• Title/Summary/Keyword: time series data analysis

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Spatio-temporal enhancement of forest fire risk index using weather forecast and satellite data in South Korea (기상 예보 및 위성 자료를 이용한 우리나라 산불위험지수의 시공간적 고도화)

  • KANG, Yoo-Jin;PARK, Su-min;JANG, Eun-na;IM, Jung-ho;KWON, Chun-Geun;LEE, Suk-Jun
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.116-130
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    • 2019
  • In South Korea, forest fire occurrences are increasing in size and duration due to various factors such as the increase in fuel materials and frequent drying conditions in forests. Therefore, it is necessary to minimize the damage caused by forest fires by appropriately providing the probability of forest fire risk. The purpose of this study is to improve the Daily Weather Index(DWI) provided by the current forest fire forecasting system in South Korea. A new Fire Risk Index(FRI) is proposed in this study, which is provided in a 5km grid through the synergistic use of numerical weather forecast data, satellite-based drought indices, and forest fire-prone areas. The FRI is calculated based on the product of the Fine Fuel Moisture Code(FFMC) optimized for Korea, an integrated drought index, and spatio-temporal weighting approaches. In order to improve the temporal accuracy of forest fire risk, monthly weights were applied based on the forest fire occurrences by month. Similarly, spatial weights were applied using the forest fire density information to improve the spatial accuracy of forest fire risk. In the time series analysis of the number of monthly forest fires and the FRI, the relationship between the two were well simulated. In addition, it was possible to provide more spatially detailed information on forest fire risk when using FRI in the 5km grid than DWI based on administrative units. The research findings from this study can help make appropriate decisions before and after forest fire occurrences.

The Impact of SSM Market Entry on Changes in Market Shares among Retailing Types (기업형 슈퍼마켓(SSM)의 시장진입이 소매업태간 시장점유율 변화에 미친 영향)

  • Choi, Ji-Ho;Yonn, Min-Suk;Moon, Youn-Hee;Choi, Sung-Ho
    • Journal of Distribution Research
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.115-132
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    • 2012
  • This study empirically examines the impact of SSM market entry on changes in market shares among retailing types. The data is monthly time-series data spanning over the period from January 2000 to December 2010, and the effect of SSM market entry on market shares of retailing types is analyzed by utilizing several key factors such as the number of new SSM monthly entrants, total number of SSMs, the proportion of new SSM entrant that is smaller than $165m^2$ to total new SSM entrants. According to the Korean Standard Industrial Classification codes, the retailing type is classified into 5 groups: department stores, retail sale in other non-specialized large stores(big marts), supermarkets, convenience stores, and retail sale in other non-specialized stores with food or beverages predominating (others). The market shares of retailing types are calculated by the ratio of each retailing type monthly sales to total monthly retailing sales in which total retailing sales is the sum of each retailing type sales. The empirical model controls for the size effects with the number of monthly employees for each retailing type and the macroeconomic effects with M2. The empirical model employed in this study is as follows; $$MS_i=f(NewSSM,\;CumSSM,\;employ_i,\;under165,\;M2)$$ where $MS_i$ is the market share of each retailing type (department stores, big marts), supermarkets, convenience stores, and others), NewSSM is the number of new SSM monthly entrants, CumSSM is total number of SSMs, $employ_i$ is the number of monthly employees for each retailing type, and under165 is the proportion of new SSM entrant that is smaller than $165m^2$ to total new SSM entrants. The correlation among these variables are reported in

    .
    shows the descriptive statistics of the sample. Sales is the total monthly revenue of each retailing type, employees is total number of monthly employees for each retailing type, area is total floor space of each retail type($m^2$), number of store is total number of monthly stores for each retailing type, market share is the ratio of each retailing type monthly sales to total monthly retailing sales in which total retailing sales is the sum of each retailing type sales, new monthly SSMs is total number of new monthly SSM entrants, and M2 is a money supply. The empirical results of the effect of new SSM market entry on changes in market shares among retailing types (department stores, retail sale in other non-specialized large stores, supermarkets, convenience stores, and retail sale in other non-specialized stores with food or beverages predominating) are reported in
    . The dependant variables are the market share of department stores, the market share of big marts, the market share of supermarkets, the market share of convenience stores, and the market share of others. The result shows that the impact of new SSM market entry on changes in market share of retail sale in other non-specialized large stores (big marts) is statistically significant. Total number of monthly SSM stores has a significant effect on market share, but the magnitude and sign of effect is different among retailing types. The increase in the number of SSM stores has a negative effect on the market share of retail sale in other non-specialized large stores(big marts) and convenience stores, but has a positive impact on the market share of department stores, supermarkets, and retail sale in other non-specialized stores with food or beverages predominating (others). This study offers the theoretical and practical implication to these findings and also suggests the direction for the further analysis.

