• Title/Summary/Keyword: scenario planning

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Auto-segmentation of head and neck organs at risk in radiotherapy and its dependence on anatomic similarity

  • Ayyalusamy, Anantharaman;Vellaiyan, Subramani;Subramanian, Shanmuga;Ilamurugu, Arivarasan;Satpathy, Shyama;Nauman, Mohammed;Katta, Gowtham;Madineni, Aneesha
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.37 no.2
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    • pp.134-142
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    • 2019
  • Purpose: The aim is to study the dependence of deformable based auto-segmentation of head and neck organs-at-risks (OAR) on anatomy matching for a single atlas based system and generate an acceptable set of contours. Methods: A sample of ten patients in neutral neck position and three atlas sets consisting of ten patients each in different head and neck positions were utilized to generate three scenarios representing poor, average and perfect anatomy matching respectively and auto-segmentation was carried out for each scenario. Brainstem, larynx, mandible, cervical oesophagus, oral cavity, pharyngeal muscles, parotids, spinal cord, and trachea were the structures selected for the study. Automatic and oncologist reference contours were compared using the dice similarity index (DSI), Hausdroff distance and variation in the centre of mass (COM). Results: The mean DSI scores for brainstem was good irrespective of the anatomy matching scenarios. The scores for mandible, oral cavity, larynx, parotids, spinal cord, and trachea were unacceptable with poor matching but improved with enhanced bony matching whereas cervical oesophagus and pharyngeal muscles had less than acceptable scores for even perfect matching scenario. HD value and variation in COM decreased with better matching for all the structures. Conclusion: Improved anatomy matching resulted in better segmentation. At least a similar setup can help generate an acceptable set of automatic contours in systems employing single atlas method. Automatic contours from average matching scenario were acceptable for most structures. Importance should be given to head and neck position during atlas generation for a single atlas based system.

Loss Estimation in Southeast Korea from a Scenario Earthquake using the Deterministic Method in HAZUS

  • Kim, Kwang-Hee;Kang, Su-Young
    • 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2009.02b
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    • pp.43-50
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    • 2009
  • Strong ground motion attenuation relationship represents a comprehensive trend of ground shakings at sites with distances from the source, geology, local soil conditions, and others. It is necessary to develop an attenuation relationship with careful considerations of characteristics of the target area for reliable seismic hazard/risk assessments. In the study, observed ground motions from the January 2007 magnitude 4.9 Odaesan earthquake and the events occurring in the Gyeongsang provinces are compared with the previously proposed ground attenuation relationships in the Korean Peninsula to select most appropriate one. In the meantime, a few strong ground motion attenuation relationships are proposed and introduced in HAZUS, which have been designed for the Western United States and the Central and Eastern United States. The selected relationship from the ones for the Korean Peninsula has been compared with attenuation relationships available in HAZUS. Then, the attenuation relation for the Western United States proposed by Sadigh et al. (1997) for the Site Class B has been selected for this study. Reliability of the assessment will be improved by using an appropriate attenuation relation. It has been used for the earthquake loss estimation of the Gyeongju area located in southeast Korea using the deterministic method in HAZUS with a scenario earthquake (M=6.7). Our preliminary estimates show 15.6% damage of houses, shelter needs for about three thousands residents, and 75 life losses in the study area for the scenario events occurring at 2 A.M. Approximately 96% of hospitals will be in normal operation in 24 hours from the proposed event. Losses related to houses will be more than 114 million US dollars. Application of the improved methodology for loss estimation in Korea will help decision makers for planning disaster responses and hazard mitigation.

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Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Water in Nakdong-river Watershed (기후변화에 따른 낙동강 유역 농업용수 영향 분석)

  • Jee, Yong-Keun;Lee, Jin-Hee;Kim, Sang-Dan
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.54 no.3
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    • pp.149-157
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    • 2012
  • For the systemic management and planning of future agricultural water resources, deriving and analyzing the various results of climate change are necessary to respond the uncertainties of climate change. This study assessed the impact of climate change on the rainfall, temperature, and agricultural water requirement targeting in the Nakdong-river's basin periodically according to socioeconomic driving factors under the scenarios A1B, A2 and B1 of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) through the various IPCC GCMs. As a result of future rainfall change (2011~2100), increasing or decreasing tendency of rainfall change for future periods did not show a clear trend for three rainfall observatories, Daegu, Busan and Gumi. The characteristics of the temperature change consistently show a tendency to increase, and in the case of Daegu observatory, high temperature growth was shown. Especially, it was increased by 93.3 % in the period of future3 (2071~2100) for A2 scenario. According to the scenario and periodic analyses on the agricultural water demand, which was thought to be dependent on rainfall and temperature, the agricultural water demand increased at almost every period except during the Period Future1 (2011~2040) with different increase sizes, and the scenario-specific results were shown to be similar. As for areas, the agricultural water demand showed more changes in the sub-basin located by the branch of Nakdong-river than at the mainstream of the River.

