Spatial effect on the diffusion of discount stores (대형할인점 확산에 대한 공간적 영향)
- Joo, Young-Jin;Kim, Mi-Ae
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- Journal of Distribution Research
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- v.15 no.4
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- pp.61-85
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- 2010
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Introduction: Diffusion is process by which an innovation is communicated through certain channel overtime among the members of a social system(Rogers 1983). Bass(1969) suggested the Bass model describing diffusion process. The Bass model assumes potential adopters of innovation are influenced by mass-media and word-of-mouth from communication with previous adopters. Various expansions of the Bass model have been conducted. Some of them proposed a third factor affecting diffusion. Others proposed multinational diffusion model and it stressed interactive effect on diffusion among several countries. We add a spatial factor in the Bass model as a third communication factor. Because of situation where we can not control the interaction between markets, we need to consider that diffusion within certain market can be influenced by diffusion in contiguous market. The process that certain type of retail extends is a result that particular market can be described by the retail life cycle. Diffusion of retail has pattern following three phases of spatial diffusion: adoption of innovation happens in near the diffusion center first, spreads to the vicinity of the diffusing center and then adoption of innovation is completed in peripheral areas in saturation stage. So we expect spatial effect to be important to describe diffusion of domestic discount store. We define a spatial diffusion model using multinational diffusion model and apply it to the diffusion of discount store. Modeling: In this paper, we define a spatial diffusion model and apply it to the diffusion of discount store. To define a spatial diffusion model, we expand learning model(Kumar and Krishnan 2002) and separate diffusion process in diffusion center(market A) from diffusion process in the vicinity of the diffusing center(market B). The proposed spatial diffusion model is shown in equation (1a) and (1b). Equation (1a) is the diffusion process in diffusion center and equation (1b) is one in the vicinity of the diffusing center.
$$\array{{S_{i,t}=(p_i+q_i{\frac{Y_{i,t-1}}{m_i}})(m_i-Y_{i,t-1})\;i{\in}\{1,{\cdots},I\}\;(1a)}\\{S_{j,t}=(p_j+q_j{\frac{Y_{j,t-1}}{m_i}}+{\sum\limits_{i=1}^I}{\gamma}_{ij}{\frac{Y_{i,t-1}}{m_i}})(m_j-Y_{j,t-1})\;i{\in}\{1,{\cdots},I\},\;j{\in}\{I+1,{\cdots},I+J\}\;(1b)}}$$ We rise two research questions. (1) The proposed spatial diffusion model is more effective than the Bass model to describe the diffusion of discount stores. (2) The more similar retail environment of diffusing center with that of the vicinity of the contiguous market is, the larger spatial effect of diffusing center on diffusion of the vicinity of the contiguous market is. To examine above two questions, we adopt the Bass model to estimate diffusion of discount store first. Next spatial diffusion model where spatial factor is added to the Bass model is used to estimate it. Finally by comparing Bass model with spatial diffusion model, we try to find out which model describes diffusion of discount store better. In addition, we investigate the relationship between similarity of retail environment(conceptual distance) and spatial factor impact with correlation analysis. Result and Implication: We suggest spatial diffusion model to describe diffusion of discount stores. To examine the proposed spatial diffusion model, 347 domestic discount stores are used and we divide nation into 5 districts, Seoul-Gyeongin(SG), Busan-Gyeongnam(BG), Daegu-Gyeongbuk(DG), Gwan- gju-Jeonla(GJ), Daejeon-Chungcheong(DC), and the result is shown. In a result of the Bass model(I), the estimates of innovation coefficient(p) and imitation coefficient(q) are 0.017 and 0.323 respectively. While the estimate of market potential is 384. A result of the Bass model(II) for each district shows the estimates of innovation coefficient(p) in SG is 0.019 and the lowest among 5 areas. This is because SG is the diffusion center. The estimates of imitation coefficient(q) in BG is 0.353 and the highest. The imitation coefficient in the vicinity of the diffusing center such as BG is higher than that in the diffusing center because much information flows through various paths more as diffusion is progressing. A result of the Bass model(II) shows the estimates of innovation coefficient(p) in SG is 0.019 and the lowest among 5 areas. This is because SG is the diffusion center. The estimates of imitation coefficient(q) in BG is 0.353 and the highest. The imitation coefficient in the vicinity of the diffusing center such as BG is higher than that in the diffusing center because much information flows through various paths more as diffusion is progressing. In a result of spatial diffusion model(IV), we can notice the changes between coefficients of the bass model and those of the spatial diffusion model. Except for GJ, the estimates of innovation and imitation coefficients in Model IV are lower than those in Model II. The changes of innovation and imitation coefficients are reflected to spatial coefficient(
