• Title/Summary/Keyword: time series regression analysis

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Sectoral Contribution to Economic Development in India: A Time-Series Co-Integration Analysis

  • SOLANKI, Sandip;INUMULA, Krishna Murthy;CHITNIS, Asmita
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.9
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    • pp.191-200
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    • 2020
  • This research paper examines the causal relationship between India's economic growth and sectoral contribution to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and vice versa, in the short-run and long-run, over a 10 years time period. Johansen's method of cointegration is used to study the cointegration between the sectoral contributions to Indian GDP vis-à-vis India's economic growth. Further, the route of interconnection between economic growth and sectoral contribution is tested by using Vector Auto Regression (VAR) model. Special attention was given for investigating impulse responses of economic growth depending on the innovations in sectoral contribution using time-series data from 1960 to 2015. This paper highlighted a dynamic co-relationship among industrial sector contribution and agricultural sector contribution and economic development. In the long run, one percent change in industrial sector contribution causes an increase of 3.42 percent in the economic growth and an increase of 1.12 percent in the primary sector contribution, while in the short run industrial and service sector contributions showed significant impact on economic development and agriculture sector. The changing composition of sector contribution is going to be an important activity for the policymakers to monitor and control where the technology and integration of sectors play a significant role in economic development.

Trend and Prediction of Urban Family Expenditure for Health Care (도시 가계의료비 지출의 추이와 예측)

  • Park, Jae-Yong;Nam, Si-Hyun
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.28 no.2 s.50
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    • pp.347-363
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    • 1995
  • The increase of health care expenditures is an important problem in the almost countries. Also, suppression of the health care expenditures is an important problem in the health field of Korea since the national health insurance for total people in 1989. Thus, it is very important to grasp the change of the health care expenditures of family and proportions of the health care expenditures to total expenditures of family, because they are the basis of national health care expenditures in Korea. While the health care expenditures of urban family were increased during 1980-1993 by 12.8% annually, the total expenditures of urban family were increased by 14.8% annually. Consequently, the proportions of health care expenditures to total expenditures were decreased from 5.98% to 4.76%. The proportions of health care expenditure for 3 years to come were predicted to 4.75% in 1994, 4.67% in 1995, and 4.63% in 1996 by the time-series analysis. That is, it was predicted that they would be decreasing slowly. The product elasticity of health care expenditure was less than 1 in the multiple regression analysis. so the health care is normal good rather than superior good. Therefore, it seems that the household economy is able to bear the expense pursuing the improvement of quality of health care by actualizing the medical insurance fee.

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Analysis of Health Promotion determinants in Major OECD Countries: A pooled cross-sectional time series (건강결과와 건강결정요인간의 횡단면 시계열 연구 : 주요 OECD 국가를 대상으로)

  • Choi, Yoon-Jung;Bae, Sung-Il;Lee, Young-Ho;Kang, Min-Sun
    • Health Policy and Management
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.33-52
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    • 2009
  • Health promotion policies have needed to assess in detailed and evidence-based work to set a policy goal and clear future directions of health promotion in Korea. To identify the major factors related with health promotion, we assessed the associations between public health outcome (potential years of life loss, PYLL) and national health determinants. For this purpose, we used a pooled cross sectional time-series regression analysis with corrected fixed effect models involving sixteen member countries of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development during the period 1970 to 2001. The PYLL was positively associated with tobacco and alcohol consumption (model 1 and 2) and calories intake (model 2 and 3) while the PYLL was negatively associated with GDP, fruit and vegetable intake (model 2), number of doctors (model 3), coverage rates of health care security, and elderly population rates (model 4). In conclusion, health behaviors related with tobacco, alcohol, and nutrition were significant health determinants for health outcome. Overall analysis results of this study will provide a guidance toward improved macro- and micro-policy development for future health promotion policy in Korea.

