• Title/Summary/Keyword: system uncertainty

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THE ROOT CAUSE ANALYSIS METHOD FOR SCHEDULE DELAY IN CONSTRUCTION (건설공사의 작업지연 원인분석방법)

  • Ji, Kun-Chang;Yu, Jung-Ho;Kim, Chang-Duk
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • 2006.11a
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    • pp.131-136
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    • 2006
  • In constructing projects, there exist various kinds of work interferences, which cause a delay of the outset and completion of planned schedule because of some attributions, such as variability, uncertainty and complexity. and so schedule delay has been treated as a natural phenomenon. To reduce or prevent the schedule delay, a constant confirmation of schedule delay and a preparation of counter plans for finding out the cause structure of schedule delay should have been done. However, all this time the research has been mostly done on the calculation method or claim cases of schedule delay. Moreover, the analysis method did not consider the trait, which cause the schedule delay, in constructing projects. This paper restricts the range of the cause analysis of schedule delay to the field of site management in the projects and divides the cause structure of schedule delay into the cause objects and cause attributes of schedule delay according to the input elements. The system of classifying causes of schedule delay is examined by interviews with experts and questionnaire. Additionally, this paper analyzes the attributes of cause attributes and cause subjects and presents the analysis method and procedure of schedule delay with the application of VSM.

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A Study on the Method for Measuring the live Calorific Value of LNG in storage tank using LNG Densitometer (LNG 밀도계를 이용한 저장 탱크 내 LNG 발열량 실시간 측정방법에 관한 연구)

  • Ha, Young-Cheol;Lee, Seong-Min
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.49 no.1
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    • pp.35-40
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    • 2011
  • The low caloric LNG, which didn't meet the gas interchangeability of Korea, has been imported from 2005 winter season. Amount of this LNG imports has been increased from year to year. In the near future, very low caloric LNG (calorific value ${\leq}$ 9,500 kcal/$Nm^3$) such as CBM, Shale LNG will be imported large amounts. For this reason, we need a method for monitoring live calorific values(CV) of LNG in each storage tank to supply gasified LNG with interchangeable CV at LNG receiving terminal. This study was conducted to develope the method for measuring the live CVs of LNG in each storage tank using LNG densitometer. For this purpose, the accurate correlation between CV and density of LNG was derived and the uncertainty of this method was evaluated and also the measuring system for CVs was constructed at LNG receiving terminal. To verify this method, the results of measurement using this method were compared with the field data of LNG analysis and the results showed that the deviations were 0.17~0.47%.

Major Studios' Risk Sharing Mechanism in the US TV Drama Industry (미국 TV드라마 산업에서 메이저 스튜디오의 리스크 분산 메커니즘)

  • Yim, Jung-Su
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.11 no.11
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    • pp.137-144
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    • 2011
  • This study explored the risk sharing mechanism in the US TV drama industry. The hollywood system of TV production and distribution can be understood to be the result of the efforts to reduce the uncertainty and the risk of investment. Since the 1990s, the vertical integration of major studios and networks has been one of the core strategies for risk sharing. In the strategy, the most important role of networks is to schedule new series that the affiliated studios produce. Networks also provide the new series their brand value. On the other hand, the most important role of studios in the vertical integrated environment is to provide the affiliated networks the infrastructures for production and distribution, financial management, and product management. In addition, networks keep the right on the series in the secondary markets, and attempt to increase the aggressive investment on new series on the base of the rights. However, such a risky investment can be the potential burden and risk for the networks in the future. This paper shows the importance of the reasonable risk sharing in the television drama industry to the Korean TV drama industry that has experienced the conflict between networks and independent production companies.

A Fuzzy Linear Programming Problem with Fuzzy Convergent Equality Constraints (퍼지 융합 등식 제약식을 갖는 퍼지 선형계획법 문제)

  • Oh, Se-Ho
    • Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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    • v.6 no.5
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    • pp.227-232
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    • 2015
  • The fuzzy linear programming(FLP) is the useful approach to many real world problems under uncertainty. This paper deals with a FLP whose objective value is fuzzy. And the right hand sides of convergent equality constraints are fuzzy numbers. We assume that the membership function of the objective value is piecewise linear and those of the right hand side are trapezoidal. Each of these trapezoidal functions can be algebraically replaced with three linear functions. Then the FLP problem is transformed into the Zimmermann's symmetric model. The fuzzy solution based on the max-min rule can be obtained by solving the crisp linear programming problem derived from the symmetric model. A numerical example has illustrated our approach. The application of our approach to the inconsistent linear system can enable generate us to get define the useful and flexible inexact solutions within acceptable tolerance. Further research is required to generalize the membership function.

