• Title/Summary/Keyword: response prediction

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TASK TYPES AND ERROR TYPES INVOLVED IN THE HUMAN-RELATED UNPLANNED REACTOR TRIP EVENTS

  • Kim, Jaew-Han;Park, Jin-Kyun
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.40 no.7
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    • pp.615-624
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    • 2008
  • In this paper, the contribution of task types and error types involved in the human-related unplanned reactor trip events that have occurred between 1986 and 2006 in Korean nuclear power plants are analysed in order to establish a strategy for reducing the human-related unplanned reactor trips. Classification systems for the task types, error modes, and cognitive functions are developed or adopted from the currently available taxonomies, and the relevant information is extracted from the event reports or judged on the basis of an event description. According to the analyses from this study, the contributions of the task types are as follows: corrective maintenance (25.7%), planned maintenance (22.8%), planned operation (19.8%), periodic preventive maintenance (14.9%), response to a transient (9.9%), and design/manufacturing/installation (6.9%). According to the analysis of the error modes, error modes such as control failure (22.2%), wrong object (18.5%), omission (14.8%), wrong action (11.1 %), and inadequate (8.3%) take up about 75% of the total unplanned trip events. The analysis of the cognitive functions involved in the events indicated that the planning function had the highest contribution (46.7%) to the human actions leading to unplanned reactor trips. This analysis concludes that in order to significantly reduce human-induced or human-related unplanned reactor trips, an aide system (in support of maintenance personnel) for evaluating possible (negative) impacts of planned actions or erroneous actions as well as an appropriate human error prediction technique, should be developed.

The Development of an Instrument for the Measuring Cognitive Conflict Levels of Elementary Students Confronted with an Anomalous Situation in Science Learning (과학학습에서 불일치 상황에 대면한 초등학생의 인지갈등 측정 도구 개발)

  • 박상석;이경호;김정환;권혁구;권재술
    • Journal of Korean Elementary Science Education
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.21-33
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    • 1999
  • The purpose of this study was to develop an Instrument for the Measurement of Cognitive Conflict Levels of students who confronted with an anomalous situation in science teaming. Anomalous situation is generated when students' prediction is disconsistent with the observed fact. In this study, the researchers identified 4 components of cognitive conflict and developed three items for each component. The items were developed and revised by four pilot tests. In the first pilot test, 55 elementary school students participated in the test In the second pilot test, 88 students of the 5th and 6th grader participated in the test. The instrument of measuring cognitive conflict levels was given to the subjects right after demonstrating anomalous situation. For the demonstration, two different problem situations were developed: one was a pulley problem and the other was electric bulbs in parallel. Answered reasons for each items were analyzed to assess students' understanding on each items. In third pilot test, 125 elementary school students participated in the test. A factor analysis of the responses was carried out and reliability of the test was assessed by calculating internal consistency values. The items were finalized by three pilot tests. After 1 month after the third pilot test, researchers conducted the finalized test items to 323 students of the 5th and 6th grader. The final instrument showed moderate reliability (Cronbach-α 0.82∼0.87) and good content validity(0.93). A factor analysis of the response was carried out. 4 main factors completely coincided with 4 components that we supposed to be the conducts of cognitive conflict. The instrument can provide a means for both teachers and researchers to assess the cognitive conflict of a large number of students within a single class period. The results can be used by teachers to better understand the process of conceptual change of their students and to match instruction and materials accordingly.

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Prediction of Corn Yield based on Different Climate Scenarios using Aquacrop Model in Dangme East District of Ghana (Aquacrop 모형을 이용한 Ghana Dangme 동부지역 기후변화 시나리오 기반 옥수수 생산량 예측)

  • Twumasi, George Blay;Junaid, Ahmad Mirza;Shin, Yongchul;Choi, Kyung Sook
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.59 no.1
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    • pp.71-79
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    • 2017
  • Climate change phenomenon is posing a serious threat to sustainable corn production in Ghana. This study investigated the impacts of climate change on the rain-fed corn yield in the Dangme East district, Ghana by using Aquacrop model with a daily weather data set of 22-year from 1992 to 2013. Analysis of the weather data showed that the area is facing a warming trend as the numbers of years hotter and drier than the normal seemed to be increasing. Aquacrop model was assessed using the limited observed data to verify model's sufficiency, and showed credible results of $R^2$ and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE). In order to simulate the corn yield response to climate variability four climate change scenarios were designed by varying long-term average temperature in the range of ${\pm}1^{\circ}C{\sim}{\pm}3^{\circ}C$ and average annual rainfall to ${\pm}5%{\sim}{\pm}30%$, respectively. Generally, the corn yield was negatively correlated to temperature rise and rainfall reduction. Rainfall variations showed more prominent impacts on the corn yield than that of temperature variations. The reduction in average rainfall would instantly limit the crop growth rate and the corn yield irrespective of the temperature variations.

