• Title/Summary/Keyword: root-mean-square error

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KOSPI index prediction using topic modeling and LSTM

  • Jin-Hyeon Joo;Geun-Duk Park
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.29 no.7
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    • pp.73-80
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    • 2024
  • In this paper, we proposes a method to improve the accuracy of predicting the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) by combining topic modeling and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks. In this paper, we use the Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) technique to extract ten major topics related to interest rate increases and decreases from financial news data. The extracted topics, along with historical KOSPI index data, are input into an LSTM model to predict the KOSPI index. The proposed model has the characteristic of predicting the KOSPI index by combining the time series prediction method by inputting the historical KOSPI index into the LSTM model and the topic modeling method by inputting news data. To verify the performance of the proposed model, this paper designs four models (LSTM_K model, LSTM_KNS model, LDA_K model, LDA_KNS model) based on the types of input data for the LSTM and presents the predictive performance of each model. The comparison of prediction performance results shows that the LSTM model (LDA_K model), which uses financial news topic data and historical KOSPI index data as inputs, recorded the lowest RMSE (Root Mean Square Error), demonstrating the best predictive performance.

Prediction of Agricultural Wind and Gust Using Local Ensemble Prediction System (국지앙상블시스템을 활용한 농경지 바람 및 강풍 예측)

  • Jung Hyuk Kang;Geon-Hu Kim;Kyu Rang Kim
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.115-125
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    • 2024
  • Wind is a meteorological factor that has a significant impact on agriculture. Gust cause damage such as fruit drop and damage to facilities. In this study, low-altitude wind speed prediction was performed by applying physical models to Local Ensemble Prediction System (LENS). Logarithmic Law (LOG) and Power Law (POW) were used as the physical models, and Korea Ministry of Environment indicators and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data were applied as indicator variables. We collected and verified wind and gust data at 3m altitude in 2022 operated by the Rural Development Administration, and presented the results in scatter plot, correlation coefficient, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Normalized Root Mean Square Error (NRMSE), and Threat Score (TS). The LOG-applied model showed better results in wind speed, and the POW-applied model showed better results in gust.

A hybrid inverse method for small scale parameter estimation of FG nanobeams

  • Darabi, A.;Vosoughi, Ali R.
    • Steel and Composite Structures
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    • v.20 no.5
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    • pp.1119-1131
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    • 2016
  • As a first attempt, an inverse hybrid numerical method for small scale parameter estimation of functionally graded (FG) nanobeams using measured frequencies is presented. The governing equations are obtained with the Eringen's nonlocal elasticity assumptions and the first-order shear deformation theory (FSDT). The equations are discretized by using the differential quadrature method (DQM). The discretized equations are transferred from temporal domain to frequency domain and frequencies of the nanobeam are obtained. By applying random error to these frequencies, measured frequencies are generated. The measured frequencies are considered as input data and inversely, the small scale parameter of the beam is obtained by minimizing a defined functional. The functional is defined as root mean square error between the measured frequencies and calculated frequencies by the DQM. Then, the conjugate gradient (CG) optimization method is employed to minimize the functional and the small scale parameter is obtained. Efficiency, convergence and accuracy of the presented hybrid method for small scale parameter estimation of the beams for different applied random error, boundary conditions, length-to-thickness ratio and volume fraction coefficients are demonstrated.

Estimation Method of the Best-Approximated Form Factor Using the Profile Measurement of the Aspherical Ophthalmic Lens (단면 형상 측정을 이용한 비구면 안경 렌즈의 최적 근사화된 설계 계수의 추정 방법)

  • Lee Hocheol
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Precision Engineering
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    • v.22 no.5 s.170
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    • pp.55-62
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    • 2005
  • This paper presents mainly a procedure to get the mathematical form of the manufactured aspherical lens. Generally Schulz formula describes the aspherical lens profile. Therefore, the base curvature, conic constant. and high-order polynomial coefficient should be set to get the approximated design equation. To find the best-approximated aspherical form, lens profile is measured by a commercial stylus profiler, which has a sub-micrometer measurement resolution. The optimization tool is based on the minimization of the root mean square of error sum to get the estimated aspherical surface equation from the scanned aspherical profile. Error minimization step uses the Nelder-Mead simplex (direct search) method. The result of the lens refractive power measurement shows the experimental consistency with the curvature distribution of the best-approximated aspherical surface equation

