• Title/Summary/Keyword: system uncertainty

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Towards remote sensing of sediment thickness and depth to bedrock in shallow seawater using airborne TEM (항공 TEM 을 이용한 천해지역에서의 퇴적층 두께 및 기반암 심도 원격탐사에 관하여)

  • Vrbancich, Julian;Fullagar, Peter K.
    • Geophysics and Geophysical Exploration
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.77-88
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    • 2007
  • Following a successful bathymetric mapping demonstration in a previous study, the potential of airborne EM for seafloor characterisation has been investigated. The sediment thickness inferred from 1D inversion of helicopter-borne time-domain electromagnetic (TEM) data has been compared with estimates based on marine seismic studies. Generally, the two estimates of sediment thickness, and hence depth to resistive bedrock, were in reasonable agreement when the seawater was ${\sim}20\;m$ deep and the sediment was less than ${\sim}40\;m$ thick. Inversion of noisy synthetic data showed that recovered models closely resemble the true models, even when the starting model is dissimilar to the true model, in keeping with the uniqueness theorem for EM soundings. The standard deviations associated with shallow seawater depths inferred from noisy synthetic data are about ${\pm}5\;%$ of depth, comparable with the errors of approximately ${\pm}1\;m$ arising during inversion of real data. The corresponding uncertainty in depth-to-bedrock estimates, based on synthetic data inversion, is of order of ${\pm}10\;%$. The mean inverted depths of both seawater and sediment inferred from noisy synthetic data are accurate to ${\sim}1\;m$, illustrating the improvement in accuracy resulting from stacking. It is concluded that a carefully calibrated airborne TEM system has potential for surveying sediment thickness and bedrock topography, and for characterising seafloor resistivity in shallow coastal waters.

Mechanical Properties of Concrete with Statistical Variations (통계적 분산을 고려한 콘크리트의 역학적 특성)

  • Kim, Jee-Sang;Shin, Jeong-Ho
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.21 no.6
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    • pp.789-796
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    • 2009
  • The randomness in the strength of a RC member is caused mainly by the variability of the mechanical properties of concrete and steel, the dimensions of concrete cross sections, and the placement of reinforcing bars and so on . Among those variations, the randomness and uncertainty of mechanical properties of concrete, such as compressive strength, tensile strength, and elastic modulus give the most significant influences and show relatively large statistical variations. In Korea, there has been little effort for the construction of its own statistical models for mechanical properties of concrete and steel, thus the foreign data have been utilized till now. In this paper, variability of compressive strength, tensile strength and elastic modulus of normal-weight structural concrete with various specified design compressive strength levels are examined based on the data obtained from a number of published and unpublished sources in this country and additional laboratory tests done by the authors. The inherent probabilistic models for compressive and tensile strength of normal-weight concrete are proposed as Gaussian distribution. Also, the relationships between compressive and splitting tensile strength and between compressive strength and elastic modulus in current KCI Code are verified and new ones are suggested based on local data.

Predicting Construction Project Cost using Sensitivity Analysis in Stochastic Project Scheduling Simulation (SPSS) (확률 통계적 일정 시뮬레이선 - 민감도 분석을 이용한 최종 공사비 예측)

  • Lee Dong-Eun;Park Chan-Sik
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.6 no.4 s.26
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    • pp.80-90
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    • 2005
  • Activity durations retain probabilistic and stochastic natures due to diverse factors causing the delay or acceleration of activity completion. These natures make the final project duration to be a random variable. These factors are the major source of financial risk. Extending the Stochastic Project Scheduling Simulation system (SPSS) developed in previous research; this research presents a method to estimate how the final project duration behaves when activity durations change randomly. The final project cost is estimated by considering the fluctuation of indirect cost, which occurs due to the delay or acceleration of activity completion, along with direct cost assigned to an activity. The final project cost is estimated by considering how indirect cost behaves when activity duration change. The method quantifies the amount of contingency to cover the expected delay of project delivery. It is based on the quantitative analysis to obtain the descriptive statistics from the simulation outputs (final project durations). Existing deterministic scheduling method apply an arbitrary figures to the amount of delay contingency with uncertainty. However, the stochastic method developed in this research allows computing the amount of delay contingency with certainty and certain degree of confidence. An example project is used to illustrate the quantitative analysis method using simulation. When the statistical location and shape of probability distribution functions defining activity durations change, how the final project duration and cost behave are ascertained using automated sensitivity analysis method

Optimal Design of Batch-Storage Network Including Uncertainty and Waste Treatment Processes (불확실한 공정과 불량품 처리체계를 포함하는 공정-저장조 망 최적설계)

