• THE INTERNATIONAL COMMERCE & LAW REVIEW
• /
• v.67
• /
• pp.209-231
• /
• 2015

The accurate national trade statistics can show the real nation's trade situation, and contribute to setting up the national's trade plans and corporate's strategies. This study researches the differences between trade statistics and actual trade record among the national and international statistics and suggests improvement plans to solve the problems. There are 4 types' differences among the trade statistics as follows; First, a statistical differences between Korea Customs Service and Bank of Korea by yearly US$9.6billions because of standard and boundary of trade statistics. Second, a statistical differences between Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy and Korea Customs Service because of the time and purpose of trade statistics release. Third, a statistical differences between Korea and counterpart countries because of standard of trade statistics, intermediate countries and rules of origin. Lastly, a statistical differences between nation's statistics and corporate record because of typing errors and indirect export record. The fundamental improvement plans are Korea statistics rules like Korea Foreign Trade Rules and Korea Custom Rules, need to coincide with the international rules like IMTS, MSITS, BPM6 etc. Especially the rules of statistics related to intermediary trade, processing trade and transit trade have to revise with new BPM6 rules. In addition, a reasonable care of trade statistics from accumulation to utilization of trade information is more important than statistical regulation or system, so all persons concerned including exporters, importers, government official pay attention the statistics and cooperate together.

• Korea Trade Review
• /
• v.47 no.2
• /
• pp.31-46
• /
• 2022

The purpose of this study is to measure the degree of discrepancies in the bilateral trade data between South Korea and its five major trade partners and to identify the key factors causing the discrepancies. By analyzing statistics based on the CIF/FOB ratio estimation and taking into consideration the trade flow via Hong Kong, the study finds that the discrepancies in South Korea's trade data with the US, Vietnam, and Japan are insignificant. In case of Hong Kong, however, the value of South Korea's import from Hong Kong is extensively inconsistent with Hong Kong's export to South Korea(i.e. the mirror data) while the value of South Korea's export to Hong Kong generally corresponds to its mirror data. Such discrepancies are caused by differences in recording re-exports, which are often found in the trade flow via entrepôt economics including Hong Kong. Meanwhile, discrepancies in reported bilateral trade flows between South Korea and People's Republic of China(PRC) remain relatively marginal. The discrepancy of statistics between South Korea as the exporter and PRC as the importer is mainly caused by the trade flow via Hong Kong. On the other hand, the discrepancy of statistics between South Korea as the importer and PRC as the exporter is assumably due to the differences in attribution of trade partners.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• v.8 no.5
• /
• pp.37-41
• /
• 2021

This study aims to investigate the relationship between the exchange rate and Trade Balance. Trade Balance is used as the dependent variable, and the independent variables are Exchange Rate, Gross Domestic Product, and Inflation. Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test was adopted to test the stationary property of time series data, Auto Regressive Distributed Lag model was employed to find the long run and short-run relationship and long-run adjustment, Bound test approach, the unrestricted Error Correction Model and Granger Causality Test are used to analyze the data from 1977 to 2019. The research findings suggest that inflation has a positive impact on the trade balance in the short run. The exchange rate and the Gross Domestic Product have adverse effects on Trade balance in the long run. The coefficient of ER in the previous year is negative, and the coefficient of TB in the previous year is positive and significant. This is consistent with the J-Curve phenomenon, which states that devaluation may not improve trade balance in the immediate period, but will significantly impact the trade balance improvement in subsequent periods. Hence Marshall Lerner Condition exists in Sri Lanka.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
• /
• v.32 no.2
• /
• pp.93-143
• /
• 2010

