• 대기
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• 제16권2호
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• pp.55-65
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• 2006

The characteristics of Depth-Area-Duration (DAD) for 50 storms over the Geumgang river basin have been analysed in terms of various storm causes using the precipitation data during the period from 1984 to 2003. Results show that the ratio of the precipitation depth to duration, and the ratio of decrease in the precipitation depth to area are the largest in the case of the tropical cyclone. Storm maximization ratios are in the range 1.03 to 2.66 for the 50 selected heavy precipitation cases over Geumgang river basin, with the largest value for the tropical cyclone case, suggesting that the tropical cyclone could cause heavier precipitation than the other storms. In addition, the 24-hour probable maximum precipitation for the Geumgang river basin is estimated to be about 745 mm in the maximum precipitation area.

• 한국농공학회지
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• 제26권2호
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• pp.69-84
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• 1984

This study was carried out to investigate the time distribution of single storms and to establish the model of storm patterns in korea. Rainfall recording charts collected from 42 metheorological stations covering the Korean peninsula were analyzed. A single storm was defined as a rain period seperated from preceding and succeeding rainfall by 6 hours and more. Among the defined single storms, 1199 storms exceeding total rainfall of 80 mm were qualified for the study. Storm patterns were cklassified by quartile classification method and the relationship between cummulative percent of rainfalls and cummulative storm time was established for each quartile storm group. Time distribution models for each stations were prepared through the various analytical and inferential procedures. Obtained results are summarized as follows: 1. The percentile frequency of quartile storms for the first to the fourth quartile were 22.0%, 26.5%, 28.9% and 22.6%, respectively. The large variation of percentile frequency was show between the same quartile storms. The advanced type storm pattern was predominant in the west coastal type storm patterns predominantly when compared to the single storms with small total rainfalls. 3. The single storms with long storm durations tended to show delayed type storm patterns predominantly when compared to the single storms with short storm durations. 4. The percentile time distribution of quartile storms for 42 rin gaging stations was estimated. Large variations were observed between the percentiles of time distributions of different stations. 5. No significant differences were generally found between the time distribution of rainfalls with greater total rainfall and with less total rainfall. This fact suggests that the size of the total rainfall of single storms was not the main factor affecting the time distribution of heavy storms. 6. Also, no significant difference were found between the time distribution of rainfalls with long duration and with short duration. The fact indicates that the storm duration was no the main factor affecting the time distribution of heavy storms. 7. In Korea, among all single storms, 39.0% show 80 to 100mm of total rainfall which stands for the mode of the frequency distribution of total rainfalls. The median value of rainfalls for all single storms from the 42 stations was 108mm. The shape of the frequency distribution of total rainfalls showed right skewed features. No significant differences were shown in the shape of distribution histograms for total rainfall of quartile storms. The mode of rainfalls for the advanced type quartile storms was 80~100mm and their frequencies were 39~43% for respective quartiles. For the delayed type quartile storms, the mode was 80~100mm and their frequencies were 36!38%. 8. In Korea, 29% of all single storms show 720 to 1080 minutes of storm durations which was the highest frequency in the frequency distribution of storm durations. The median of the storm duration for all single storms form 42 stations was 1026 minutes. The shape of the frequency distribution was right skewed feature. For the advanced type storms, the higher frequency of occurrence was shown by the single storms with short durations, whereas for the delayed type quartile storms, the higher frequency was shown gy the long duration single storms. 9. The total rainfall of single storms was positively correlated to storm durations in all the stations throughout the nation. This fact was also true for most of the quartile storms. 10. The third order polynomial regression models were established for estimating the time distribution of quartile storms at different stations. The model test by relative error method resulted good agreements between estimated and observed values with the relative error of less than 0.10 in average.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제34권5호
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• pp.415-426
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• 2001

