• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• 제39권4호
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• pp.346-352
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• 2006

Objectives: The purposes of this study were to propose a screening schedule for the early detection of breast cancer among Korean women, as based on the statistical model, and to compare the efficacy of the proposed screening schedule with the current recommendations. Methods: The development of the screening schedule for breast cancer closely followed the work of Lee and Zelen (1998). We calculated the age-specific breast cancer incidence rate from the Korea Central Cancer Registry (2003), and then we estimated the scheduling of periodic examinations for the early detection of breast cancer, using mammography, and based on the threshold method. The efficacy of the derived screening schedule was evaluated by the schedule sensitivity. Results: For estimating the screening schedule threshold method, we set the threshold value as the probability of being in the preclinical stage at age 35, the sensitivity of mammography as 0.9 and the mean sojourn time in the preclinical stage as 4 years. This method generated 14 examinations within the age interval [40, 69] of 40.0, 41.3, 42.7, 44.1, 45.4, 46.7, 48.0, 49.3, 51.0, 53.2, 55.3, 57.1, 59.0 and 63.6 years, and the schedule sensitivity was 75.4%. The proposed screening schedule detected 85.2% (74.5/87.4) of the cases that could have been detected by annual screening, but it required only about 48.7% (14.0/30.0) of the total number of examinations. We also examined the threshold screening schedules for a range of sensitivities of mammography and the mean sojourn time in the preclinical stage. Conclusions: The proposed screening schedule for breast cancer with using the threshold method will be helpful to provide guidelines for a public health program for choosing an effective screening schedule for breast cancer among Korean women.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제39권4호
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• pp.72-80
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• 2016

The market size of plant projects in overseas is so large that domestic EPC project contractors are actively seeking the overseas projects and then trying to meet completion plans since successful fulfillment of these projects can provide great opportunities for them to expand into new foreign markets. International EPC projects involve all of the uncertainties common to domestic projects as well as uncertainties specific to foreign projects including marine transportation, customs, regulations, nationality, culture and so on. When overseas project gets off-schedule, the resulting uncertainty may trigger unexpected exceptions and then critical effects to the project performance. It usually require much more time and costs to encounter these exceptions in foreign sites compared to domestic project sites. Therefore, an exception handling approach is required to manage exceptions effectively for successful project progress in foreign project sites. In this research, we proposed a methodology for prediction and evaluation of exceptions caused by risks in international EPC projects based on sensitivity analysis and Bayesian Networks. First, we identified project schedule risks and related exceptions, which may meet during the fulfillment of foreign EPC projects that is performed in a sequence of engineering, procurement, preparatory manufacture, foreign shipping, construction, inspection and modification activities, and affect project performance, using literature review and expert interviews. The impact of exceptions to the schedule delay were also identified. Second, we proposed a methodology to predict the occurrence of exceptions caused by project risks and evaluate them. Using sensitivity analysis, we can identify activities that critically affect schedule delay and need to focus by priority. Then, we use Bayesian Networks to predict and evaluate exceptions. Third, we applied the proposed methodology to an international EPC project example to validate the proposed approach. Finally, we concluded the research with the further research topics. We expect that the proposed approach can be extended to apply in exception management in project management.

• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 3th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• pp.400-408
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• 2009

Simulation applications for analyzing the productivity of construction operations at operation level and project schedules at project level are crucial methods in project management. The application at two different levels should be very tightly linked to each other in practice. However, appropriate integration at the levels is not achieved in that existing systems do not support to integrate operation models into a schedule model. This paper presents a new approach named to Discrete Event Simulation-Nesting modeling approach, which supports not only productivity analysis at operation level but also schedule management at a project level. The system developed by the authors allows creating operation models at the operation level, maintaining them in operation model library, executing sensitivity analysis to find the behaviors of the operation models when different combination of resources are used as existing DES systems do. On top of the conventional functions, the new system facilitates to find the optimum solution of resource combinations which satisfy the user's interest by computing the hourly productivity and the hourly cost of the operation. By drag-and-dropping an operation model kept in the operation model library, the operation models are integrated into an activity of the schedule model. When a complete schedule model is established by nesting operation models into the schedule model, stochastic simulation based scheduling is executed. A case study is presented to demonstrate the new simulation system and verify the validity of the system.

• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전기학회 2007년도 제38회 하계학술대회
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• pp.806-807
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• 2007

Systematic studies on the dispatch scheduling algorithm and related constraints can enhance the effectiveness of electricity market operation. When System Operator (SO) establishes a dispatch schedule, the bid information should be preserved in the schedule as much as possible. In this paper, we introduce a new type of sensitivity factor called Line Outage Impact Factor (LOIF) to screen a transmission line causing the most severe outage when scheduling the dispatch. This screening can assure the stable system operation and make an efficient feedback between the SO and market participants. We propose a transmission line contingency constrained Pre-dispatch algorithm using sensitivity indices in a suitable Pre-dispatch scheduling. The proposed algorithm has been tested on sample system and the results show more secure operation against critical contingencies.

• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 5th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• pp.397-402
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• 2013

In super-tall building construction projects, schedule risk factors which vertically change and are not found in the low and middle-rise building construction influence duration of a project by vertical attribute; and it makes hard to estimate activity or overall duration of a construction project. However, the existing duration estimating methods, that are based on quantity and productivity assuming activities of the same work item have the same risk and duration regardless of operation space, are not able to consider the schedule risk factors which change by the altitude of operation space. Therefore, in order to advance accuracy of duration estimation of super-tall building projects, the degree of changes of these risk factors according to altitude should be analyzed and incorporated into a duration estimating method. This research proposes a simulation model using Monte Carlo method for estimating activity duration incorporating schedule risk factors by weather conditions in a super-tall building. The research process is as follows. Firstly, the schedule risk factors in super-tall building are identified through literature and expert reviews, and occurrence of non-working days at high altitude by weather condition is identified as one of the critical schedule risk factors. Secondly, a calculating method of the vertical distributions of the weather factors such as temperature and wind speed is analyzed through literature reviews. Then, a probability distribution of the weather factors is developed using the weather database of the past decade. Thirdly, a simulation model and algorithms for estimating non-working days and duration of each activity is developed using Monte-Carlo method. Finally, sensitivity analysis and a case study are carried out for the validation of the proposed model.

• 대한산업공학회지
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• 제12권1호
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• pp.31-41
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• 1986

In this paper, an integrated production inventory model is developed for two products on a single facility in which the raw materials are fed to the production system as required at the facility. The aim is to determine simultaneously the optimal production schedule for two products and the optimal procurement policies for the raw materials in a way that minimizes the total variable cost of the production system. The production schedule for the more frequently set-up product is formulated by the method of equal or unequal lot sizes. For the model developed, we present a computational scheme of finding the optimal policies and carry out sensitivity analysis through example problem.

• 대한토목학회논문집
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• 제28권5D호
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• pp.587-595
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• 2008

1960년대부터 최근까지 버스 이용자들의 편의를 증진시키며 버스운영 측면에서 불필요한 운행을 최소화하기 위한 버스운행계획 최적화에 대한 많은 연구가 진행되어 왔다. 2000년 이후 ITS의 일환으로 버스 운행계획 최적화를 통한 운행관리와 정보제공 측면에서 그 중요성이 대두됨에 따라 과학적인 기반 하에 합리적인 버스운행계획 수립을 위한 연구가 더욱 활발히 진행되고 있는 추세이다. 본 연구에서는 버스운행계획 수립을 위해 구간 및 정류소 단위의 운행이력, 버스이용수요 등 세부자료를 활용하여 DTR 및 DTRC 모형에 따라 버스운행계획을 수립하였고 기점 및 정류소 단위의 timetable을 작성하였다. 모형 검증을 위해 서울시 472번 간선노선을 대상으로 BMS, 교통카드 등의 수집 자료를 활용하여 운행계획을 수립하고, 모형에 사용된 파라미터와 가정들에 대한 신뢰성 확보를 위하여 민감도 분석을 수행하였다.

• Preventive Nutrition and Food Science
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• 제19권3호
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• pp.164-169
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• 2014

The purpose of the present study was to investigate the short-term effects of a 12-day, soft pellet (SP) diet with a 3-h restricted feeding schedule on caloric intake, body weight, lipid metabolism, and insulin sensitivity. Glucose and insulin levels were measured pre-, mid-, and post-feeding. The SP rats exhibited postprandial hyperglycemia compared to rats fed control pellets (CP). The insulin response of SP rats during a meal was significantly higher than that of CP rats. There were no significant differences in the hepatic triacylglycerol contents and lipogenesis gene mRNA levels of SP and CP rats. However, the hepatocytes of SP rats were slightly hypertrophic. In addition, histological analysis revealed that the pancreases of SP rats had more islet areas than those of CP rats. This study demonstrated that feeding an SP-only diet for 12 days induces glucose intolerance, suggesting that the consumption of absorbable food, like a soft diet, may trigger glucose metabolism insufficiency and lead to life-threatening diseases.

• 한국지하수토양환경학회지:지하수토양환경
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• 제10권4호
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• pp.13-17
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• 2005

암모늄의 질산화 반응, 질소산화물의 탈질 반응, 그리고 유기물의 산화반응을 고려한 SAT 모델링 시스템에 대해서, 현장조건의 변화에 따른 모델 결과를 비교하기 위해 6가지 모델 조건에 대한 가상의 수직 2차원상 모델 시뮬레이션을 하였다. 시뮬레이션 조건에서 수리전도도, 주입수 주입율, 지표 피복 여부, 그리고 운영 계획과 같은 4가지 영향 인자들이 고려되었다. 시뮬레이션 결과, 모든 조건에서 모델 개발 과정에서 고려한 반응 영향들이 잘 모사되었다.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제21권1호
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• pp.129-138
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• 2010

본 논문에서는 우리나라 자궁경부암 조기검진 권고안을 바탕으로 검진주기 및 검진연령 변화에 따른 다양한 검진전략들의 효율성을 검토하고 비용-효과분석을 통하여 비용-효과적인 대안을 찾아 제시하고자 하였다. 한국중앙암등록본부의 2002년 자료와 확률모형을 이용하여 고려된 검진전략을 검진의 민감도와 무증상 상태에 있는 암 환자를 발견할 확률 및 검진비용을 추정하여 비용-효과분석을 시행하였다. 연구결과 비용-효과적인 측면에서 자궁경부세포검사를 이용한 35세부터 65세까지 3년 주기의 검진전략이 상대적으로 높은 효율성을 나타내었다.