• Title/Summary/Keyword: system uncertainty

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A Quantitative Study of the Effects of a Price Collar in the Korea Emissions Trading System on Emissions and Costs (배출권거래제 가격상하한제가 배출량 및 감축비용에 미치는 영향에 대한 정량적 연구)

  • Bae, Kyungeun;Yoo, Taejoung;Ahn, Young-Hwan
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.31 no.2
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    • pp.261-290
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    • 2022
  • Although market stabilization measures have been triggered in the K-ETS, carbon price is still under uncertainty. Considering Korea's 2030 enhanced reduction target announced in October 2021, it is crucial to have practical stabilization measures to appropriately deal with price uncertainty. This study examines the quantitative effects of a price collar, which is considered as a means of alleviating price uncertainty, on expected cumulative emissions and abatement costs. There are three main scenarios: carbon tax, emissions trading system, and emissions trading system with a price collar. Monte Carlo simulation was conducted to reflect uncertainty in emission. There are several results as follows: 1) In a price collar, domestic emission target is likely to be achieved with a lower expected abatement cost than other scenarios. In addition, there is a small amount of excess emissions in this research and it would be not critical(0.1% excess than target); 2) Prohibiting banking increases the expected abatement cost. This is because firms can not intertemporally reallocate allowances to match the firm's optimal emissions path; 3) With the adoption of a price collar, government's net revenue can be positive even if the government's purchase volume of emissions allowances is more than sales volume. This is because the government sells them at price ceiling and purchases them at price floor.

Fixed Charge Transportation Problem and Its Uncertain Programming Model

  • Sheng, Yuhong;Yao, Kai
    • Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.183-187
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    • 2012
  • In this paper, we study the fixed charge transportation problem with uncertain variables. The fixed charge transportation problem has two kinds of costs: direct cost and fixed charge. The direct cost is the cost associated with each source-destination pair, and the fixed charge occurs when the transportation activity takes place in the corresponding source-destination pair. The uncertain fixed charge transportation problem is modeled on the basis of uncertainty theory. According to inverse uncertainty distribution, the model can be transformed into a deterministic form. Finally, in order to solve the uncertain fixed charge transportation problem, a numerical example is given to show the application of the model and algorithm.

Prediction of unmeasured mode shapes and structural damage detection using least squares support vector machine

  • Kourehli, Seyed Sina
    • Structural Monitoring and Maintenance
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    • v.5 no.3
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    • pp.379-390
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    • 2018
  • In this paper, a novel and effective damage diagnosis algorithm is proposed to detect and estimate damage using two stages least squares support vector machine (LS-SVM) and limited number of attached sensors on structures. In the first stage, LS-SVM1 is used to predict the unmeasured mode shapes data based on limited measured modal data and in the second stage, LS-SVM2 is used to predicting the damage location and severity using the complete modal data from the first-stage LS-SVM1. The presented methods are applied to a three story irregular frame and cantilever plate. To investigate the noise effects and modeling errors, two uncertainty levels have been considered. Moreover, the performance of the proposed methods has been verified through using experimental modal data of a mass-stiffness system. The obtained damage identification results show the suitable performance of the proposed damage identification method for structures in spite of different uncertainty levels.

$H^{\inf}$ controller design for submerged vehicle under model uncertainty and sea wave disturbances (모델 불확실성과 해파외란을 고려한 고려한 몰수체의 $H^{\inf}$ 제어기 설계)

  • 이재명;류동기;이갑래;박홍배
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Telematics and Electronics B
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    • v.33B no.4
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    • pp.17-26
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    • 1996
  • A submerged vehicle which is a nonlinear multivariable system must be designed to be roubst against inner-outer perturbations and hydrodynamic disturbances induces maneuvering operation. But a practical design of motion controller is limited by both mathematical modeling error and linearization errors. Performance of a motion controller based on traditional design method is very poor when the vehicle motion is under wave force distrubacnes near sea surface. Therefore, this ppaer proposes a design method of $^{\infty}$ controller under model uncertainty and sea wave disturbances. performance of the controllers by both computer simulation and HILS (hardwave in the loop simulation) shows that $H^{\infty}$ controller is more robust than PID controller under model uncertainty and high sea state...

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Uncertainties estimation of AOGCM-based climate scenarios for impact assessment on water resources (수자원 영향평가를 위한 기후변화 시나리오의 불확실성 평가)

  • Park E-Hyung;Im Eun-Soon;Kwon Won-Tae;Lee Eun-Jeong
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2005.05b
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    • pp.138-142
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    • 2005
  • The change of precipitation and temperature due to the global. warming eventually caused the variation of water availability in terms of potential evapotranspiration, soil moisture, and runoff. In this reason national long-term water resource planning should be considered the effect of climate change. Study of AOGCM-based scenario to proposed the plausible future states of the climate system has become increasingly important for hydrological impact assessment. Future climate changes over East Asia are projected from the coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 scenarios using multi-model ensembles (MMEs) method (Min et al. 2004). MME method is used to reduce the uncertainty of individual models. However, the uncertainty increases are larger over the small area than the large area. It is demonstrated that the temperature increases is larger over continental area than oceanic area in the 21st century.