A Study on the Estimating Functions of Price and Domestic Consumption of Chestnut in South Korea (우리나라의 밤 가격(價格) 및 국내소비량(國內消費量) 추정(推定)에 관(關)한 연구(硏究))

  • Jeon, Jun-Heon;Lee, Sang-Sik
    • Journal of the Korean Wood Science and Technology
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.29-34
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    • 1993
  • This study was carried out to estimate price and domestic consumption functions of chestnut using time series data for the period 1970~1989. Using a regression analysis method, price and domestic consumption functions of chestnut in Korea are estimated. The result of this study reveals that the optimum function of price for chestnut is PR= -249.33965 + 163532.56817 EX/POP-4.10177 PD+4.02877 DC+6056.98339 GDP/POP($R^2$=0.88207), and that optimum function of domestic consumption for chestnut is ln DC=14.97145+1.48279 ln PD/POP - 0.32853 ln GDP - 0.02337 ln PR - 0.12117 ln EX($R^2$=0.98689). On the ground that instability of prices make the income of producer and family finances of consumer unstable, the object of price-policy should be to stabilize price of chestnut in Korea.

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The Development of Econometric Model for Air Transportation Demand Based on Stationarity in Time-series (시계열 자료의 안정성을 고려한 항공수요 계량경제모형 개발)

  • PARK, Jeasung;KIM, Byung Jong;KIM, Wonkyu;JANG, Eunhyuk
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.95-106
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    • 2016
  • Air transportation demand is consistently increasing in Korea due to economic growth and low cost carriers. For this reason, airport expansion plans are being discussed in Korea. Therefore, it is essential to forecast reliable air transportation demand with adequate methods. However, most of the air transportation demand models in Korea has been developed by simple regression analysis with several dummy variables. Simple regression analysis without considering stationarity of time-series data can bring spurious outputs when a direct causal relationship between explanatory variables and dependent variable does not exist. In this paper, econometric model were developed for air transportation demand based on stationarity in time-series data. Unit root test and co-integration test are used for testing hypothesis of stationarity.

Determinants of Regional Poverty in Korea (지역 빈곤의 격차와 요인에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Kyo-Seong;Noh, Hye-Jin
    • Korean Journal of Social Welfare
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    • v.61 no.2
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    • pp.85-106
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    • 2009
  • The main purpose of this paper is to examine the structural determinants of regional variations of poverty in Korea. Poverty rates and independent variables in Seoul, 6 other metropolitan areas, and 8 provinces except Jejudo from the year of 1998 through 2006 were pooled as unit of analysis. The pooled cross-sectional time-series regression(TSCSREG) using SAS program was adapted for the analysis. As a result of the analysis, absolute poverty and relative poverty of Gangwondo and Chungcheongnamdo were relatively higher, and that of Seoul and Ulsan metropolitan area were lower than other areas. And, the increase of financial self-reliance, social welfare expenditure, rate of standard workers, and rate of workers in manufacturing sector were associated with lower poverty rates. Therefore, place-based policies should be considered as another poverty-fighting tool in conjunction with people-based policies.

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Neural Networks-Based Method for Electrocardiogram Classification

  • Maksym Kovalchuk;Viktoriia Kharchenko;Andrii Yavorskyi;Igor Bieda;Taras Panchenko
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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    • v.23 no.9
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    • pp.186-191
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    • 2023
  • Neural Networks are widely used for huge variety of tasks solution. Machine Learning methods are used also for signal and time series analysis, including electrocardiograms. Contemporary wearable devices, both medical and non-medical type like smart watch, allow to gather the data in real time uninterruptedly. This allows us to transfer these data for analysis or make an analysis on the device, and thus provide preliminary diagnosis, or at least fix some serious deviations. Different methods are being used for this kind of analysis, ranging from medical-oriented using distinctive features of the signal to machine learning and deep learning approaches. Here we will demonstrate a neural network-based approach to this task by building an ensemble of 1D CNN classifiers and a final classifier of selection using logistic regression, random forest or support vector machine, and make the conclusions of the comparison with other approaches.

