• Atmosphere
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.1-18
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• 2015

The most objective way to overcome the limitation of numerical weather prediction model is to represent the uncertainty of prediction by introducing probabilistic forecast. The uncertainty of the numerical weather prediction system developed due to the parameterization of unresolved scale motions and the energy losses from the sub-scale physical processes. In this study, we focused on the growth of model errors. We performed ensemble forecast to represent model uncertainty. By employing the multi-physics scheme (PHYS) and the stochastic kinetic energy backscatter scheme (SKEBS) in simulating typhoon Rusa (2002), we assessed the performance level of the two schemes. The both schemes produced better results than the control run did in the ensemble mean forecast of the track. The results using PHYS improved by 28% and those based on SKEBS did by 7%. Both of the ensemble mean errors of the both schemes increased rapidly at the forecast time 84 hrs. The both ensemble spreads increased gradually during integration. The results based on SKEBS represented model errors very well during the forecast time of 96 hrs. After the period, it produced an under-dispersive pattern. The simulation based on PHYS overestimated the ensemble mean error during integration and represented the real situation well at the forecast time of 120 hrs. The displacement speed of the typhoon based on PHYS was closest to the best track, especially after landfall. In the sensitivity tests of the model uncertainty of SKEBS, ensemble mean forecast was sensitive to the physics parameterization. By adjusting the forcing parameter of SKEBS, the default experiment improved in the ensemble spread, ensemble mean errors, and moving speed.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.39 no.4
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• pp.137-146
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• 2016

In recent years, business environment is faced with multi uncertainty that have not been suffered in the past. As supply chain is getting expanded and longer, the flow of information, material and production is also being complicated. It is well known that development service industry using application software has various uncertainty in random events such as supply and demand fluctuation of developer's capcity, project effective date after winning a contract, manpower cost (or revenue), subcontract cost (or purchase), and overrun due to developer's skill-level. This study intends to social contribution through attempts to optimize enterprise's goal by supply chain management platform to balance demand and supply and stochastic programming which is basically applied in order to solve uncertainty considering economical and operational risk at solution supplier. In Particular, this study emphasizes to determine allocation of internal and external manpower of developers using S&OP (Sales & Operations Planning) as monthly resource input has constraint on resource's capability that shared in industry or task. This study is to verify how Stochastic Programming such as Markowitz's MV (Mean Variance) model or 2-Stage Recourse Model is flexible and efficient than Deterministic Programming in software enterprise field by experiment with process and data from service industry which is manufacturing software and performing projects. In addition, this study is also to analysis how profit and labor input plan according to scope of uncertainty is changed based on Pareto Optimal, then lastly it is to enumerate limitation of the study extracted drawback which can be happened in real business environment and to contribute direction in future research considering another applicable methodology.

• Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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• v.36 no.5
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• pp.373-384
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• 2020

Hydrological models are based on a combination of parameters that describe the hydrological characteristics and processes within a watershed. For this reason, the model performance and accuracy are highly dependent on the parameters. However, model uncertainties caused by parameters with stochastic characteristics need to be considered. As a follow-up to the study conducted by Choi et al (2020), who developed a relatively simple semi-distributed hydrological model, we propose a tool to estimate the posterior distribution of model parameters using the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, a type of Markov-Chain Monte Carlo technique, and analyze the uncertainty of model parameters and simulated stream flow. In addition, the uncertainty caused by the parameters of each version is investigated using the lumped and semi-distributed versions of the applied model to the Hapcheon Dam watershed. The results suggest that the uncertainty of the semi-distributed model parameters was relatively higher than that of the lumped model parameters because the spatial variability of input data such as geomorphological and hydrometeorological parameters was inherent to the posterior distribution of the semi-distributed model parameters. Meanwhile, no significant difference existed between the two models in terms of uncertainty of the simulation outputs. The statistical goodness of fit of the simulated stream flows against the observed stream flows showed satisfactory reliability in both the semi-distributed and the lumped models, but the seasonality of the stream flow was reproduced relatively better by the distributed model.

