimization model using Genetic Algorithm as a wrapper for improving the performance of this model using Multi-classification Support Vector Machines (MSVM), which has proved to be superior in prediction performance. In particular, the proposed model named GA-MSVM is designed to maximize model performance by optimizing not only the kernel function parameters of MSVM, but also the optimal selection of input variables (feature selection) as well as instance selection. In order to verify the performance of the proposed model, we applied the proposed method to the real data. The results show that the proposed method is more effective than the conventional multivariate SVM, which has been known to show the best prediction performance up to now, as well as existing artificial intelligence / data mining techniques such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, and it is confirmed that the prediction performance is better than this. Especially, it has been confirmed that the 'instance selection' plays a very important role in predicting the stock index trend, and it is confirmed that the improvement effect of the model is more important than other factors. To verify the usefulness of GA-MSVM, we applied it to Korea's real KOSPI200 stock index trend forecast. Our research is primarily aimed at predicting trend segments to capture signal acquisition or short-term trend transition points. The experimental data set includes technical indicators such as the price and volatility index (2004 ~ 2017) and macroeconomic data (interest rate, exchange rate, S&P 500, etc.) of KOSPI200 stock index in Korea. Using a variety of statistical methods including one-way ANOVA and stepwise MDA, 15 indicators were selected as candidate independent variables. The dependent variable, trend classification, was classified into three states: 1 (upward trend), 0 (boxed), and -1 (downward trend). 70% of the total data for each class was used for training and the remaining 30% was used for verifying. To verify the performance of the proposed model, several comparative model experiments such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, ANN and MSVM were conducted. MSVM has adopted the One-Against-One (OAO) approach, which is known as the most accurate approach among the various MSVM approaches. Although there are some limitations, the final experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model, GA-MSVM, performs at a significantly higher level than all comparative models.

• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.13 no.12
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• pp.95-103
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• 2015

Purpose - The Visegrád Group cooperation of the past 14 years and that of V4 for the past 20 years has very important significance in the 21st century that must be maintained. This cooperation is valuable because of the trade routes that connect northern Poland to the Balkans in southern Croatia, which forman important basis for the resuscitation of Central European development. Currently, because of the European manufacturing base and industrial development, an energy supply and stable energy distribution networks have been introduced to secure cooperation and not competition within the Visegrád Group. This paper's research emphasizes the supply chain hub in neighboring countries. Although Central and Eastern European countries are small, they can provide a competitive response to Western Europe if they collaborate with the V4 group and other countries. Research design, data, and methodology - The subjects of this study in the Visegrád Group area are related to the development of Marketing and Distribution Sciences in the integrated European Union. In relation to the existing energy infrastructure, construction companies and financial institutions benefit from large-scale construction projects. Existing or new infrastructure facilities among the V4 must comply with the preconditions of regional energy markets. The network of emerging markets is changing into a European-logistics hub of new markets. This hub is closely associated with the economic development of European self-sustainment given that energy for distribution and consumption is imported from Russia. Therefore, this paper indirectly provides data on the regional distribution of energy as alternative bases in Europe for market expansion to Asia. Results - As a result, it appeared unlikely that V4 failed to implement homogeneity following the standards of Western Europe, as proposed by the EU. Throughout European history, individuals have gathered in Central Europe as an innovation hub. Currently, the region is being established independently for energy industrial development and not for tourism development, and is expected to play a central role in innovation and distribution consumption. Therefore, similar to Western and Northern Europe, V4 only appears to engage in distribution consumption on the basis of the identity that it formed for itself. This area is expected to either create a regional platform or a voice over a single economic policy. Conclusions - To this end, regarding the distribution of consumer groups within and outside the region, the V4 group is expected to be established for various policy areas and as a Eurasian outpost of trade and distribution logistics. In addition, given its purpose of engaging in the distribution of energy cooperation and trade clusters, the Visegrád Group will be in charge of the center axis of the bridge for distribution logistics trading partners from the Western Balkans to Caucasus and Eastern Europe. Thus, the Visegrád Group is entering this region as a platform for market share by enabling all or any investor can gain greater industrial benefits.

