• Title/Summary/Keyword: system uncertainty

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Economic Assessment of Coal-fired & Nuclear Power Generation in the Year 2000 -Equal Health Hazard Risk Basis- (2000년대 원자력과 유연탄 화력 발전의 경제성 평가 -동일 보건 위험도 기준-)

  • Seong, Ki-Bong;Lee, Byong-Whi
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.171-185
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    • 1989
  • On the basis of equal health hazard risk, economic assessment of nuclear was compared with that of coal for the expansion planning of electric power generation in the year 2000. In comparing health risks, the risk of coal was roughly ten times higher than that of nuclear according to various previous risk assessments of energy system. The zero risk condition can never be achievable. Therefore, only excess relative health risk of coal over nuclear was considered as social cost. The social cost of health risk was estimated by calculation of mortality and morbidity costs. Mortality cost was $250,000 and morbidity cost was $90,000 in the year 2000.(1986US$) Through Cost/Benefit Analysis, the optimal emission standards of coal-fired power generation were predicted. These were obtained at the point of least social cost for power generation. In the year 2000, the optimal emission standard of SOx was analyzed as 165ppm for coal-fired power plants in Korea. From this assessment, economic comparison of nuclear and coal in the year 2000 showed that nuclear would be more economical than coal, whereas uncertainty of future power generation cost of nuclear would be larger than that of coal.

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Simulation of Unsaturated Fluid Flow on the 2nd Phase Facility at the Wolsong LILW Disposal Center (경주 중저준위방폐장 2단계 처분시설의 불포화 환경하에서 침투수 유동 해석)

  • Ha, Jaechul;Lee, Jeonghwan;Yoon, Jeonghyoun
    • Journal of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology(JNFCWT)
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.219-230
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    • 2017
  • This study was conducted to predict and evaluate the uncertainty of safety after closure of the second phase surface disposal facility of the Gyeongju intermediate and low level repository in Korea. In this study, four scenarios are developed considering both intact and degraded states of multi-layered covers and disposal containers; also, the fluid flow by a rainfall into the disposal facility is simulated. The rainfall conditions are implemented based on the monthly average data of the past 30 years (1985~2014); the simulation period is 300 years, the management period regulated by institutional provisions. As a result of the evaluation of the basic scenario, in which the integrity of both of the containers and the covers is maintained, it was confirmed that penetration of rainfall does not completely saturate the inside of the disposal facility. It is revealed that the multiple cover layers and concrete containers effectively play the role of barrier against the permeation of rainfall.

Radiative transfer analysis for Amon-Ra instrument

  • Seong, Se-Hyun;Ryu, Dong-Ok;Lee, Jae-Min;Hong, Jin-Suk;Kim, Seong-Hui;Yoon, Jee-Yeon;Park, Won-Hyun;Lee, Han-Shin;Park, Jong-Soo;Yu, Ji-Woong;Kim, Sug-Whan
    • Bulletin of the Korean Space Science Society
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    • 2009.10a
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    • pp.28.4-29
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    • 2009
  • The 'Amon-Ra' instrument of the proposed 'EARTHSHINE' satellite is a dual (i.e. imaging and energy) channel instrument for monitoring the total solar irradiance (TSI) and the Earth's irradiance at around the L1 halo orbit. Earlier studies for this instrument include, but not limited to, design and construction of breadboard Amon-Ra imaging channel, stray light suppression and system performance computation using Integrated Ray Tracing (IRT) technique. The Amon-Ra instrument is required to produce 0.3% in uncertainty for both Sunlight and Earthlight measurement. In this study, we report accurate estimation of the output electric signal derived from the orbital variation of radiant exitance from the Sun and the Earth arriving at the aperture and detector plane of the Amon-Ra. For this, orbital irradiance are computed analytically first and then confirmed by simulation using Integrated Ray Tracing (IRT) model. Specially, the results show the arriving power at the bolometer detector surface is $1.24{\mu}W$ for the Sunlight and $1.28{\mu}W$ for the Earthlight, producing the output signal pulses of 34.31 mV and 35.47 mV respectively. These results demonstrate successfully that the arriving radiative power is well within the bolometer detector dynamic range and, therefore, the proposed detector can be used for the in-orbit measurement sequence. We discuss the computational details and implications as well as the simulation results.