${\gamma}$ ). From spatial coefficient(${\gamma}$ ) we can infer that when the diffusion in the vicinity of the diffusing center occurs, the diffusion is influenced by one in the diffusing center. The difference between the Bass model(II) and the spatial diffusion model(IV) is statistically significant with the${\chi}^2$ -distributed likelihood ratio statistic is 16.598(p=0.0023). Which implies that the spatial diffusion model is more effective than the Bass model to describe diffusion of discount stores. So the research question (1) is supported. In addition, we found that there are statistically significant relationship between similarity of retail environment and spatial effect by using correlation analysis. So the research question (2) is also supported.Studies on the Lipid Composition in Three Species of Shellfish (3종(種) 패류(貝類)의 지질조성(脂質組成)에 관한 연구(硏究))
- Son, Young Ock;Ha, Bong Seuk
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- Journal of the Korean Society of Food Science and Nutrition
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- v.12 no.4
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- pp.407-419
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- 1983
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In this study, the lipid components of three species of shellfish included oyster(Crassostrea gigas), top shell(Turbo cornutus) representing salt water shellfish and corb shell(Corbicula fluminea producta) representing flesh water shellfish were analysed and nutriontional significances were discussed. Analysed the total lipid composition, and the fatty acid and sterol composition of total lipid were determined. The lipid was fractionated into three lipid classes neutral, glyco and phospholipid by column chromatography. The fatty acid composition of each lipid class and sterols were determined by gas liquid chromatography. The lipid components of total lipid and neutral lipid were estimated by thin layer chromatography and TLC scanner. The results were as follows: Total lipid contents of shellfish were 1.8% in oyster, 0.4% in top shell and 4.0% in corb shell. The contents of total fatty acid in total lipid were 80.7, 71.2 and 73.2%; and the contents of unsaponifiable matters were 15.4, 18.1 and 23.1% respectively. Total lipids were mainly composed of triglycerides, polar lipid-pigments and sterols as major component, and hydrocarbon-esterified sterols were determined in each sample. The major fatty acids in total lipid were palmitic(37.0%), eicosapentaenoic(13.5%) and linoleic acid(11.2%) in oyster, Octadecatetraenoic(15.8%), palmitic(11.2%), oleic(8.6%) and linoleic acid(8.1%) in top shell, but palmitic(34.0%), linoleic(12.3%) and paimitoleic acid(9.8%) in corb shell. Particularly, the contents of eicosapentaenoic acid of oyster and top shell were higher than those of corb shell. Sterol composition from three species of shellfish were mainly consisted of cholesterol (42.7~64.0%), brassicasterol(15.6~24.7%) and 24-methylenecholesterol (4.7~21.9%). But sitosterol (5.3%) was detected only in oyster and 22-dehydrocholesterol(12.9%) was only in top shell. The contents of fractionated neutral lipid was commonly higher than that of polar lipid in each sample. Glycolipid and phospholipid in polar lipid showed similar in quantity. The neutral lipids were composed of triglycerides(33.0~36.7%), free sterols(25.7~31.2%), esterified sterol(12.4~23.7%) and free fatty acids(5.1~11.7%). The contents of triglycerides and free sterols were higher than those of free fatty acids and esterified sterols. The major fatty acids in neutral lipid were palmitic(28.4~26.4%) eicosapentaenoic(18.6~21.9%) and linoleic acid(9.0~5.4%) in oyster and corb shell but octadecatetraenoic(14.5%), eicosapentaenoic (13.5%) and palmitic acid(12.3%) in top shell. The major fatty acids in glycolipid were eicosenoic(10.2%), palmitic(12.1%) and linolenic acid (10.2%) in oyster, Eicosenoic(26.0%), octadecatetraenoic(14.6.%) and eicosadienoic acid(12.9%) in top shell. But eicosadienoic(21.4%) stearic(14.6%), octadecatetraenoic(8.5%) and eicosenoic acid(8.5%) in corb shell. The major fatty acids in phospholipid were myristic(16.0%), stearic(10.6%), eicosenoic(10.5%) and palmitic acid(10.3%) in oyster, Oleic(22.2%), stearic(20.7%) and linolenic acid (11.8%) in top shell but eicosapentaenoic(25.1%), myristic(8.7%) and arachidonic acid(8.3%) in corb shell.
