• Title/Summary/Keyword: scenario planning

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Evaluation Method of Urban Development Location by APEI (Air Pollution Exposure Index) (대기오염 노출지표에 의한 도시개발 입지의 평가에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Ki-Bum;Kwon, Woo-Taeg;Kim, Hyung-Chul
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.267-275
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    • 2007
  • In this study, relationship between the air pollution of Siheung city and the relative contribution of automobiles to the city's pollution was evaluated for the first time. Then, new air pollution exposure index was developed through simulation. Using the newly developed index, two different urban development scenarios were compared to present a sustainable urban development plan to reduce air pollution from the land utilization point of view. According to the result of this simulation, air quality of the city was found to be affected significantly by human activities. More populated area showed worse level of air quality. Any development in the city resulted in more automobile activity and deterioration of air quality. This simulation result thus explains that a rapid increase of automobiles accompanied by the land development near local roadsides in the city is the major cause of air pollution in Siheung city. In this study, if urban activities are vigorous in an area with high air pollution, people are more likely to be exposed to air pollutant under the bad environmental conditions. On the other hand, if urban activities are less vigorous in an area with high pollution or if urban activities are vigorous in an area with less pollution, the environmental condition was positive. The APEI (Air Pollution Exposure Index) was developed based on these considerations. Scenarios 1 and 2 were compared and analyzed using APEI. In result, scenario 1 is the case in which land is developed and used in an environmentally favorable manner. From this study, it was proved that the impact of air pollution on human health can be minimized with proper land use. The result form the current study can be used as the basic information to solve problems from improper land utilization and air pollution (by road traffic). It also can be utilized to evaluate air pollution level according to land use and road characteristics and to help to choose the best location of land use to comply with the road function and status.

The study on the Diagnosis of SMEs Innovation Capability for the Value Innovation and Innovation Strategy -Focused on the Utilization of the VIQ(Value Innovation Quotient)- (중소기업의 가치혁신역량진단과 혁신전략 설정에 관한 연구 -가치혁신툴(VIQ)의 활용을 중심으로-)

  • Lee, Won-Il
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.1824-1831
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    • 2015
  • This study diagnosed the innovation capability of SMEs by utilizing the VIQ(Value Innovation Quotient) and deduced the innovation strategy. VIQ is the diagnosis tool for measuring the innovation capability of the SMEs focusing on the value innovation. SMEs can utilize this tool for diagnosis and deduce the innovation strategy. This study selected the high-growth venture company- K company and analyse it and deduced the innovation strategy. Innovation strategy can be as follows; Firstly, agile strategy formulation tool such as business intelligence and scenario planning should be adopted for the flexible business planning. Secondly, speedy decision making process should be made. Thirdly, open communication and empowerment process should be made. This paper can present the method of evaluating and diagnosis of value innovation capability of SMEs and innovation strategy formulation process.

An Analysis of TYLCV Damages under Regional Climate Changes (지역별 기후변화에 따른 토마토 황화잎말림병 피해 분석)

  • Yoon, Jiyoon;Kim, Soyoon;Kim, Kwansoo;Kim, Brian H.S.;An, Donghwan
    • Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.35-43
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    • 2015
  • The purpose of the research is to analyze damages of TYLCV (Tomato Yellow Leaf Curl Virus) in the context of climate changes and to find the spatial distribution of the damages and characteristics of regions. A TYLCV is generally known for a plant disease related to temperature. Its occurrence rate increases when temperature rises. This disease first occurred in 2008 and rapidly spread nationwide. Due to the spread of a TYLCV, a number of Tomato farms in Korea were damaged severely. To analyze damages of the pest in the context of climate changes, this research estimated production loss under the current situation and RCP scenarios. Additionally, Hot Spot Analysis, LISA, and Cluster analysis were conducted to find spatial distribution and properties of largely damaged regions under RCP scenarios. The results explained that additional production loss was estimated differently by regions with the same temperature rising scenario. Also, largely damaged regions are spatially clustered and factors causing large damages were different across regional cluster groups. It means that certain regions can be damaged more than others by diseases and pests. Furthermore, pest management policy should reflect the properties of each region such as climate conditions, cultivate environment and production technologies. The findings from this research can be utilized for developing rural management plans and pest protection policies.