재해영향평가제도가 시행된 이후 평가서에는 홍수량 산정 및 개발로 인해 증가된 유출량에 대한 대처방안으로 저류지용량을 산정할 때 임계지속기간의 개념을 도입하여 각종 수문량이 산정된다. 임계지속기간은 수공구조물의 종류, 유역특성과 계획강우의 시간적분포 및 재현기가, 유출모형에 따라 변화한다. 본 연구에서는 저류지 설계시 소요용량을 결정하기 위해 기존 연구에서 제안한 바 있는 저류비의 개념을 이용하여 산정된 저류지용량과 강우지속기간에 따른 저류지용적이 최대가 되는 때의 저류지용적 등을 비교·분석함으로써 저류지 설계시 적정용량을 산정하는 방법을 제안하였다. 추후 유출수문곡선으로부터 최대부하를 야기시키는 계획강우의 임계지속기간을 정하는 문제는 다양한 유출모형과 실적자료를 통한 강우-유출해석과 연계시켜야 할 것으로 판단된다.

• 한국방재학회 논문집
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• 제11권2호
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• pp.127-136
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• 2011

본 연구에서는 연최대치 호우사상을 결정하기 위해 총강우량과 강우강도를 함께 고려하여 계산한 재현기간을 기준으로 판단하는 방안을 제안하였다. 이러한 방법론은 서울 지점의 1961년 이후 관측된 자료를 대상으로 수행되었으며, 그 결과를 정리하면 다음과 같다. 먼저, 연최대 호우사상의 결정을 위해 이변량 지수분포를 적용하였다. 이변량 지수분포의 적용을 위한 모수추정은 전기간에 대해 수행하는 것보다는 연도별로 추정하는 것이 보다 합리적인 것으로 판단하였다. 선정된 호우사상들의 특성을 살펴보면, 먼저, 강수량이 많은 다우해에는 총강수량이 제일 많은 호우사상이 연최대 호우사상으로 선정되는 경향을 보인다. 강수량이 적은 과우해에는 상대적으로 강우강도가 큰 호우사상이 선정되는 경향이 있다. 이 두 특성은 각각 토양이 습윤한 경우와 건조한 경우 유출의 규모가 큰 호우사상을 선정할 가능성을 크게 해 주는 것이므로, 수문학적 최대호우의 개념도 어느 정도 만족시킨다고 할 수 있다. 선정된 연최대 호우사상의 평균적인 형태는, 강우지속기간이 1시간인 경우에는 강우강도 32.7 mm/hr(총강우량 32.7 mm), 지속기간 24시간인 경우에는 강우강도 9.7 mm/hr(총강우량 231.6 mm), 그리고 지속기간 48시간인 경우에는 강우강도 7.4 mm/hr(총강우량 355.0 mm) 등이다.

• 한국농공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국농공학회 2001년도 학술발표회 발표논문집
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• pp.300-305
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• 2001

The objectives of the thesis are to estimate flood using critical storm duration. The hydrological models were tested with field data from two small watersheds. The hydrological parameters were defined using the GIS system. And the results from different peak runoff equations and hydrologic models were found to simulate runoff hydrographs that are comparative to the observed.

• 한국방재학회 논문집
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• 제6권3호
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• pp.57-68
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• 2006

본 연구에서는 강우의 수문학적 특성을 고려하여 단시간강우의 시간분포를 분석하고, Huff의 무차원 누가곡선을 제시하였으며, 강우의 수문학적 특성은 지속기간, 강우의 발생원인(장마, 태풍, 집중호우, 전선형강우), 구간변화 등으로 분류하였다. 본 연구의 수행으로 인해 얻어진 결과를 요약하면 다음과 같다. 첫째, 국내 도시지역의 단시간 강우의 최대강우강도는 전방위구간에서 발생할 확률이 가장 높게 나타났으며, 둘째, 강우발생원인별 분류에서도 전반적으로 전방위구간에서 최대강우강도가 발생하였으나 태풍의 경우에는 후방위구간에서 최대강우강도가 발생하였다. 셋째, Huff의 6구간 분석에서는 동일한 위치에 해당되는 제2구간에서 우세하였다. 넷째, 전기간 강우자료를 이용한 기존 연구들의 무차원 누가곡선 및 특성변수와의 비교를 실시하여, 수문학적 특성에 따라 무차원 누가곡선의 위치 및 특성변수의 값에서 차이가 발생한다는 것을 알 수 있었다.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제51권5호
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• pp.107-113
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• 2009

