• 제목/요약/키워드: reliability theory

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Bayesian reliability estimation of bivariate Marshal-Olkin exponential stress-strength model

  • Chandra, N.;Pandey, M.
    • International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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    • 제13권1호
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    • pp.37-47
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    • 2012
  • In this article we attempted reliability analysis of a component under the stress-strength pattern with both classical as well as Bayesian techniques. The main focus is made to develop the theory for dealing the reliability problems in various circumstances for bivariate environmental set up in context of Bayesian paradigm. A stress-strength based model describes the life of a component which has strength (Y) and is subjected to stress(X). We develop the Bayes and moment estimators of reliability of a component for each of the three possible conditions, under the assumption that the two stresses (i.e. $X_1$ and $X_2$) on a component are dependent and follow a Bivariate exponential (BVE) of Marshall-Olkin distribution, the strength of a component (Y) following exponential distribution is independent of the stresses. The simulation study is performed with Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique via Gibbs sampler to obtain the estimates of Bayes estimators of reliability, are compared with moment estimators of reliabilities on the basis of absolute biases.

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정전비용을 고려한 배전계통 설비의 투자 계획 수립 방안연구 (Study on a Scheme of Investment Considering Customer Interruption Cost in Power Distribution System)

  • 추철민;김재철;이희태;문종필
    • 한국조명전기설비학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국조명전기설비학회 2006년도 춘계학술대회 논문집
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    • pp.365-369
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    • 2006
  • It is concentrated on a methodology to establish a scheme of investment on power distribution systems of components. This paper provides a methodology to estimate the scheme as using a customer interruption cost regarding reliability indices in power distribution systems. The proposed method basically uses the failure rate depending on time for explaining the deterioration of a component. Therefore, the theory of the sensitivity is used for deciding the precedence of the investment to consider an effect of each component's failure rate on the system reliability. After Estimating the sensitivity on component investment cost making incremental reliability level is produced by component's investment cost accumulated according to the precedence of the sensitivity. After that, the failure rate corresponding with reliability level on the curve of investment cost is used as producing the curve of customer interruption cost. Two curves have the crossing point that is proposed to acceptable reliability level for customer and utility. In this paper, the acceptable reliability level for customer with the utility is assessed to analyze customer interruption cost and sensitivity of reliability indices. In conclusion the result of investment based on this method is shown to the reliability level with two cost.

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Experimental and analytical studies on stochastic seismic response control of structures with MR dampers

  • Mei, Zhen;Peng, Yongbo;Li, Jie
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • 제5권4호
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    • pp.395-416
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    • 2013
  • The magneto-rheological (MR) damper contributes to the new technology of structural vibration control. Its developments and applications have been paid significant attentions in earthquake engineering in recent years. Due to the shortages, however, inherent in deterministic control schemes where only several observed seismic accelerations are used as the trivial input and in classical stochastic optimal control theory with assumption of white noise process, the derived control policy cannot effectively accommodate the performance of randomly base-excited engineering structures. In this paper, the experimental and analytical studies on stochastic seismic response control of structures with specifically designed MR dampers are carried out. The random ground motion, as the base excitation posing upon the shaking table and the design load used for structural control system, is represented by the physically based stochastic ground motion model. Stochastic response analysis and reliability assessment of the tested structure are performed using the probability density evolution method and the theory of extreme value distribution. It is shown that the seismic response of the controlled structure with MR dampers gain a significant reduction compared with that of the uncontrolled structure, and the structural reliability is obviously strengthened as well.

SARS 환자간호 의도예측 도구의 타당도 및 신뢰도 검증 연구 (Validity and Reliability of an Instrument for Predictive Nursing Intention for SARS Patient Care)

  • 유혜라;권보은;장연수;윤현경
    • 대한간호학회지
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    • 제35권6호
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    • pp.1063-1071
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    • 2005
  • Purpose: This study was done to develop and test validity and reliability of on instrument for predicting nursing intention for SARS patient care. Method: The psychometric properties of a SARS patient care attrition prediction tool, based on the Theory of Planned Behavior, were examined in this study. The Three-phase design involved a) salient beliefs generated from clinical nurses (n=43) b) content validation by expert panel evaluations(n=5) c) face validation by plot testing (n=10) d) and instrument validation in a cross sectional survey (n=299). Psychometric analysis of survey data provided empirical evidence of the construct validity and reliability of the instrument. Result: Principal component analysis verified the hypothesized 6-factor solution, explaining $68.2\%$ of variance, and Alpha coefficients of .7538 to .9389 indicated a high internal consistency of the instrument. Conclusion: The instrument can be used by nurse administrators and researcher to assess clinical nurses' salient beliefs about caring for SARS patients, guide tailored intervention strategies to effective caring, and evaluate the effectiveness of interventions.

