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Very short-term rainfall prediction based on radar image learning using deep neural network (심층신경망을 이용한 레이더 영상 학습 기반 초단시간 강우예측)

  • Yoon, Seongsim;Park, Heeseong;Shin, Hongjoon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.53 no.12
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    • pp.1159-1172
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    • 2020
  • This study applied deep convolution neural network based on U-Net and SegNet using long period weather radar data to very short-term rainfall prediction. And the results were compared and evaluated with the translation model. For training and validation of deep neural network, Mt. Gwanak and Mt. Gwangdeoksan radar data were collected from 2010 to 2016 and converted to a gray-scale image file in an HDF5 format with a 1km spatial resolution. The deep neural network model was trained to predict precipitation after 10 minutes by using the four consecutive radar image data, and the recursive method of repeating forecasts was applied to carry out lead time 60 minutes with the pretrained deep neural network model. To evaluate the performance of deep neural network prediction model, 24 rain cases in 2017 were forecast for rainfall up to 60 minutes in advance. As a result of evaluating the predicted performance by calculating the mean absolute error (MAE) and critical success index (CSI) at the threshold of 0.1, 1, and 5 mm/hr, the deep neural network model showed better performance in the case of rainfall threshold of 0.1, 1 mm/hr in terms of MAE, and showed better performance than the translation model for lead time 50 minutes in terms of CSI. In particular, although the deep neural network prediction model performed generally better than the translation model for weak rainfall of 5 mm/hr or less, the deep neural network prediction model had limitations in predicting distinct precipitation characteristics of high intensity as a result of the evaluation of threshold of 5 mm/hr. The longer lead time, the spatial smoothness increase with lead time thereby reducing the accuracy of rainfall prediction The translation model turned out to be superior in predicting the exceedance of higher intensity thresholds (> 5 mm/hr) because it preserves distinct precipitation characteristics, but the rainfall position tends to shift incorrectly. This study are expected to be helpful for the improvement of radar rainfall prediction model using deep neural networks in the future. In addition, the massive weather radar data established in this study will be provided through open repositories for future use in subsequent studies.

Study on the Multilevel Effects of Integrated Crisis Intervention Model for the Prevention of Elderly Suicide: Focusing on Suicidal Ideation and Depression (노인자살예방을 위한 통합적 위기개입모델 다층효과 연구: 자살생각·우울을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Eun Joo;Yook, Sung Pil
    • 한국노년학
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    • v.37 no.1
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    • pp.173-200
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    • 2017
  • This study is designed to verify the actual effect on the prevention of the elderly suicide of the integrated crisis intervention service which has been widely provided across all local communities in Gyeonggi-province focusing on the integrated crisis intervention model developed for the prevention of elderly suicide. The integrated crisis intervention model for the local communities and its manual were developed for the prevention of elderly suicide by integrating the crisis intervention theory which contains local community's integrated system approach and the stress vulnerability theory. For the analysis of the effect, the geriatric depression and suicidal ideation scale was adopted and the data was collected as follows; The data was collected from 258 people in the first preliminary test. Then, it was collected from the secondary test of 184 people after the integrated crisis intervention service was performed for 6 months. The third collection of data was made from 124 people after 2 or 3 years later using the backward tracing method. As for the analysis, the researcher used the R Statistics computing to conduct the test equating, and the vertical scaling between measuring points. Then, the researcher conducted descriptive statistics analysis and univariate analysis of variance, and performed multi-level modeling analysis using Bayesian estimation. As a result of the study, it was found out that the integrated crisis intervention model which has been developed for the elderly suicide prevention has a statistically significant effect on the reduction of elderly suicide in terms of elderly depression and suicide ideation in the follow-up measurement after the implementation of crisis intervention rather than in the first preliminary scores. The integrated crisis intervention model for the prevention of elderly suicide was found to be effective to the extent of 0.56 for the reduction of depression and 0.39 for the reduction of suicidal ideation. However, it was found out in the backward tracing test conducted 2-3 years after the first crisis intervention that the improved values returned to its original state, thus showing that the effect of the intervention is not maintained for long. Multilevel analysis was conducted to find out the factors such as the service type(professional counseling, medication, peer counseling), characteristics of the client (sex, age), the characteristics of the counselor(age, career, major) and the interaction between the characteristics of the counselor and intervention which affect depression and suicidal ideation. It was found that only medication can significantly reduce suicidal ideation and that if the counselor's major is counseling, it significantly further reduces suicidal ideation by interacting with professional counseling. Furthermore, as the characteristics of the suicide prevention experts are found to regulate the intervention effect on elderly suicide prevention in applying integrated crisis intervention model, the primary consideration should be given to the counseling ability of these experts.