Principal Characteristics of Pinus parviflora S. et Z. Native to the Dagelet Island (울릉도(鬱陵島) 섬잣나무의 특성(特性)에 관(關)한 연구(硏究))
- Ahn, Kun Yong
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- Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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- v.12 no.1
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- pp.31-43
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- 1971
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In order to examine the taxonomic difference between the type of Pinus parviflora S. et Z. native to the Dagelet Island and the type of the species introduced to a number of places of the inland of South Korea, investigations on principal characters of needle, cone and seed were made with a hope to obtain informations on the evaluation of the species for possible use in the reforestation program in Korea in the future. Pinus parviflora is belonged to the Sub-genus Haploxylon of Genus Pinus and it has been speculated among dendrologists that this speoies is not monotypic. 308 rendomly selected trees from 8 different elevations of a natural stand of P. parviflora in the Dagelet Island, and 168 trees of P. parviflora growing at 15 different locations of the inland of South Korea were employed as samples along with 300 trees of P. koraiensis as control. The results obtained are summarized as follows: 1. The needle length of the Pinus parviflora of the Dagelet Island is longer than that of the species growing in the inland by 21-35 percent with statistical significancy. (Table 2) 2. In the cross section of needle, no resin canal was observed in about 50-70 percent of the sample trees of the Dagelet Island, whereas the resin canals appearing at external in most cases were observed in all sample trees from the inland. Consequently, the number of resin canals per needle was 0.4-0.9 with the Dagelet Island type and 2.0-2.7 with the inland type and these differences were statistically significant. (Table 3, Fig.2) 3. The Pinus parvviflora type of the Dagelet Island bas yellowish brown cones, and the Pinus parviflora type of Suwon and Kwangyang has redish brown cones. In both the length of cone and the number of cone scale, the difference between the type of the Dagelet Island and the type of the inland was also statistically significant. The cone scales of the Dagelet Island type are slightly opened, whereas the cone scales are widely opened with both of Suwon and Kwangyang type. (Table 4, Fig. 3) 4. the seed color, of the Dagelet Island type is yellowish brown, while it is greyish brown with Kwangyang and Suwon type. In the length and width of seed, the Dagelet Island type showed significantly larger values than that of the inland type. The length of seed was longest with the Kwangyang type being followed by Suwon and the Dagelet Island type in ordar. The seed wing of the Kwangyang type are longer than the seed, while that of the Dagelet Island type is degenerated to be shorter than the seed. (Table 5, Fig. 4) 5. The Pinus parviflora type of the Dagelat Island is similar in many respects to the southern type of Pinus parviflora of Japan except that many has no resin canals in the needle. 6. On the basis of the results obtained in this study, it may be concluded that the type of Pinus parviflora of the Dagelet Island is significantly different from the type of the species introduced to the inland and that there is no recognizable variation between the population of the different altitude of the Dagelet Island and the individual variation within population is also negligible. In the light of the high value of the tree not only as an ornamental tree but as an economical tree, The type of Pinus parviflora of the Dagelet Island is considered to be recommendable to be used for the future reforestation program of Korea.
Residual Effects of Basic Oxygen Furnace Slag as Soil Conditioner in the Rice Paddy Field (논토양 벼 재배에서 제강슬래그의 토양개량제로서의 시용효과)
- Lim, June-Taeg;Kim, Young-Sin;Park, Jn-Jin;Lee, Choong-Il;Hyun, Kyu-Hawn;Kwon, Byung-Sun;Kim, Hak-Jin
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- Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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- v.33 no.3
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- pp.205-211
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- 2000
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This study was conducted to evaluate the residual effects of basic oxygen furnace (BOF) slag applied in rice paddy fields as soil conditioner one year before. The experimental fields of Lim et al. (2000) located in Youjung and Nampyung were used for this purpose. Both variety (Oryza sativa L. cv. Dongjinbyeo) and cultural practices were the same as those in Lim et al. (2000). Soil chemical properties, plant height, number of tillers per plant, yield and yield components were observed. The temporal variation of treatment mean value in soil chemical properties appeared to be similar trends in both Youjung and Nampyung experimental fields. Soil pH and Ca content were still significantly higher than those in control treatment up to July of the second season, but decreased progressively as time passed. However, the effects lasted longer as slag rate became higher. BOF slag seems to have residual effects as a soil conditioner or Ca fertilizer in soil for two years. BOF slag rate of
$4Mg\;ha^{-1}$ raised soil pH almost the same as lime rate of$2Mg\;ha^{-1}$ . Content of$SiO_2$ in soil applied slag appeared to be higher compared with control. Fe and Mg content in soil with slag treatment was significantly higher than that of control in 1997, but it was almost the same level as that of control in 1998. In YouJung experimental field, rough rice yield of slag teatment became higher as slage rate incresed. Slag rate of$12Mg\;ha^{-1}$ showed the highest rough rice yield of$5,400kg\;ha^{-1}$ among treatment, which was 14% higher than that of control with$4,720kg\;ha^{-1}$ . Slag rate of$12Mg\;ha^{-1}$ showed relatively higher plant height and higher number of tillers at the early growth stage compared with other treatments. In NamPyung experimental field, rough rice yield was the highest at the plot of lime rate$2Mg\;ha^{-1}$ and became higher as slag rate increased. There were no significant differences in rough rice yield between lime treatment and slag treatments. Slag rate of$12Mg\;ha^{-1}$ showed the highest rough rice yield of$7,170kg\;ha^{-1}$ among slag treatment, which was 8% significantly higher than that of control with$6,670kg\;ha^{-1}$ . Slag rate of$12Mg\;ha^{-1}$ showed relatively slower growth in plant height at the early growth stage, but superior growth at the later growth stage, and significantly higher number of spiklets per panicle and 1000-grain weight than that of control.
