• Title/Summary/Keyword: scenario planning

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Planning for Construction and Expanding of Distribution Substation Considering Contingency (상정사고를 고려한 배전용 변전소 신,증설 계획 수립)

  • Choi, Sang-Bong;Kim, Dae-Kyeong;Jeong, Seong-Hwan
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
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    • v.50 no.7
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    • pp.303-308
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    • 2001
  • This paper presents algorithm to plan construction and expanding of substation considering contingency accidents by proposing utilization factor according to configuration of substation bank system. In this paper, firstly, proper sphere of supply area by each district which could be standardized with respect to its supply capacity is established under assumption of long term load forecasting. Secondly, goal of utilization ratio based on configuration of substation bank was set to keep reliability by remaining sound bank when it happen to one bank accidents. Finally, it is set up for optimal construction and expanding of substation considering economy and reliability simultaneously about substation to exceed these ratio. To verify proposed algorithm, at first, after adopting a part of Kangnam area in Seoul as area for testing, it is divided into several regions for this area according to power branches of power utility. Secondly, by deriving correlation factor between load demand and economic indicators in these region respectively, the regional load forecasting was performed with economic growth and city plan scenario. Finally, based on the predicted load demand by region and land use data which is identified from air-photographic, the load demand by district was predicted. Also, planning for substation considering contingency is formulated to expand taking into account computing utilization factor which is based on configuration of substation bank respectively.

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Development of a potential evaluation method for urban expansion using GIS and RS technologies (GIS와 RS를 이용한 도시확산 포텐셜 평가기법의 개발)

  • Kim, Dae-Sik;Chung, Ha-Woo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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    • v.10 no.3 s.24
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    • pp.41-51
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    • 2004
  • This study aims to develop a potential evaluation method for urban spatial expansion using remote sensing (RS) and geographic information system (GIS). A multi-criteria evaluation method with several criteria and their weighting values was introduced to evaluate the score and quantification of the potential surface around the existing cities. The six criteria with one geographic factor, slope, and five accessibility factors, time distance from center of the city, national road, interchange of expressway, a big city, and station, were defined for the potential. RS techniques were applied for classification of the actual urban expansion maps between two periods, and GIS functions were used for score of accessibility criteria with a distance decay function from geographic, road and several point maps, which was developed in this study. The new methodology was applied to a test area, Suwon, between 1986 and 1996. In order to optimize the six weighting values, this study made new findings to search the optimal combination of the weighting values from new methodology, weighted scenario method for intensity order (WSM), combined with intensity order and AHP method, including a trial and error method for sensitivity analysis to make the intensity order. The optimal combination of the weighting values by the new method generated the optimal potential surface, considering spatial trend of urban expansion in the test area.

Multiobjective R&D Investment Planning under Uncertainty (불확실한 상황하에서의 다복적 R & D 투자계획수립에 관한 연구-최적화 기법과 계층화 분석과정의 통합접 접근방안을 중심으로-)

  • 이영찬;민재형
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.39-60
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    • 1995
  • In this paper, an integration of stochastic dynamic programming (SDP), integer goal programming (IGP) and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is proposed to handle multiobjective-multicriteria sequential decision making problems under uncertainty inherent in R & D investment planning. SDP has its capability to handle problems which are sequential and stochastic. In the SDP model, the probabilities of the funding levels in any time period are generated using a subjective model which employs functional relationships among interrelated parameters, scenarios of future budget availability and subjective inputs elicited from a group of decision makers. The SDP model primarily yields an optimal investment planning policy considering the possibility that actual funding received may be less than anticipated one and thus the projects being selected under the anticipated budget would be interrupted. IGP is used to handle the multiobjective issues such as tradoff between economic benefit and technology accumulation level. Other managerial concerns related to the determination of the optimal project portifolio within each stage of the SDP model. including project selection, project scheduling and annual budget allocation are also determined by the IGP. AHP is proposed for generating scenario-based transformation probabilities under budgetary uncertainty and for quantifying the environmental risk to be considered.

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Modelling of Image Acquisition Scenario and Verification of Mission Planning Algorithm for SAR Satellite (SAR위성의 영상획득 시나리오 모델링 및 임무설계 알고리즘 성능검증)

  • Shin, Hohyun;Kim, Jongpil
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.47 no.8
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    • pp.590-598
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    • 2019
  • Today, satellites are widely used in many fields like communication and image recoding. The image acquired by satellites contains variety information of wide region. Therefore, they are used for agriculture, resource exploitation and management, and military purpose. The satellite is required to acquire images effectively in a given time period. Because the period that satellites can acquire images is very restrictive. In this study, the modeling of processing time and attitude maneuvering for satellite image acquisition is performed. From this modeling, mission planning algorithm using heuristic evaluation function is suggested and performance of the proposed algorithm is verified by numerical simulation.

