• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.91-99
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• 2019

Fragility analysis is an effective tool that is frequently used for seismic risk assessment of bridges. There are three different approaches to derive a fragility curve: experimental, empirical and analytical. Both experimental and empirical methods to derive fragility curve are based on past earthquake reports and expert opinions which are not suitable for all bridges. Therefore, analytical fragility analysis becomes important. Nonlinear time history analysis is commonly used which is the most reliable method for determining probabilistic demand models. In this study, to determine the probabilistic demand models of bridges, time history analyses were performed considering both material and geometrical nonlinearities. Serviceability limit states for three different service velocities were considered as a performance goal. Also, support displacements, component yielding and collapse limits were taken into account. Both serviceability and component fragility were derived by using maximum likely hood methods. Finally, the seismic performance and critical members of the bridge were probabilistically determined and clearly presented.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.60 no.5
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• pp.875-890
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• 2016

A new structural damage index for seismic fragility analysis of reinforced concrete columns is developed based on a local tensile damage variable of the Lee and Fenves plastic-damage model. The proposed damage index is formulated from the nonlinear regression of experimental column test data. In contrast to the response-based damage index, the proposed damage index is well-defined in the form of a single monotonically-increasing function of the volume weighted average of local damage distribution, and provides the necessary computability and objectivity. It is shown that the present damage index can be appropriately zoned to be used in seismic fragility analysis. An application example in the computational seismic fragility evaluation of reinforced concrete columns validates the effectiveness of the proposed damage index.

• Journal of Korean Association for Spatial Structures
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.89-96
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• 2018

The paper presents the damage estimation of bridge structures in Daegu city based on the scenario-based earthquakes. Since the fragility curves for domestic bridge strucures are limited, the Hazus methodology is employed to derive the fragility curves and estimate the damage. A total of four earthuquake scenarios near Daegu city are assumed and structure damage is investigated for 81 bridge structures. The seismic fragility function and damage level of each bridge had adopted from the analytical method in HAZUS and then, the damage probability using seismic fragility function for each bridge was evaluated. It was concluded that the seismic damage to bridges was higher when the magnitude of the earthquake was large or nearer to the epicenter.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.18 no.6
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• pp.709-718
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• 2020

Fragility curves are useful tools to estimate the damage probability of buildings owing to seismic actions. The purpose of this study is to investigate seismic vulnerability of reinforced concrete (RC) buildings, according to the 2007 and 2018 Turkish Seismic Codes, using fragility curves. For the numerical analyses, typical five- and seven-storey RC buildings were selected and incremental dynamic analyses (IDA) were performed. To complete the IDAs, eleven earthquake acceleration records multiplied by various scaling factors from 0.2g to 0.8g were used. To predict nonlinearity, a distributed hinge model that involves material and geometric nonlinearity of the structural members was used. Damages to confined concrete and reinforcement bar of structural members were obtained by considering the unit deformation demands of the 2007 Turkish Seismic Code (TSC-2007) and the 2018 Turkey Building Earthquake Code (TBEC-2018). Vulnerability evaluation of these buildings was performed using fragility curves based on the results of incremental dynamic analyses. Fragility curves were generated in terms of damage levels occurring in confined concrete and reinforcement bar of structural members with a lognormal distribution assumption. The fragility curves show that the probability of damage occurring is more according to TBEC-2018 than according to TSC-2007 for selected buildings.

• Proceedings of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea Conference
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• 2006.03a
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• pp.597-604
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• 2006

The seismic safety of the prestressed concrete containment building was evaluated by the seismic fragility analysis based on the nonlinear dynamic time-history analyses. Four kinds of earthquake ground motions were used for the seismic fragility analysis of the containment building to consider the potential earthquake hazard. The conventional seismic fragility analysis of the safety related structures in nuclear pouter plant have been performed by using the linear elastic analysis results for the seismic design. In this study, the displacement based seismic fragility analysis method was proposed.

• Structural Monitoring and Maintenance
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• v.10 no.3
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• pp.243-260
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• 2023

Indonesia has had seismic codes for earthquake-resistant structures designs since 1970 and has been updated five times to the latest in 2019. In updating the Indonesian seismic codes, seismic hazard maps for design also update, and there are changes to the Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA). Indonesian seismic design uses the concept of building performance levels consisting of Immediate occupancy (IO), Life Safety (LS), and Collapse Prevention (CP). Related to this performance level, cases still found that buildings were damaged more than their performance targets after the earthquake. Based on the above issues, this study aims to analyze the performance of base isolation design on existing target buildings and analyze the seismic fragility for a case study in Indonesia. The target building is a prototype design 8-story medium-rise residential building using the reinforced concrete moment frame structure. Seismic fragility analysis uses Incremental Dynamic Analysis (IDA) with Nonlinear Time History Analysis (NLTHA) and eleven selected ground motions based on soil classification, magnitude, fault distance, and earthquake source mechanism. The comparison result of IDA shows a trend of significant performance improvement, with the same performance level target and risk category, the base isolation structure can be used at 1.46-3.20 times higher PGA than the fixed base structure. Then the fragility analysis results show that the fixed base structure has a safety margin of 30% and a base isolation structure of 62.5% from the PGA design. This result is useful for assessing existing buildings or considering a new building's performance.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.22 no.5
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• pp.503-515
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• 2022