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  • Construction and estimation of soil moisture site with FDR and COSMIC-ray (SM-FC) sensors for calibration/validation of satellite-based and COSMIC-ray soil moisture products in Sungkyunkwan university, South Korea (위성 토양수분 데이터 및 COSMIC-ray 데이터 보정/검증을 위한 성균관대학교 내 FDR 센서 토양수분 측정 연구(SM-FC) 및 데이터 분석)

    • Kim, Hyunglok;Sunwoo, Wooyeon;Kim, Seongkyun;Choi, Minha
      • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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      • v.49 no.2
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      • pp.133-144
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      • 2016
    • In this study, Frequency Domain Reflectometry (FDR) and COSMIC-ray soil moisture (SM) stations were installed at Sungkyunkwan University in Suwon, South Korea. To provide reliable information about SM, soil property test, time series analysis of measured soil moisture, and comparison of measured SM with satellite-based SM product are conducted. In 2014, six FDR stations were set up for obtaining SM. Each of the stations had four FDR sensors with soil depth from 5 cm to 40 cm at 5~10 cm different intervals. The result showed that study region had heterogeneous soil layer properties such as sand and loamy sand. The measured SM data showed strong coupling with precipitation. Furthermore, they had a high correlation coefficient and a low root mean square deviation (RMSD) as compared to the satellite-based SM products. After verifying the accuracy of the data in 2014, four FDR stations and one COSMIC-ray station were additionally installed to establish the Soil Moisture site with FDR and COSMIC-ray, called SM-FC. COSMIC-ray-based SM had a high correlation coefficient of 0.95 compared with mean SM of FDR stations. From these results, the SM-FC will give a valuable insight for researchers into investigate satellite- and model-based SM validation study in South Korea.

    A Study on the Change of Road in the Changdeokgung Palace Rear Garden between Modern and Contemporary Period (근현대기 창덕궁 후원의 동선 변화에 관한 연구)

    • HA, Taeil;KIM, Choongsik
      • Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
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      • v.54 no.2
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      • pp.120-135
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      • 2021
    • Changdeokgung Rear Garden is an important place to show the essence of the garden culture of the Joseon Dynasty. In the garden landscape experience, the restoration of the road completes the system of connecting the main spaces. Therefore, the restoration of the road requires accurate understanding of its creation, extinction, and maintenance. The purpose of this study was to detail the changes in the path that occurred in the Changdeokgung Palace Rear Garden from the late Joseon Dynasty to the modern and contemporary period by analyzing literature and drawing materials. For a time-series analysis, "Donggwoldo" and "Donggwoldohyeong" produced in the Joseon Dynasty, along with "Changdeokgung Plan Drawing" produced in modern and contemporary times, and aerial photographs were used. Drawings and photographs of different coordinate systems were transformed into one coordinate system in the geographic information system ArcGIS to compare changes in the movements of different periods. The results of the study are as follows. First, a total of 37 sections have been used since Japanese colonial era, of which 13 have been maintained, 14 have disappeared, and 10 have been newly established. Among the extinction sections, the road north of Neungheojeong Pavilion is considered to be an urgent place to connect the space to the garden and restore it to enjoy the scenery. In the new section, it seems necessary to establish a new alternative road or shorten the section for the connecting section between Daebodan and Okryucheon. Second, it was revealed that the biggest and most frequent changes to the road system in the garden were Japanese colonial era and renovations in the 1970s. It is worth noting the changes in the road since the 1970s, rather than Japanese colonial era, where it was difficult to manage the gardens independently. The access road to Okryucheon remained in its original shape until the 1990s, but it was renovated to its current shape due to misperception of the original shape. A project is needed to find out the cause of the change in this period and restore the damaged original shape. The biggest achievement of this study is that it revealed the changes in the garden path of Changdeokgung Palace in modern and contemporary times. The biggest achievement of this study is that it revealed the changes in the road of Changdeokgung Palace Rear Gardens in modern and contemporary times. However, there is a limitation that it has not been able to clearly present the location and shape that should be restored because it has not found data on landscaping plans or maintenance. In order to restore the road using the data revealed in this study, it seems necessary to consider realistic problems such as current space utilization, viewing system, disaster prevention and maintenance.