Multi-objective optimization of submerged floating tunnel route considering structural safety and total travel time

  • Eun Hak Lee;Gyu-Jin Kim
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.88 no.4
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    • pp.323-334
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    • 2023
  • The submerged floating tunnel (SFT) infrastructure has been regarded as an emerging technology that efficiently and safely connects land and islands. The SFT route problem is an essential part of the SFT planning and design phase, with significant impacts on the surrounding environment. This study aims to develop an optimization model considering transportation and structure factors. The SFT routing problem was optimized based on two objective functions, i.e., minimizing total travel time and cumulative strains, using NSGA-II. The proposed model was applied to the section from Mokpo to Jeju Island using road network and wave observation data. As a result of the proposed model, a Pareto optimum curve was obtained, showing a negative correlation between the total travel time and cumulative strain. Based on the inflection points on the Pareto optimum curve, four optimal SFT routes were selected and compared to identify the pros and cons. The travel time savings of the four selected alternatives were estimated to range from 9.9% to 10.5% compared to the non-implemented scenario. In terms of demand, there was a substantial shift in the number of travel and freight trips from airways to railways and roadways. Cumulative strain, calculated based on SFT distance, support structure, and wave energy, was found to be low when the route passed through small islands. The proposed model helps decision-making in the planning and design phases of SFT projects, ultimately contributing to the progress of a safe, efficient, and sustainable SFT infrastructure.

The Strategy for the Development of the Innopolis as a Global Innovation Cluster -Focused on the Scenario Planning of the Daedeok, Gwangju, Daegu Innopolis- (글로벌 혁신클러스터로서 연구개발특구 추진전략에 관한 연구 -대덕, 광주, 대구 연구개발특구의 연계 시나리오를 중심으로-)

  • Lee, Won-Il
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.13 no.11
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    • pp.5015-5024
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    • 2012
  • This research focused on the strategy formulation for the Innopolis as a Global Innovation Cluster. The study was performed based on both theoretical study and qualitative study approaches. Particularly, scenario planning as a foresight method was used for the strategy formulation. The major determinants for the success of the Innopolis can be summarized as follows; the enhancement of the host institution for the development of the innovation cluster, the relational capability of the Innopolis among daedeok, gwangju, daegu and the alignment and cooperation of the International Science & Business Belt. In terms of the needs of times, this study regarding the strategy for the formation of the Innopolis as the global innovation cluster is anticipated to be a good reference for policy makers and researchers in coming years.

A Study on the Administrative Spatial Informatization and Ubiquitous Smart City : Focus on Busan Centum City (유비쿼터스 스마트 도시와 행정공간정보화 연구 - 부산 센텀시티 중심으로 -)

  • Lee, Sang-Yun;Yoon, Hong-Joo
    • The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.351-364
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    • 2016
  • In recent years, our society, because of the arrival of a new paradigm according to the rapid changes in ICT has entered into future smart society and the ubiquitous era. So it can be a notable turning point in the city and administrative spatial informatization, aspects of the era change. Therefore, this study was to derive a desirable vision for the city of Busan Centum City Informatization in the dream of leading global smart city of Busan by applying 'scenario planning' as a foresight method. Soon this study derived a successful local informatization strategy for Centum City in Busan. It proposed the use of the administrative aspects of information with spatial informatization as metadata information. Also this study explored the future leadership strategy of Busan Centum City in smart society. Eventually in 2030 to around, In order to still remain Busan Centum City as a leading ICT smart city, this study suggested the following strategy. It is important to increase the satisfaction of citizen services through the use of the administrative aspects of information with spatial informatization as metadata information for urban information system.

Modeling water supply and demand under changing climate and socio-economic growth over Gilgit-Baltistan of Pakistan using WEAP

  • Mehboob, Muhammad Shafqat;Panda, Manas Ranjan;Kim, Yeonjoo
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2020.06a
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    • pp.116-116
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    • 2020
  • Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) is a highly mountainous and remote region covering 45% of Upper Indus Basin (UIB) with around 1.8 million population is vulnerable to climate change and socio-economic growth makes water resources management and planning more complex. To understand the water scarcity in the region this study is carried out to project water supply and demand for agricultural and domestic sector under various climate-socio-economic scenarios in five sub catchments of GB i.e., Astore, Gilgit, Hunza, Shigar and Shyok for a period of 2015 to 2050 using Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model. For climate change scenario ensembled mean of three global climate models (GCMs) was used under three different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5). The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and agricultural Land Development (LD) scenarios were combined with climate scenarios to develop climate-socio-economic scenario. Our results indicate that the climate change and socio-economic growth would create a gap between supply and demand of water in the region, with socio-economic growth (e.g. agricultural and population) as dominant external factor that would reduce food production and increase poverty level in the region. Among five catchments only Astore and Gilgit will face shortfall of water while Shyoke would face shortfall of water only under agricultural growth scenarios. We also observed that the shortfall of water in response to climate-socio-economic scenarios is totally different over two water deficient catchments due to its demography and geography. Finally, to help policy makers in developing regional water resources and management policies we classified five sub catchments of UIB according to its water deficiency level.