Ambient CO2 Measurement Using Raman Lidar (라만 라이다를 이용한 대기 중 이산화탄소 혼합비 측정)

  • Kim, Daewon;Lee, Hanlim;Park, Junsung;Choi, Wonei;Yang, Jiwon;Kang, Hyeongwoo
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.35 no.6_3
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    • pp.1187-1195
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    • 2019
  • We, for the first time, developed a Raman lidar system which can remotely detect surface CO2 volume mixing ratio (VMR). The Raman lidar system consists of the Nd: YAG laser of wavelength 355 nm with 80 mJ, an optical receiver, and detectors. Indoor CO2 cell measurements show that the accuracy of the Raman lidar system is calculated to be 99.89%. We carried out the field measurement using our Raman lidar at Pukyong National University over a seven-day period in October 2019. The results show good agreement between CO2 VMRs measured by the Raman lidar (CO2 Raman Lidar) and those measured by in situ instruments (CO2 In situ) which located 300 m and 350 m away from the Raman lidar system. The correlation coefficient (R), mean absolute error (MAE), and root mean square error (RMSE) between CO2 In situ and CO2 Raman Lidar are 0.67, 2.78 ppm, and 3.26 ppm, respectively.

Development of a Soil Moisture Estimation Model Using Artificial Neural Networks and Classification and Regression Tree(CART) (의사결정나무 분류와 인공신경망을 이용한 토양수분 산정모형 개발)

  • Kim, Gwangseob;Park, Jung-A
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.31 no.2B
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    • pp.155-163
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    • 2011
  • In this study, a soil moisture estimation model was developed using a decision tree model, an artificial neural networks (ANN) model, remotely sensed data, and ground network data of daily precipitation, soil moisture and surface temperature. Soil moisture data of the Yongdam dam basin (5 sites) were used for model validation. Satellite remote sensing data and geographical data and meteorological data were used in the classification and regression tree (CART) model for data classification and the ANNs model was applied for clustered data to estimate soil moisture. Soil moisture data of Jucheon, Bugui, Sangjeon, Ahncheon sites were used for training and the correlation coefficient between soil moisture estimates and observations was between 0.92 to 0.96, root mean square error was between 1.00 to 1.88%, and mean absolute error was between 0.75 to 1.45%. Cheoncheon2 site was used for validation. Test statistics showed that the correlation coefficient, the root mean square error, the mean absolute error were 0.91, 3.19%, and 2.72% respectively. Results demonstrated that the developed soil moisture model using CART and ANN was able to apply for the estimation of soil moisture distribution.

Deep Neural Network Based Prediction of Daily Spectators for Korean Baseball League : Focused on Gwangju-KIA Champions Field (Deep Neural Network 기반 프로야구 일일 관중 수 예측 : 광주-기아 챔피언스 필드를 중심으로)

  • Park, Dong Ju;Kim, Byeong Woo;Jeong, Young-Seon;Ahn, Chang Wook
    • Smart Media Journal
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.16-23
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    • 2018
  • In this paper, we used the Deep Neural Network (DNN) to predict the number of daily spectators of Gwangju - KIA Champions Field in order to provide marketing data for the team and related businesses and for managing the inventories of the facilities in the stadium. In this study, the DNN model, which is based on an artificial neural network (ANN), was used, and four kinds of DNN model were designed along with dropout and batch normalization model to prevent overfitting. Each of four models consists of 10 DNNs, and we added extra models with ensemble model. Each model was evaluated by Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The learning data from the model randomly selected 80% of the collected data from 2008 to 2017, and the other 20% were used as test data. With the result of 100 data selection, model configuration, and learning and prediction, we concluded that the predictive power of the DNN model with ensemble model is the best, and RMSE and MAPE are 15.17% and 14.34% higher, correspondingly, than the prediction value of the multiple linear regression model.