The Classification arranged from Protectorate period to the early Japanese Colonial rule period : for Official Documents during the period from Kabo Reform to The Great Han Empire - Focusing on Classification Stamp and Warehouse Number Stamp - (통감부~일제 초기 갑오개혁과 대한제국기 공문서의 분류 - 분류도장·창고번호도장을 중심으로 -)
- Park, Sung-Joon
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- The Korean Journal of Archival Studies
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- no.22
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- pp.115-155
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- 2009
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As Korea was merged into Japan, the official documents during Kabo Reform and The Great Han Empire time were handed over to the Government-General of Chosun and reclassified from section based to ministry based. However they had been reclassified before many times. The footprints of reclassification can be found in the classification stamps and warehouse number stamps which remained on the cover of official documents from Kabo Reform to The Great Han Empire. They classified the documents by Section in the classification system of Ministry-Department-Section, stamped and numbered them. It is consistent with the official document classification system in The Great Han Empire, which shows the section based classification was maintained. Although they stamped by Section and numbered the documents, there were differences in sub classification system by Section. In the documents of Land Tax Section, many institutions can be found. The documents of the same year can be found in different group and documents of similar characteristics are classified in the same group. Customs Section and Other Tax Section seemed to number their documents according to the year of documents. However the year and the order of 'i-ro-ha(イロハ) song' does not match. From Kabo Reform to The Great Han Empire the documents were grouped by Section. However they did not have classification rules for the sub units of Section. Therefore, it is not clear if the document grouping of classification stamps can be understood as the original order of official document classification system of The Great Han Empire. However, given the grouping method reflects the document classification system, the sub section classification system of the Great Han Empire can be inferred through the grouping method. In this inference, it is understood that the classification system was divided into two such as 'Section - Counterpart Institution' and 'Section - Document Issuance Year'. The Government-General of Chosun took over the official documents of The Great Han Empire, stored them in the warehouse and marked them with Warehouse Number Stamps. Warehouse Number Stamp contained the Institution that grouped those documents and the documents were stored by warehouse. Although most of the documents on the shelves in each warehouse were arranged by classification stamp number, some of them were mixed and the order of shelves and that of documents did not match. Although they arranged the documents on the shelves and gave the symbols in the order of 'i-ro-ha(イロハ) song', these symbols were not given by the order of number. During the storage of the documents by the Government-General of Chosun, the classification system according to the classification stamps was affected. One characteristic that can be found in warehouse number stamps is that the preservation period on each document group lost the meaning. The preservation period id decided according to the historical and administrative value. However, the warehouse number stamps did not distinguish the documents according to the preservation period and put the documents with different preservation period on one shelf. As Japan merged Korea, The Great Han Empire did not consider the official documents of the Great Han Empire as administrative documents that should be disposed some time later. It considered them as materials to review the old which is necessary for the colonial governance. As the meaning of the documents has been changed from general administrative documents to the materials that they would need to govern the colony, they dealt with all the official documents of The Great Han Empire as the same object regardless of preservation period. The Government-General of Chosun destroyed the classification system of the Great Han Empire which was based on Section and the functions in the Section by reclassifying them according to Ministry when they reclassified the official documents during Kobo Reform and the Great Han Empire in order to utilize them to govern the colony.