The purpose of this study is to estimate the design flood runoff for ungaged forest watershed to reduce the flood damage in national park. Daewonsa watershed in Jirisan National Park was selected as study watershed, of which characteristic factors were obtained from GIS data. Flood runoff was simulated using SCS unit hydrograph module in HEC-HMS model. SCS Curve Number (CN) was calculated from forest type area weighted average method. Huff's time distribution of second-quartile storm of the Sancheong weather station, which is nearest from study watershed, was used for design flood runoff estimation. Critical storm duration for the study watershed was 3 hrs. Based on the critical duration, the peak runoff for each sub-watershed were simulated. It is recommended to monitor the long-term flow data for major stream stations in National Park for a better reliable peak runoff simulation results.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제31권6호
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• pp.695-708
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• 1998

최근 중·소규모의 도시전역과 자연유역에서 임계지속기간의 개념을 도입하여 설계홍수량을 산정하는 사례가 늘어나고 있는 추세에 있다. 그러나, 임계지속기간에 관한 연구는 미흡한 상태이며 특히 자연유역에 대해서는 거의 없는 상태이다. 따라서, 본 연구에서는 자연유역을 대상으로 Clark모형을 이용하여 강우분포 형태, 첨두강우 발생위치, 빈도에 따른 임계지속기간 및 첨두유량을 산정하고, 적용모형의 매개변수들에 대한 민감도분석을 실시함으로써 각종 인자들이 설계홍수량에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제37권5호
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• pp.425-435
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• 2004

수자원분야에서 관측최대강수량은 주로 지점최대 강수량에 의해 평가되어 왔으나, 엄밀한 의미에서 강수량이라 함은 면적평균강수량으로 고려되어야 한다. 면적평균강수량은 관측호우의 DAD(rainfall Depth-Area-Duration) 분석을 통하여 계산된 추정치이고, 이로부터 대상면적-지속기간별 면적평균강수량 또는 최대관측강수량을 산정할 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 우리나라 전역을 수문학적으로 동질하다고 가정하여 호우중심의 DAD 분석을 수행하였으며, 이로부터 면적-지속기간별 최대관측강수량의 연도별 변화를 고찰하였다. 또한, 면적-지속기간별고 구성된 시계열로부터 확률강수량을 산정하여, 면적별 IDF와 관측치대강수량의 특성에 대하여 논하였다.

• 천문학회보
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• 제38권2호
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• pp.33-33
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• 2013

We are developing empirical space weather (solar flare, solar proton event, and geomagnetic storm) forecast models based on solar data. In this talk we will review our main results and recent progress. First, we have examined solar flare (R) occurrence probability depending on sunspot McIntosh classification, its area, and its area change. We find that sunspot area and its increase (a proxy of flux emergence) greatly enhance solar flare occurrence rates for several sunspot classes. Second, a solar proton event (S) forecast model depending on flare parameters (flare strength, duration, and longitude) as well as CME parameters (speed and angular width) has been developed. We find that solar proton event probability strongly depends on these parameters and CME speed is well correlated with solar proton flux for disk events. Third, we have developed an empirical storm (G) forecast model to predict probability and strength of a storm using halo CME - Dst storm data. For this we use storm probability maps depending on CME parameters such as speed, location, and earthward direction. We are also looking for geoeffective CME parameters such as cone model parameters and magnetic field orientation. We find that all superstorms (less than -200 nT) occurred in the western hemisphere with southward field orientations. We have a plan to set up a storm forecast method with a three-stage approach, which will make a prediction within four hours after the solar coronagraph data become available. We expect that this study will enable us to forecast the onset and strength of a geomagnetic storm a few days in advance using only CME parameters and the WSA-ENLIL model. Finally, we discuss several ongoing works for space weather applications.