Evaluation of Performance of Atmospheric Re-Entry System for the Uncertainties Using the Monte-Carlo Simulation (몬테-칼로 모의실험을 이용한 대기권 재진입 시스템의 불확실성 성능 평가)

  • Lee, Dae-Woo;Cho, Kyeum-Rae;Oh, Se-Jong
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.30 no.7
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    • pp.51-60
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    • 2002
  • The Monte-Carlo simulation of statistical analysis is used to investigate the final conditions of states as well as the footprint boundaries resulting from the atmospheric re-entry dispersions. The re-entry dispersions in this paper are specified by a $7\times7$ covariance matrix of latitude, longitude, altitude, bank angle, flight path angle, heading error, and range at entry velocity. The error sources that affect these at re-entry for a deboost are the uncertainties associated with atmospheric density and temperature, initial errors, wind, and estimation error of aerodynamic coefficients. Using $3{\sigma}_n$ deviations of these errors and a nominal flight trajectory, the covariance matrix of state variables can be determined by performing a trajectory error analysis. Major considerations in the application of the Monte-Carlo method are the simulation of perturbed trajectories, bank reversal, and determination of the impact points for each of these trajectories. This paper analyzes the results of uncertainties from the viewpoint of aero-coefficients and bank reversal.

Design of a Helmholtz Resonator for Noise Reduction in a Duct Considering Geometry Information: Additional Relationship Equation and Experiment (형상 정보를 고려한 덕트 소음 저감용 헬름홀츠 공명기 설계: 추가 관계식과 실험)

  • Ryu, Hokyung;Chung, Seong Jin;Lee, Jin Woo
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.38 no.4
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    • pp.459-468
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    • 2014
  • An additional relationship equation is numerically obtained to increase the accuracy of the conventional equation for obtaining the resonant frequency of a resonator. Although the conventional equation is widely used in industry because of its simplicity, it does not provide enough information on the cavity or the neck of the resonator for noise reduction in a duct. Resonator designers have difficulty implementing resonator design owing to the uncertainty in geometry presented by the well-known formula for determining the resonant frequency. To overcome this problem, this work determines an approximate equation using results of numerical calculation. To this end, shape parameters of the neck and cavity of a resonator are defined, and an equation describing the relationship between them is derived by adjusting the peak frequency in the transmission loss curve of a resonator to its resonant frequency. The application and validity of the derived equation are investigated in a numerical simulation and an acoustic experiment, respectively.

Design of Lateral Controller for Autonomous Guidance of a Farm Tractor in Field Operations (농업용 트랙터의 작업 시 자동 운전 유도를 위한 횡방향 제어기 설계)

  • Han, Kun Hee;Lee, Ji Min;Song, Bongsob
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.38 no.5
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    • pp.551-557
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    • 2014
  • This paper presents a robust lateral controller for autonomous guidance of a farm tractor in field operations. Although mechanical steering actuators have recently been used for passenger vehicles, the steering actuator of the farm tractor is based on a hydraulic system, resulting in limited bandwidth and a larger time delay. Based on a kinematic tractor model with steering actuator dynamics, a nonlinear control technique called dynamic surface control is applied to design a robust lateral controller that compensates for uncertainty owing to steering actuator and road geometry. Finally, tracking performance and robustness of the proposed controller are validated via commercial tractor simulations, with respect to the time delay of the steering actuator and road geometry (e.g., up and down hills), on a given field with a constant friction coefficient.

Am Experimental Study on Measurement of Number Density and Temperature Distributions in $C_3H_8/O_2$ Flame by UV Laser Rayleigh Scattering (UV Laser Rayleigh Scattering을 이용한 $C_3H_8/O_2$ 화염에서 가스 성분의 농도 및 온도 분포 계측에 관한 실험적 연구)