    Changes of Physical Structure of Hangang(Riv.) in Seoul City Area (서울시 구간 한강의 물리적 구조 변화에 관한 연구)

    • Hong, Sukhwan;Yeum, Junghun;Han, Bongho
      • Journal of Wetlands Research
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      • v.19 no.4
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      • pp.403-408
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      • 2017
    • This study aims to set up the basic data to manage the waterfowl habitat through the analysis of the changes of physical structure according to the time series of Hangang(Riv.) as water birds' habitat. Study area was 41.5km in length from Paldang bridge to Hangju bridge. during total length of 497.52km and horizontal boundary was based on the protected lowland in year 1975. As the analysis result of land use from the center of water to adjacent road to the river, ratio of year 1975 was in order of sedimentary land(22.7%), surface water(20.7%), built-up area(16.9%), field(16.2%), paddy field(15.9%), and afterwards most of the areas were changed through the construction of arterial highway and submerged weir in order to use Hangang(Riv.). In year 1985, the area ratio of protected lowland(57.8%) and surface water(32.8%) dramatically increased. After construction of river bank the recreational areas continually increased and relatively natural areas decreased. In year 2005, the area ratio of protected lowland was enlarged to 57.6% and surface water also to 33.3%. While the length of both riversides and naturalness decreased by 10.9%, 91.5% respectively in year 2005 compared to year 1975, the depth of water increased by 1.46m. Comprehensively, the flow of changes by physical structure in Hangang(Riv.) for 30 years was divided into two periods. The main characteristics in the first period were decrease of riverside area and enlargement of the surface water through the massive construction before middle of year 1980, and afterwards revetments were intensively artificialized with changes of land use for amusement area. In terms of water fowl habitat, Hangang(Riv.) which previously had various types of habitat condition was changed into simplified habitat for few of species, and the active improvement apporach was needed for habitat diversity.

    A Study on Prediction of Asian Dusts Using the WRF-Chem Model in 2010 in the Korean Peninsula (WRF-Chem 모델을 이용한 2010년 한반도의 황사 예측에 관한 연구)

    • Jung, Ok Jin;Moon, Yun Seob
      • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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      • v.36 no.1
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      • pp.90-108
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      • 2015
    • The WRF-Chem model was applied to simulate the Asian dust event affecting the Korean Peninsula from 11 to 13 November 2010. GOCART dust emission schemes, RADM2 chemical mechanism, and MADE/SORGAM aerosol scheme were adopted within the WRF-Chem model to predict dust aerosol concentrations. The results in the model simulations were identified by comparing with the weather maps, satellite images, monitoring data of $PM_{10}$ concentration, and LIDAR images. The model results showed a good agreement with the long-range transport from the dust source area such as Northeastern China and Mongolia to the Korean Peninsula. Comparison of the time series of $PM_{10}$ concentration measured at Backnungdo showed that the correlation coefficient was 0.736, and the root mean square error was $192.73{\mu}g/m^3$. The spatial distribution of $PM_{10}$ concentration using the WRF-Chem model was similar to that of the $PM_{2.5}$ which were about a half of $PM_{10}$. Also, they were much alike in those of the UM-ADAM model simulated by the Korean Meteorological Administration. Meanwhile, the spatial distributions of $PM_{10}$ concentrations during the Asian dust events had relevance to those of both the wind speed of u component ($ms^{-1}$) and the PBL height (m). We performed a regressive analysis between $PM_{10}$ concentrations and two meteorological variables (u component and PBL) in the strong dust event in autumn (CASE 1, on 11 to 23 March 2010) and the weak dust event in spring (CASE 2, on 19 to 20 March 2011), respectively.

    The Effects of Female Wage on Fertility in Korea (여성의 임금수준이 출산율에 미치는 영향 분석)

