• Title/Summary/Keyword: series model

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Design of a 2MW Blade for Wind Turbine and Uni-Directional Fluid Structure Interaction Simulation (2 MW급 풍력터빈 블레이드 설계 및 단방향 유체-구조연성해석)

  • Kim, Bum-Suk;Lee, Kang-Su;Kim, Mann-Eung
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers B
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    • v.33 no.12
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    • pp.1007-1013
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    • 2009
  • The purposes of this study are to evaluate the power performance through CFD analysis and structural integrity through uni-directional FSI analysis in aerodynamic design and structure design of wind turbine blade. The blade was designed to generate the power of 2MW under the rated wind speed of 11 m/s, consisting of NACA 6 series, DU series and FFA series airfoil. The inside section of the blade was designed into D-spar structure and circular stiffener was placed to reinforce the structural strength in the part of hub. CFD analysis with the application of transitional turbulence model was performed to evaluate the power performance of blade according to the change of TSR and 2.024MW resulted under the condition of rated wind speed. TSR of 9 produced the maximum power coefficient and in this case, Cp was 0.494. This study applied uni-directional FSI analysis for more precise evaluation of structural integrity of blade, and the results of fiber failure, inter fiber failure and eigenvalue buckling analysis were evaluated, respectively. For the evaluation, Puck's failure criteria was applied and the result showed that fiber failure and inter fiber failure did not occur under every possible condition of the analysis. As a result, power performance and structural integrity of 2 MW blade designed in this study turned out to satisfy the initial design goals.

I-TGARCH Models and Persistent Volatilities with Applications to Time Series in Korea (지속-변동성을 가진 비대칭 TGARCH 모형을 이용한 국내금융시계열 분석)

  • Hong, S.Y.;Choi, S.M.;Park, J.A.;Baek, J.S.;Hwang, S.Y.
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.605-614
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    • 2009
  • TGARCH models characterized by asymmetric volatilities have been useful for analyzing various time series in financial econometrics. We are concerned with persistent volatility in the TGARCH context. Park et al. (2009) introduced I-TGARCH process exhibiting a certain persistency in volatility. This article applies I-TGARCH model to various financial time series in Korea and it is obtained that I-TGARCH provides a better fit than competing models.

Extreme Quantile Estimation of Losses in KRW/USD Exchange Rate (원/달러 환율 투자 손실률에 대한 극단분위수 추정)

  • Yun, Seok-Hoon
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.16 no.5
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    • pp.803-812
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    • 2009
  • The application of extreme value theory to financial data is a fairly recent innovation. The classical annual maximum method is to fit the generalized extreme value distribution to the annual maxima of a data series. An alterative modern method, the so-called threshold method, is to fit the generalized Pareto distribution to the excesses over a high threshold from the data series. A more substantial variant is to take the point-process viewpoint of high-level exceedances. That is, the exceedance times and excess values of a high threshold are viewed as a two-dimensional point process whose limiting form is a non-homogeneous Poisson process. In this paper, we apply the two-dimensional non-homogeneous Poisson process model to daily losses, daily negative log-returns, in the data series of KBW/USD exchange rate, collected from January 4th, 1982 until December 31 st, 2008. The main question is how to estimate extreme quantiles of losses such as the 10-year or 50-year return level.

Dietary and modifiable factors contributing to hyper-LDL-cholesterolemia prevalence in nationwide time series data and the implications for primary prevention strategies

  • Baik, Inkyung
    • Nutrition Research and Practice
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.62-69
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    • 2020
  • BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: A number of studies examined secular trends in blood lipid profiles using time series data of national surveys whereas few studies investigated individual-level factors contributing to such trends. The present study aimed to examine secular trends in dietary and modifiable factors and hyper-LDL-cholesterolemia (HC) prevalence and evaluate their associations using time series data of nationwide surveys. SUBJECTS/METHODS: The study included 41,073 Korean adults aged ≥ 30 years from the 2005, 2007-2009, 2010-2012, 2013-2015, and 2016 Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys. Stepwise logistic regression analysis was performed to select significant factors associated with HC, which was defined as serum LDL cholesterol levels ≥130 mg/dL. RESULTS: The following factors showed a positive association with HC (P < 0.05): for men having higher body mass index (BMI), being married, having an office job, and consuming higher dairy and vegetable oil products; for women having higher age or BMI, having no job or a non-office job, not in a low-income household, and consuming higher dairy products. In the given model, the 2016 survey data showed that a 2 kg/㎡ reduction in BMI of obese persons resulted in a decreased HC prevalence from 30.8% to 29.3% among men and from 33.6% to 32.5% among women. CONCLUSIONS: Based on these findings, it is suggested that primary prevention programs should advocate having proper BMI for Korean adults with a high-risk of HC. However, whether discouraging consumption of dairy and vegetable oil products can reduce HC prevalence warrants further studies with a prospective longitudinal design.