Machine Learning for Predicting Entrepreneurial Innovativeness (기계학습을 이용한 기업가적 혁신성 예측 모델에 관한 연구)

  • Chung, Doo Hee;Yun, Jin Seop;Yang, Sung Min
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.73-86
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    • 2021
  • The primary purpose of this paper is to explore the advanced models that predict entrepreneurial innovativeness most accurately. For the first time in the field of entrepreneurship research, it presents a model that predicts entrepreneurial innovativeness based on machine learning corresponding to data scientific approaches. It uses 22,099 the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) data from 62 countries to build predictive models. Based on the data set consisting of 27 explanatory variables, it builds predictive models that are traditional statistical methods such as multiple regression analysis and machine learning models such as regression tree, random forest, XG boost, and artificial neural networks. Then, it compares the performance of each model. It uses indicators such as root mean square error (RMSE), mean analysis error (MAE) and correlation to evaluate the performance of the model. The analysis of result is that all five machine learning models perform better than traditional methods, while the best predictive performance model was XG boost. In predicting it through XG boost, the variables with high contribution are entrepreneurial opportunities and cross-term variables of market expansion, which indicates that the type of entrepreneur who wants to acquire opportunities in new markets exhibits high innovativeness.

Spatial Gap-filling of GK-2A/AMI Hourly AOD Products Using Meteorological Data and Machine Learning (기상모델자료와 기계학습을 이용한 GK-2A/AMI Hourly AOD 산출물의 결측화소 복원)

  • Youn, Youjeong;Kang, Jonggu;Kim, Geunah;Park, Ganghyun;Choi, Soyeon;Lee, Yangwon
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.38 no.5_3
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    • pp.953-966
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    • 2022
  • Since aerosols adversely affect human health, such as deteriorating air quality, quantitative observation of the distribution and characteristics of aerosols is essential. Recently, satellite-based Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) data is used in various studies as periodic and quantitative information acquisition means on the global scale, but optical sensor-based satellite AOD images are missing in some areas with cloud conditions. In this study, we produced gap-free GeoKompsat 2A (GK-2A) Advanced Meteorological Imager (AMI) AOD hourly images after generating a Random Forest based gap-filling model using grid meteorological and geographic elements as input variables. The accuracy of the model is Mean Bias Error (MBE) of -0.002 and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 0.145, which is higher than the target accuracy of the original data and considering that the target object is an atmospheric variable with Correlation Coefficient (CC) of 0.714, it is a model with sufficient explanatory power. The high temporal resolution of geostationary satellites is suitable for diurnal variation observation and is an important model for other research such as input for atmospheric correction, estimation of ground PM, analysis of small fires or pollutants.

Pig Image Learning for Improving Weight Measurement Accuracy

  • Jonghee Lee;Seonwoo Park;Gipou Nam;Jinwook Jang;Sungho Lee
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.29 no.7
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    • pp.33-40
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    • 2024
  • The live weight of livestock is important information for managing their health and housing conditions, and it can be used to determine the optimal amount of feed and the timing of shipment. In general, it takes a lot of human resources and time to weigh livestock using a scale, and it is not easy to measure each stage of growth, which prevents effective breeding methods such as feeding amount control from being applied. In this paper, we aims to improve the accuracy of weight measurement of piglets, weaned pigs, nursery pigs, and fattening pigs by collecting, analyzing, learning, and predicting video and image data in animal husbandry and pig farming. For this purpose, we trained using Pytorch, YOLO(you only look once) 5 model, and Scikit Learn library and found that the actual and prediction graphs showed a similar flow with a of RMSE(root mean square error) 0.4%. and MAPE(mean absolute percentage error) 0.2%. It can be utilized in the mammalian pig, weaning pig, nursery pig, and fattening pig sections. The accuracy is expected to be continuously improved based on variously trained image and video data and actual measured weight data. It is expected that efficient breeding management will be possible by predicting the production of pigs by part through video reading in the future.