Analysis of Standard Construction by TBM Diameter through the Rock Scenario Models in the Field (현장 암반 시나리오 모델을 통한 TBM 구경별 표준 공사기간 분석)

  • Park, Hong Taea;Lee, Yang Kyu
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.195-205
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    • 2013
  • Construction Management means a comprehensive plan of given the resources and the operation of the elements to complete the construction within the construction period. The construction period of these shall be determined by calculation based on reliable initial business. However, in actual field, inaccurate task duration is determined to the intuitive judgments of representative, reference of a similar project construction period of the past. As previous studies for the improvement of existing methods, This study presented a standard model that can be utilized in the early stages of construction projects for the TBM method operating by diameter (2.6m, 3.0m, 3.5m, 5.0m, 8.0m), and This study presented and calculated construction period which can estimated quickly the entire outline the construction period Therefore, When performing TBM construction work in the future, the total construction period which presented and analyze by TBM diameter, can be used as a useful material which plan and manage construction contracts, construction estimating, construction planning to the basic planning stage, and the basic design stage.

Evaluation of Reference Evapotranspiration in South Korea according to CMIP5 GCMs and Estimation Methods (CMIP5 GCMs과 추정 방법에 따른 우리나라 기준증발산량 평가)

  • Park, Jihoon;Cho, Jaepil;Lee, Eun-Jeong;Jung, Imgook
    • Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.153-168
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    • 2017
  • The main objective of this study was to assess reference evapotranspiration based on multiple GCMs (General Circulation Models) and estimation methods. In this study, 10 GCMs based on the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 4.5 scenario were used to estimate reference evapotranspiration. 54 ASOS (Automated Synoptic Observing System) data were constructed by statistical downscaling techniques. The meteorological variables of precipitation, maximum temperature and minimum temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation were produced using GCMs. For the past and future periods, we estimated reference evapotranspiration by GCMs and analyzed the statistical characteristics and analyzed its uncertainty. Five methods (BC: Blaney-Criddle, HS: Hargreaves-Samani, MK: Makkink, MS: Matt-Shuttleworth, and PM: Penman-Monteith) were selected to analyze the uncertainty by reference evapotranspiration estimation methods. We compared the uncertainty of reference evapotranspiration method by the variable expansion and analyzed which variables greatly influence reference evapotranspiration estimation. The posterior probabilities of five methods were estimated as BC: 0.1792, HS: 0.1775, MK: 0.2361, MS: 0.2054, and PM: 0.2018. The posterior probability indicated how well reference evapotranspiration estimated with 10 GCMs for five methods reflected the estimated reference evapotranspiration using the observed data. Through this study, we analyzed the overall characteristics of reference evapotranspiration according to GCMs and reference evapotranspiration estimation methods The results of this study might be used as a basic data for preparing the standard method of reference evapotranspiration to derive the water management method under climate change.

Accessing socio-economic and climate change impacts on surface water availability in Upper Indus Basin, Pakistan with using WEAP model.

  • Mehboob, Muhammad Shafqat;Kim, Yeonjoo
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2019.05a
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    • pp.407-407
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    • 2019
  • According to Asian Development Bank report Pakistan is among water scarce countries. Climate scenario on the basis IPCC fifth assessment report (AR5) revealed that annual mean temperature of Pakistan from year 2010-2019 was $17C^o$ which will rise up to $21C^o$ at the end of this century, similarly almost 10% decrease of annual rainfall is expected at the end of the century. It is a changing task in underdeveloped countries like Pakistan to meet the water demands of rapidly increasing population in a changing climate. While many studies have tackled scarcity and stream flow forecasting of the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) Pakistan, very few of them are related to socio-economic and climate change impact on sustainable water management of UIB. This study investigates the pattern of current and future surface water availability for various demand sites (e.g. domestic, agriculture and industrial) under different socio-economic and climate change scenarios in Upper Indus Basin (UIB) Pakistan for a period of 2010 to 2050. A state-of-the-art planning tool Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) is used to analyze the dynamics of current and future water demand. The stream flow data of five sub catchment (Astore, Gilgit, Hunza, Shigar and Shoyke) and entire UIB were calibrated and validated for the year of 2006 to 2011 using WEAP. The Nash Sutcliffe coefficient and coefficient of determination is achieved ranging from 0.63 to 0.92. The results indicate that unmet water demand is likely to increase severe threshold and the external driving forces e.g. socio-economic and climate change will create a gap between supply and demand of water.