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A Study on the Uncertainty of MVRS (포구속도측정레이더의 불확도에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Yong-Suk;Choi, Ju-Ho
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.94-100
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    • 2007
  • MVRS's measuring principles are based on the Doppler principle. It measures the velocities near the muzzle using the doppler signal output from the antenna and then predicts the velocity of the bullet leaving the muzzle by performing the regression analysis on previous measured velocities. There are a number of error sources when calculating the muzzle velocity. Antenna has long term frequency stability error and the doppler signal from the antenna has noise. These two error sources influence the accuracy of estimated velocities from the doppler signal. Estimated velocity errors result in the random error of data statistics. And when performing a regression analysis these random error components are transferred to the fitting error component. This study also analyzed the error components according to the hardware limitations of MVRS-700 and the signal processing method, and presented the calculated uncertainty of muzzle velocity.

Uncertainty Analysis in Potential Transformer Calibration Using a High Voltage Capacitance Bridge

  • Jung, Jae-Kap;Lee, Sang-Hwa;Kang, Jeon-Hong;Kwon, Sung-Won;Kim, Myung-Soo
    • Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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    • v.2 no.3
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    • pp.401-407
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    • 2007
  • Precise absolute measurement of the errors in a potential transformer (PT) can be achieved using high voltage capacitance bridge (HVCB) and capacitive divider. The uncertainty in a PT measurement using the HVCB system was evaluated by considering the overall factors affecting during the calibration of a PT. The expanded uncertainties are found to be not more than $30{\times}10^{-6}$ for ratio and $30{\mu}rad$ for phase up to the primary voltage of $V_p=22kV$. For same PTs, the measured errors in KRISS (Korea Research Institute of Standards and Science) using our bridge are well coincide with those in NMIA (National Measurement Institute of Australia) and PTB (Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt) within the corresponding uncertainties.

Automated data interpretation for practical bridge identification

  • Zhang, J.;Moon, F.L.;Sato, T.
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.46 no.3
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    • pp.433-445
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    • 2013
  • Vibration-based structural identification has become an important tool for structural health monitoring and safety evaluation. However, various kinds of uncertainties (e.g., observation noise) involved in the field test data obstruct automation system identification for accurate and fast structural safety evaluation. A practical way including a data preprocessing procedure and a vector backward auto-regressive (VBAR) method has been investigated for practical bridge identification. The data preprocessing procedure serves to improve the data quality, which consists of multi-level uncertainty mitigation techniques. The VBAR method provides a determinative way to automatically distinguish structural modes from extraneous modes arising from uncertainty. Ambient test data of a cantilever beam is investigated to demonstrate how the proposed method automatically interprets vibration data for structural modal estimation. Especially, structural identification of a truss bridge using field test data is also performed to study the effectiveness of the proposed method for real bridge identification.

DISTURBANCE ATTENUATION FOR A CLASS OF DISCRETE-TIME SWITCHED SYSTEMS WITH EXPONENTIAL UNCERTAINTY

  • Li, Changlin;Long, Fei;Ren, Guohui
    • Journal of the Korean Mathematical Society
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    • v.48 no.4
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    • pp.775-795
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    • 2011
  • The disturbance attenuation problem for a class of discretetime switched linear systems with exponential uncertainties via switched state feedback and switched dynamic output feedback is investigated, respectively. By using Taylor series approximation and convex polytope technique, exponentially uncertain discrete-time switched linear system is transformed into an equivalent switched polytopic model with additive norm bounded uncertainty. For such equivalent switched model, one designs its switching strategy and associated state feedback controllers and dynamic output feedback controllers so that whole switched model is asymptotical stabilization with H-in nity disturbance attenuation base on switched Lyapunov function and LMI approach. Finally, two numerical examples are presented to illustrate our results.

Fabrication Uncertainty and Noise Issues in High-Precision MEMS Actuators and Sensors

  • Cho, Young-Ho;Lee, Won-Chul;Han, Ki-Ho
    • JSTS:Journal of Semiconductor Technology and Science
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    • v.2 no.4
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    • pp.280-287
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    • 2002
  • We present technical issues involved in the development of actuators and sensors for applications to high-precision Micro Electro Mechanical System (MEMS). The technical issues include fabrication uncertainty and noise disturbance, causing major difficulties for MEMS to achieve high-precision actuation and detection functions. For nano-precision actuators, we solve the fabrication instability and electrical noise problems using digital actuators coupled with nonlinear mechanical modulators. For the high-precision capacitive sensors, we present a branched finger electrodes using high-amplitude anti-phase sensing signals. We also demonstrate the potential applications of the nanoactuators and nanodetectors to high-precision positioning MEMS.