This paper estimates the impact of Japan's economic sanction on DPRK trade in the 2000s. It conceptualizes the effects of sanction on DPRK trade, econometrically tests whether such effects exist in case of Japan's sanction using currently available DPRK trade statistics, and measures the size of the effects by correcting and reconfiguring the deficiencies of the currently available DPRK trade statistics. The main findings of the paper are as follows. First, Japan's sanction can have two different effects on DPRK trade: 'Sanction Country Effect' and "Third Country Effect.' The former means that the sanction diminishes DPRK trade with Japan while the latter refers to the effects on DPRK trade with other countries as well. The third country effect can arise not simply because the DPRK changes its trade routes to circumvent the sanction, but because the sanction forces the DPRK to readjust its major trade items and patterns. Second, currently no official DPRK trade statistics are available. Thus, the so-called mirror data referring to DPRK trading partners' statistics should be employed for the analysis of the sanction effects. However, all currently available mirror data suffer from three fundamental problems: 1) they may omit the real trade partners of the DPRK; 2) they may confuse ROK trade with DPRK trade; 3) they cannot distinguish non-commercial trade from commercial trade, whereas only the latter concerns Japan's sanction. Considering those problems, we have to adopt the following method in order to reach a reasonable conclusion about the sanction effect. That is, we should repeat the same analysis using all different mirror data currently available, which include KOTRA, IMF and UN Commodity Trade Statistics, and then discuss only the common results from them. Third, currently available mirror data make the following points. 1) DPRK trade is well explained by the gravity model. 2) Japan's sanction has not only the sanction country effect but also the third country effect on DPRK trade. 3) The third country effect occurs differently on DPRK export and import. In case of export, the mirror statistics reveal positive (+) third country effects on all of the major trade partners of the DPRK, including South Korea, China and Thailand. However, on DPRK import, such third country effects are not statistically significant even for South Korea and China. 4) This suggests that Japan's sanction has greater effects on DPRK import rather than its export. Fourth, as far as DPRK export is concerned, it is possible to resolve the abovementioned fundamental problems of mirror data and thus reconstruct more accurate statistics on DPRK trade. Those reconstructed statistics lead us to following conclusions. 1) Japan's economic sanction diminished DPRK's export to Japan from 2004 to 2006 by 103 million dollars on annual average (Sanction Country Effect). It comprises around 60 percent of DPRK's export to Japan in 2003. 2) However, for the same period, the DPRK diverted its exports to other countries to cope up with Japan's sanction, and as a result its export to other countries increased by 85 million dollars on annual average (Third Country Effect). 3) This means that more than 80 per cent of the sanction country effect was made up for by the third country effect. And the actual size of impact that Japan's sanction made on DPRK export in total was merely 30 million dollars on annual average. 4) The third country effect occurred mostly in inter-Korean trade. In fact, Japan's sanction increased DPRK export to the ROK by 72 million dollars on annual average. In contrast, there was no statistically significant increase in DPRK export to China caused by Japan's sanction. 5) It means that the DPRK confronted Japan's sanction and mitigated its impact primarily by using inter-Korean trade and thus the ROK. Fifth, two things should be noted concerning the fourth results above. 1) The results capture the third country effect caused only by trade transfer. Facing Japan's sanction, the DPRK could transfer its existing trade with Japan to other countries. Also it could change its main export items and increase the export of those new items to other countries as mentioned in the first result. However, the fourth results above reflect only the former, not the latter. 2) Although Japan's sanction did not make a huge impact on DPRK export, it might not be necessarily true for DPRK import. Indeed the currently available mirror statistics suggest that Japan's sanction has greater effects on DPRK import. Hence it would not be wise to argue that Japan's sanction did not have much impact on DPRK trade in general, simply using the fourth result above.

• International Commerce and Information Review
• /
• v.9 no.4
• /
• pp.461-482
• /
• 2007

This Paper will use various analysis tools that have not been used a lot by the existing researches, and also use the statistics of trade until August 2007 to measure and analyze the trade relationship between China and Korea. This study, which is basic study to studies to be conducted later, has been performed to establish effective economic cooperative relations between Korea and China by examining trade structure of the two countries through trade-related indexes. Therefore, this study has academic values as a theoretical study which can explain economic effects of the Korea-China FTA. However, as data used for this study was based on the data of the National Statistics Office in general, this study was executed with realistic limitations owing to lack of local data. I will supplement this later and do my best to conduct a precise study.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• v.8 no.3
• /
• pp.111-118
• /
• 2021

The purpose of this paper is to study the impact of trade openness on foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows into Vietnam, an emerging country with relatively high trade openness in recent years. The study used the vector autoregression (VAR) model to examine the impact of trade openness on FDI in Vietnam, in the period from 2005 to 2019. The research data are time-series data, with quarterly frequency, from 2005:Q4 to 2019:Q3. The FDI data were collected by International Financial Statistics. The data of trade openness were calculated based on Vietnam's export, import, and GDP data collected by the General Statistics Office of Vietnam. The estimated result shows that the trade openness has a positive effect on FDI. The current FDI is heavily influenced by FDI in the past with an average explanation of 74%. The main findings indicate that trade openness has a positive effect on FDI inflows into Vietnam. The findings also show that FDI in Vietnam is significantly affected by the shocks of the FDI itself in the past. The findings of the study suggest the Vietnamese Government improves the quality of trade openness and FDI, continues and maintains economic relations with other countries to increase trade openness.

