New & Renewable Energy (신재생에너지)

Korean Society for New and Renewable Energy (한국신·재생에너지학회)
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Assessing the Impact of Long-Term Climate Variability on Solar Power Generation through Climate Data Analysis

기후 자료 분석을 통한 장기 기후변동성이 태양광 발전량에 미치는 영향 연구

  • Chang Ki Kim (Renewable Energy Big Data Laboratory, Korea Institute of Energy Research) ;
  • Hyun-Goo Kim (Renewable Energy Institute, Korea Institute of Energy Research) ;
  • Jin-Young Kim (Renewable Energy Big Data Laboratory, Korea Institute of Energy Research)
  • Received : 2023.09.05
  • Accepted : 2023.09.25
  • Published : 2023.12.25
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Abstract

A study was conducted to analyze data from 1981 to 2020 for understanding the impact of climate on solar energy generation. A significant increase of 104.6 kWhm-2 was observed in the annual cumulative solar radiation over this period. Notably, the distribution of solar radiation shifted, with the solar radiation in Busan rising from the seventh place in 1981 to the second place in 2020 in South Korea. This study also examined the correlation between long-term temperature trends and solar radiation. Areas with the highest solar radiation in 2020, such as Busan, Gwangju, Daegu, and Jinju, exhibited strong positive correlations, suggesting that increased solar radiation contributed to higher temperatures. Conversely, regions like Seosan and Mokpo showed lower temperature increases due to factors such as reduced cloud cover. To evaluate the impact on solar energy production, simulations were conducted using climate data from both years. The results revealed that relying solely on historical data for solar energy predictions could lead to overestimations in some areas, including Seosan or Jinju, and underestimations in others such as Busan. Hence, considering long-term climate variability is vital for accurate solar energy forecasting and ensuring the economic feasibility of solar projects.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

이 논문은 2023년도 정부(산업통상자원부)의 재원으로 한국에너지기술평가원의 지원을 받아 수행된 연구임(20193710100061, 신재생발전 통합 관제시스템용 계통안정화 핵심요소 기술 개발).

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