  • Jin, S. H;Nam, G. J.;Kim, H. S.;Chang, N. K.;Park, S. H.;Kim, U.;Park, K. S.;Kim, G. S.
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Automotive Engineers
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.60-68
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    • 1997
  • Rayleigh Scattering Cross Sections($\sigma$i) of various gases and the temperature distributions of premixes C3H8/O2 flame are measured by high power KrF(248nm) Exci- mer laser and ICCD camera. Results show that $\sigma$i of O2 and Propane(C3H8) gases agree well in the 5% error range, but of H2 has the more or less difference from the calcul- ated value by other groups. This is attributed to the low RS signal of H2 to Nosie level(S/N ratio). The temperature distributions of flame range out between 300K in the air and about 2000K in the burned area. In this temperature range, out system has the about 250K temperature resolution. Because low RS signals in the reaction area with high temperature are affected highly by noises, temperature uncertainty of this area is relatively high to another part of flame. Experimental results show that UV Rayleigh Scattering can be used for the measurement of mixing ratio of mixed gases and the temperature distributions of flame. Especially, this technique can be applied for the measurement of the mixing ratio of air/fuel before the ignition and the flame structure after the ignition inside the Engine.

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Projected Spatial-Temporal changes in carbon reductions of Soil and Vegetation in South Korea under Climate Change, 2000-2100 (기후변화에 따른 식생과 토양에 의한 탄소변화량 공간적 분석)

  • Lee, Dong-Kun;Park, Chan;Oh, Young-Chool
    • Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.109-116
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    • 2010
  • Climate change is known to affect both natural and managed ecosystems, and will likely impact on the terrestrail carbon balance. This paper reports the effects of climate change on spatial-temporal changes in carbon reductions in South Korea's during 2000-2100. Future carbon (C) stock distributions are simulated for the same period using various spatial data sets including land cover, net primary production(NPP) and leaf area index (LAI) obtained from MODIS(Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer), and climate data from Data Assimilation Office(DAO) and Korea Meteorological Administration(KMA). This study attempts to predict future NPP using multiple linear regression and to model dependence of soil respiration on soil temperature. Plants store large amounts of carbon during the growing periods. During 2030-2100, Carbon accumulation in vegetation was increased to $566{\sim}610gC/m^2$/year owing to climate change. On the other hand, soil respiration is a key ecosystem process that releases carbon from the soil in the form of carbon dioxide. The estimated soil respiration spatially ranged from $49gC/m^2$/year to $231gC/m^2$/year in the year of 2010, and correlating well with the reference value. This results include Spatial-Temporal C reduction variation caused by climate change. Therefore this results is more comprehensive than previous results. The uncertainty in this study is still large, but it can be reduced if a detailed map becomes available.

An Empirical Study on the Fitness between Manufacturing Technology Strategy and product Structure - Based on Korean Electric and Electronic Industry - (제품구조와 생산기술간의 적합성에 관한 실증적 연구 - 우리나라 전기 . 전자산업을 중심으로 -)

  • 이경환;임재화
    • Proceedings of the Technology Innovation Conference
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    • 1992.12a
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    • pp.119-155
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    • 1992
  • Traditionally, the target of manufaturing technology strategy was derived in a efficiency, cost and productivity. So most activities of the manufacturing brought focus into the engineering technology, equipments and research and improvement of new products to maximize the efficiency. As a resell of this legacy, most of the activities of manufacturing has been executed on the method of quality improvement, development of new equipment to incense the efficiency and the research of materials for new products. Those trends, however overlook the operation management activities which is very important as a assets in competitive strategy. But the market enviornment of morden manufacturing companies faced to the uncertainty and complexity. So they need capability of competition which requires new concept of manufacturing technology strategy to grasp the competitive advantages. In this point of view, this paper deal with the empirical study in korean manufacturing technology strategy of the electic and electronic industry. For the empirical study, check list was made to survey the 98 manufacturing companies. The analysis procedures are as below. First, identify the manufacturing technology group an product structure group by each variable. Second manufacturing technology variables are segmented into product technology and vertical integration, suborder and infrastructure, to analyse the decision making pattern which derive the strategy groups. Third, by the fitness analysis between product structure group and manufacturing technology group, the economic results of a growth rate of sale and a profit rate of sale are tested. In this approach, fitness analysis between product structure group and manufacturing technology group show, as a whole, the no significant values in economic results of the company. But investigating the statistical values shows the trend that econmic result of the complany is somewhat higher when the degree of fitness of manufacturing technology strategy by product structure has high value. Concluding the remarks, the competitive advantages of company lies not in the efficiency of manufacturing systems but in the way of the structure and decision making pattern of the manufacturing system. And the cons i stoney between strategy target and manufacturing technology strategy, and the consistency of manufacturing technology strategy and product structure are the term of competitive advantages.

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