Feasibility of Tax Increase in Korean Welfare State via Estimation of Optimal Tax burden Ratio (적정조세부담률 추정을 통한 한국 복지국가 증세가능성에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, SeongWook
    • 한국사회정책
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.77-115
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    • 2013
  • The purpose of this study is to present empirical evidence for discussion of financing social welfare via estimating optimal tax burden in the main member countries of the OECD by using Hausman-Taylor method considering endogeneity of explanatory variables. Also, the author produced an international tax comparison index reflecting theoretical hypotheses on revenue-expenditure nexus within a model to compare real tax burden by countries and to examine feasibility of tax increase in Korea. As a result of the analysis, the higher the level of tax burden was, the higher the level of welfare expenditure was, indicating the connection between high burden and high welfare from the aspect of scale. The results also indicated that the subject countries recently entered into the state of low tax burden. Meanwhile, Korea had maintained low burden until the late 1990s but the tax burden soared up since the financial crisis related to the IMF. However, due to the impact of foreign economy and the tax reduction policy, it reentered into the low-burden state after 2009. On the other hand, the degree of social welfare expenditure's reducing tax burden has been gradually enhanced since the crisis. In this context, the current optimal tax burden ratio of Korea as of 2010 may be 25.8%~26.5% of GDP based on input of welfare expenditure variables, a percent that Korea was investigated to be a 'high tax burden-low ITC' country whose tax increase of 0.7~1.4%p may be feasible and that the success of tax system reform for tax increase might be higher probability when compare to others. However, measures of increasing social security contributions and consumption tax were analyzed to be improper from the aspect of managing finance when compared to increase in other tax items, considering the relatively higher ITC. Tax increase is not necessarily required though there may be room for tax increase; the optimal tax burden ratio can be understood as the level that may be achieved on average when compared to other nations, not as the "proper" level. Thus, discussion of tax increase should be accompanied with comprehensive understanding of models of economic developmental difference from nations and institutional & historical attributes included in specific tax mix.

Installation Standards of Urban Deep Road Tunnel Fire Safety Facilities (도심부 대심도 터널의 방재시설 설치 기준에 관한 연구(부산 승학터널 사례를 중심으로))

  • Lee, Soobeom;Kim, JeongHyun;Kim, Jungsik;Kim, Dohoon;Lim, Joonbum
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.41 no.6
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    • pp.727-736
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    • 2021
  • Road tunnel lengths are increasing. Some 1,300 tunnels with 1,102 km in length had been increased till 2019 from 2010. There are 64 tunnels over 3,000 m in length, with their total length adding up to 276.7 km. Safety facilities in the event of a tunnel fire are critical so as to prevent large-scale casualties. Standards for installing disaster prevention facilities are being proposed based on the guidelines of the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, but they may be limited to deep underground tunnels. This study was undertaken to provide guidelines for the spacing of evacuation connection passages and the widths of evacuation connection doors. Evacuation with various spacing and widths was simulated in regards to evacuation time, which is the measure of safety, using the evacuation analysis simulation software EXODUS Ver.6.3 and the fire/smoke analysis software SMARTFIRE Ver.4.1. Evacuation connection gates with widths of 0.9 m and 1.2 m, and spacings of 150 m to 250 m, were set to every 20 m. In addition, longitudinal slopes of 6 % and 0 % were considered. It was determined to be safe when the evacuation completion time was shorter than the delay diffusion time. According to the simulation results, all occupants could complete evacuation before smoke spread regardless of the width of the evacuation connection door when the longitudinal slope was 6 % and the interval of evacuation connection passage was 150 m. When the evacuation connection passage spacing was 200 m and the evacuation connection gate width was 1.2 m, all occupants could evacuate when the longitudinal slope was 0 %. Due to difference in evacuation speed according to the longitudinal slope, the evacuation time with a 6 % slope was 114 seconds shorter (with the 190 m connection passage) than with a 0 % slope. A shorter spacing of evacuation connection passages may reduce the evacuation time, but this is difficult to implement in practice because of economic and structural limitations. If the width of the evacuation junction is 1.2 m, occupants could evacuate faster than with a 0.9 m width. When the width of a connection door is 1.2 m with appropriate connection passage spacing, it might provide a means to increase economic efficiency and resolve structural limitations while securing evacuation safety.