Modeling of Environmental Response for Concrete Durability

  • Yoon, In-Seok
    • Journal of the Korean Recycled Construction Resources Institute
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    • v.7 no.3
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    • pp.56-61
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    • 2012
  • The most common deterioration cause of concrete structures over the world is chloride ions attacks. Thus, service life modeling of concrete is a crucial issue in civil engineering society. Many studies on the durability of concrete have been accomplished, however, it is not easy to review literatures about environmental analysis. Since the durability of concrete depends on the properties of the surface concrete. micro-climatic condition which influences on surface concrete realistically should be considered. This study is devoted to analysis the micro-climatic condition of concrete structures, based on the in-situ monitoring of weather in marine environment. The effect of degree of saturation on chloride diffusivity of concrete is also examined. It is expected that the result of this work should be available for the prediction of chloride profile of marine concrete.

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Partial Confinement Utilization for Rectangular Concrete Columns Subjected to Biaxial Bending and Axial Compression

  • Abd El Fattah, Ahmed M.;Rasheed, Hayder A.;Al-Rahmani, Ahmed H.
    • International Journal of Concrete Structures and Materials
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.135-149
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    • 2017
  • The prediction of the actual ultimate capacity of confined concrete columns requires partial confinement utilization under eccentric loading. This is attributed to the reduction in compression zone compared to columns under pure axial compression. Modern codes and standards are introducing the need to perform extreme event analysis under static loads. There has been a number of studies that focused on the analysis and testing of concentric columns. On the other hand, the augmentation of compressive strength due to partial confinement has not been treated before. The higher eccentricity causes smaller confined concrete region in compression yielding smaller increase in strength of concrete. Accordingly, the ultimate eccentric confined strength is gradually reduced from the fully confined value $f_{cc}$ (at zero eccentricity) to the unconfined value $f^{\prime}_c$ (at infinite eccentricity) as a function of the ratio of compression area to total area of each eccentricity. This approach is used to implement an adaptive Mander model for analyzing eccentrically loaded columns. Generalization of the 3D moment of area approach is implemented based on proportional loading, fiber model and the secant stiffness approach, in an incremental-iterative numerical procedure to achieve the equilibrium path of $P-{\varepsilon}$ and $M-{\varphi}$ response up to failure. This numerical analysis is adapted to assess the confining effect in rectangular columns confined with conventional lateral steel. This analysis is validated against experimental data found in the literature showing good correlation to the partial confinement model while rendering the full confinement treatment unsafe.

Theoretical Prediction of Vertical Motion of Planing Monohull in Regular Head Waves - Improvement of Zarnick's Nonlinear Strip Method (선수 규칙파 중 단동 활주선의 연직면 거동 추정 - Zarnick 비선형 스트립 방법의 개선)

  • Zhang, Yang;Yum, Deuk-Joon;Kim, Dong-Jin
    • Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.217-223
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    • 2015
  • In order to predict the motions of a planing hull in waves, it is necessary to accurately estimate the force components acting on the hull such as the hydrodynamic force, buoyancy, and friction, as well as the wave exciting force. In particular, based on strip theory, hydrodynamic forces can be estimated by the summation of the forces acting on each cross-section of the hull. A non-linear strip method for planing hulls was mathematically developed by Zarnick, and his formula has been used to predict the vertical motions of prismatic planing hulls in regular waves. In this study, several improvements were added to Zarnick's formula to predict the vertical motions of warped planing hulls. Based on calm water model test results, the buoyancy force and moment correction coefficients were modified. Further improvements were made in the pile-up correction. Pile-up correction factors were changed according to variations of the deadrise angles using the results found in previous research. Using the same hull form, captive model tests were carried out in other recent research, and the results were compared with the present calculation results. The comparison showed reasonably good agreements between the model tests and present calculations.