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Probabilistic Analysis for Stability Evaluation of Landslides Using Geo-spatial Information (지형공간 정보를 활용한 산사태 안정평가의 확률론적 해석)

  • Park, Byung-Soo
    • Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
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    • v.14 no.3 s.37
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    • pp.55-62
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    • 2006
  • The purpose of the current research is to evaluate the possibility of landslides by using geo-spatial information system. Geological information has been summarized and stability analysis for infinite slopes has been conducted based on the force equilibrium. In addition, the analysis of landslides was performed based on probabilistic approach by using probabilistic variables which can include uncertainty of input parameters. For the purpose of testifing the applicability of the analysis method actual geological data from a construction site was obtained, thereby performing both a preliminary analysis for a large area and detailed analysis for a better result. As a result of the current analysis several issues such as the possibility of development of landslides, detailed analysis of where landslides are most likely to be developed were analysed by using two concepts of safety and index of failure probability.

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Typical Consideration On The Basic Model of Decision Making (의사결정의 기본 MODEL에 관한 유형적 고찰)

  • 김면성
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.6 no.9
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    • pp.111-124
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    • 1983
  • The basic model of decision problem the enterprise is conforonted with includes the following 3 elements ; 1) Elements that can not be controlled by the decision maker : In the thesis elements are named environmental variables, and varied itself according to the change of environmental condition. 2) Elements that can be controlled by the decision maker ; These elements are called decision elements in the thesis and variable according to the event. 3) object of decision making : The degree of achievement to the object is identified by taking various criteria- The index indicating the degree of achievement to the object whatever criterion is applied is called object function in the thesis. It's the fanetion of environmental variable, decision variable and object function. The relation between them brings forth the relation formula that characterize the each problem. The basic types of decision making model use in the thesis are as following ; 1) The problem of decision making under conditions of certainty. 2) The problem of decision making under conditions of risk. 3) The problem of decision making under conditions of uncertainty. 4) The problem of decision making under competitive condition. in general case that the Profit of two decision makers varies, what we regard the decision that make the sum of profit of two men maximum as the best choice for two men has a reasonability in certain case. When the sum of profit two men is zero, by taking toe promise that ail of them art according to the min-max criteria and by extending the object of choice to the mixed strategy. We certify the existance of equilibrium solution and admit them as the best solution of competitive model in general.

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The Turnover Intention Factors of the Experienced Beginners of Small and Medium Enterprises (중소기업 초기경력자들의 이직의도에 미치는 영향 요인)

  • Woo, Sang Ho;Shin, Wan Seon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.40 no.3
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    • pp.123-137
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    • 2017
  • Competitiveness of small and medium companies often rely on the competency of their employees. Many employees however try to move to better environments if possible, which results in high uncertainty in maintaining solid human resources. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the influencing factors of turnover intention and organizational loyalty of the early experienced, especially three to five years experienced, employees in the small and medium enterprises. A survey had been conducted using both LMX (Leader Member eXchange) and TMX (Team Member eXchange) as an effort to test the impact of strategic human resource management factors on turnover intension and organizational loyalty. It has been observed that the level of LMX is critical on the turnover intension, while the levels of LMX and TMX are positively related to the organizational loyalty. Especially significant mediation effect affects on the organizational loyalty for TMX via LMX in the serial structure. The human resource management factors become effective under the circumstances where leader and team members exchange activities are activated. These findings can be used in reducing turnover intention and increasing organizational loyalty of early experienced employees by enhancing the leadership training of middle level managers of the small and medium enterprises organizations. Besides, a set of active communication channels should be provided for the young employees so that they can share their work experiences and difficulties within the organization. The key results of this study may help the practitioners set up a management plan to maintain a low turnover rate for their organizations.