• Journal of Korea Trade
• /
• v.23 no.8
• /
• pp.1-26
• /
• 2019

Purpose - This paper investigates the recent trade collapse, recovery, and prolonged slowdown to shed light on the discussions about whether the current slowdown is structural or cyclical. I examine structural, cyclical, and heterogeneous aspects of the recent trade trends using detailed statistics of a small open economy, South Korea, whose economic success and growth have been heavily dependent on exports. Design/methodology - I use both aggregated and disaggregated trade statistics of South Korea. I apply the following methodologies: 1) I decompose the trade growth into the extensive and the intensive margin and observe the effect of prices over time. 2) I estimate the trade-income elasticities focusing on the world's import demand, separately for goods from the world and from Korea. 3) I compare the drop in goods exports in slowdown and trade collapse, which are the two unusual periods in the recent history when world trade has substantially dropped altogether. Findings - I show that while the last drop of trade after 2015 has cyclical aspects, there is evidence that the continued slowdown from 2012 is structural: 1) the so-called 'China factor' is found in the analysis of trade-income elasticity of the world and China for imports from Korea. 2) The bilateral trade barriers between Korea and its principal trading partners are universally tightening. 3) Firm sizes, destination countries, and the mode of transactions affect disaggregated trade flows during the slowdown periods. Originality/value - This paper contributes to the debate regarding whether the current trade slowdown is structural or cyclical. I provide two concrete evidence that the export drop in 2015 stems from low oil prices: one is the divergence of Korean export value index from its export quantity index, which started in late 2014 when oil prices plunged. I also contribute to the literature by providing evidence that Korea's trade barriers with important trading partners are steadily increasing since 2012 as the protectionist measures toward Korea's export products are steeply increasing after the global financial crisis.

• THE INTERNATIONAL COMMERCE & LAW REVIEW
• /
• v.69
• /
• pp.741-762
• /
• 2016

The importance of trade in services has been increasing day by day, but the research on it is insufficient so far in terms of basic information, statistics, influence, industrialization and so on. To foster of professional trader in services, we need curriculums, textbooks and training centers like academy or college in advance. We have well developed curriculums for trade in goods since 1960's in Korea, so we can transfer the trade in goods' curriculum to trade in services. There are some differences between trade in goods and trade in services basically, but we can borrow a lot of idea from trade in goods in terms of basic framework like international economics, international business and international commercial transactions. This study propose the basic framework for trade in services' curriculum. First, trade in services economics handle the basic concept, statistics, characteristics, theories etc. Second, trade in services business treat the global companies to expand their business to global market, so characteristics of service companies, marketing plan and strategies and so on. Third, international commercial transaction of trade in services concentrate for procedures and contracts in terms of formation, implementation and finish of contract. Finally, Services industries can be a future strategic industry to any contries, so there are some national and corporates' strategy for expanding their business. This study acts on the initial idea for curriculums of trade in services, so I am looking forward to many criticism and development from another researchers to develop the model curriculums and textbook for education of specialized trader in services.

• Korea Trade Review
• /
• v.47 no.4
• /
• pp.53-68
• /
• 2022

It has great significance to estimate CIF-FOB margins of international trade. It certainly helps develop statistics on transport costs of international trade and provides basic data for econometric analysis of transport costs. It also contributes much to our standing the correlation between the margins and trade partners' geographical distance as well as one between the margins and trading products. However, the quality issue of international trade statistics renders it very difficult to derive trustworthy CIF-FOB margin estimates. Utilizing various analytical approaches, this study intended to acquire credible estimates of CIF-FOB margins for Korea's total imports and for country/product specific imports data. Major findings are as follows. First, the average of CIF-FOB margins of Korea's total imports is 7.3% and is generally declining. Second, country level analysis provides credible estimates for CIF-FOB margins of Korea's imports from four partners (Japan, the US, Australia, and Brazil). The differences in margins among these four countries are caused by geographical distance and characteristics of traded products. Third, product level analysis reveals that the margins of gold and passenger vehicles are fairly low while those of primary products tend to be high.

• Korea Trade Review
• /
• v.46 no.4
• /
• pp.149-166
• /
• 2021

This paper aims to reduce the frequency of dangerous goods storage accidents in China. Advocating the managers of warehousing and logistics enterprises to pay attention to the operation process of dangerous goods warehousing business. Improving the safe storage and management capabilities of dangerous goods warehouses. This article first collects official data on dangerous goods storage accidents in China and conducts a general statistical analysis of the accidents. Based on the results of accident statistics and related literature research on dangerous goods storage management, establish a dangerous goods storage safety management factor system, use the analytic hierarchy process, establish a factor importance questionnaire and implement data collection. Through statistics, this paper finds that the storage accidents of dangerous goods in China in the past ten years mainly occurred in the inbound phase of dangerous goods and the storage phase of dangerous goods warehouses. Through the results of the analytic hierarchy process, it is found that the professionalism of the dangerous goods storage practitioners, the compliance of the practitioners with safety regulations, and the awareness of operational safety are the most important.