  • Yi, Gyeongbeom;Lee, Euy-Soo
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.46 no.3
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    • pp.585-597
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    • 2008
  • The aim of this study was to find an analytic solution to the problem of determining the optimal capacity (lot-size) of a batch-storage network to meet demand for a finished product in a system undergoing random failures of operating time and/or batch material. The superstructure of the plant considered here consists of a network of serially and/or parallel interlinked batch processes and storage units. The production processes transform a set of feedstock materials into another set of products with constant conversion factors. The final product demand flow is susceptible to short-term random variations in the cycle time and batch size as well as long-term variations in the average trend. Some of the production processes have random variations in product quantity. The spoiled materials are treated through regeneration or waste disposal processes. All other processes have random variations only in the cycle time. The objective function of the optimization is minimizing the total cost, which is composed of setup and inventory holding costs as well as the capital costs of constructing processes and storage units. A novel production and inventory analysis, the PSW (Periodic Square Wave) model, provides a judicious graphical method to find the upper and lower bounds of random flows. The advantage of this model is that it provides a set of simple analytic solutions while also maintaining a realistic description of the random material flows between processes and storage units; as a consequence of these analytic solutions, the computation burden is significantly reduced.

Environmental Direct Payments and Water Emissions (친환경직불제에 따른 농작 선택과 수질오염)

  • Kim, Ho-Seok
    • Journal of Environmental Policy
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.61-81
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    • 2007
  • Types of agricultural policy can be catagorized into two general cases: price and income supports. Income supports are any government program designed to provide farmers with higher incomes than they would receive otherwise. These direct cash payments to farmers are known as "deficiency payment" or "direct payment" because they compensate the farmer for the failure of the market to provide farmers with adequate prices. The direct payment to environment-friendly agriculture is a form of income supports for the agriculture production using less pesticides and chemical fertilizers. Because no significant regulation exists on the use of fertilizers substituting chemical fertilizers for crop, the role of the payment on reducing environmental impacts of agriculture is not entirely clear. This uncertainty is likely to be particularly severe in the case that farmers with low-quality land showing greater demand for fertiliser have an incentive to transition to environment-friendly agriculture. The paper shows the case of the current payment system in Korea.

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The Nutritional Status by Stress on Freshmen of University (대학 신입생의 스트레스 민감 여부에 따른 영양상태)

  • Lee, Young-Hee;Rhie, Seung-Gyo;Won, Hyang-Rye
    • The Korean Journal of Community Living Science
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.81-95
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    • 2006
  • This study was made to find out how stress affect on nutrition status of the college freshmen who were experiencing physical growth and development as well as drastic emotional change. 400 male and female freshmen in 4 year colleges were surveyed respectively through the health check-up procedure for college entrance in February, In order to find out the stress in each group frustration, deprivation, lack of self efficacy, type A behavior and anxiety response were surveyed through 10 questions with total 40 points by assigning 4 points for each question. Diet Status was expressed by DDS (Dietary Diversity Score by 5 food groups) and DVS(Dietary Variety Score). 24-hrs recall method was used to find out the quantity of daily nutrient of EAR(estimated adquacy ratio) by KDRIs(Korean Dietary Recommended Intakes). Nutrition level was analyzed by Can-Pro for professionals (Korea Nutrition Association). And for the quality intake, percentage was calculated and MAR(Mean Adequacy Ratio) were produced. Highest point was obtained in the stress of anxiety with the total 40 score of 30.20, and the scores were 29.79, 28.67, and 28.39 for deprivation, type A behavior and frustration respectively. There was no difference of blood components in accordance with stress type. Stress type was divided into less sensitive group and highly sensitive one and the relationship with the blood nutrient status was observed. The difference of blood component and blood pressure in sensitive and highly sensitive groups was observed in deprivation and anxiety. The index of blood pressure(p<0.05), hemoglobin(p<0.01), HDL-cholesterol(p<0.05), and Fe(p<0.05) was high in the deprivation of sensitive group. Blood pressure and hemoglobin was high in type A of sensitive group(p<0.05). And the contents of blood triglyceride was high in the anxiety of sensitive group(p<0.001) The result of nutrition intake analysis according to stress type showed that there was low intake for energy, riboflavin, and niacin. When the degree of deprivation was high there was a lack of riboflavin intake and there was no significant difference of nutrition intake in lack of self efficacy, type A behavior and anxiety response. Thus, it is necessary for colleges to educate the students to maintain mental stability through various programs and activities after catching a kind and extent of the stress college students we meeting with like the confusion of value system, open heterosexual relationship, and the employment difficulties linked with political uncertainty and economic recession.