A Study on Knowledge Entity Extraction Method for Individual Stocks Based on Neural Tensor Network (뉴럴 텐서 네트워크 기반 주식 개별종목 지식개체명 추출 방법에 관한 연구)
- Yang, Yunseok;Lee, Hyun Jun;Oh, Kyong Joo
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- Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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- v.25 no.2
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- pp.25-38
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- 2019
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Selecting high-quality information that meets the interests and needs of users among the overflowing contents is becoming more important as the generation continues. In the flood of information, efforts to reflect the intention of the user in the search result better are being tried, rather than recognizing the information request as a simple string. Also, large IT companies such as Google and Microsoft focus on developing knowledge-based technologies including search engines which provide users with satisfaction and convenience. Especially, the finance is one of the fields expected to have the usefulness and potential of text data analysis because it's constantly generating new information, and the earlier the information is, the more valuable it is. Automatic knowledge extraction can be effective in areas where information flow is vast, such as financial sector, and new information continues to emerge. However, there are several practical difficulties faced by automatic knowledge extraction. First, there are difficulties in making corpus from different fields with same algorithm, and it is difficult to extract good quality triple. Second, it becomes more difficult to produce labeled text data by people if the extent and scope of knowledge increases and patterns are constantly updated. Third, performance evaluation is difficult due to the characteristics of unsupervised learning. Finally, problem definition for automatic knowledge extraction is not easy because of ambiguous conceptual characteristics of knowledge. So, in order to overcome limits described above and improve the semantic performance of stock-related information searching, this study attempts to extract the knowledge entity by using neural tensor network and evaluate the performance of them. Different from other references, the purpose of this study is to extract knowledge entity which is related to individual stock items. Various but relatively simple data processing methods are applied in the presented model to solve the problems of previous researches and to enhance the effectiveness of the model. From these processes, this study has the following three significances. First, A practical and simple automatic knowledge extraction method that can be applied. Second, the possibility of performance evaluation is presented through simple problem definition. Finally, the expressiveness of the knowledge increased by generating input data on a sentence basis without complex morphological analysis. The results of the empirical analysis and objective performance evaluation method are also presented. The empirical study to confirm the usefulness of the presented model, experts' reports about individual 30 stocks which are top 30 items based on frequency of publication from May 30, 2017 to May 21, 2018 are used. the total number of reports are 5,600, and 3,074 reports, which accounts about 55% of the total, is designated as a training set, and other 45% of reports are designated as a testing set. Before constructing the model, all reports of a training set are classified by stocks, and their entities are extracted using named entity recognition tool which is the KKMA. for each stocks, top 100 entities based on appearance frequency are selected, and become vectorized using one-hot encoding. After that, by using neural tensor network, the same number of score functions as stocks are trained. Thus, if a new entity from a testing set appears, we can try to calculate the score by putting it into every single score function, and the stock of the function with the highest score is predicted as the related item with the entity. To evaluate presented models, we confirm prediction power and determining whether the score functions are well constructed by calculating hit ratio for all reports of testing set. As a result of the empirical study, the presented model shows 69.3% hit accuracy for testing set which consists of 2,526 reports. this hit ratio is meaningfully high despite of some constraints for conducting research. Looking at the prediction performance of the model for each stocks, only 3 stocks, which are LG ELECTRONICS, KiaMtr, and Mando, show extremely low performance than average. this result maybe due to the interference effect with other similar items and generation of new knowledge. In this paper, we propose a methodology to find out key entities or their combinations which are necessary to search related information in accordance with the user's investment intention. Graph data is generated by using only the named entity recognition tool and applied to the neural tensor network without learning corpus or word vectors for the field. From the empirical test, we confirm the effectiveness of the presented model as described above. However, there also exist some limits and things to complement. Representatively, the phenomenon that the model performance is especially bad for only some stocks shows the need for further researches. Finally, through the empirical study, we confirmed that the learning method presented in this study can be used for the purpose of matching the new text information semantically with the related stocks.