• The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
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• v.11 no.2
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• pp.204-208
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• 2018

In this paper, we proposed and evaluated the time series deep learning prediction model for learning fluctuation pattern of stock price. Recurrent neural networks, which can store previous information in the hidden layer, are suitable for the stock price prediction model, which is time series data. In order to maintain the long - term dependency by solving the gradient vanish problem in the recurrent neural network, we use LSTM with small memory inside the recurrent neural network. Furthermore, we proposed the stock price prediction model using bidirectional LSTM recurrent neural network in which the hidden layer is added in the reverse direction of the data flow for solving the limitation of the tendency of learning only based on the immediately preceding pattern of the recurrent neural network. In this experiment, we used the Tensorflow to learn the proposed stock price prediction model with stock price and trading volume input. In order to evaluate the performance of the stock price prediction, the mean square root error between the real stock price and the predicted stock price was obtained. As a result, the stock price prediction model using bidirectional LSTM recurrent neural network has improved prediction accuracy compared with unidirectional LSTM recurrent neural network.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.43 no.1
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• pp.72-78
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• 2019

The second-hand ship market provides immediate access to the freight market for shipping investors. When introducing second-hand vessels, the precise estimate of the price is crucial to the decision-making process because it directly affects the burden of capital cost to investors in the future. Previous studies on the second-hand market have mainly focused on the market efficiency. The number of papers on the estimation of second-hand vessel values is very limited. This study proposes an artificial neural network model that has not been attempted in previous studies. Six factors, freight, new-building price, orderbook, scrap price, age and vessel size, that affect the second-hand ship price were identified through literature review. The employed data is 366 real trading records of Panamax second-hand vessels reported to Clarkson between January 2016 and December 2018. Statistical filtering was carried out through correlation analysis and stepwise regression analysis, and three parameters, which are freight, age and size, were selected. Ten-fold cross validation was used to estimate the hyper-parameters of the artificial neural network model. The result of this study confirmed that the performance of the artificial neural network model is better than that of simple stepwise regression analysis. The application of the statistical verification process and artificial neural network model differentiates this paper from others. In addition, it is expected that a scientific model that satisfies both statistical rationality and accuracy of the results will make a contribution to real-life practices.

• Information Systems Review
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• v.22 no.1
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• pp.59-72
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• 2020

Artificial Intelligence is establishing itself as a familiar tool from an intractable concept. In this trend, financial sector is also looking to improve the problem of existing system which includes Fraud Detection System (FDS). It is being difficult to detect sophisticated cyber financial fraud using original rule-based FDS. This is because diversification of payment environment and increasing number of electronic financial transactions has been emerged. In order to overcome present FDS, this paper suggests 3 types of artificial intelligence models, Generative Adversarial Network (GAN), Deep Neural Network (DNN), and Convolutional Neural Network (CNN). GAN proves how data imbalance problem can be developed while DNN and CNN show how abnormal financial trading patterns can be precisely detected. In conclusion, among the experiments on this paper, WGAN has the highest improvement effects on data imbalance problem. DNN model reflects more effects on fraud classification comparatively.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.241-254
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• 2011

