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An Analytic Network Process(ANP) Approach to Forecasting of Technology Development Success : The Case of MRAM Technology

네트워크분석과정(ANP)을 이용한 기술개발 성공 예측 : MRAM 기술을 중심으로

  • Jeon, Jeong-Hwan (Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, GyeongSang National University) ;
  • Cho, Hyun-Myung (Korea Railroad Research Institute) ;
  • Lee, Hak-Yeon (The Graduate School of Public Policy and Information Technology, Seoul National University of Science and Technology)
  • 전정환 (경상대학교 산업시스템공학부) ;
  • 조현명 (한국철도기술연구원) ;
  • 이학연 (서울과학기술대학교 IT정책전문대학원)
  • Received : 2011.04.22
  • Accepted : 2012.02.01
  • Published : 2012.09.01

Abstract

Forecasting probability or likelihood of technology development success has been a crucial factor for critical decisions in technology management such as R&D project selection and go or no-go decision of new product development (NPD) projects. This paper proposes an analytic network process (ANP) approach to forecasting of technology development success. Reviewing literature on factors affecting technology development success has constructed the ANP model composed of four criteria clusters : R&D characteristics, R&D competency, technological characteristics, and technological environment. An alternative cluster comprised of two elements, success and failure is also included in the model. The working of the proposed approach is provided with the help of a case study example of MRAM (magnetic random access memory) technology.

Keywords

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