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Water Quality Model Development for Loading Estimates from Paddy Field (논에서의 오염부하 예측을 위한 범용모형 개발)

  • Jeon, Ji-Hong;Hwang, Ha-Sun;Yoon, Kwang-Sik;Yoon, Chun-Gyeong
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.36 no.3 s.104
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    • pp.344-355
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    • 2003
  • Water quality model applicable paddy field was developed using field experiment during 1999 ${\sim}$ 2002. This model involves inputs from fertilization and sediment release as dirac delta function and continuous source function, respectively, and can simulate various processes such as ponded depth, surface drainage, total nitrogen concentration and total phosphorus concentration in a daily basis. The model was calibrated using data collected from field experiments which was irrigated with ground water and validated from field experiments which was irrigated with surface water. The nutrient concentration of surface water depended on the fertilization and dirac delta function can efficiently explain the valiance of nutrient concentration of surface water by fertilizer. As a result of calibration and validation, this model demonstrates good agreement. The model fit efficiencies ($R^2$) of ponded depth, surface concentration of TN and TP were 0.93,0.98 and 0.95, respectively for calibration, and those of TN and TP were 0.99 and 0.70, respectively for validation. We can apply lake and reservoir model to analysis paddy field considered with shallow ponded system, but it will need so many parameters and have much uncertainty. Fortunately, paddy field have a series of cultural practices yearly basis, such as irrigation-fertilization-forced drain-harvest with a similar time , so simple model may explain the mechanism for paddy field. Water quality model for paddy field developed in this study is simply, needs little parameters, but appeared high applicability to evaluate paddy filed drainage. We recommend this model to estimate nutrient loading from paddy field and establish best management practice.

Development of the Phased Array Ultrasonic Testing Technique for Nuclear Power Plant's Small Bore Piping Socket Weld (원전 소구경 배관 소켓용접부 위상배열 초음파검사 기술 개발)

  • Yoon, Byung-Sik;Kim, Yong-Sik;Lee, Jeong-Seok
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Nondestructive Testing
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    • v.33 no.4
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    • pp.368-375
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    • 2013
  • Failure of small bore piping welds is a recurring problem at nuclear power plants. And the socket weld cracking in small bore piping has caused unplanned plant shutdowns for repair and high economic impact on the plants. Consequently, early crack detection, including the detection of manufacturing defects, is of the utmost importance. Until now, the surface inspection methods has been applied according to ASME Section XI requirements. But the ultrasonic inspection as a volumetric method is also applying to enforce the inspection requirement. However, the conventional manual ultrasonic inspection techniques are used to detect service induced fatigue cracks. And there was uncertainty on manual ultrasonic inspection because of limited access to the welds and difficulties with contact between the ultrasonic probe and the OD(outer diameter) surface of small bore piping. In this study, phased array ultrasonic inspection technique is applied to increase inspection speed and reliability. To achieve this object, the 3.5 MHz phased array ultrasonic transducer are designed and fabricated. The manually encoded scanner was also developed to enhance contact conditions and maintain constant signal quality. Additionally inspection system is configured and inspection procedure is developed.

The Nature of Science Reflected in Exhibitions of Natural History Museums (자연사박물관의 전시에 반영된 과학의 본성)

  • Lee Sun-Kyung;Shin Myeong-Kyeong;Kim Chan-Jong
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.26 no.5
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    • pp.376-386
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    • 2005
  • This study investigated to describe how the nature of science is revealed in the four natural history museums in Korea. Natural history museums are well considered as informal settings of education, and the nature of science has been one of major topics stressed in science education. Therefore, the revelation of this topic is supposedly reflected in developing museum exhibitions. In each of the four target natural history museum or natural history exhibition, the representative exhibits subtitled by scientific inquiry and cases dealing with history of science were selected for the study. The analyzing exhibits focused on whether exhibitions were labeled with emphasis on declarative description or interpretative one. In analyzing the contents, the focus was on the concerns of scientists, scientific community, social and cultural aspects, uncertainty of scientific knowledge, and providing sufficient evidences. All things considered, it was hard to conclude that every target exhibit clearly considered the nature of science as an essential element, in designing and developing their exhibitions. More deliberate input of nature of science is suggested for worldly renowned natural history museums, because previous researches keep insisting that the nature of science would be more efficiently achieved in an informal educational setting rather than in classrooms.

Reliability Based Pile Bearing Capacity Evaluation (신뢰도에 근거한 말뚝의 지지력 평가)

  • Lee, In-Mo;Jo, Guk-Hwan;Lee, Jeong-Hak
    • Geotechnical Engineering
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.9-22
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    • 1995
  • The purpose of this study is to propose safety factors of pile bearing capacity based on the reliability analysis. Each prediction method involves various degrees of uncertainties. To account for these uncertainties in a systematic way, the ratios of the measured bearing capacity from pile load tests to the predicted bearing capacity are represented in the form of a probability density function. The safety factor for each design method is obtained so that the probability of pile foundation failure is less than 10-3. The Bayesian theorem is applied in a way that the distribution using static formulae is assumed to be the A-prior and the distribution using dynamic formulae or wave equation based methods is assumed to be the likelihood, and these two are combined to obtain the posterior which has the reduced uncertainty. The results of this study show that static formulae of the pile bearing capacity using the 5.p.7. N-value as well as dynamic formulae are highly unreliable and have to have the safety factor more than 7.4 : the wave equation analysis using PDA(Pile Driving Analyzer) system the most reliable with the safety factor close to 2.7. The safety factor could be reduced certain amount by adoption the Bayes methodology in pile design.

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