Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society (한국경영과학회지)

The Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society (한국경영과학회)
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Multiobjective R&D Investment Planning under Uncertainty

불확실한 상황하에서의 다복적 R & D 투자계획수립에 관한 연구-최적화 기법과 계층화 분석과정의 통합접 접근방안을 중심으로-

  • 이영찬 (서강대학교 경영학과 대학원) ;
  • 민재형 (서강대학교 경영학과)
  • Published : 1995.08.01
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Abstract

In this paper, an integration of stochastic dynamic programming (SDP), integer goal programming (IGP) and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is proposed to handle multiobjective-multicriteria sequential decision making problems under uncertainty inherent in R & D investment planning. SDP has its capability to handle problems which are sequential and stochastic. In the SDP model, the probabilities of the funding levels in any time period are generated using a subjective model which employs functional relationships among interrelated parameters, scenarios of future budget availability and subjective inputs elicited from a group of decision makers. The SDP model primarily yields an optimal investment planning policy considering the possibility that actual funding received may be less than anticipated one and thus the projects being selected under the anticipated budget would be interrupted. IGP is used to handle the multiobjective issues such as tradoff between economic benefit and technology accumulation level. Other managerial concerns related to the determination of the optimal project portifolio within each stage of the SDP model. including project selection, project scheduling and annual budget allocation are also determined by the IGP. AHP is proposed for generating scenario-based transformation probabilities under budgetary uncertainty and for quantifying the environmental risk to be considered.

Keywords

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