Converting Ieodo Ocean Research Station Wind Speed Observations to Reference Height Data for Real-Time Operational Use (이어도 해양과학기지 풍속 자료의 실시간 운용을 위한 기준 고도 변환 과정)
- BYUN, DO-SEONG;KIM, HYOWON;LEE, JOOYOUNG;LEE, EUNIL;PARK, KYUNG-AE;WOO, HYE-JIN
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- The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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- v.23 no.4
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- pp.153-178
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- 2018
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Most operational uses of wind speed data require measurements at, or estimates generated for, the reference height of 10 m above mean sea level (AMSL). On the Ieodo Ocean Research Station (IORS), wind speed is measured by instruments installed on the lighthouse tower of the roof deck at 42.3 m AMSL. This preliminary study indicates how these data can best be converted into synthetic 10 m wind speed data for operational uses via the Korea Hydrographic and Oceanographic Agency (KHOA) website. We tested three well-known conventional empirical neutral wind profile formulas (a power law (PL); a drag coefficient based logarithmic law (DCLL); and a roughness height based logarithmic law (RHLL)), and compared their results to those generated using a well-known, highly tested and validated logarithmic model (LMS) with a stability function (
${\psi}_{\nu}$ ), to assess the potential use of each method for accurately synthesizing reference level wind speeds. From these experiments, we conclude that the reliable LMS technique and the RHLL technique are both useful for generating reference wind speed data from IORS observations, since these methods produced very similar results: comparisons between the RHLL and the LMS results showed relatively small bias values ($-0.001m\;s^{-1}$ ) and Root Mean Square Deviations (RMSD,$0.122m\;s^{-1}$ ). We also compared the synthetic wind speed data generated using each of the four neutral wind profile formulas under examination with Advanced SCATterometer (ASCAT) data. Comparisons revealed that the 'LMS without${\psi}_{\nu}^{\prime}$ produced the best results, with only$0.191m\;s^{-1}$ of bias and$1.111m\;s^{-1}$ of RMSD. As well as comparing these four different approaches, we also explored potential refinements that could be applied within or through each approach. Firstly, we tested the effect of tidal variations in sea level height on wind speed calculations, through comparison of results generated with and without the adjustment of sea level heights for tidal effects. Tidal adjustment of the sea levels used in reference wind speed calculations resulted in remarkably small bias (<$0.0001m\;s^{-1}$ ) and RMSD (<$0.012m\;s^{-1}$ ) values when compared to calculations performed without adjustment, indicating that this tidal effect can be ignored for the purposes of IORS reference wind speed estimates. We also estimated surface roughness heights ($z_0$ ) based on RHLL and LMS calculations in order to explore the best parameterization of this factor, with results leading to our recommendation of a new$z_0$ parameterization derived from observed wind speed data. Lastly, we suggest the necessity of including a suitable, experimentally derived, surface drag coefficient and$z_0$ formulas within conventional wind profile formulas for situations characterized by strong wind (${\geq}33m\;s^{-1}$ ) conditions, since without this inclusion the wind adjustment approaches used in this study are only optimal for wind speeds${\leq}25m\;s^{-1}$ .
Corporate Default Prediction Model Using Deep Learning Time Series Algorithm, RNN and LSTM (딥러닝 시계열 알고리즘 적용한 기업부도예측모형 유용성 검증)
- Cha, Sungjae;Kang, Jungseok
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- Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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- v.24 no.4
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- pp.1-32
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- 2018
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In addition to stakeholders including managers, employees, creditors, and investors of bankrupt companies, corporate defaults have a ripple effect on the local and national economy. Before the Asian financial crisis, the Korean government only analyzed SMEs and tried to improve the forecasting power of a default prediction model, rather than developing various corporate default models. As a result, even large corporations called 'chaebol enterprises' become bankrupt. Even after that, the analysis of past corporate defaults has been focused on specific variables, and when the government restructured immediately after the global financial crisis, they only focused on certain main variables such as 'debt ratio'. A multifaceted study of corporate default prediction models is essential to ensure diverse interests, to avoid situations like the 'Lehman Brothers Case' of the global financial crisis, to avoid total collapse in a single moment. The key variables used in corporate defaults vary over time. This is confirmed by Beaver (1967, 1968) and Altman's (1968) analysis that Deakins'(1972) study shows that the major factors affecting corporate failure have changed. In Grice's (2001) study, the importance of predictive variables was also found through Zmijewski's (1984) and Ohlson's (1980) models. However, the studies that have been carried out in the past use static models. Most of them do not consider the changes that occur in the course of time. Therefore, in order to construct consistent prediction models, it is necessary to compensate the time-dependent bias by means of a time series analysis algorithm reflecting dynamic change. Based on the global financial crisis, which has had a significant impact on Korea, this study is conducted using 10 years of annual corporate data from 2000 to 2009. Data are divided into training data, validation data, and test data respectively, and are divided into 7, 2, and 1 years respectively. In order to construct a consistent bankruptcy model in the flow of time change, we first train a time series deep learning algorithm model using the data before the financial crisis (2000~2006). The parameter tuning of the existing model and the deep learning time series algorithm is conducted with validation data including the financial crisis period (2007~2008). As a result, we construct a model that shows similar pattern to the results of the learning data and shows excellent prediction power. After that, each bankruptcy prediction model is restructured by integrating the learning data and validation data again (2000 ~ 2008), applying the optimal parameters as in the previous validation. Finally, each corporate default prediction model is evaluated and compared using test data (2009) based on the trained models over nine years. Then, the usefulness of the corporate