Financial time-series forecasting is one of the most important issues because it is essential for the risk management of financial institutions. Therefore, researchers have tried to forecast financial time-series using various data mining techniques such as regression, artificial neural networks, decision trees, k-nearest neighbor etc. Recently, support vector machines (SVMs) are popularly applied to this research area because they have advantages that they don't require huge training data and have low possibility of overfitting. However, a user must determine several design factors by heuristics in order to use SVM. For example, the selection of appropriate kernel function and its parameters and proper feature subset selection are major design factors of SVM. Other than these factors, the proper selection of instance subset may also improve the forecasting performance of SVM by eliminating irrelevant and distorting training instances. Nonetheless, there have been few studies that have applied instance selection to SVM, especially in the domain of stock market prediction. Instance selection tries to choose proper instance subsets from original training data. It may be considered as a method of knowledge refinement and it maintains the instance-base. This study proposes the novel instance selection algorithm for SVMs. The proposed technique in this study uses genetic algorithm (GA) to optimize instance selection process with parameter optimization simultaneously. We call the model as ISVM (SVM with Instance selection) in this study. Experiments on stock market data are implemented using ISVM. In this study, the GA searches for optimal or near-optimal values of kernel parameters and relevant instances for SVMs. This study needs two sets of parameters in chromosomes in GA setting : The codes for kernel parameters and for instance selection. For the controlling parameters of the GA search, the population size is set at 50 organisms and the value of the crossover rate is set at 0.7 while the mutation rate is 0.1. As the stopping condition, 50 generations are permitted. The application data used in this study consists of technical indicators and the direction of change in the daily Korea stock price index (KOSPI). The total number of samples is 2218 trading days. We separate the whole data into three subsets as training, test, hold-out data set. The number of data in each subset is 1056, 581, 581 respectively. This study compares ISVM to several comparative models including logistic regression (logit), backpropagation neural networks (ANN), nearest neighbor (1-NN), conventional SVM (SVM) and SVM with the optimized parameters (PSVM). In especial, PSVM uses optimized kernel parameters by the genetic algorithm. The experimental results show that ISVM outperforms 1-NN by 15.32%, ANN by 6.89%, Logit and SVM by 5.34%, and PSVM by 4.82% for the holdout data. For ISVM, only 556 data from 1056 original training data are used to produce the result. In addition, the two-sample test for proportions is used to examine whether ISVM significantly outperforms other comparative models. The results indicate that ISVM outperforms ANN and 1-NN at the 1% statistical significance level. In addition, ISVM performs better than Logit, SVM and PSVM at the 5% statistical significance level.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.65-82
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• 2021

Stock market investors are generally split into foreign investors, institutional investors, and individual investors. Compared to individual investor groups, professional investor groups such as foreign investors have an advantage in information and financial power and, as a result, foreign investors are known to show good investment performance among market participants. The purpose of this study is to propose an investment strategy that combines investor-specific transaction information and machine learning, and to analyze the portfolio investment performance of the proposed model using actual stock price and investor-specific transaction data. The Korea Exchange offers daily information on the volume of purchase and sale of each investor to securities firms. We developed a data collection program in C# programming language using an API provided by Daishin Securities Cybosplus, and collected 151 out of 200 KOSPI stocks with daily opening price, closing price and investor-specific net purchase data from January 2, 2007 to July 31, 2017. The self-organizing map model is an artificial neural network that performs clustering by unsupervised learning and has been introduced by Teuvo Kohonen since 1984. We implement competition among intra-surface artificial neurons, and all connections are non-recursive artificial neural networks that go from bottom to top. It can also be expanded to multiple layers, although many fault layers are commonly used. Linear functions are used by active functions of artificial nerve cells, and learning rules use Instar rules as well as general competitive learning. The core of the backpropagation model is the model that performs classification by supervised learning as an artificial neural network. We grouped and transformed investor-specific transaction volume data to learn backpropagation models through the self-organizing map model of artificial neural networks. As a result of the estimation of verification data through training, the portfolios were rebalanced monthly. For performance analysis, a passive portfolio was designated and the KOSPI 200 and KOSPI index returns for proxies on market returns were also obtained. Performance analysis was conducted using the equally-weighted portfolio return, compound interest rate, annual return, Maximum Draw Down, standard deviation, and Sharpe Ratio. Buy and hold returns of the top 10 market capitalization stocks are designated as a benchmark. Buy and hold strategy is the best strategy under the efficient market hypothesis. The prediction rate of learning data using backpropagation model was significantly high at 96.61%, while the prediction rate of verification data was also relatively high in the results of the 57.1% verification data. The performance evaluation of self-organizing map grouping can be determined as a result of a backpropagation model. This is because if the grouping results of the self-organizing map model had been poor, the learning results of the backpropagation model would have been poor. In this way, the performance assessment of machine learning is judged to be better learned than previous studies. Our portfolio doubled the return on the benchmark and performed better than the market returns on the KOSPI and KOSPI 200 indexes. In contrast to the benchmark, the MDD and standard deviation for portfolio risk indicators also showed better results. The Sharpe Ratio performed higher than benchmarks and stock market indexes. Through this, we presented the direction of portfolio composition program using machine learning and investor-specific transaction information and showed that it can be used to develop programs for real stock investment. The return is the result of monthly portfolio composition and asset rebalancing to the same proportion. Better outcomes are predicted when forming a monthly portfolio if the system is enforced by rebalancing the suggested stocks continuously without selling and re-buying it. Therefore, real transactions appear to be relevant.