• Advances in Energy Research
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• v.6 no.2
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• pp.131-143
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• 2019

Global Solar Radiation (GSR) is the key element for performance estimation of any Solar Power Plant (SPP). Its forecasting may help in estimation of power production from a SPP well in advance, and may also render help in optimal use of this power. Seasonal Auto-Regressive Moving Average (SARMA) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models are combined in order to develop a hybrid model (SARMA-ANN) conceiving the characteristics of both linear and non-linear prediction models. This developed model has been used for prediction of GSR at Gorakhpur, situated in the northern region of India. The proposed model is beneficial for the univariate forecasting. Along with this model, we have also used Auto-Regressive Moving Average (ARMA), SARMA, ANN based models for 1 - 6 day-ahead forecasting of GSR on hourly basis. It has been found that the proposed model presents least RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) and produces best forecasting results among all the models considered in the present study. As an application, the comparison between the forecasted one and the energy produced by the grid connected PV plant installed on the parking stands of the University shows the superiority of the proposed model.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.31 no.6
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• pp.785-799
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• 2018

With the development of renewable energy sector, the importance of solar energy is continuously increasing. Solar radiation forecasting is essential to accurately solar power generation forecasting. In this paper, we used time series models (ARIMA, ARIMAX, seasonal ARIMA, seasonal ARIMAX, ARIMA GARCH, ARIMAX-GARCH, seasonal ARIMA-GARCH, seasonal ARIMAX-GARCH). We compared the performance of the models using mean absolute error and root mean square error. According to the performance of the models without exogenous variables, the Seasonal ARIMA-GARCH model showed better performance model considering the problem of heteroscedasticity. However, when the exogenous variables were considered, the ARIMAX model showed the best forecasting accuracy.

• Korean Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering
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• v.25 no.6
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• pp.310-316
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• 2013

This study was designed to investigate a method for short-term, real-time energy demand prediction, to cope with changing loads for the effective operation and management of buildings. Through a case study, a novel methodology for real-time energy demand prediction with the use of weather forecasting data was suggested. To perform the input and output operations of weather data, and to calculate solar radiation and EnergyPlus, the BCVTB (Building Control Virtual Test Bed) was designed. Through the BCVTB, energy demand prediction for the next 24 hours was carried out, based on 4 real-time weather data and 2 solar radiation calculations. The weather parameters used in a model equation to calculate solar radiation were sourced from the weather data of the KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration). Depending on the local weather forecast data, the results showed their corresponding predicted values. Thus, this methodology was successfully applicable to anywhere that local weather forecast data is available.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Industry Convergence
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• v.26 no.4_2
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• pp.715-724
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• 2023

Solar energy forecasting is essential for (1) power system planning, management, and operation, requiring accurate predictions. It is crucial for (2) ensuring a continuous and sustainable power supply to customers and (3) optimizing the operation and control of renewable energy systems and the electricity market. Recently, research has been focusing on developing solar energy forecasting models that can provide daily plans for power usage and production and be verified in the electricity market. In these prediction models, various data, including solar energy generation and climate data, are chosen to be utilized in the forecasting process. The most commonly used climate data (such as temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, solar radiation, and wind speed) significantly influence the fluctuations in solar energy generation based on weather conditions. Therefore, this paper proposes a hybrid forecasting model by combining the strengths of the Prophet model and the GRU model, which exhibits excellent predictive performance. The forecasting periods for solar energy generation are tested in short-term (2 days, 7 days) and medium-term (15 days, 30 days) scenarios. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed approach outperforms the conventional Prophet model by more than twice in terms of Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and surpasses the modified GRU model by more than 1.5 times, showcasing superior performance.

• Journal of Advanced Navigation Technology
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.233-239
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• 2018

Since solar power generation is intermittent depending on weather conditions, it is necessary to predict the accurate generation amount of solar power to improve the efficiency and economical efficiency of solar power generation. This study proposes a short - term deep learning prediction model of solar power generation using meteorological data from Mokpo meteorological agency and generation data of Yeongam solar power plant. The meteorological agency forecasts weather factors such as temperature, precipitation, wind direction, wind speed, humidity, and cloudiness for three days. However, sunshine and solar radiation, the most important meteorological factors for forecasting solar power generation, are not predicted. The proposed model predicts solar radiation and solar radiation using forecast meteorological factors. The power generation was also forecasted by adding the forecasted solar and solar factors to the meteorological factors. The forecasted power generation of the proposed model is that the average RMSE and MAE of DNN are 0.177 and 0.095, and RNN is 0.116 and 0.067. Also, LSTM is the best result of 0.100 and 0.054. It is expected that this study will lead to better prediction results by combining various input.

