Journal of Fisheries and Marine Sciences Education (수산해양교육연구)

The Korean Society for Fisheries and Marine Sciences Education (한국수산해양교육학회)
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Analyzing the Relationship between Climate Change and Anchovy Catch using a Cointegration Test

공적분 검정을 이용한 기후변화의 멸치 생산량에 대한 영향 분석

  • Received : 2015.10.12
  • Accepted : 2015.11.19
  • Published : 2015.12.31
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Abstract

This study aimed to analyze the relationship between sea temperatures and anchovy catch of Anchovy drag net fishery using annual time series data from 1970 to 2013. In the analysis, time series data on variables (CPUE, sea surface temperature, and 10m temperature) were estimated to be non-stationary from unit root tests, but one long-term equilibrium relation among variables was found from a cointegration test. From an exclusion test, a 10m temperature would not have relations with CPUE and sea surface temperature. The result of regression analysis on sea surface temperature and anchovy catch indicated that the sea surface temperature would have positive impacts on the anchovy catch. It means that when the sea surface temperature would increase, all other things including the current level of fishing effort being equal, the catch of anchovy was predicted to increase. More specifically, the result showed that when 1% of sea surface temperature increases, CPUE would be increased by 2.81%.

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References

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