• IE interfaces
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.309-318
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• 2012

Forecasting probability or likelihood of technology development success has been a crucial factor for critical decisions in technology management such as R&D project selection and go or no-go decision of new product development (NPD) projects. This paper proposes an analytic network process (ANP) approach to forecasting of technology development success. Reviewing literature on factors affecting technology development success has constructed the ANP model composed of four criteria clusters : R&D characteristics, R&D competency, technological characteristics, and technological environment. An alternative cluster comprised of two elements, success and failure is also included in the model. The working of the proposed approach is provided with the help of a case study example of MRAM (magnetic random access memory) technology.

• Proceedings of the Korea Inteligent Information System Society Conference
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• 2001.01a
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• pp.156-163
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• 2001

Business forecasting is vital to the success of business. There has been an increasing demand for building business forecasting software system to assist human being to do forecasting. However, the uncertain and complex nature makes is a challenging work to analyze, design and implement software solutions for business forecasting. Traditional forecasting systems in which their models are trained based on small collection of historical data could not meet such challenges at the information explosion over the Internet. This paper presents an agent oriented business forecasting approach for building intelligent business forecasting software systems with high reusability. Although agents have been applied successfully to many application domains. little work has been reported to use the emerging agent oriented technology of this paper is that it explores how agent can be used to help human to manage various business forecasting processes in the whole business forecasting life cycle.

• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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• v.40 no.4
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• pp.415-423
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• 2014

In recent decades, RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification) technology has been recognized as one of the most core competencies in implementing ubiquitous society. However, Korea has not seen good success in diffusion of RFID even though Korean government continues funding many projects to diffuse the technology in industries. Most previous researches overestimate the growth of Korean RFID market in contrary to real market situation. This study aims to analyze the Korean RFID market and find a reasonable forecasting model for it. Our experimental results show that Bass forecasting model provides the more realistic estimates than any other models and the analyses of forecasting error provide useful information for the better forecasting. We also observed that government policy plays a crucial role in the diffusion of RFID technology in Korea.

• The Journal of Information Systems
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• v.20 no.3
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• pp.161-186
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• 2011

To date, SCM research has mainly focused on the effects of controlled variables on SCM success and emphasized adoption strategies and critical success factors. Consequently, the effects of more uncontrolled variables such as partnership between SCM partners have been largely ignored. The purpose of this study, therefore, is to examine the effects of both controlled variables and uncontrolled variables on SCM performance through affecting RTE characteristics. The six factors examined in this study include Quality of information, partnership quality, Forecasting, Agility, Visibility, and SCM performance. In this study, SCM Performance was divided into three categories: Quality Performance, Cost Performance, Delivery Performance. All factors were examined from the perspective of part suppliers. The results of this study can be summarized as follows. First, SCM information quality positively affected SCM partnership quality, Forecasting, Agility, Visibility. Second, SCM partnership quality positively affected Forecasting, Agility. But, SCM partnership quality showed no significant effect on Visibility. Third, Forecasting had a significant impact on SCM performance. According to the detailed result of measuring SCM performance with Quality Performance, Cost Performance, Delivery Performance, although Forecasting affects Cost Performance, Delivery Performance directly, it does not affect Quality Performance directly. Fourth, Agility also had a significant impact on SCM performance. According to the detailed result of measuring SCM performance, Agility has significant impact on Quality Performance, Cost Performance, Delivery Performance. Fifth, Visibility, as expected, had a significant impact on SCM performance. According to the detailed result of measuring SCM performance, Visibility has significant impact on Quality Performance, Cost Performance, Delivery Performance.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.4 no.2
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• pp.23-34
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• 1998