• New & Renewable Energy
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• v.19 no.4
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• pp.98-107
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• 2023

A study was conducted to analyze data from 1981 to 2020 for understanding the impact of climate on solar energy generation. A significant increase of 104.6 kWhm^-2 was observed in the annual cumulative solar radiation over this period. Notably, the distribution of solar radiation shifted, with the solar radiation in Busan rising from the seventh place in 1981 to the second place in 2020 in South Korea. This study also examined the correlation between long-term temperature trends and solar radiation. Areas with the highest solar radiation in 2020, such as Busan, Gwangju, Daegu, and Jinju, exhibited strong positive correlations, suggesting that increased solar radiation contributed to higher temperatures. Conversely, regions like Seosan and Mokpo showed lower temperature increases due to factors such as reduced cloud cover. To evaluate the impact on solar energy production, simulations were conducted using climate data from both years. The results revealed that relying solely on historical data for solar energy predictions could lead to overestimations in some areas, including Seosan or Jinju, and underestimations in others such as Busan. Hence, considering long-term climate variability is vital for accurate solar energy forecasting and ensuring the economic feasibility of solar projects.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.29 no.6
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• pp.709-719
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• 2022

Recently, as the importance of environmental protection has emerged, interest in new and renewable energy is also increasing worldwide. In particular, the solar energy sector accounts for the highest production rate among new and renewable energy in Korea due to its infinite resources, easy installation and maintenance, and eco-friendly characteristics such as low noise emission levels and less pollutants during power generation. However, although climate prediction is essential since solar power is affected by weather and climate change, solar radiation, which is closely related to solar power, is not currently forecasted by the Korea Meteorological Administration. Solar radiation prediction can be the basis for establishing a reasonable new and renewable energy operation plan, and it is very important because it can be used not only in solar power but also in other fields such as power consumption prediction. Therefore, this study was conducted for the purpose of improving the accuracy of solar radiation. Solar radiation was predicted by a total of three weather variables, temperature, humidity, and cloudiness, and solar radiation outside the atmosphere, and the results were compared using various models. The CatBoost model was best obtained by fitting and comparing the Boosting series (XGB, CatBoost) and RNN series (Simple RNN, LSTM, GRU) models. In addition, the results were further improved through Time series cross-validation.

• Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.9-17
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• 2005

Images taken by geostationary satellite may be used to estimate solar irradiance fluxes at earth's surface. It is based on the empirical correlation between a satellite derived cloud index and the irradiance at the ground. For the validation, estimated solar radiation fluxes are compared with observed solar radiation fluxes at 16 sites over the Korean peninsular from January 1982 to December 2004. Estimated solar radiation fluxes show reliable results for estimating the global radiation with average deviation of -7.8 to +7.0% from the measured values and the yearly averaged horizontal global insolation of Korean peninsula was turned out to be $3.56kW/m^{2}/day$.

• Solar Energy
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• v.20 no.3
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• pp.21-30
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• 2000

It is necessary to estimate the regression coefficients in order to predict the monthly mean daily global radiation on a horizontal surface. Therefore many different equations have proposed to evaluate them for certain areas. In this work, a new correlation has been made to predict the solar radiation for any area over Korea by estimating the regression coefficients taking into account percentage of possible sunshine, and cloud cover. Particularly, the multiple linear regression model proposed shows reliable results for estimating the global radiation with average deviation of -1 to 3 % from the measured values.

• Journal of Advanced Navigation Technology
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• v.22 no.5
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• pp.478-484
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• 2018

This study predicts solar radiation, solar radiation, and solar power generation using hourly weather data such as temperature, precipitation, wind direction, wind speed, humidity, cloudiness, sunshine and solar radiation. I/O pattern in supervised learning is the most important factor in prediction, but it must be determined by repeated experiments because humans have to decide. This study proposed four input and output patterns for solar and sunrise prediction. In addition, we predicted solar power generation using the predicted solar and solar radiation data and power generation data of Youngam solar power plant in Jeollanamdo. As a experiment result, the model 4 showed the best prediction results in the sunshine and solar radiation prediction, and the RMSE of sunshine was 1.5 times and the sunshine RMSE was 3 times less than that of model 1. As a experiment result of solar power generation prediction, the best prediction result was obtained for model 4 as well as sunshine and solar radiation, and the RMSE was reduced by 2.7 times less than that of model 1.