• Atmosphere
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• v.23 no.3
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• pp.347-356
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• 2013

The climate projection with a high spatial resolution is required for the studies on regional climate changes. The Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) has provided downscaled RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) scenarios over Korea with 1 km spatial resolution. If there are additional climate projections produced by dynamically downscale, the quality of impacts and vulnerability assessments of Korea would be improved with uncertainty information. This technical note intends to instruct the methods to downscale the climate projections dynamically from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) to the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. In particular, here we focus on the instruction to utilize CAM2WRF, a sub-program to link output of CESM to initial and boundary condition of WRF at Linux platform. We also provide the example of the dynamically downscaled results over Korean Peninsula with 50 km spatial resolution for August, 2020. This instruction can be helpful to utilize global scale climate scenarios for studying regional climate change over Korean peninsula with further validation and uncertainty/bias analysis.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Propulsion Engineers Conference
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• 2007.04a
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• pp.3-6
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• 2007

Korea Aerospce Research Institute(KARI) has been developing the first civilian rocket, Korea space launch vehicle (KSLV-I), which can put the small size satellite into designated orbit. Developing launch vehicles contains a lot of uncertainty due to large scale, complexity, and technical difficulty. The uncertainty may become risk in the areas of business and technology which causes schedule delay, cost increase, and design changes of subsystems and components. This study describes the technical risk identification methods using FTA and procedures of planning and implementation of risk assessment and reduction of launch vehicle propulsion system.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Machine Tool Engineers
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• v.18 no.1
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• pp.90-102
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• 2009

In this paper, a tracking control problem for a mechanical servo system with nonlinear dynamic friction is treated. The nonlinear friction model contains directly immeasurable friction state and the uncertainty caused by incomplete modeling and variations of its parameter. In order to provide the efficient solution to these control problems, we propose a hybrid control scheme, which consists of a robust friction state observer, a RFNN estimator and an approximation error estimator with sliding mode control. A sliding mode controller and a robust friction state observer is firstly designed to estimate the unknown infernal state of the LuGre friction model. Next, a RFNN estimator is introduced to approximate the unknown lumped friction uncertainty. Finally, an adaptive approximation error estimator is designed to compensate the approximation error of the RFNN estimator. Some simulations and experiments on the mechanical servo system composed of ball-screw and DC servo motor are presented. Results demonstrate the remarkable performance of the proposed control scheme.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Electrical and Electronic Material Engineers Conference
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• 2007.06a
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• pp.482-483
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• 2007

For measurement of dielectric constants, the commercial parallel plate electrodes system with guard-ring electrode have been widely used up to now. The capacitance derived from the parallel plate electrodes capacitor with guard-ring electrode is calculated by the equation of ($C={\epsilon}\;{\cdot}\;\frac{area\;of\;electrod}{distance\;between\;electrodes}$). Therefore, in parallel plate electrode capacitor, the diameter of the guarded electrode, the gap size between guarded electrode and guard ring, and distance between two active electrode should be measured precisely to calculate dielectric constants from the measured capacitance. Consequently their mechanical measurement uncertainties are directly contributed. Especially the air-gap between the electrodes and dielectric specimen at the system must be existed and the measurement error derived from the air-gap is impossible to evaluate as measurement uncertainties. In this study, we analyze the uncertainty of the commercial dielectric constant test cell using 3 kinds CRMs.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.45 no.4
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• pp.31-41
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• 2022

As the environmental impacts of fossil fuel energy sources increase, the South Korean government has tried to change non-environmental-friendly enery sources to environmental-friendly energy sources in order to mitigate environmental effects, which lead to global warming and air pollution. With both a limited budget and limited time, it is essential to accurately evaluate the economic and environmental effects of renewable energy projects for the efficient and effective operation of renewable energy plants. Although the traditional economic evaluation methods are not ideal for evaluating the economic impacts of renewable energy projects, they can still be used for this purpose. Renewable energy projects involve many risks due to various uncertainties. For this reason, this study utilizes a real option method, the Geske compound model, to evaluate the renewable energy projects on Jeju Island in terms of economic and environmental values. This study has developed an economic evaluation model based on the Geske compound model to investigate the influences of flexibility and uncertainty factors on the evaluation process. This study further conducts a sensitivity analysis to examine how two uncertainty factors (namely, investment cost and wind energy production) influence the economic and environmental value of renewable energy projects.