A Study on the Original Landscape for the Restoration and Maintenance of Buyongjeong and Juhamnu Areas in Changdeokgung Palace (창덕궁 부용정과 주합루 권역의 복원정비를 위한 원형 경관 고찰)

  • Oh, Jun-Young;Yang, Ki-Cheol
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Traditional Landscape Architecture
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    • v.39 no.4
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    • pp.24-37
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    • 2021
  • This study was conducted to newly examine the original landscape of Buyongjeong(芙蓉亭) and Juhamnu(宙合樓) areas in Changdeokgung Palace(昌德宮), focusing on the modern period including the Korean Empire, and to derive useful research results for restoration and maintenance in the future. The study results can be summarized as follows. First, the artificial island in Buyongji(芙蓉池) was originally made up of a straight layer using well-trimmed processed stone. However, during the maintenance work in the 1960s and 1970s, the artificial island in Buyongji was transformed into a mixture of natural and processed stones. The handrail installed on the upper part of the artificial island in Buyongji is a unique facility that is hard to find similar cases. The handrail existed even during the Korean Empire, but was completely destroyed during the Japanese colonial period. Second, Chwibyeong(翠屛), which is currently located on the left and right of Eosumun(魚水門), is the result of a reproduction based on Northern bamboo in 2008. Although there is a view that sees the plant material of Eosumun Chwibyeong as Rigid-branch yew, the specific species is still vague. Looking at the related data and circumstances from various angles, at least in the modern era, it is highly probable that the Eosumun Chwibyeong was made of Chinese juniper like Donggwanwangmyo Shrine(東關王廟) and Guncheongung(乾淸宮) in Gyeongbokgung Palace(景福宮). Third, the backyard of Juhamnu was a space with no dense trees on top of a stone staircase-shaped structure. The stone stairway in the backyard of Juhamnu was maintained in a relatively open form, and it also functioned as a space to pass through the surrounding buildings. However, as large-scale planting work was carried out in the late 1980s, the backyard of Juhamnu was maintained in the same shape as a Terraced Flower Bed, and it was transformed into a closed space where many flowering plants were planted. Fourth, Yeonghwadang Namhaenggak(暎花堂 南行閣), which had a library function like Gyujanggak(奎章閣) and Gaeyuwa(皆有窩), was destroyed in the late 1900s and was difficult to understand in its original form. Based on modern photographs and sketch materials, this study confirmed the arrangement axis of Yeonghwadang Namhaenggak, and confirmed the shape and design features of the building. In addition, an estimated restoration map referring to 「Donggwoldo(東闕圖)」 and 「Donggwoldohyung(東闕圓形)」 was presented for the construction of basic data.

Weekly Variation of Phytoplankton Communities in the Inner Bay of Yeong-do, Busan (부산 영도 내만에서 식물플랑크톤 군집의 주간 변동 특성)

  • YANG, WONSEOK;CHOI, DONG HAN;WON, JONGSEOK;KIM, JIHOON;HYUN, MYUNG JIN;LEE, HAEUN;LEE, YEONJUNG;NOH, JAE HOON
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.356-368
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    • 2021
  • To understand the temporal variation of phytoplankton communities in a coastal area, the biomass and diversity were weekly investigated in the inner bay of Yeong-do, Busan. In the study area, chlorophyll a concentration ranged from 0.43~7.58 mg m-3 during the study, indicating the study area was in mesotrophic or eutrophic status. The fractions of chlorophyll a occupied by large phytoplankton (> 3 ㎛ diameter) exhibited an average of 80% of total chlorophyll a in this study. Among the large phytoplankton, while Bacillariophyta was the most dominant in spring and summer, Cryptophyceae prevailed in the fall and winter. On the contrary, in the picophytoplankton community less than 3 ㎛ in diameter, Mamiellophyceae was the most dominant in most seasons, Cryptophyceae was relatively high with an average of 17.7 ± 17.6% throughout the year, but seasonal variations were large. Dinophyceae rarely occupied a higher fraction up to 60.4% of the picophytoplankton community. By weekly monitoring at a coastal station for 13 months, it is suggested that phytoplankton communities in coastal waters could be changed on a short time scale. If data are steadily accumulated at the time-series monitoring site for a long time, these will provide important data for understanding the long-term dynamics of phytoplankton as well as the impact of climate and environmental changes.