Optimal Design of Process-Inventory Network under Cycle Time and Batch Quantity Uncertainties (이중 불확실성하의 공정-저장조 망구조 최적설계)

  • Suh, Kuen-Hack;Yi, Gyeong-Beom
    • Journal of Institute of Control, Robotics and Systems
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.305-312
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    • 2010
  • The aim of this study is to find an analytic solution to the problem of determining the optimal capacity of a batch-storage network to meet demand for finished products in a system undergoing joint random variations of operating time and batch material loss. The superstructure of the plant considered here consists of a network of serially and/or parallel interlinked batch processes and storage units. The production processes transform a set of feedstock materials into another set of products with constant conversion factors. The final product demand flow is susceptible to joint random variations in the cycle time and batch size. The production processes have also joint random variations in cycle time and product quantity. The spoiled materials are treated through regeneration or waste disposal processes. The objective function of the optimization is minimizing the total cost, which is composed of setup and inventory holding costs as well as the capital costs of constructing processes and storage units. A novel production and inventory analysis the PSW (Periodic Square Wave) model, provides a judicious graphical method to find the upper and lower bounds of random flows. The advantage of this model is that it provides a set of simple analytic solutions while also maintaining a realistic description of the random material flows between processes and storage units; as a consequence of these analytic solutions, the computation burden is significantly reduced. The proposed method has the potential to rapidly provide very useful data on which to base investment decisions during the early plant design stage. It should be of particular use when these decisions must be made in a highly uncertain business environment.

Technological Change and Organizational Strategy as an Evolutionary Process (진화론적 관점의 기술혁신의 동태성: 정보기술산업과 조직경쟁유형의 진화)

  • Cha, Dae-Kyu
    • Korean Business Review
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    • v.11
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    • pp.15-38
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    • 1998
  • This study explores the evolution of technical innovation over time. It focuses on sectors of the information technology because this industry can be referred to as one of the most dynamic industries of all times. Following evolutionary theorists, we argue that technological change is gradual and that superior firms and technologies are reward by the' selection' environment. In the initial phase of the industry life cycle, technological change is expected to be radical and uncertainty is high. Over time a product or technology is likely to arise which stands out above all other products or technologies. These so-called 'basic designs' serve as sorts of 'technological guideposts' for further developments in the technology. Once a basic design established, technological progress tends to follow consistent paths or trajectories. The cumulative character of technological progress facilitates a rapid expansion of the boundaries of the technology until the natural limits of the technology are approached and technological progress slows down. Following ecological theories, supply-side developments in the industry are described on the basis of five different organizational types. On the basis of this pattern of market and technological evolution we came up with seven basic propositions.

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(Robust Non-fragile $H^\infty$ Controller Design for Parameter Uncertain Systems) (파라미터 불확실성 시스템에 대한 견실 비약성 $H^\infty$ 제어기 설계)

  • Jo, Sang-Hyeon;Kim, Gi-Tae;Park, Hong-Bae
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea SC
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    • v.39 no.3
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    • pp.183-190
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    • 2002
  • This paper describes the synthesis of robust and non-fragile H$\infty$ state feedback controllers for linear varying systems with affine parameter uncertainties, and static state feedback controller with structured uncertainty. The sufficient condition of controller existence, the design method of robust and non-fragile H$\infty$ static state feedback controller, and the set of controllers which satisfies non-fragility are presented. The obtained condition can be rewritten as parameterized Linear Matrix Inequalities(PLMls), that is, LMIs whose coefficients are functions of a parameter confined to a compact set. However, in contrast to LMIs, PLMIs feasibility problems involve infinitely many LMIs hence are inherently difficult to solve numerically. Therefore PLMls are transformed into standard LMI problems using relaxation techniques relying on separated convexity concepts. We show that the resulting controller guarantees the asymptotic stability and disturbance attenuation of the closed loop system in spite of controller gain variations within a degree.

Adaptive Multi-routing Protocol for a High Mobility MANET (변동성이 높은 이동 애드 혹 네트워크를 위한 적응적 다중 라우팅 프로토콜 적용 기법)

  • Deepak, G.C.;Heo, Ung;Choi, Jae-Ho
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea TC
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    • v.45 no.2
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    • pp.103-110
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    • 2008
  • When there is uncertainty in topological rate of change, motility model and terrain condition, the performance severely degrades in MANET. The concept of transition of routing protocol on the fly according to the network parameters such as coverage, connectivity and mobility etc. may counterbalance the problems stated above. The mathematical modeling of feedback parameters has been derived, and the architecture for the multi-routing protocol system providing an adaptation from one routing protocol to another is also investigated. This paper is extensively devoted on the analysis of mobility, connectivity and their effects on the network and finally transition into another routing protocol according to them.