Journal of Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회논문집)

Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Analyzing the drought event in 2015 through statistical drought frequency analysis

통계학적 가뭄빈도분석 기법을 통한 2015년 가뭄사상에 대한 분석

  • Lee, Taesam (Department of Civil Engineering, Gyungsang National University) ;
  • Son, Chanyoung (Department of Civil Engineering, Gyungsang National University)
  • 이태삼 (경상대학교 토목공학과) ;
  • 손찬영 (경상대학교 토목공학과)
  • Received : 2015.11.20
  • Accepted : 2016.01.04
  • Published : 2016.03.31
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

Drought is a water-related natural disaster which can be simply described as spatially and temporally sequential absence of water. However, its characteristics are very difficult to define. For this reason, the preparation and mitigation from drought events have not been successful. In the current study, we illustrated a design drought estimation approach of water resources infrastructures as well as the existing theoretical one to prepare and mitigate drought disasters. Theoretical and simulation methods were tested including three time series models such as autoregressive (AR), Gamma AR, Copula AR models. The results indicated that for South Korea region, the simulation-based method to estimate drought frequency presented better performance and all the three time series models show similar performance to each other. The current drought event occurring in South Korea was investigated with dividing South Korea into four basins as Han River, Nakdong River, Geum River, and Nakdong River basins. The results showed that two middle and north basins presented significant drought events with 3 year drought duration and around 40 year return period while the other two southern regions illustrated relatively weaker drought events.

가뭄은 시공간적으로 점차적인 수분부족이 나타나는 자연재해로 비교적 간단하게 설명될 수 있다. 그러나 가뭄이 가지는 특징을 보다 명확하게 정의하기는 매우 어려우며 또한 가뭄에 대한 대비 및 정부의 대응이 미흡한 실정이다. 따라서, 본 연구에서는 가뭄재해의 대응책 마련 및 수공구조물 설계 운영기준에 활용하고자 이론적인 가뭄 재현기간 산정기법과 더불어 3가지 시계열 모델(autoregressive (AR), Gamma AR, Copula AR)을 통해 장기간의 자료를 모의하여 가뭄사상에 대한 빈도를 산정하고자 하였다. 분석결과, 시계열 모델을 활용하여 모의된 가뭄의 빈도 결과가 이론적인 기법을 통해 산정된 것보다 합리적인 결과가 도출되었으며, 모든 시계열 모델에서 유사한 결과가 도출되었다. 또한 남한지역에 발생하고 있는 현재의 가뭄사상 분석에 대해 총 4개의 대권역으로 분류하여 분석을 수행하였으며 분석결과 국내의 남부지방은 상대적으로 약한 가뭄이 발생하는 반면에 북부 및 중부지방은 현재 3년의 가뭄 지속기간을 가지는 가뭄이 발생하고 있으며 약 40년 빈도의 가뭄으로 분석되었다.