default prediction model based on the deep learning time series algorithm is proved. In addition, by adding the Lasso regression analysis to the existing methods (multiple discriminant analysis, logit model) which select the variables, it is proved that the deep learning time series algorithm model based on the three bundles of variables is useful for robust corporate default prediction. The definition of bankruptcy used is the same as that of Lee (2015). Independent variables include financial information such as financial ratios used in previous studies. Multivariate discriminant analysis, logit model, and Lasso regression model are used to select the optimal variable group. The influence of the Multivariate discriminant analysis model proposed by Altman (1968), the Logit model proposed by Ohlson (1980), the non-time series machine learning algorithms, and the deep learning time series algorithms are compared. In the case of corporate data, there are limitations of 'nonlinear variables', 'multi-collinearity' of variables, and 'lack of data'. While the logit model is nonlinear, the Lasso regression model solves the multi-collinearity problem, and the deep learning time series algorithm using the variable data generation method complements the lack of data. Big Data Technology, a leading technology in the future, is moving from simple human analysis, to automated AI analysis, and finally towards future intertwined AI applications. Although the study of the corporate default prediction model using the time series algorithm is still in its early stages, deep learning algorithm is much faster than regression analysis at corporate default prediction modeling. Also, it is more effective on prediction power. Through the Fourth Industrial Revolution, the current government and other overseas governments are working hard to integrate the system in everyday life of their nation and society. Yet the field of deep learning time series research for the financial industry is still insufficient. This is an initial study on deep learning time series algorithm analysis of corporate defaults. Therefore it is hoped that it will be used as a comparative analysis data for non-specialists who start a study combining financial data and deep learning time series algorithm.
The Origin of Changseung and Ongjung Stone (장승의 기원과 옹중석)
- Chung, Seung Mo
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- Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
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- v.46 no.1
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- pp.160-175
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- 2013
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There is the need to make a sharp distinction as regards JANGSEUNGs (Korean traditional totem poles) that are different in origin, history and function. This study is to identify the functions of the figures, as well as to trace stone JANGSEUNGs to their origins. In this regard, researched were conducted into the origins of JANGSEUNGs and their changes in history. There was a tradition in the GORYEO Dynasty (an ancient dynasty in the Korean Peninsula) that it erected JANGSAENGs (the archaic name of JANGSEUNGs) or allied stone figures within temples; especially, 'TONGDOSA GUKJANGSAENG SEOKPYO (a stone JANGSAENG that was erected by the royal command and is at the entrance of TONGDO Temple located in YANGSAN, South GYEONGSANG Province, South Korea)' functions as a stone monument rather than as a stone sign. In the engraved inscription, it is written that it should be erected in the form of PANA as before. 'PANA' refers to 'ZHONGKUI', a god in Chinese Taoism believed to exorcise devils that spread diseases. The inscription is to define the territory of TONGDO Temple. The article on HAN JUN GYEOM in a book 'WORAKGI (a travelogue on WORAK Mountain in North CHUNGCHEONG Province, South Korea)' written by HEO MOK makes it possible to guess the scale of GUKJANGSAENGs erected in DOGAP Temple. The stones, on which 'GUKJANGSAENG' or 'HWANGJANGSAENG' were engraved, are not JANGSAENGs but are demarcation posts. In the JOSEON Dynasty (the last dynasty in the Korean Peninsula) JANGSAENGs functioned as signposts. Unlike JANGSAENGs in temples, they were made of wood. At first, the word 'JANGSAENG' was written '長生' in Chinese characters, but in the JOSEON Dynasty another character '木 (wood)' was added to them, and thus the orthography was likely to change into 'JANGSEUNG.' In the JOSEON Dynasty, in addition, optative or geomantic figures were not called 'JANGSEUNG.' Historically, for instance, there has been no case where 'DOL HARBANGs (stone figures found only in JEJU ISLAND, South Korea)' are called 'JANGSEUNG.' In a book 'TAMRA GINYEON (a historical record on JEJU Island, South Korea)' it is written that KIM MONG GYU, JEJU governor, erected ONGJUNG Stones outside the fortress gate. ONGJUNG Stones usually refer to stone statues erected in front of ancient kings or dignitaries' mausoleums. Moreover, they were geomantic figures erected to suppress miasma. A magazine 'GWANGJUEUPJI (a journal on old GWANGJU, South Korea, 1899)' shows that two two ONGJUNG Stones were so erected that they might look at each other to suppress miasma from a pathway through which lucks lose. On the two stone figures located in BUAN-EUP, North JEOLLA Province, South Korea, inscriptions 'SANGWON JUJANGGUN' and 'HAWON DANGJANGGUN' were engraved. The words are to identify the figures' sexes. They are a kind of optative geomantic figures, and therefore there is no reason to call them 'JANGSAENG' or 'JANGSEUNG' or 'DANGSAN.' The words 'SANGWON' and 'HAWON' are closely associated with Taoism. Since then, the words have been widely used as inscriptions on stone figures in temples, and subsequently are used for JANGSEUNGs. A hatted ONGJUNG Stone, found in BUKANSAN Fortress, disappeared and other ones may be being buried somewhere. Meanwhile, ONGJUNG Stones in JEJU Island and stone figures in BUAN-EUP have hardly been displaced and thus have properly functioned. Stone figures, made in those days, seem to be most similar in function to JANGSAENGs made during the GORYEO Dynasty. Specifically, like earlier JANGSAENGs, stone figures made during the early to mid-18th century were likely to function not only as optative figures but as boundary stones. Most of stone figures in temples were made whenever the land use survey was conducted throughout the nation, but given that at the same period of time, the commonalty filed many lawsuits against grave sites, temples might erect many stone figures to mark their territories. Currently, wooden or stone figures are commonly called 'JANGSEUNG', but they were erected in different epochs and for different reasons. Their origins are to be sought in stone figures that functioned not only as optative figures in temples but as boundary stones during the GORYEO Dynasty.