Analyzing the drought event in 2015 through statistical drought frequency analysis (통계학적 가뭄빈도분석 기법을 통한 2015년 가뭄사상에 대한 분석)

  • Lee, Taesam;Son, Chanyoung
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.49 no.3
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    • pp.177-186
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    • 2016
  • Drought is a water-related natural disaster which can be simply described as spatially and temporally sequential absence of water. However, its characteristics are very difficult to define. For this reason, the preparation and mitigation from drought events have not been successful. In the current study, we illustrated a design drought estimation approach of water resources infrastructures as well as the existing theoretical one to prepare and mitigate drought disasters. Theoretical and simulation methods were tested including three time series models such as autoregressive (AR), Gamma AR, Copula AR models. The results indicated that for South Korea region, the simulation-based method to estimate drought frequency presented better performance and all the three time series models show similar performance to each other. The current drought event occurring in South Korea was investigated with dividing South Korea into four basins as Han River, Nakdong River, Geum River, and Nakdong River basins. The results showed that two middle and north basins presented significant drought events with 3 year drought duration and around 40 year return period while the other two southern regions illustrated relatively weaker drought events.

Trend analysis of the number of nurses and evaluation of nursing staffs expansion policy in Korean hospitals (시계열 자료를 이용한 병원 간호 인력의 변화 추이 및 병원 간호사 확보를 위한 정책의 효과 평가)

  • Park, Bo Hyun;Lee, Tae Jin;Park, Hyeung-Keun;Kim, Chul-Woung;Jeong, Baek-Geun;Lee, Sang-Yi
    • Health Policy and Management
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.297-314
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    • 2012
  • Purpose : The purpose of this study was to analyze the trend of the number of nursing staffs and skill mix and to assess the effectiveness of hospital nurse expansion policies in Korea. Methods : The trend of the number of nursing staffs and skill mix were analyzed using time series data, which composed of yearly series data from 1975 to 2009. The impact of hospital nurse expansion policies was estimated by autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) intervention model. Results : The number of general hospital and hospital nurses per 100 beds was decreased in late 1980s and late 1990s due to rapid growth of beds. As a result of the number of nurse aids per 100 beds decreased, skill mix became high in general hospital but nurse ratio among hospital nursing staffs was about 50%. Expansion of new nurse and revised differentiated inpatient fee were only effective in expansion of hospital nursing staffs. But they had no effect in general hospitals. Conclusion : In Korea, a few policies related to expansion of hospital nurses have an effect on increasing the number of hospital nurse. Nevertheless, level of hospital nursing staffs is inferior to that of general hospital.

Reduction of Electromagnetic Field from Wireless Power Transfer Using a Series-Parallel Resonance Circuit Topology

  • Kim, Jong-Hoon;Kim, Hong-Seok;Kim, In-Myoung;Kim, Young-Il;Ahn, Seung-Young;Kim, Ji-Seong;Kim, Joung-Ho
    • Journal of electromagnetic engineering and science
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.166-173
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    • 2011
  • In this paper, we implemented and analyzed a wireless power transfer (WPT) system with a CSPR topology. CSPR refers to constant current source, series resonance circuit topology of a transmitting coil, parallel resonance circuit topology of a receiving coil, and pure resistive loading. The transmitting coil is coupled by a magnetic field to the receiving coil without wire. Although the electromotive force (emf) is small (about 4.5V), the voltage on load resistor is 148V, because a parallel resonance scheme was adopted for the receiving coil. The implemented WPT system is designed to be able to transfer up to 1 kW power and can operate a LED TV. Before the implementation, the EMF reduction mechanism based on the use of ferrite and a metal shield box was confirmed by an EM simulation and we found that the EMF can be suppressed dramatically by using this shield. The operating frequency of the implemented WPT system is 30.7kHz and the air gap between two coils is 150mm. The power transferred to the load resistor is 147W and the real power transfer efficiency is 66.4 %.