Adjustment of Creep Coefficient Using Sensitivity Analysis (민감도 해석을 통한 크리프 계수 오차 보정)

  • Park, Jong-Bum;Park, Bong-Sik;Chang, Sung-Pil
    • Proceedings of the Korea Concrete Institute Conference
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    • 2008.04a
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    • pp.293-296
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    • 2008
  • Creep and shrinkage in concrete structures are very complex phenomena in which various uncertainties exist with regard to inherent material variations as well as modeling uncertainties. The creep and shrinkage models which are capable of predicting long-term structural response are specified in design codes such as ACI 209-92, CEB-FIP Model Code 90, etc. However, in the prediction formulas of creep and shrinkage effects of concrete, various kinds of parameters are involved to express the characteristics of concrete under consideration (i.e. the proportion of concrete, the shape of the structure, relative humidity, etc.). And the predicted values from each design code under same environment differ from each other. To predict the characteristics of concrete, the long-term experiments of creep and shrinkage is necessary but this is not suitable for a construction field. In this study, adjustment method of creep coefficient using sensitivity analysis is proposed to predict creep coefficient of concrete exactly and it is checked up on the validity of the predicting method by comparing to the assumed value and predicted one.

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Development of Lifecycle Model for Copyright Infringement Site (저작권 침해 사이트 생애 주기 모델 개발)

  • Kim, Deuk-Hun;Jeong, Hae-Seon;Kwak, Jin
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information Security & Cryptology
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.101-121
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    • 2020
  • Technology and culture are converging with various industries to create added value of contents. In addition, the country is creating a foundation environment for grafting new technologies onto the cultural content. However, copyright infringement by voice demand and supply is continuously occurring for cultural contents with copyright, and more and more recently, there have been increasing cases of creating and operating sites with servers overseas to bypass monitoring on infringement sites. To prevent this, various copyright protection studies are under way in many areas, but the current detection and prevention technologies are largely reactive and therefore have problems of effectiveness. Accordingly, this paper proposes a model of the lifecycle of copyright infringement site to lay the foundation for preemptive response to the distribution of illegal copies through analysis of the lifecycle of copyright infringement site.

Adaptive OFDM with Channel Predictor in Broadband Wireless Mobile Communications (광대역 무선 이동 통신에서 채널 예측기를 갖는 적응 OFDM)

  • 황태진;황호선;백흥기
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.29 no.4A
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    • pp.370-377
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    • 2004
  • In this paper, we present an adaptive modulation technique for orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) for broadband wireless communications. Also, using improved channel prediction, we enhance the performance of adaptive OFDM in high mobility environments. Adaptive modulation technique has been shown to achieve reliable high-rate data transmission over frequency-selective fading channel when OFDM is employed. This scheme requires the accurate channel information between two stations for a better performance. In an outdoor high mobility environment, most of adaptive OFDM systems have to be given the channel information transmitted from the receiver. Even if it is possible, there is some delay. Moreover, the channel impulse response between two stations is very rapidly varied. If the channel information is obsolete at the time of transmission, then poor system performance will result. In order to solve this problem, we propose adaptive OFDM with improved channel predictor. The proposed bit allocation algorithm has a lower complexity and the proposed scheme mitigates the effect of channel delay. Robust approach is less sensitive to outdated channel information. Performance results show that the proposed scheme can achieve considerable performance enhancement.

A Study on Prediction of Mass SQL Injection Worm Propagation Using The Markov Chain (마코브 체인을 이용한 Mass SQL Injection 웜 확산 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Won-Hyung;Kim, Young-Jin;Lee, Dong-Hwi;Kim, Kui-Nam J.
    • Convergence Security Journal
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    • v.8 no.4
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    • pp.173-181
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    • 2008
  • Recently, Worm epidemic models have been developed in response to the cyber threats posed by worms in order to analyze their propagation and predict their spread. Some of the most important ones involve mathematical model techniques such as Epidemic(SI), KM (Kermack-MeKendrick), Two-Factor and AAWP(Analytical Active Worm Propagation). However, most models have several inherent limitations. For instance, they target worms that employ random scanning in the network such as CodeRed worm and it was able to be applied to the specified threats. Therefore, we propose the probabilistic of worm propagation based on the Markov Chain, which can be applied to cyber threats such as Mass SQL Injection worm. Using the proposed method in this paper, we can predict the occurrence probability and occurrence frequency for each threats in the entire system.

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