    • Kim, Jungho
      • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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      • v.31 no.1
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      • pp.105-138
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      • 2009
    • Although the decline in fertility rate is generally observed along the history of economic development throughout the world, the continuing decline hitting below the replacement level in Korea over the recent years gathered serious social concerns on the ground that it accelerates the process of population aging. The total fertility rate in Koreareached 2.08 in 1983, and gradually fell to the levels of 1.08 in 2005 and 1.26 in 2007. The policy debate over the role of the government has been focused mainly on the level of theoretical discussion without substantial basis on firm empirical evidence and the determinants of fertility. The objective of the paper is to empirically investigate the fertility effect of the female wage, which is understood as one of the most important determinants of fertility in Koreasince 1980 focusing on one aspect of fertility, namely birth spacing. Using the Korean National Fertility Survey conducted in 2006, I estimate a duration model of first and second births taking into account individual heterogeneity, which turned out to be an important factor to control for. Compared with previous studies in the literature on the Korean fertility, the study has an advantage of using the complete pregnancy history of women in a more representative sample. Unlike the previous studies, the analysis also deals with the endogeneity of marriage by treating a certain age, rather than age at marriage, as the time in which a woman becomes exposed to the risk of pregnancy. The study shares the common problem in the literature on birth spacing of lacking relevant wage information for respondents in a retrospective survey. I estimate the wage series as a function of the basic characteristics using the annual Wage Structure Survey from 1980 to 2005, which is considered as a nationally representative sample for wage information of employees. The results suggest that the increase in female wage by 10 percent leads to a decrease in second birth hazard by 0.56~0.92 percentage points and that the increase in spouse's wage by the equal amount is accompanied by the increase in second birth hazard by 0.36~1.13 percentage points. These estimates are more precisely estimated and of smaller magnitude than those presented by the previous studies. The results are robust to the different specifications of the wage equation. The simulation analysis based on the predicted values shows that about 17% of the change in the second birth hazard over the period 1980 to 2005 was due to the change in the female wage. Although there is some limitation in data, the results can be viewed as one estimate of the role of female wage on the recent fertility decline in Korea. The question raised by the paper is not a normative one of whether a government should promote childbearing but a positive one thatexplains fertility decline. Therefore, if there is a wide consensus on promoting childbearing, the finding suggests that the policies designed to reduce the opportunity cost of women in the labor market would be effective. The recent movement of implementing a wide range of family-friendly policies including child care support, maternity leave, parental leave and tax benefit in developed countries should be understood in this context.

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    A Statistical model to Predict soil Temperature by Combining the Yearly Oscillation Fourier Expansion and Meteorological Factors (연주기(年週期) Fourier 함수(函數)와 기상요소(氣象要素)에 의(依)한 지온예측(地溫豫測) 통계(統計) 모형(模型))

    • Jung, Yeong-Sang;Lee, Byun-Woo;Kim, Byung-Chang;Lee, Yang-Soo;Um, Ki-Tae
      • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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      • v.23 no.2
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      • pp.87-93
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      • 1990
    • A statistical model to predict soil temperature from the ambient meteorological factors including mean, maximum and minimum air temperatures, precipitation, wind speed and snow depth combined with Fourier time series expansion was developed with the data measured at the Suwon Meteorolical Service from 1979 to 1988. The stepwise elimination technique was used for statistical analysis. For the yearly oscillation model for soil temperature with 8 terms of Fourier expansion, the mean square error was decreased with soil depth showing 2.30 for the surface temperature, and 1.34-0.42 for 5 to 500-cm soil temperatures. The $r^2$ ranged from 0.913 to 0.988. The number of lag days of air temperature by remainder analysis was 0 day for the soil surface temperature, -1 day for 5 to 30-cm soil temperature, and -2 days for 50-cm soil temperature. The number of lag days for precipitaion, snow depth and wind speed was -1 day for the 0 to 10-cm soil temperatures, and -2 to -3 days for the 30 to 50-cm soil teperatures. For the statistical soil temperature prediction model combined with the yearly oscillation terms and meteorological factors as remainder terms considering the lag days obtained above, the mean square error was 1.64 for the soil surfac temperature, and ranged 1.34-0.42 for 5 to 500cm soil temperatures. The model test with 1978 data independent to model development resulted in good agreement with $r^2$ ranged 0.976 to 0.996. The magnitudes of coeffcicients implied that the soil depth where daily meteorological variables night affect soil temperature was 30 to 50 cm. In the models, solar radiation was not included as a independent variable ; however, in a seperated analysis on relationship between the difference(${\Delta}Tmxs$) of the maximum soil temperature and the maximum air temperature and solar radiation(Rs ; $J\;m^{-2}$) under a corn canopy showed linear relationship as $${\Delta}Tmxs=0.902+1.924{\times}10^{-3}$$ Rs for leaf area index lower than 2 $${\Delta}Tmxs=0.274+8.881{\times}10^{-4}$$ Rs for leaf area index higher than 2.