Dose Assessment for Workers in Accidents (사고 대응 작업자 피폭선량 평가)

  • Jun Hyeok Kim;Sun Hong Yoon;Gil Yong Cha;Jin Hyoung Bai
    • Journal of Radiation Industry
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.265-273
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    • 2023
  • To effectively and safely manage the radiation exposure to nuclear power plant (NPP) workers in accidents, major overseas NPP operators such as the United States, Germany, and France have developed and applied realistic 3D model radiation dose assessment software for workers. Continuous research and development have recently been conducted, such as performing NPP accident management using 3D-VR based on As Low As Reasonably Achievable (ALARA) planning tool. In line with this global trend, it is also required to secure technology to manage radiation exposure of workers in Korea efficiently. Therefore, in this paper, it is described the application method and assessment results of radiation exposure scenarios for workers in response to accidents assessment technology, which is one of the fundamental technologies for constructing a realistic platform to be utilized for radiation exposure prediction, diagnosis, management, and training simulations following accidents. First, the post-accident sampling after the Loss of Coolant Accident(LOCA) was selected as the accident and response scenario, and the assessment area related to this work was established. Subsequently, the structures within the assessment area were modeled using MCNP, and the radiation source of the equipment was inputted. Based on this, the radiation dose distribution in the assessment area was assessed. Afterward, considering the three principles of external radiation protection (time, distance, and shielding) detailed work scenarios were developed by varying the number of workers, the presence or absence of a shield, and the location of the shield. The radiation exposure doses received by workers were compared and analyzed for each scenario, and based on the results, the optimal accident response scenario was derived. The results of this study plan to be utilized as a fundamental technology to ensure the safety of workers through simulations targeting various reactor types and accident response scenarios in the future. Furthermore, it is expected to secure the possibility of developing a data-based ALARA decision support system for predicting radiation exposure dose at NPP sites.

Analysis of Land Use Change Using RCP-Based Dyna-CLUE Model in the Hwangguji River Watershed (RCP 시나리오 기반 Dyna-CLUE 모형을 이용한 황구지천 유역의 토지이용변화 분석)

  • Kim, Jihye;Park, Jihoon;Song, Inhong;Song, Jung-Hun;Jun, Sang Min;Kang, Moon Seong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.33-49
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    • 2015
  • The objective of this study was to predict land use change based on the land use change scenarios for the Hwangguji river watershed, South Korea. The land use change scenario was derived from the representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The CLUE (conversion of land use and its effects) model was used to simulate the land use change. The CLUE is the modeling framework to simulate land use change considering empirically quantified relations between land use types and socioeconomic and biophysical driving factors through dynamical modeling. The Hwangguji river watershed, South Korea was selected as study area. Future land use changes in 2040, 2070, and 2100 were analyzed relative to baseline (2010) under the RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Binary logistic regressions were carried out to identify the relation between land uses and its driving factors. CN (Curve number) and impervious area based on the RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios were calculated and analyzed using the results of future land use changes. The land use change simulation of the RCP4.5 scenario resulted that the area of urban was forecast to increase by 12% and the area of forest was estimated to decrease by 16% between 2010 and 2100. The land use change simulation of the RCP8.5 scenario resulted that the area of urban was forecast to increase by 16% and the area of forest was estimated to decrease by 18% between 2010 and 2100. The values of Kappa and multiple resolution procedure were calculated as 0.61 and 74.03%. CN (III) and impervious area were increased by 0-1 and 0-8% from 2010 to 2100, respectively. The study findings may provide a useful tool for estimating the future land use change, which is an important factor for the future extreme flood.

Drone-based Vegetation Index Analysis Considering Vegetation Vitality (식생 활력도를 고려한 드론 기반의 식생지수 분석)

  • CHO, Sang-Ho;LEE, Geun-Sang;HWANG, Jee-Wook
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.21-35
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    • 2020
  • Vegetation information is a very important factor used in various fields such as urban planning, landscaping, water resources, and the environment. Vegetation varies according to canopy density or chlorophyll content, but vegetation vitality is not considered when classifying vegetation areas in previous studies. In this study, in order to satisfy various applied studies, a study was conducted to set a threshold value of vegetation index considering vegetation vitality. First, an eBee fixed-wing drone was equipped with a multi-spectral camera to construct optical and near-infrared orthomosaic images. Then, GIS calculation was performed for each orthomosaic image to calculate the NDVI, GNDVI, SAVI, and MSAVI vegetation index. In addition, the vegetation position of the target site was investigated through VRS survey, and the accuracy of each vegetation index was evaluated using vegetation vitality. As a result, the scenario in which the vegetation vitality point was selected as the vegetation area was higher in the classification accuracy of the vegetation index than the scenario in which the vegetation vitality point was slightly insufficient. In addition, the Kappa coefficient for each vegetation index calculated by overlapping with each site survey point was used to select the best threshold value of vegetation index for classifying vegetation by scenario. Therefore, the evaluation of vegetation index accuracy considering the vegetation vitality suggested in this study is expected to provide useful information for decision-making support in various business fields such as city planning in the future.

