The problem of selection among competing models has been a fundamental issue in statistical data analysis. Good fits to data can be misleading since they can result from properties of the model that have nothing to do with it being a close approximation to the source distribution of interest (for example, overfitting). In this study we focus on the preference among models from a family of polynomial regressors. Three decades of research has spawned a number of plausible techniques for the selection of models, namely, Akaike's Finite Prediction Error (FPE) and Information Criterion (AIC), Schwartz's criterion (SCH), Generalized Cross Validation (GCV), Wallace's Minimum Message Length (MML), Minimum Description Length (MDL), and Vapnik's Structural Risk Minimization (SRM). The fundamental similarity between all these principles is their attempt to define an appropriate balance between the complexity of models and their ability to explain the data. This paper presents an empirical study of the above principles in the context of model selection, where the models under consideration are univariate polynomials. The paper includes a detailed empirical evaluation of the model selection methods on six target functions, with varying sample sizes and added Gaussian noise. The results from the study appear to provide strong evidence in support of the MML- and SRM- based methods over the other standard approaches (FPE, AIC, SCH and GCV).
Proceedings of the Korea Information Processing Society Conference
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2016.04a
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pp.215-217
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2016
With the popularity of smart device, mobile applications are playing more and more important role in people's daily life, these applications stores various information which greatly facilitate the user's daily life. However due to the frequent transmission of data in the network also increases the risk of data leakage, more and more developers began to focus on how to protect user data. Current mainstream development models include Native development, Web development and Hybrid development. Hybrid development is based on JavaScript and HTML5, it has a cross platform advantages similar to Web Apps and a good user experience similar to Native Apps. In this paper according to the features of Hybrid applications, we proposed a security scheme in Hybrid development model implements message-level data encryption to protect user information. And through the performance evaluation we found that in some scenario the proposed security scheme has a better performance.
In this study, we examined the influence of news frame and involvement on risk perception. Based on individuals' optimistic bias in risk judgement and the third-person effect theory, we developed research hypotheses. An experiment was conducted in which 243 undergraduate and graduate students participated. Results indicated that societal level risk judgements were relatively invariant across experimental conditions but personal level risk judgements were influenced by the news frame and individuals' involvement in irradiated food. Based on the results, we provide explanations concerning when and how optimistic bias takes place in each experimental condition.
The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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v.21
no.4
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pp.125-144
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2022
When a variable message signs (VMS) system displays false information related to traffic safety caused by malicious attacks, it could pose a serious risk to drivers. If the normal message patterns displayed on the VMS system are learned, it would be possible to detect and respond to the anomalous messages quickly. This paper proposes a method for detecting anomalous messages by learning the normal patterns of messages using a bi-directional generative pre-trained transformer (GPT) network. In particular, the proposed method was trained using the normal messages and their system parameters to minimize the corresponding negative log-likelihood (NLL) values. After adequate training, the proposed method could detect an anomalous message when its NLL value was larger than a pre-specified threshold value. The experiment results showed that the proposed method could detect malicious messages and cases when the system error occurs.
This study investigates the effect of information about risk on investment decision making. The model was constructed with two independent variables and two dependant variables. The first independent variable deals with whether information about risk is provided or not. The meaning of information about risk is the degree of uncertainty for investment decision making. The other independent variable involves attitude toward risk, such as the degree of tolerance for risk. Two dependant variables are concerned with the effect on investment decision making, such as the degree of riskiness of decision making and decision confidence, respectively. This study deals with the investment decision in options on stock indices. The findings of this study are as follows. The more the degree of tolerance for risk, the more the degree of decision confidence. This means that risk-taker has more desire for achievement than risk-avoider has. And the message alerting risk of investment decision making takes little effect on investment decision making.
With the recent, rapid changes in the socio-economic environment, organizations of today are now required to present a framework of realistic consumer behaviors based on psychology, economy, and finance, in order to understand their investing customers. Stock investors show differences in terms of their decisions or evaluations in the process of investing. This is due to what is called the 'framing effect.' The decision frames of the investors are defined differently, and, as a result, this affects the decisions made by the investors. Preceding studies on stock investment rarely touched the topic of the effect of message framing on market participants in their stock investment, especially regarding the differences in terms of their risk management behaviors based on the message framing in stock investment. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to examine the influence of stock investment message framing on market participants in their investment decision making and empirically validate whether this message framing effect has a moderating effect on the factors of investment satisfaction. For this, 494 participants with stock investment experiences were interviewed from May 1 to 26, 2018, and the results were used as the data for the empirical analysis. The analysis of the data was conducted using SPSS 22.0 statistical analysis software. The results of this study were as follows; First, of the stock investment behavioral factors, the stock comprehension, recommendation by others for a stock, and the degree of risks of a stock affected stock investment satisfaction in a positive manner. And, of the behavioral factors of stock investment, stock comprehension, stock brand, recommendation on the stocks from others, past performances, and risk levels of stocks affected the intent of continued stock investment in a positive manner. Second, message framing turned out to affect stock investment satisfaction in a positive manner, and it also had a significant moderating effect to the relationship between the stock investment behavior and stock investment satisfaction. Third, message framing was found to affect continued stock investment intent significantly, with a significant moderating effect in the relationship between stock investment behavioral factor and continued stock investment intent.