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Assessment of Soil Erosion Loss by Using RUSLE and GIS in the Bagmati Basin of Nepal

  • Bastola, Shiksha;Seong, Yeon Jeong;Lee, Sang Hyup;Shin, Yongchul;Jung, Younghun
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.5-14
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    • 2019
  • This study attempted to study the soil erosion dynamic in the Bagmati Basin of Nepal. In this study, an inclusive methodology that combines Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) and GIS techniques was adopted to determine the distribution of soil loss in the study basin. As well, this study attempts to study the intensity of soil erosion in the seven different land use patterns in the Bagmati Basin. Soil loss is an associated phenomenon of hydrologic cycle and this dynamic phenomenon possesses threats to sustainability of basin hydrology, agriculture system, hydraulic structures in operation and overall ecosystem in a long run. Soil conservation works, and various planning and design of watersheds works demands quantification of soil loss. The results of the study in Bagmati Basin shows the total annual soil loss in the basin is 22.93 million tons with an average rate of 75.83T/ha/yr. The computed soil loss risk was divided into five classes from tolerable to severe and the spatial pattern was mapped for easy interpretation. Also, evaluation of soil loss in different land use categories shows barren area has highest rate of soil loss followed by agriculture area. This is a preliminary work and provides erosion risk scenario in the basin. The study can be further used for strategic planning of land use and hydrologic conservation works in a basin.

Control System of Simulation-based Government Level Exercise for Emergency Preparedness (시뮬레이션 기반 비상대비 정부연습의 통제체제에 관한 연구)

  • Joo, Choong-Geun;Jin, Jong-Lok;Byun, Hae-Yun;Youn, Sang-Youn
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.22 no.8
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    • pp.54-72
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    • 2022
  • This study is on the control system of simulation-based emergency preparedness 'government level exercise'(GOV-Ex), which provides main control elements required for each stage of planning, preparation, implementation, and follow-up measures and its operation concept. For this purpose, the control requirements of 'simulation-based government level exercise'(GOVSIM-Ex) was derived through the preceding studies on GOV-Ex and simulation exercise control in military exercise and disaster exercises and then the concept of operation was presented. The main contents are exercise planning and key event scenario, the linkage between simulation model and other models, the composition of the simulation control center and the organization's workstation(WS), DB, control and evaluation team etc. The study limited to the main control elements, not all the control elements required for the GOVSIM-Ex, and it has limitations that the specific implementation plan of some control elements proposed has not been presented. These are presented as a future research subject. The study will promote the development of the GOVSIM-Ex Control System and early settlement of GOSIMV-Ex in the future.

A Study on the Economical Efficiency of Mega Container Ship's Operation by Empirical Analysis : Primarily on Container Ship (실증분석을 통한 대형선의 운항 경제성에 관한 연구 -컨테이너선을 중심으로-)

  • Song Yong-Seok;Kim Hyun;Jung Seung-Ho;Nam Ki-Chan
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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    • 2004.11a
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    • pp.253-260
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    • 2004
  • In these days, 8000TEU container ship service launches in shipping service at latest based on the economy of scale, unit cast related with ship operation on ocean decreases in proportion to increase of ship scale and mega ship over 10,000TEU is on planning. This paper is analyzed the economic efficiency for reduction qf calling port in the operation cost, port chnrge, feeder cost, etc by an empirical analysis.

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A Study on the Development of App Ecosystem based Smart Home

  • Moon, Junsik;Park, Chan Young
    • Architectural research
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.13-20
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    • 2016
  • Smart Home has achieved remarkable developments over the past few decades. In the ICT(Information and Communications Technology) field, 'app ecosystem'-a collection of multiple devices such as mobile phones and tablets, software (operating system and development tools), companies (manufacturers, carriers, app-stores, etc.) and the process through which data is transferred/shared by a user from one device to another device or by the device itself-has come into wide use since the advent of the smart phone. Due to the synergy effect of the 'app ecosystem', it has been applied to various fields such as televisions and automobile industries. As a result, both the Smart TV and connected vehicle have developed their own ecosystem. Although much research has been conducted on these two ecosystems, there is a lack of research regarding 'App Ecosystem based Smart Home' (AESH). This research focuses on the building scenarios based on 'Tracking, Analyzing, Imaging, Deciding, and Acting (T.A.I.D.A), a future prediction method process. Rather than taking an approach from the perspective of providing and applying advanced technology for research on building future scenarios, this paper focuses on research from the perspective of architectural planning. As a result, two future scenarios of AESH are suggested.