This paper presents the development of seismic fragility curves for a precast reinforced concrete bridge instrumented with a structural health monitoring (SHM) system. The bridge is located near an active seismic fault in the Dominican Republic (DR) and provides the only access to several local communities in the aftermath of a potential damaging earthquake; moreover, the sample bridge was designed with outdated building codes and uses structural detailing not adequate for structures in seismic regions. The bridge was instrumented with an SHM system to extract information about its state of structural integrity and estimate its seismic performance. The data obtained from the SHM system is integrated with structural models to develop a set of fragility curves to be used as a quantitative measure of the expected damage; the fragility curves provide an estimate of the probability that the structure will exceed different damage limit states as a function of an earthquake intensity measure. To obtain the fragility curves a digital twin of the bridge is developed combining a computational finite element model and the information extracted from the SHM system. The digital twin is used as a response prediction tool that minimizes modeling uncertainty, significantly improving the predicting capability of the model and the accuracy of the fragility curves. The digital twin was used to perform a nonlinear incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) with selected ground motions that are consistent with the seismic fault and site characteristics. The fragility curves show that for the maximum expected acceleration (with a 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years) the structure has a 62% probability of undergoing extensive damage. This is the first study presenting fragility curves for civil infrastructure in the DR and the proposed methodology can be extended to other structures to support disaster mitigation and post-disaster decision-making strategies.

• Structural Monitoring and Maintenance
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.87-105
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• 2023

Seismic regulations have been updated from time to time to accommodate an increase in seismic hazards. Comparison of seismic fragility of the existing bridges in Indonesia from different historical periods since the era before 1990 will be the basis for seismic assessment of the bridge stock in Indonesia, most of which are located in earthquake-prone areas, especially those built many years ago with outdated regulations. In this study, seismic fragility curves were developed using incremental non-linear time history analysis and more holistically according to the actual strength of concrete and steel material in Indonesia to determine the uncertainty factor of structural capacity, βc. From the research that has been carried out, based on the current seismic load in SNI 2833:2016/Seismic Map 2017 (7% probability of exceedance in 75 years), the performance level of the bridge in the era before SNI 2833:2016 was Operational-Life Safety whereas the performance level of the bridge designed with SNI 2833:2016 was Elastic - Operational. The potential for more severe damage occurs in greater earthquake intensity. Collapse condition occurs at As = F_PGA x PGA value of bridge Era I = 0.93 g; Era II = 1.03 g; Era III = 1.22 g; Era IV = 1.54 g. Furthermore, the fragility analysis was also developed with geometric variations in the same bridge class to see the effect of these variations on the fragility, which is the basis for making bridge risk maps in Indonesia.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.10 no.4
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• pp.789-810
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• 2016

Reinforced concrete (RC) bridges with both skew and curvature are pretty common in areas with complex terrains. Existing studies have shown skewed and/or curved bridges exhibit more complicated seismic performance than straight bridges, and yet related seismic risk studies are still rare. These bridges deserve more studies in low-to-moderate seismic regions than those in seismic-prone areas. This is because for bridges with irregular and complex geometric designs, comprehensive seismic analysis is not always required and little knowledge about actual seismic risks for these bridges in low-to-moderate regions is available. To provide more insightful understanding of the seismic risks and the impact from the geometric configurations, analytical fragility studies are carried out on four typical bridge designs with different geometric configurations (i.e., straight, curved, skewed, skewed and curved) in the mountain west region of the United States. The results show the curved and skewed geometries can considerably affect the bridge seismic fragility in a complex manner, underscoring the importance of conducting detailed seismic risk assessment of skewed and curved bridges in low-to-moderate seismic regions.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.13 no.4
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• pp.421-427
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• 2017

Seismic safety evaluation of weir structure is significant considering the catastrophic economical consequence of operational disruption. In recent years, the seismic probabilistic risk assessment (SPRA) has been issued as a key area of research for the hydraulic system to mitigate and manage the risk. The aim of this paper is to assess the seismic probabilistic risk of weir structures employing the seismic hazard and the structural fragility in Korea. At the first stage, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) approach is performed to extract the hazard curve at the weir site using the seismic and geological data. Thereafter, the seismic fragility that defines the probability of structural collapse is evaluated by using the incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) method in accordance with the four different design limit states as failure identification criteria. Consequently, by combining the seismic hazard and fragility results, the seismic risk curves are developed that contain helpful information for risk management of hydraulic structures. The tensile stress of the mass concrete is found to be more vulnerable than other design criteria. The hazard deaggregation illustrates that moderate size and far source earthquakes are the most likely scenario for the site. In addition, the annual loss curves for two different hazard source models corresponding to design limit states are extracted.