The Value and Growing Characteristics of the Dicentra Spectabilis Community in Daea-ri, Wanju-gun, Jeollabuk-do as a Nature Reserve (전북 완주군 대아리 금낭화 Dicentra spectabilis 군락지의 천연보호구역적 가치와 생육특성)
- Lee, Suk Woo;Rho, Jae Hyun;Oh, Hyun Kyung
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- Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
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- v.44 no.1
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- pp.72-105
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- 2011
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This study explores the value of the Dicentra spectabilis community as a nature reserve in provincial forests at San 1-2, Daea-ri, Dongsang-myeon, Wanju-gun, Jellabuk-do, also known as Gamakgol, while defining the appropriateness of its living environment and eventually providing basic information to protect this area. For these reasons, we investigated 'morphological and biological features of Dicentra spectabilis' and the 'present situation and problems of designing a herbaceous nature reserve in Korea.' Furthermore, we researched and analyzed the solar, soil and vegetation condition here through a field study in order to comprehend its nature reserve value. The result is as follows. According to the analytic result for information on the domestic wild Dicentra spectabilis community, it is evenly spread throughout mountainous areas, and there is one particularly outstanding in size in Wanju Gamakgol. Upon the findings from literature and the field study about its dispersion, Gamakgol has been discovered as an ideal district for Dicentra spectabilis since it meets all the conditions this plant requires to grow vigorously, such as a quasi-high altitude and rich precipitation during its period of active growth duration in May. Dicentra spectabilis grows in rocky soil ranging from 300~375m above sea level, 344.5m on average, towards the north, northwest and dominantly in the northeast. The mean inclination degree is
$19.5^{\circ}$ . Also, upon findings from analyzing solar conditions, the average light intensity during its growth duration, from Apr. to Aug., is 30,810lux on average and it tends to increase, as it gets closer to the end. This plant requires around 14,000~18,000lux while growing, but once bloomed, fruits develop regardless of the degree of brightness. The soil pH has shown a slight difference between the topsoil, at 5.2~6.1, and subsoil, at 5.2~6.2. Its mean pH is 5.54 for topsoil and 5.58 for subsoil. These results are very typical for Dicentra spectabilis to grow in, and other comparative areas also present similar conditions. Given the facts, the character of the soil in Gamakgol has been evaluated to have high stability. Analysis of its vegetation environment shows a wide variation of taxa numbering from 13 to 52 depending on area. The total number of taxa is 126 and they are a homogenous group while showing a variety of species as well. The Dicentra spectabilis community in the Daea-ri Arboretum is an herbaceous community consisting of dominantly Dicentra spectabilis, Cardamine leucantha, Boehmeria tricuspi and Impatiens textori while having many differential species such as Impatiens textori, Pueraria thunbergiana, Rubus crataegifolius vs Staphylea bumalda, Securinega suffruticosa, and Actinidia polygama. It suggests that it is a typical subcolony divided by topographic features and soil humidity. Considering the above results on a comprehensive level, this area is an excellent habitat for wild Dicentra spectabilis providing beautiful viewing enjoyment. Additionally, it is the largest wild colony of Dicentra spectabilis in Korea whose climate, topography, soil conditions and vegetation environment can secure sustainability as a wild habitat of Dicentra spectabilis. Therefore, We have determined that the Gamakgol community should be re-examined as natural asset owing to its established habitat conditions and sustainability.
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