• Journal of Korean Clinical Nursing Research
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.314-326
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• 2020

Purpose: This study was conducted to examine the effects of uncertainty, social support, and sick role behavior on health-related quality of life in patients with peripheral arterial disease. Methods: This study is a descriptive research using self-reporting questionnaire. Data were collected from 167 patients with peripheral arterial disease. Measurement tools were Multidimensional Scale of Perceived Social Support(MSPSS), Mishel's Uncertainty in Illness Scale (MUIS), Sick role behavior measurement tools and SF-36 Version I. The data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, correlation, and regression analysis by using SPSS/WIN 24.0. Results: Factors that significantly influenced physical health-related quality of life were age (β=-.19, p=.010), monthly income (β=.17, p=.027), uncertainty (β=-.29, p<.001), and exercise and rest (β=.28, p<.001) that all together accounted for 32.6% of the variance. Factors that significantly influenced mental health-related quality of life were monthly income (β=.20, p=.015), drinking (β=.17, p=.040), uncertainty (β=-.24, p=.001), and exercise and rest in sick role behavior (β=.26, p=.003) that all together accounted for 18.2% of the variance. Social support was an insignificant factor on physical and mental health-related quality of life. Conclusion: To improve the health-related quality of life of people with peripheral arterial disease, it is necessary to develop a systematic nursing intervention program including a strong support system, education, strategies for alcohol abstinence, and exercise and rest therapy.

• Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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• v.57 no.5
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• pp.262-270
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• 2020

An outdoor free-running model test system was designed for assessing ship maneuverability with test uncertainty. The test model was a surface combatant of tumblehome hull geometry. The straight forward tests were conducted first to obtain the relationship between the propeller revolution rate and advance speed. During the outdoor tests, the propeller revolution rate to achieve a certain Froude number condition was higher than that in the indoor free-running model tests. Turning circle and zigzag tests for evaluating ship maneuverability criteria were carried out at the propeller revolution rate determined by the straight forward test results. The random and systematic standard uncertainties of maneuvering criteria were obtained by repeated tests and comparison with the indoor free-running model test results, respectively. The test uncertainty was largely dominated by the systematic standard uncertainty, while the random standard uncertainty was small with good repeatability.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.43 no.4
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• pp.178-189
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• 2020

The purpose of this study was to analyze structural relationships with regard to the effect of customer integration, which is a type of integration in the supply chain, and market orientation of supply chain on the resulting change in the supply chain and management performance. The results of analysis in this study are as follows: First, customer integration and market orientation had a positive effect on reducing the flexibility and uncertainty of SCM. The decreased flexibility and uncertainty of SCM had a positive effect on non-financial performance, which also had a positive effect on financial performance. Second, customer integration and market orientation had a positive effect on financial and non-financial performance indirectly by decreasing the flexibility and uncertainty of SCM. Third, the effect of customer integration and uncertainty of SCM on the flexibility of SCM changed depending on the position in the supply chain; the effect was larger in the distribution group. The implications based on the analysis results are as follows: It is expected that the ability to deal with market changes in the overall supply chain is improved by laying the foundation for cooperation through establishing information infrastructure, including sharing information with trade partners and integrating systems, and implementing customer integration based on these achievements. It is also necessary to consider the business types and characteristics of individual companies in establishing information infrastructure.

• 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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• 1997.10a
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• pp.411-413
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• 1997

This paper presents the problem of fault-tolerant robust supervisory control of timed discrete event systems (DESs). First the concept of faults is quantitatively defined in timed DESs and fault tolerable event sequences are presented as a desired legal language. Given a timed DES with model uncertainty, the conditions for the existence of a supervisor which always guarantees fault tolerable event sequences embedded in the system are derived.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems Conference
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• 1998.06a
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• pp.552-555
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• 1998

In dealing with representing knowledge under uncertainty there is a sustain tendency to increase flexibility in order to avoid problems of inconsistency in the knowledge. Many knowledge systems(information retrieval systems, expert system) include hybrid representation models. Funny retrieval systems appear as a complement or as an enrichment of this models. In this paper, we describe dynamic rule modification through situation assessment for uncertainty management.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 2011.07a
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• pp.1348-1349
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• 2011

In this paper, The case of power performance test for 3MW wind-turbine system is introduced. For the verification of power curve and the certification of wind-turbine, power performance test is very important. This paper described the power testing results of a 3MW wind turbine and analysed an uncertainty about the testing. The measured power curves are very closely coincide with the calculated. Total uncertainty of measured data for Power Curve is 120~200kW in the rated power.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Precision Engineering
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• v.9 no.1
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• pp.18-28
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• 1992

시스템의 모델링 과정에서 발생될 수 있는 불확실성(uncertainty) 혹은 미지의 가반중량을 비롯한 외란에 의해 발생되는 불확실성 등을 갖고있는 로봇의 강건 추적제어기 설계를 위해 가변구조시스템(variable structure system) 이론을 적용하였다. 시스템 방정식과 연계하여 슬라이딩 모드가 존재하기 위한 조건을 구했으며, 입력 에 대한 불확실성은 매칭조건(matching condition)을 가정하여 다루었다. 기존의 방법에 비해 제어기 설계과정이 간단 명료하며 요구되는 궤적에 대한 추적제어 효과 또한 매우 우수함을 컴퓨터 시뮬레이션을 통해 입증하였다.