Analysis of Local Government Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) Ordinances and Preparation of Consultation Guidelinesfor EIA - A Case of Incheon Metropolitan City - (지방자치단체 환경영향평가 조례 현황 분석과 협의 지침서 작성 방안 - 인천광역시 사례를 중심으로 -)

  • Lee, Jongook;Cho, Kyeong Doo
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.226-240
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    • 2022
  • Local governments over a certain size in Republic of Korea may conduct Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) considering regional characteristics if it is necessary, in accordance with Article 42 of the 「Environmental Impact Assessment Act」. However, it was investigated that the number of local government EIA operation in many local governments was less than initial expectations. In order to improve it, the status of ordinances and consultation guidelines which are different for each local government need to be compared, and the institutional issues forthe relevant local governments must be found considering regional characteristics. Furthermore, detailed regulation and guidance on the local government EIA procedure should be included in the consultation guidelines and related information need to be provided. In this study, focusing on the case of Incheon Metropolitan City, the status of local government EIA ordinances in metropolitan cities and provinces with a similar condition was investigated, and the types and scope of target projects were compared and analyzed. In addition, consultation guidelines forIncheon Metropolitan City were written, and improvements on the procedure flow and overall schedule designation derived from the process were presented. In the case of Incheon Metropolitan City, there were no detailed information officially announced regarding the regulations of the local government EIA ordinance and follow-up management, so the administrative system of the local government needed to be reinforced in this field. Meanwhile, considering the status of local environment and geography, some target project types were deemed necessary to be added: port construction projects, water resource development projects, railroad construction projects, and military facilities installation projects. The results of this study will provide useful information to local governments which want to improve their operation effectiveness by reorganizing the local government EIA system and preparing specific guidelines.

Application of Environmental Friendly Bio-adsorbent based on a Plant Root for Copper Recovery Compared to the Synthetic Resin (구리 회수를 위한 식물뿌리 기반 친환경 바이오 흡착제의 적용 - 합성수지와의 비교)

  • Bawkar, Shilpa K.;Jha, Manis K.;Choubey, Pankaj K.;Parween, Rukshana;Panda, Rekha;Singh, Pramod K.;Lee, Jae-chun
    • Resources Recycling
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.56-65
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    • 2022
  • Copper is one of the non-ferrous metals used in the electrical/electronic manufacturing industries due to its superior properties particularly the high conductivity and less resistivity. The effluent generated from the surface finishing process of these industries contains higher copper content which gets discharged in to water bodies directly or indirectly. This causes severe environmental pollution and also results in loss of an important valuable metal. To overcome this issue, continuous R & D activities are going on across the globe in adsorption area with the purpose of finding an efficient, low cost and ecofriendly adsorbent. In view of the above, present investigation was made to compare the performance of a plant root (Datura root powder) as a bio-adsorbent to that of the synthetic one (Tulsion T-42) for copper adsorption from such effluent. Experiments were carried out in batch studies to optimize parameters such as adsorbent dose, contact time, pH, feed concentration, etc. Results of the batch experiments indicate that 0.2 g of Datura root powder and 0.1 g of Tulsion T-42 showed 95% copper adsorption from an initial feed/solution of 100 ppm Cu at pH 4 in contact time of 15 and 30 min, respectively. Adsorption data for both the adsorbents were fitted well to the Freundlich isotherm. Experimental results were also validated with the kinetic model, which showed that the adsorption of copper followed pseudo-second order rate expression for the both adsorbents. Overall result demonstrates that the bio-adsorbent tested has a potential applicability for metal recovery from the waste solutions/effluents of metal finishing units. In view of the requirements of commercial viability and minimal environmental damage there from, Datura root powder being an effective material for metal uptake, may prove to be a feasible adsorbent for copper recovery after the necessary scale-up studies.

