• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.16 no.3
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• pp.695-703
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• 2005

This paper extends the maximum likelihood seasonal cointegration procedure developed by Johansen and Schaumburg (1999) for daily time series. The finite sample distribution of the associated rank test for dally data is also presented.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.365-382
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• 1997

In this paper we study the behaviors of the generalized Durbin-Watson (DW) statistics when the nonstationary seasonal time series regression model is misspecified. It is observed that when the series is seasonally integrated the generalized DW statistic for the seasonal period order autocorrelation converges in probability to zero while teh generalized DW statistic for the first order autocorrelation has nondegenerate asymptotic distribution. When the series is regularly and seasonally integrated the generalized DW for the first order autocorrelation still converges in probability to zero.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.29 no.1
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• pp.193-203
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• 2016

This paper forecasts electricity demand as a critical element of a demand management system in Smart Grid environment. We present a prediction method of using a combination of predictive values by time series clustering. Periodogram-based normalized clustering, predictive analysis clustering and dynamic time warping (DTW) clustering are proposed for time series clustering methods. Double Seasonal Holt-Winters (DSHW), Trigonometric, Box-Cox transform, ARMA errors, Trend and Seasonal components (TBATS), Fractional ARIMA (FARIMA) are used for demand forecasting based on clustering. Results show that the time series clustering method provides a better performances than the method using total amount of electricity demand in terms of the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE).

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.29 no.1
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• pp.231-242
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• 2016

X-13-ARIMA (a popular time series analysis software) provides $3{\times}3$, $3{\times}5$, $3{\times}9$, $3{\times}15$ moving average filters for seasonal adjustment. However, there has been questions on their performance and the need for new filters is a constant topic due to Korean economic time series often containing higher irregularity and more various seasonality than other countries. In this study, two newly developed seasonal moving average filters, $3{\times}7$ and $3{\times}11$, are introduced. New filters were implemented in X-13-ARIMA and applied to 15 economic time series to demonstrate their suitability and reliability. The result shows that some series are more stable when using new seasonal moving average filters. More accurate time series analyses would be possible if newly proposed filters are used together with existing filters.

• Advances in environmental research
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• v.4 no.2
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• pp.83-104
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• 2015

Air Quality Index (AQI) is a pointer to broadcast short term air quality. This paper presents one day ahead AQI forecasting on seasonal basis for three major cities in Maharashtra State, India by using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Genetic Programming (GP). The meteorological observations & previous AQI from 2005-2008 are used to predict next day's AQI. It was observed that GP captures the phenomenon better than ANN and could also follow the peak values better than ANN. The overall performance of GP seems better as compared to ANN. Stochastic nature of the input parameters and the possibility of auto-correlation might have introduced time lag and subsequent errors in predictions. Spectral Analysis (SA) was used for characterization of the error introduced. Correlational dependency (serial dependency) was calculated for all 24 models prepared on seasonal basis. Particular lags (k) in all the models were removed by differencing the series, that is converting each i'th element of the series into its difference from the (i-k)"th element. New time series is generated for all seasonal models in synchronization with the original time line & evaluated using ANN and GP. The statistical analysis and comparison of GP and ANN models has been done. We have proposed a promising approach of use of GP coupled with SA for real time prediction of seasonal multicity AQI.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• v.33 no.2
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• pp.149-157
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• 2004

The stationarity is one of the most important properties of a time series. We propose robust sign tests for seasonal autoregressive processes to determine whether or not a time series is stationary. The proposed tests are robust to the outliers and the heteroscedastic errors, and they have an exact binomial null distribution regardless of the period of seasonality and types of median adjustments. A Monte-Carlo simulation shows that the sign test is locally more powerful than the tests based on ordinary least squares estimator (OLSE) for heavy-tailed and/or heteroscedastic error distributions.

• Proceedings of the Korean Statistical Society Conference
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• 2003.05a
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• pp.281-286
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• 2003

The stationarity is one of the most important properties of a time series. We propose robust sign tests for seasonal autoregressive process to determine whether or not a time series is stationary. The tests have an exact binomial null distribution and are robust to the outliers and the heteroscedastic errors. Monte-Carlo simulation shows that the sign test is locally more powerful than the OLSE-based tests for heavy-tailed and/or heteroscedastic error distributions.

• Proceedings of the Korea Information Processing Society Conference
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• 2023.05a
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• pp.377-379
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• 2023

Concept drift detection on data stream is the major issue to maintain the performance of the machine learning model. Since the online stream is to be a function of time, the classical statistic methods are hard to apply. In particular case of seasonal time series, a novel window strategy with Fourier analysis however, gives a chance to adapt the classical methods on the series. We explore the KS-test for an adaptation of the periodic time series and show that this strategy handles a complicate time series as an ordinary tabular dataset. We verify that the detection with the strategy takes the second place in time delay and shows the best performance in false alarm rate and detection accuracy comparing to that of arbitrary window sizes.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.67-90
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• 1998

In this paper we analytically study model misspecification that arises in regression analysis of nonstationary seasonal time series. We assume the underlying data generating process is a seasonally or a regularly and seasonally integrated process. We first study consequences of totally misspecified cases where seasonal indicator variables, a linear time trend, or another statistically independent seasonally integrated process are used as predictor variables in order to model the nonstationary seasonal behavior of the dependent variable. Then we study consequences of partially misspecified cases where the dependent variable and a predictor variable are cointegrated at some, but not all of the frequencies corresponding to the nonstationary roots.

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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• v.26 no.6
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• pp.665-673
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• 2010

The role of remote sensing in phenological studies is increasingly regarded as a key in understanding large area seasonal phenomena. This paper describes the application of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) time series data for vegetation classification using seasonal variation patterns. The vegetation seasonal variation phase of Seoul and provinces in Korea was inferred using 8 day composite MODIS NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) dataset of 2006. The seasonal vegetation classification approach is performed with reclassification of 4 categories as urban, crop land, broad-leaf and needle-leaf forest area. The BISE (Best Index Slope Extraction) filtering algorithm was applied for a smoothing processing of MODIS NDVI time series data and fuzzy classification method was used for vegetation classification. The overall accuracy of classification was 77.5% and the kappa coefficient was 0.61%, thus suggesting overall high classification accuracy.