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Evaluation of Every Other Day - Cone Beam Computed Tomography in Image Guided Radiation Therapy for Prostate Cancer (전립선암의 영상유도방사선치료 시 격일 콘빔 CT 적용의 유용성 평가)

  • Park, Byoung Suk;Ahn, Jong Ho;Kim, Jong Sik;Song, Ki Won
    • The Journal of Korean Society for Radiation Therapy
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.289-295
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    • 2014
  • Purpose : Cone Beam Computed Tomography(CBCT) in Image Guided Radiation Therapy(IGRT), Set-up error can be reduced but exposure dose of the patient due to CBCT will increase. Through this study, we are to evaluate by making a scenario with the implementation period of CBCT as every other day. Materials and Methods : Of prostate cancer patients, 9 patients who got a Intensity Modulated Radiation Therapy(IMRT) with CBCT in IGRT were analyzed. Based on values corrected by analyzing set-up error by using CBCT every day during actual treatment, we created a scenario that conducts CBCT every other day. After applying set-up error values of the day not performing CBCT in the scenario to the treatment planning system(Pinnacle 9.2, Philips, USA) by moving them from the treatment iso-center during actual treatment, we established re-treatment plan under the same conditions as actual treatment. Based on this, the dose distribution of normal organs and Planning Target Volume(PTV) was compared and analyzed. Results : In the scenario that performs CBCT every other day based on set-up error values when conducting CBCT every day, average X-axis : $0.2{\pm}0.73mm$, Y-axis : $0.1{\pm}0.58mm$, Z-axis : $-1.3{\pm}1.17mm$ difference was shown. This was applied to the treatment planning to establish re-treatment plan and dose distribution was evaluated and as a result, Dmean : -0.17 Gy, D99% : -0.71 Gy of PTV difference was shown in comparison with the result obtained when carrying out CBCT every day. As for normal organs, V66 : 1.55% of rectal wall, V66 : -0.76% of bladder difference was shown. Conclusion : In case of a CBCT perform every other day could reduce exposure dose and additional treatment time. And it is thought to be able to consider the application depending on the condition of the patient because the difference in the dose distribution of normal organs, PTV is not large.

Economic Analysis of Rural Green-Village Planning with Solar Energy considering Climate Change (기후변화를 고려한 농촌지역 그린빌리지의 태양에너지 활용에 관한 경제성 분석)

  • Kim, Dae-Sik;Wang, Young-Doo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.25-36
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    • 2013
  • This study aims to perform the economic analysis to the use of solar power facilities in rural villages considering the climate change scenario. IPCC climate change scenarios in the recently adopted the RCP scenarios (RCP8.5, RCP6.5, RCP4.5, RCP2.6) was used. By RCP scenarios, solar radiation, depending on the scenario in 2100, respectively, 3.6%, 2.5%, 1.9%, 1.1% was assumed to increase. From the economic analysis(payback period is 25 year) on 8 points of each province, in all cases of normal data and four RCP scenarios, at all points analyzed were NPV indicate a negative, BC ratio less than 1.0, respectively. In the case of Mokpo, Chunnam RCP8.5, BC ratio were found to be up to a 0.92, followed by 0.89 in the case of RCP8.5 in Jinju, Kyungnam shows, while the minimum was in Jeju. BC ratio is 1.0 or bigger, in order for the normal solar radiation data in Mokpo, Chonnam was the minimum that it takes 37 years. Similarly, in the case of RCP scenarios, 30 years in Mokpo, Chonnam RCP8.5 and 31 years in the cases of Jinju, Kyungnam and Jeonju, Cheonbuk RCP8.5 were analyzed. It was analyzed that RCP8.5 has the highest value. BC analysis models for each of the factors, the results of the sensitivity analysis, the initial installation costs, electricity sales price, discount rate in the order of economy showed higher sensitivity, and the rest factors showed lower changes. Although there are some differences of solar radiation by region, but in Korea most facilities in rural areas, the use of solar power was considered to be economical enough, considering change of several factors with high sensitivity, such as increasing of government subsidies for the solar power installation of the facility, rising oil prices due to a rise in electricity sales price, and a change in discount rate. In particular, when considering climate change scenarios, the use of solar energy for rural areas of the judgment that there was more economical.