The purpose of this study is to explore the anti-smoking message effects and smoking status on smoking belief attributes. Based on the health behavior theories such as theory of reasoned action, health belief model, and social cognitive theory, three factors are selected to investigate the effects of anti-smoking campaign messages. The balance of benefits and barriers, self-efficacy, and social pressure are selected as independent variables. Three two-way ANOVA were conducted. Results showed that the main effect of social pressure were found with the social smoking attributes. Interaction effects were found on the nonsmoker-social pressure group and the non-smoker-two sided message group. It is found that nonsmokers accepted these two anti-smoking messages easily as compared to smoker groups. No main smoking status was found in this study; it is believed that smoking is a habitual that is not changed easily because attitude formation takes time. Results revealed that the two-sided message video releases and the social pressure video releases were favored by both smokers and nonsmokers. This study contributes the theoretical framework that can be transferred to the practices of anti-smoking campaign. Also, the researcher produced the televised stimuli which is not common in health message studies. By using the televised message material, the research tried to solve the validity problem which is common in experimental design.
Purpose - This article tackles risk communication issues and aims to address the characteristics of MERS risk information distribution in South Korea, and secondly to examine the communicative behavior of the public health authority in terms of the quality of communication strategies. Thirdly, the study attempts to figure out the risk communication to cope with MERS through the applications of SMCRE model in chronological order. We employ the social amplification of risk framework for analyzing the emergent public response as one of the main approaches. Research Design, Data and Methodology - The main framework of this study is theoretically based on the social amplification of risk, which describes signals about risk transmitted and processed by individuals and social groups. The model also reflects the interactions between social groups and institutes about disaster-related risk issues, which are potential amplifiers or attenuators of communication signals. S-M-C-R-E Model is methodologically employed to examine the social amplification for MERS risk information in each period, which we defined operationally. The proposed methodology allows the assessment of effectiveness and ineffectiveness on risk communication to be conceptualized as a countermeasure against disasters. The paper focuses on exploring how social risk amplification can be applied and organized in each stage. Results - The SMCRE model describes the exchange of risk information and is also applied to all forms of communication between stakeholders including public health authority, local government and media. Each factor of risk communication includes source, message, channel, receiver and effect. The results support that the effective risk communication involves not only the improved reliability of public health authority as a key factor of risk communication, but also a close cooperation and good collaboration with local governments. It does not seem to be possible that the government-initiated risk communication based on controllability and management cope effectively with infectious disease in early stage. The results of this study imply that the shared risks between local, regional and national authorities can enhance risk communication system. Conclusions - The study supports that the disparities in how disaster-related risk information is interpreted and coded, have made effective risk communication and public sense-making impeded. Our findings support a more communicative discussion about the role of risk information sharing between governments for the improvement of emergency management and underline the importance of social elements in the risk communication, such as relationship and trust building. Findings suggest that trust building between stakeholders could be added to help explain the processes of social amplification and attenuation of risk. It would be recommended that the continuous risk communication with all the involved stakeholders will be able to help national health promotion policy to be improved regarding emergency management. Furthermore, risk communication has to be a scientific approach for the communication pertaining to potentially sensitive or controversial situations with public concerns and low public trust.
Purpose - This article aims to explore the characteristics of disaster risk distribution information in China. Also, this research attempts to analyze the findings of risk communication using case study in chronological order in terms of social amplification of risk. To achieve the purpose, the paper reviews the trends and issues of risk communication in China, with an emphasis on examining earthquakes by a chronological approach. In these regards, we hope that some relevant findings from this empirical study with cases will be able to enhance national risk communication and provide implications in Korea as well. Research design, data, and methodology - The conceptual framework of this study is theoretically based on the risk amplification model, which describes signals about risk transmitted and processed by individuals and social groups. The social amplification of risk also reflects the interactions of social groups about disaster-related risk issues, which are potential amplifiers or attenuators of communication signals. The key concept of social amplification implies that the risks pertaining to natural disasters interact with social, psychological, institutional, and cultural processes in ways that can affect public perceptions of risk. SMCRE Model is methodologically employed to examine risk communication history of China with the focus on natural disaster. Four earthquakes are selected to figure out the chronological characteristics of risk communication since 1970s. He bei Tang Shan earthquake is selected as an example disaster before 1990's, while the earthquake in Yun Nan Jiang is explored for the case study of 1990's. The earthquake in Si Chuan Wen Chuan is also examined as a example disaster of 2000's. The recent earthquake in Si Chuan Ya An Lu Shan is selected as a case of 2010s. Results - SMCRE model in this case study is operationally defined as a methodology and applied to the four earthquakes occurred in China. SMCRE model describes the exchange of risk information and is also applied to all forms of communication between stake holders. Each factor of risk communication includes source, message, channel, receiver and effect. It is notable that a big progress has been made on disaster risk communication in China for the past 40 years. We also found that highly developed information technology has enabled Chinese society to better cope with natural disaster, leading to enhanced disaster risk communication. It is mainly found from case study that the disaster risk communication of China has been involved with political situation, which derived from the change of government for the past 40 years. Conclusion - From this historical research, it can be inferred that the policies and politics of Chinese leaders have had a more critical role to play in the process of source of risk communication than those of any other countries. The results of this paper also support that the effective risk communication involves not only the improved reliability of local government as a key factor of disaster risk communication, but also is accompanied by international cooperation for substantial collaboration with stake holders.
Journal of Korea Society of Digital Industry and Information Management
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v.8
no.3
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pp.147-156
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2012
Most people in our society use credit card instead of cash or check, so credit card is very important economic method. Credit card supposed to be safe, but hackers hack credit card for illegal deal. Also hackers make fake credit card and issue fake credit card to other people. In this thesis it will study and analyze damage case for safe credit card deal. It will use safe credit card system to insert variety of information and data of using pattern in artificial intelligence network, so print out the possibility of risk and monitor the risk of credit card user's deal pattern, so if one of user's pattern is different than normal pattern, it will pop up message in consultant's screen. This thesis will study and suggest way of prevent from illegal deal and user friendly credit card checking system.
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