Keywords

References

  1. Byun, H.R., and Wilhite, D.A. (1999). "Objective quantification of drought severity and duration." Journal of Climate, Vol. 12, No. 9, pp. 2747-2756. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<2747:OQODSA>2.0.CO;2
  2. Cha, Y., Choi, K.-S., Chang, K.-H., Lee, J.-Y., and Shin, D.-S. (2014). "Characteristics of the changes in tropical cyclones influencing the South Korean region over the recent 10 years (2001-2010)." Natural Hazards, Vol. 74, 3, pp. 1729-1741. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1275-4
  3. Du Pisani, L.G., Fouche, H.J., and Venter, J.C. (1998). "Assessing rangeland drought in South Africa." Agric. Syst., Vol. 57, No. 3, pp. 367-380. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0308-521X(98)00024-9
  4. Fernandez, B., and Salas, J.D. (1990). "Gamma-Autoregressive Models for Stream-Flow Simulation." Journal of Hydraulic Engineering-Asce, Vol. 116, No. 11, pp. 1403-1414. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9429(1990)116:11(1403)
  5. Guven, O. (1983). "A simplified semiempirical approach to probabilities of extreme hydrologic droughts." Water Resources Research, Vol. 19, No. 2, pp. 441-453. https://doi.org/10.1029/WR019i002p00441
  6. Hanson, P.J., and Weltzin, J.F. (2000). "Drought disturbance from climate change: Response of United States forests." Sci. Total Environ., Vol. 262, No. 3, pp. 205-220. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0048-9697(00)00523-4
  7. Hao, Z., AghaKouchak, A. (2013). "Multivariate Standardized Drought Index: A parametric multi-index model." Adv. Water Resour., Vol. 57, pp. 12-18. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2013.03.009
  8. Heim Jr., R.R. (2002). "A review of twentieth-century drought indices used in the United States." Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., Vol. 83, No. 8, pp. 1149-1165. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(2002)083<1149:AROTDI>2.3.CO;2
  9. Keyantash, J.A., and Dracup, J.A. (2002). "The quantification of drought: An evaluation of drought indices." Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., Vol. 83, No. 8, pp. 1167-1180. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(2002)083<1191:TQODAE>2.3.CO;2
  10. Keyantash, J.A., and Dracup, J.A. (2004). "An aggregate drought index: Assessing drought severity based on fluctuations in the hydrologic cycle and surface water storage." Water Resources Research, Vol. 40, No. 9, pp. 1-13.
  11. Kim, B.-S., Sung, J.-H., Kang, H.-S., and Cho, C.-H. (2012). "Assessment of Drought Severity over South Korea using Standardized Precipitation Evapo-transpiration Index (SPEI)." Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, Vol. 45, No. 9, pp. 887-900. https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2012.45.9.887
  12. Kim, C.J., Park, M.J., and Lee, J.H. (2014). "Analysis of climate change impacts on the spatial and frequency patterns of drought using a potential drought hazard mapping approach." International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 34, No. 1, pp. 61-80. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3666
  13. Kim, J.-S., Kang, H.-W., Son, C.-Y., and Moon, Y.-I. (2015). "Spatial variations in typhoon activities and precipitation trends over the Korean Peninsula." Journal of Hydroenvironment Research, doi:10.1016/j.jher.2014.12.005
  14. KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) (2011). "Changma White Book".
  15. Kwon, H.J., Park, H.J., Hong, D.O., and Kim, S.J. (2006). "A Study on Semi-distributed Hydrologic Drought Assessment Modifying SWSI." Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, Vol. 39, No. 8, pp. 645-658. https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2006.39.8.645
  16. Lee, J.H., Cho, K.J., Kim, C.J., and Park, M.J. (2012). "Analysis on the Spatio-Temporal Distribution of Drought using Potential Drought Hazard Map." Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, Vol. 45, No. 10, pp. 983-995. https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2012.45.10.983
  17. Lee, J.H., and Kim, C.J. (2013). "A multimodel assessment of the climate change effect on the drought severity-duration-frequency relationship." Hydrological Processes, Vol. 27, No. 19, pp. 2800-2813. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9390
  18. Lee, T., and Salas, J.D. (2011). "Copula-based stochastic simulation of hydrological data applied to Nile River flows." Hydrol. Res., Vol. 42, No. 4, pp. 318-330. https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2011.085
  19. McKee, T.B., Doesken, N.J., and Kleist, J. (1993). "The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales." 8th Conf. on Applied Climatology, January 17-22, American Meteorological Society, pp. 179-184.
  20. Palmer, W.C. (1965). "Meteorological drought." Research paper, 45.
  21. Ryu, J.H., Lee, D.R., Ahn, J.H., and Yoon, Y.N. (2002). "A Comparative Study on the Drought Indices for Drought Evaluation." Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, Vol. 35, No. 4, pp. 397-410. https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2002.35.4.397
  22. Salas, J.D., Delleur, J.W., Yevjevich, V., and Lane, W.L. (1980). "Applied Modeling of Hydrologic Time Series." Water Resources Publications, Littleton, Colorado, pp. 484.
  23. Salas, J.D., Fu, C., Cancelliere, A., Dustin, D., Bode, D., Pineda, A., and Vincent, E. (2005). "Characterizing the severity and risk of drought in the Poudre River, Colorado." J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., Vol. 131, No. 5, pp. 383-393. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(2005)131:5(383)
  24. Shafer, B.A., and Dezman, L.E. (1982). "Development of a surface water supply index (swsi) to assess the severity of drought conditions in snowpack runoff areas." Proceedings of the Western Snow Conference, 50th Annual Meeting., pp. 164-175.
  25. Shiau, J.T., and Shen, H.W. (2001). "Recurrence analysis of hydrologic droughts of differing severity." J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., Vol. 127, No. 1, pp. 30-40. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(2001)127:1(30)
  26. So, J.M., Sohn, K.H., and Bae, D.H. (2014). "Estimation and Assessment of Bivariate Joint Drought Index based on Copula Functions." Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, Vol. 47, No. 2, pp. 171-182. https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2014.47.2.171
  27. Son, K.-H., Bae, D.-H., and Chung, J.-S. (2011). "Drought Analysis and Assessment by Using Land Surface Model on South Korea." Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, Vol. 44, No. 8, pp. 667-681. https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2011.44.8.667
  28. TRC (Typhoon Research Center) (2015). http://www.typhoon.or.kr. Accessed 24 December, 2015.
  29. Yevjevich, V. (1967). "An objective approach to definitions and investigations of continental hydrologic droughts." Colorado State University Fort Collins.
  30. Yoo, J.-Y., Choi, M.-H., and Kim, T.-W. (2010). "Spatial Analysis of Drought Characteristics in Korea Using Cluster Analysis." Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, Vol. 43, No. 1, pp. 15-24. https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2010.43.1.15

Cited by

  1. A development of trivariate drought frequency analysis approach using copula function vol.49, pp.10, 2016, https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2016.49.10.823