A Framework of Test Scenario Development for Issuance of Conditional Driver's Licenses for Elderly Drivers (고령 운전자 조건부 운전면허 발급을 위한 평가 시나리오 개발 프레임워크)

  • Sangsu Kim;Younshik Chung
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.134-145
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    • 2024
  • The purpose of this study was to propose a framework for developing test scenarios for issuance of conditional driver's licenses. The framework was composed of five stages. Initially, we reviewed the literature on traffic crash characteristics in terms of accident frequency and severity regarding the main factors of crashes caused by older drivers. In the second stage, the characteristics of crashes attributed to non-elderly, early elderly, and late elderly drivers were analyzed using data obtained from the Traffic Accident Analysis System (TAAS), and crash types for elderly drivers were derived. In the third stage, black box videos of high-risk crash types were analyzed to derive crash stories that described the circumstances in which crashes occurred. In the fourth step, crash situations were classified by rating the types of crash stories derived to develop various scenarios. Step 5 involved creating a scenario by applying the PEGASUS 5-Layer format, which has recently been used to develop test scenarios for autonomous vehicles. The results of this study are expected to be used as a basis for developing driving ability evaluation scenarios for the issuance of conditional driver's licenses.

An Investigation of Supporting North Korea Vocational Training by Interchange and Cooperation Scenarios (교류협력 단계별 북한 직업훈련 실행 시나리오 구축 방안)

  • Kim, So-young;Lee, Young-Min;Lee, Woo-Young
    • Journal of Practical Engineering Education
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.73-79
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to explore the supporting scenario to promote vocational training in North Korea in terms of cooperation level. To this end, we have embarked on a regional and industry based vocational training program by predicting the political and social situation of North Korea and staging three scenarios systematically. These scenarios were designed originally based on the Futures Group methodology. The first scenario is to establish a technical training center in one area, focusing on the electrical, electronics, and clothing sectors. The second scenario is to set up a pilot campus of vocational training college in one region by selecting the electric, electronic, and automobile industries as its main industries. The third scenario is to establish five vocational training college campuses in North Korea, focusing on electricity and electronics, IT manufacturing, telecommunications, heavy industry, and women-specialized industries. We suggested the followings: First, establishing goals and strategies for North Korean vocational training and establishing road maps. Second, the North Korean vocational training governance system needs to be established. Third, R & D infrastructure for vocational training needs to be established. Fourth, HRD and HRM system in North Korea vocational training field needs to be established. In addition, the role of public and private employment services centers to provide them should be strengthening.

An Algorithm for the Loading Planning of Air Express Cargoes (항공 특송화물 탑재계획을 위한 알고리즘)

  • Son, Dong-Hoon;Kim, Hwa-Joong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.39 no.3
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    • pp.56-63
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    • 2016
  • For air express service providers offering various express delivery services such as overnight delivery and next-business day delivery services, establishing quickly cargo loading plans is one of important issues owing to the characteristics of air express business, i.e., a short amount of time is available to complete all cargo loading operations before flight departure after receiving air express containers, pallets and bulks. On the other hand, one of major concerns in the air cargo loading planning is to make a plan that insures the stability of an aircraft to avoid take-off, flight, and landing accidents. To this end, this paper considers an air cargo loading planning problem, which is the problem of determining locations in the aircraft cargo space where air containers, pallets and bulks to be loaded while insuring the aircraft stability, motivated from DHL and Air Hong Kong. The objective of the problem is to maximize the total revenue gained from loading air express containers, pallets and bulks. To solve the problem, this paper suggests a simulated annealing algorithm to overcome impracticality of the integer programming model developed by a previous study requiring excessive computation time. The results of computational experiments show that the heuristic algorithm is a viable tool for establishing express cargo loading plans as giving robust and good solutions in a short amount of computation time. Scenario analyses are performed to investigate the effect of the current activities of air express carriers on the revenue change and to draw practical implications for air express service providers.

Future IPTV Service's Shift and Policy Issues in Convergence Environments (컨버전스 관점에서 미래 IPTV 서비스 변화와 정책이슈 전망)

  • Lee, Myung-Soon;Lee, Young-Hee;Kim, Moon-Sun
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.11 no.5
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    • pp.13-21
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    • 2013
  • IPTV Service, a convergence service of broadcasting, seems to have great potential as a nation's future growth driver for the 21st century. As IPTV service is future-oriented industry, adopting IPTV policy by freeing oneself from shortsighted policy and considering long-term strategy and rapidly changing convergence environment would be desirable. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to deduct future IPTV service under convergence environment by applying T.A.I.D.A, which is strategy planning tool effective for planning mid-long strategy, under uncertain environment among scenario method and offer new policy direction in order to realize future IPTV service.