A Study on the Optimal Forebody Forms for Minimum Wave Resistance (최소조파 저항성능을 갖는 최적 선수형상에 관한 연구)

  • Sung-Eun Kim
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.28-39
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    • 1991
  • A study on the optimization problems to find forebode shapes with minimum wavemaking and frictional resistance was performed. The afterbody was fixed as a given hull and only forebode offsets were treated as design variables. Design variables were divided into the offsets of given hull and small variation from them. For the wavemaking resistance calculation, Neumann-Kelvin theory was applied to the given hull and thin ship theory was applied to the small variation. ITTC 1957 model-ship correlation line was used for the calculation of frictional resistance. Hull surface was represented mathmatically using shape function. As object function, such as wavemaking and frictional rersistance, was quadratic form of offsets and constraints linear, quadratic programing problem could be constructed. The complementary pivot method was used to find the soulution of the quadratic programing problem. Calculations were perfomed for the Series 60 $C_{B}$=0.6. at Fn=0.289. A realistic hull form could be obtained by using proper constraints. From the results of calculation for the Series 60 $C_{B}$=0.6, it was concluded that present method gave optimal shape of bulbous bow showing a slight improvement in the wave resistance performance at design speed Fn=0.289 compared with the results from the ship theory only.

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Taeyoung Submerged-type Membrane Filtration for Advanced Drinking Water Treatment (태영 침지식 막여과 고도정수처리)

  • Yeon, Kyeongho;Cho, Jaebeom;Lee, Yunkyu;Kang, Hojung;Kim, Woogu
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.15-27
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    • 2013
  • In order to plan out the Daegu G membrane filtration water treatment plant, water quantity, water quality and process stability were evaluated using the field pilot-scale tests, during the six months of continuous operation, including low water temperature period. The field model experiments, which were carried out according to the Installation Criteria of Ministry of Environment, consisted of two series : series 1 - water quality verification, and series 2 - membrane process evaluation. The process water quality met all drinking water standards with less than 0.03 NTU. Moreover, process operation showed a stable membrane pressure with 99% of recovery ratio. This shows that the tests were properly designed in terms of the influence of water loading and temperature. In conclusion, the purpose of this study is to establish core technology for advanced drinking water treatment, through on-going accumulation of engineering and construction know-how.

Fatigue performance and life prediction methods research on steel tube-welded hollow spherical joint

  • Guo, Qi;Xing, Ying;Lei, Honggang;Jiao, Jingfeng;Chen, Qingwei
    • Steel and Composite Structures
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.75-86
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    • 2020
  • The grid structures with welded hollow spherical joint (WHSJ) have gained increasing popularity for use in industrial buildings with suspended cranes, and usually welded with steel tube (ST). The fatigue performance of steel tube-welded hollow spherical joint (ST-WHSJ) is however not yet well characterized, and there is little research on fatigue life prediction methods of ST-WHSJ. In this study, based on previous fatigue tests, three series of specimen fatigue data with different design parameters and stress ratios were compared, and two fatigue failure modes were revealed: failure at the weld toe of the ST and the WHSJ respectively. Then, S-N curves of nominal stress were uniformed. Furthermore, a finite element model (FEM) was validated by static test, and was introduced to assess fatigue behavior with the hot spot stress method (HSSM) and the effective notch stress method (ENSM). Both methods could provide conservative predictions, and these two methods had similar results. However, ENSM, especially when using von Mises stress, had a better fit for the series with a non- positive stress ratio. After including the welding residual stress and mean stress, analyses with the local stress method (LSM) and the critical distance method (CDM, including point method and line method) were carried out. It could be seen that the point method of CDM led to more accurate predictions than LSM, and was recommended for series with positive stress ratios.