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    Automatic gasometer reading system using selective optical character recognition (관심 문자열 인식 기술을 이용한 가스계량기 자동 검침 시스템)

    • Lee, Kyohyuk;Kim, Taeyeon;Kim, Wooju
      • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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      • v.26 no.2
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      • pp.1-25
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      • 2020
    • In this paper, we suggest an application system architecture which provides accurate, fast and efficient automatic gasometer reading function. The system captures gasometer image using mobile device camera, transmits the image to a cloud server on top of private LTE network, and analyzes the image to extract character information of device ID and gas usage amount by selective optical character recognition based on deep learning technology. In general, there are many types of character in an image and optical character recognition technology extracts all character information in an image. But some applications need to ignore non-of-interest types of character and only have to focus on some specific types of characters. For an example of the application, automatic gasometer reading system only need to extract device ID and gas usage amount character information from gasometer images to send bill to users. Non-of-interest character strings, such as device type, manufacturer, manufacturing date, specification and etc., are not valuable information to the application. Thus, the application have to analyze point of interest region and specific types of characters to extract valuable information only. We adopted CNN (Convolutional Neural Network) based object detection and CRNN (Convolutional Recurrent Neural Network) technology for selective optical character recognition which only analyze point of interest region for selective character information extraction. We build up 3 neural networks for the application system. The first is a convolutional neural network which detects point of interest region of gas usage amount and device ID information character strings, the second is another convolutional neural network which transforms spatial information of point of interest region to spatial sequential feature vectors, and the third is bi-directional long short term memory network which converts spatial sequential information to character strings using time-series analysis mapping from feature vectors to character strings. In this research, point of interest character strings are device ID and gas usage amount. Device ID consists of 12 arabic character strings and gas usage amount consists of 4 ~ 5 arabic character strings. All system components are implemented in Amazon Web Service Cloud with Intel Zeon E5-2686 v4 CPU and NVidia TESLA V100 GPU. The system architecture adopts master-lave processing structure for efficient and fast parallel processing coping with about 700,000 requests per day. Mobile device captures gasometer image and transmits to master process in AWS cloud. Master process runs on Intel Zeon CPU and pushes reading request from mobile device to an input queue with FIFO (First In First Out) structure. Slave process consists of 3 types of deep neural networks which conduct character recognition process and runs on NVidia GPU module. Slave process is always polling the input queue to get recognition request. If there are some requests from master process in the input queue, slave process converts the image in the input queue to device ID character string, gas usage amount character string and position information of the strings, returns the information to output queue, and switch to idle mode to poll the input queue. Master process gets final information form the output queue and delivers the information to the mobile device. We used total 27,120 gasometer images for training, validation and testing of 3 types of deep neural network. 22,985 images were used for training and validation, 4,135 images were used for testing. We randomly splitted 22,985 images with 8:2 ratio for training and validation respectively for each training epoch. 4,135 test image were categorized into 5 types (Normal, noise, reflex, scale and slant). Normal data is clean image data, noise means image with noise signal, relfex means image with light reflection in gasometer region, scale means images with small object size due to long-distance capturing and slant means images which is not horizontally flat. Final character string recognition accuracies for device ID and gas usage amount of normal data are 0.960 and 0.864 respectively.

    A Study on the Optimum Design of Multiple Screw Type Dryer for Treatment of Sewage Sludge (하수슬러지 처리를 위한 다축 스크류 난류 접촉식 건조기의 최적 설계 연구)

    • Na, En-Soo;Shin, Sung-Soo;Shin, Mi-Soo;Jang, Dong-Soon
      • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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      • v.34 no.4
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      • pp.223-231
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      • 2012
    • The purpose of this study is to investigate basically the mechanism of heat transfer by the resolution of complex fluid flow inside a sophisticated designed screw dryer for the treatment of sewage sludge by using numerical analysis and experimental study. By doing this, the result was quite helpful to obtain the design criteria for enhancing drying efficiency, thereby achieving the optimal design of a multiple screw type dryer for treating inorganic and organic sludge wastes. One notable design feature of the dryer was to bypass a certain of fraction of the hot combustion gases into the bottom of the screw cylinder, by the fluid flow induction, across the delicately designed holes on the screw surface to agitate internally the sticky sludges. This offers many benefits not only in the enhancement of thermal efficiency even for the high viscosity material but also greater flexibility in the application of system design and operation. However, one careful precaution was made in operation in that when distributing the hot flue gas over the lump of sludge for internal agitation not to make any pore blocking and to avoid too much pressure drop caused by inertial resistance across the lump of sludge. The optimal retention time for rotating the screw at 1 rpm in order to treat 200 kg/hr of sewage sludge was determined empirically about 100 minutes. The corresponding optimal heat source was found to be 150,000 kcal/hr. A series of numerical calculation is performed to resolve flow characteristics in order to assist in the system design as function of important system and operational variables. The numerical calculation is successfully evaluated against experimental temperature profile and flow field characteristics. In general, the calculation results are physically reasonable and consistent in parametric study. In further studies, more quantitative data analyses such as pressure drop across the type and loading of drying sludge will be made for the system evaluation in experiment and calculation.


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