Travel time forecasting, especially public bus travel time forecasting in urban areas, is a difficult and complex problem which requires a prohibitively large computation time and years of experience. As the network of target area grows with addition of streets and lanes, computational burden of the forecasting systems exponentially increases. Even though the travel time between two neighboring intersections is known a priori, it is still difficult, if not impossible, to compute the travel time between every two intersections. For the reason, previous approaches frequently have oversimplified the transportation network to show feasibilities of the problem solving algorithms. In this paper, forecasting of the travel time between every two intersections is attempted based on travel time data between two neighboring intersections. The time stamps data of public buses which recorded arrival time at predetermined bus stops was extensively collected and forecast. At first, the time stamp data was categorized to eliminate white noise, uncontrollable in forecasting, based on wavelet conversion. Then, the radial basis neural networks was applied to remaining data, which showed relatively accurate results. The success of the attempt was confirmed by the drastically reduced relative error when the nodes between the target intersections increases. In general, as the number of the nodes between target intersections increases, the relative error shows the tendency of sharp increase. The experimental results of the novel approaches, based on wavelet conversion and neural network teaming mechanism, showed the forecasting methodology is very promising.

• Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.77-94
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• 2006

Case-based Reasoning (CBR) is widely used in business and industry prediction. It is suitable to solve complex and unstructured business problems. Recently, the prediction accuracy of CBR has been enhanced by not only various machine learning algorithms such as genetic algorithms, relative weighting of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) input variable but also data mining technique such as feature selection, feature weighting, feature transformation, and instance selection As a result, CBR is even more widely used today in business area. In this study, we investigated the usefulness of the CBR method in forecasting success in implementing ERP systems. We used a CBR method based on the feature weighting technique to compare the performance of three different models : MDA (Multiple Discriminant Analysis), GECBR (GEneral CBR), FWCBR (CBR with Feature Weighting supported by Analytic Hierarchy Process). The study suggests that the FWCBR approach is a promising method for forecasting of successful ERP implementation in Small and Medium sized Enterprises.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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• 2005.10a
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• pp.327-332
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• 2005

This paper aims to analysis for evaluation factor and success prediction of port innovative cluster. This paper is divided three factors such ac policy, source and operation. In addition, three factors are divided into the twelve detail factors. the weight of each factor is calculated by Kohonen Network. At the result, this paper places the priority on the source factor.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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• 2006.11a
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• pp.137-142
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• 2006

Cost and duration is important factors which directly affect profit therefore must be forecasted correctly to accomplish success of projects. So construction company uses EVMS(Earned Value Management System) to forecast final cost and duration. But previous forecasting model has low accuracy because of its linear forecasting method and can't reflect characteristic of company and project and changes as each progress. This paper presents cost and duration forecasting model using the slope prediction of cost and duration as each progress to reflect the various characteristics of construction industry. EVMS data of 23 road construction projects was used to make up regression analysis equation of slope forecasting model.

• Journal of Information Management
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• v.37 no.3
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• pp.85-97
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• 2006

In a Digital Age contents are comprized of knowledge and information. Also distinction between the sinner and loser is very clear thus only those who can rise up to challenge of changes can become the strong and a principal player. In this study this author presented a model for forecasting information service program(FISP) which is devised for the purpose of innovation of service pattern related to providing information which is ultimate goal of a library. This model is an innovative strategy escaping boldly from negative and inactive information service pattern known in analog age. Through this model this author attempted to outline methodology for heightening ideal of professional librarians and for assuring success in organizational system.

• Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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• v.30 no.2
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• pp.139-149
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• 2014

A new technique, namely the combination of satellite and trajectory analysis (CSTA), for exploring the spatio-temporal distribution information of volcanic ash plume (VAP) from volcanic eruption. CSTA uses the satellite derived ash property data and a matching forward-trajectories, which can generate airmass history pattern for specific VAP. In detail, VAP properties such as ash mask, aerosol optical thickness at 11 ${\mu}m$ ($AOT_{11}$), ash layer height, and effective radius from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer (MODIS) satellite were retrieved, and used to estimate the possibility of the ash forecasting in local atmosphere near volcano. The use of CSTA for Iceland's Eyjafjallaj$\ddot{o}$kull volcano erupted in May 2010 reveals remarkable spatial coherence for some VAP source-transport pattern. The CSTA forecasted points of VAP are consistent with the area of MODIS retrieved VAP. The success rate of the 24 hour VAP forecast result was about 77.8% in this study. Finally, the use of CSTA could provide promising results for VAP monitoring and forecasting by satellite observation data and verification with long term measurement dataset.