A Study for Effects of Economic Growth Rate and Unemployment Rate to Suicide Rate in Korea (우리나라에서 경제성장률과 실업률이 자살률에 미치는 영향)

  • Park, Jong-Soon;Lee, June-Young;Kim, Soon-Duck
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.85-91
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    • 2003
  • Objectives : We investigated the effects of the economic growth and unemployment rates on the suicide rate in Korea, between 1983 and 2000, using a time-series regression model. The purpose of this study was to model and test the magnitude of the rate of suicide, with the Korean unemployment rate and GDP. Methods : Using suicide rate per 100,000 Koreans and the unemployment rates between 1983 and 2000, as published by the Korea National Statistical Office, and the rate of fluctuation of the Korean GDP (Gross Domestic Product), as provided by the Bank of Korea, as an index of the economic growth rate, a time-series regression analysis, with a first-order autoregressive regression model, was peformed. Results : An 81.5% of the variability in the suicide rate was explained by GDP, and 82.6% Of that was explained by the unemployment rate. It was also observed that the GDP negatively correlated with the suicide rate, while the unemployment and suicide rates were positively correlated. For subjects aged over 20, both the GDP and unemployment rate were found to be a significant factors in explaining suicide rates, with coefficients of determination of 86.5 and 87.9%, respectively. For subjects aged under 20, however, only the GDP was found to be a significant factor in explaning suicide rates (the coefficient of determination is 38.4%). Conclusion : It was found that the suicide rate was closely related to the National's economic status of Korea, which is similar to the results found in studies in other countries. We expected, therefore, that this study could be used as the basis for further suicide-related studies.

An Analysis of Changes in Catch Amount of Offshore and Coastal Fisheries by Climate Change in Korea (기후변화에 따른 한국 연근해 어업생산량 변화 분석)

  • Eom, Ki-Hyuk;Kim, Hong-Sik;Han, In-Seong;Kim, Do-Hoon
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.46 no.2
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    • pp.31-41
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    • 2015
  • This study aimed to analyze the relationship between sea surface temperature as a climatic element and catch amount of offshore and coastal fisheries in Korea using annual time series data from 1970 to 2013. It also tried to predict the future changes in catch amount of fisheries by climate change. Time series data on variables were estimated to be non-stationary from unit root tests, but one long-term equilibrium relation between variables was found from a cointegration test. The result of Granger causality test indicated that the sea surface temperature would cause directly changes in catch amount of offshore and coastal fisheries. The result of regression analysis on sea surface temperature and catch amount showed that the sea surface temperature would have negative impacts on the catch amount of offshore and coastal fisheries. Therefore, if the sea surface temperature would increase, all other things including the current level of fishing effort being equal, the catch amount of offshore and coastal fisheries was predicted to decrease.

Analyzing the Relationship between Climate Change and Anchovy Catch using a Cointegration Test (공적분 검정을 이용한 기후변화의 멸치 생산량에 대한 영향 분석)

  • EOM, Ki-Hyuk;KIM, Hong-Sik;HAN, In-Seong;KIM, Do-Hoon
    • Journal of Fisheries and Marine Sciences Education
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    • v.27 no.6
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    • pp.1745-1754
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    • 2015
  • This study aimed to analyze the relationship between sea temperatures and anchovy catch of Anchovy drag net fishery using annual time series data from 1970 to 2013. In the analysis, time series data on variables (CPUE, sea surface temperature, and 10m temperature) were estimated to be non-stationary from unit root tests, but one long-term equilibrium relation among variables was found from a cointegration test. From an exclusion test, a 10m temperature would not have relations with CPUE and sea surface temperature. The result of regression analysis on sea surface temperature and anchovy catch indicated that the sea surface temperature would have positive impacts on the anchovy catch. It means that when the sea surface temperature would increase, all other things including the current level of fishing effort being equal, the catch of anchovy was predicted to increase. More specifically, the result showed that when 1% of sea surface temperature increases, CPUE would be increased by 2.81%.