• Proceedings of the Korean Nuclear Society Conference
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• 1996.05b
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• pp.429-434
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• 1996

K-REM［1］, which is under development as a realistic evaluation model of large break LOCA, is applied to the analysis of cold leg guillotine break of Ulchin 3&4. Fuel parameters on which statistical analysis of their effects on the peak cladding temperature (PCT) are made and system parameters on which the concept of limiting value approach (LVA) are applied, are determined from the single parameter sensitivity study. 3 parameters of fuel gap conductance, fuel thermal conductivity and power peaking factor are selected as fuel related ones and 4 parameters of axial power shape, reactor power, decay heat and the gas pressure of safety injection tank (SIT) are selected as plant system related ones. Response surface of PCT is generated from the plant calculation results and on which Monte Carlo sampling is made to get plant application uncertainty which is statistically combined with code uncertainty to produce the 95th percentile PCT. From the break spectrum analysis, blowdown PCT of 1350.23 K and reflood PCT of 1195.56 K are obtained for break discharge coefficients of 0.8 and 0.5, respectively.

• Journal of Korean Port Research
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• v.11 no.2
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• pp.191-202
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• 1997

As the suitability of berth allocation will ultimately have a significant influence on the performance of a berth, a great deal of attention should be given to berth allocation. Generally, a berth allocation problem has conflicting factors between servers and users. In addition, there is uncertainty in great extent caused by various factors such as departure delay, inclement weather on route, poor handling equipment, a lack of storage space, and other factors contribute to the uncertainty of arrival and berthing time. Thus, it is necessary to establish berth allocation planning which reflects the positions of interested parties and the ambiguity of parameters. For this, a berth allocation problem is formulated by fuzzy 0-1 integer programming introducing the concept of maximum Position Shift(MPS). But, the above approach has limitations in terms of computational time and computer memory when the size of problem is increased. It also has limitations with respect to the integration of other sub-systems such as ship planning system and yard planning system. For solving such problem, this paper focuses particularly on developing an efficient heuristic algorithm as a new technique of getting an effective solution. And also the suggested algorithm is verified through the illustrative examples and empirical appalicaton to BCTOC.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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• v.18 no.6
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• pp.842-848
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• 2008

This paper deal with uncertainty problem by using Type-2 fuzzy logic set for nonlinear system modeling. We design Type-2 fuzzy logic system in which the antecedent and the consequent part of rules are given as Type-2 fuzzy set and also analyze the performance of the ensuing nonlinear model with uncertainty. Here, the apexes of the antecedent membership functions of rules are decided by C-means clustering algorithm and the apexes of the consequent membership functions of rules are learned by using back-propagation based on gradient decent method. Also, the parameters related to the fuzzy model are optimized by means of particle swarm optimization. The proposed model is demonstrated with the aid of two representative numerical examples, such as mathematical synthetic data set and Mackey-Glass time series data set and also we discuss the approximation as well as generalization abilities for the model.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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• v.20 no.3
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• pp.447-454
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• 2010

This paper presents multiple fuzzy prediction systems based on an Interval type-2 TSK fuzzy Logic System so that the uncertainty and the hidden characteristics of nonlinear data can be reflected more effectively to improve prediction quality. In proposed method, multiple fuzzy systems are adopted to handle the nonlinear characteristics of data, and each of multiple system is constructed by using interval type-2 TSK fuzzy logic because it can deal with the uncertainty and the characteristics of data better than type-1 TSK fuzzy logic and other methods. For input of each system, the first-order difference transformation method are used because the difference data generated from it can provide more stable statistical information to each system than the original data. Finally, computer simulations are performed to show the effectiveness of the proposed method for two typical time series examples.

• Korean System Dynamics Review
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• v.1 no.1
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• pp.133-157
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• 2000

This paper deals with the social system from the point of system thinking consisting the fundamental construct of system dynamics. The Bertalanffy's general system theory, having been criticized because of its ambiguity, and the complex science theory, emerging system theory, are integrated by using the system thinking which is characterized with three concepts, 'feedback thinking', 'dynamic thinking', 'operational thinking'. In the integration, system thinking suggests the dynamic pattern of the social system have not only an equilibrium status but also complex status. The science of complexity gives an implication to system dynamics the important of the uncertainty and complexity if we interpret the social system as an open system. To show more concrete description, I simulate the cooperation model based on the iterated prisoner dilemma. The simulation results show the diverse patterns of cooperation and betrayal. Especially the sensitivity of initial payoff will cause the chaotic strategic landscapes as the game gose on. These results mean that we should not give the hasty prescription to control social system artificially. Because social system retains the self-organizing force in itself.