Interpretation of Landscape Restoration and Maintenance in Changgyeonggung Palace through the Preservation Principles of Cultural Heritage (문화재 보존원칙으로 본 창경궁 조경 복원정비 양상 해석)

  • Kang, Jae-Ung;So, Hyun-Su
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Traditional Landscape Architecture
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    • v.40 no.4
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    • pp.15-31
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    • 2022
  • This study interpreted the logical validity of the landscape restoration and maintenance patterns of Changgyeonggung Palace, where modern landscapes coexist. The results of the study are as follows; First, the changes in the landscape restoration and maintenance attitude concerning the Changgyeonggung management organization were identified. With the establishment of the Office of the Imperial Garden, an imperial property was nationalized. The Cultural Heritage Managing Department was opened in 1961, and Changgyeonggung Palace were preserved as designated as historical sites in 1963. An environmental purification was implemented by the Changgyeonggung Office as a follow-up measure for restoration in 1983. As the Cultural Heritage Administration promoted in 1999 and the Royal Palaces and Tombs Center was established in 2019, the palace has been managed professionally as a palace landscape to provide a viewing environment. Second, In the 'Purification Period of Changgyeongwon(1954~1977)', environmental purification was carried out to restore amusement facilities, install facilities for cherry blossom viewing, and develop the place into a national zoo. In the 'Reconstruction Period of Changgyeonggung(1983~1986)', restoring function as an urban park, reserving green areas, the outside space was recreated in the traditional feel, and the forest area was generally maintained. In the 'Supplementation Period of Traditional Landscape Architecture Space(1987~2009)', a uniform green landscape was created with pine trees and various vegetation landscapes centered on the flower beds. In the 'Improvement and Maintenance Period of Viewing Environment(2010~2022), a master plan was reestablished on the premise of utilization, but maintenance has been carried out in a small scale centering on unit space. Third, regarding the validity of the landscape restoration and maintenance, It was found in terms of 'originality' that the recovery of the palace system has not been expanded for over 40 years in existing areas. The 'characteristics of the times', which shows whether multi-layered history was taken into account, Changgyeongwon was excluded from the discussion in the process of setting the base year twice. In terms of 'integrity,' the area of the Grand Greenhouse where the historic states coexists needs a maintenance policy that binds the greenhouse, carpet flower bed, and Chundangji Pond. The 'utility' identified as the utilization of spaces suggests the establishment of a sense of place in the Grand Greenhouse area, which is concentrated with programs different from other areas.

A Study on Risk Assessment Method for Earthquake-Induced Landslides (지진에 의한 산사태 위험도 평가방안에 관한 연구)

  • Seo, Junpyo;Eu, Song;Lee, Kihwan;Lee, Changwoo;Woo, Choongshik
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.694-709
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    • 2021
  • Purpose: In this study, earthquake-induced landslide risk assessment was conducted to provide basic data for efficient and preemptive damage prevention by selecting the erosion control work before the earthquake and the prediction and restoration priorities of the damaged area after the earthquake. Method: The study analyzed the previous studies abroad to examine the evaluation methodology and to derive the evaluation factors, and examine the utilization of the landslide hazard map currently used in Korea. In addition, the earthquake-induced landslide hazard map was also established on a pilot basis based on the fault zone and epicenter of Pohang using seismic attenuation. Result: The earthquake-induced landslide risk assessment study showed that China ranked 44%, Italy 16%, the U.S. 15%, Japan 10%, and Taiwan 8%. As for the evaluation method, the statistical model was the most common at 59%, and the physical model was found at 23%. The factors frequently used in the statistical model were altitude, distance from the fault, gradient, slope aspect, country rock, and topographic curvature. Since Korea's landslide hazard map reflects topography, geology, and forest floor conditions, it has been shown that it is reasonable to evaluate the risk of earthquake-induced landslides using it. As a result of evaluating the risk of landslides based on the fault zone and epicenter in the Pohang area, the risk grade was changed to reflect the impact of the earthquake. Conclusion: It is effective to use the landslide hazard map to evaluate the risk of earthquake-induced landslides at the regional scale. The risk map based on the fault zone is effective when used in the selection of a target site for preventive erosion control work to prevent damage from earthquake-induced landslides. In addition, the risk map based on the epicenter can be used for efficient follow-up management in order to prioritize damage prevention measures, such as to investigate the current status of landslide damage after an earthquake, or to restore the damaged area.