한국어판 알츠하이머병 지식 측정도구의 신뢰도와 타당도 (Psychometric Properties of the Alzheimer's Disease Knowledge Scale-Korean Version)

  • 김은주;정지영
    • 대한간호학회지
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    • 제45권1호
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    • pp.107-117
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    • 2015
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the psychometric properties of the Korean version of the Alzheimer's Disease Knowledge Scale (ADKS-K) to determine its applicability to Korean adults. Methods: Cross-cultural validity was performed according to Consensus-based Standards for the Selection of Health Measurement Instruments (COSMIN). The Kuder-Richardson Formula 20 for internal consistency and Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC) for test-retest reliability were conducted. Content validity, criterion related validity and construct validity were evaluated. The Classical Test Theory (CTT) model and the Item Response Theory (IRT) model were applied in performing the item analysis. Results: The KR 20 was .71, and the ICC was .90, indicating that the ADKS-K has internal consistency and stability reliability. Thirty items of the ADKS-K had significant Content Validity Ratio (CVR) values, i.e., mean of 0.82 and range of 0.60~1.00. Mean item difficulty and discrimination indices calculated by TestAn program were 0.63 and 0.23, respectively. Mean item difficulty and discrimination indices calculated by BayesiAn program were -0.60 and 0.77, respectively. These tests indicate that ADKS-K has an acceptable level of difficulty and discriminating efficiency. Conclusion: Results suggest that ADKS-K has the potential to be a proper instrument for assessing AD knowledge in Korean adults.

증명 동료평가의 신뢰도 및 타당도 분석: 대학 정수론 수업의 사례를 중심으로 (The Reliability and Validity of Online Peer Assessment on Proofs in a Number Theory Course)

  • 오예린;권오남;박주용
    • 한국수학교육학회지시리즈A:수학교육
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    • 제57권3호
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    • pp.215-229
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    • 2018
  • Despite the importance of learning to do mathematical proofs, researchers have reported that not only secondary school students but also undergraduate students have difficulties in learning proofs. In this study, we introduced a new toll for learning proofs and explored the reliability and the validity of peer assessment on proofs. In the course of a university in Seoul, students were given weekly proof assignments prior to class. After solving the proofs, each student had to assess other students' proofs. The inter-rater reliabilities of weekly peer assessment was higher than .9 over 90 percent of the observed cases. To examine the validity of peer assessment, we check whether students' assessments were similar to expert assessment. Analysis showed that the equivalence has been quite high throughout the semester and the validity was low in the middle of the semester but rose by the end of the semester. Based on these results, we believe instructors can consider the application of peer assessment on proving tasks as a tool to help students learn.

애매성을 고려한 퍼지이론을 이용한 송전망확충계획에 관한 연구 (Consideration of Ambiguties on Transmission System Expansion Planning using Fuzzy Set Theory)

  • 트란트룽틴;김형철;최재석
    • 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한전기학회 2004년도 추계학술대회 논문집 전력기술부문
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    • pp.261-265
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    • 2004
  • This paper proposes a fuzzy dual method for analyzing long-term transmission system expansion planning problem considering ambiguities of the power system using fuzzy lineal programming. Transmission expansion planning problem can be formulated integer programming or linear programming with minimization total cost subject to reliability (load balance). A long-term expansion planning problem of a grid is very complex, which have uncertainties fur budget, reliability criteria and construction time. Too much computation time is asked for actual system. Fuzzy set theory can be used efficiently in order to consider ambiguity of the investment budget (economics) for constructing the new transmission lines and the delivery marginal rate (reliability criteria) of the system in this paper. This paper presents formulation of fuzzy dual method as first step for developing a fuzzy Ford-Fulkerson algorithm in future and demonstrates sample study. In application study, firstly, a case study using fuzzy integer programming with branch and bound method is presented for practical system. Secondly, the other case study with crisp Ford Fulkerson is presented.

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Reliability-based assessment of high-speed railway subgrade defect

  • Feng, Qingsong;Sun, Kui;Chen, Hua-peng
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • 제77권2호
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    • pp.231-243
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    • 2021
  • In this paper, a dynamic response mapping model of the wheel-rail system is established by using the support vector regression (SVR) method, and the hierarchical safety thresholds of the subgrade void are proposed based on the reliability theory. Firstly, the vehicle-track coupling dynamic model considering the subgrade void is constructed. Secondly, the subgrade void area, the subgrade compaction index K30 and the fastener stiffness are selected as random variables, and the mapping model between these three random parameters and the dynamic response of the wheel-rail system is built by using the orthogonal test and the SVR. The sensitivity analysis is carried out by the range analysis method. Finally, the hierarchical safety thresholds for the subgrade void are proposed. The results show that the subgrade void has the most significant influence on the carbody vertical acceleration, the rail vertical displacement, the vertical displacement and the slab tensile stress. From the range analysis, the subgrade void area has the largest effect on the dynamic response of the wheel-rail system, followed by the fastener stiffness and the subgrade compaction index K30. The recommended safety thresholds for the subgrade void of level I, II and III are 4.01㎡, 6.81㎡ and 9.79㎡, respectively.

한국부부간 공평성 인지척도 개발에 관한연구 (A Study on the Development of the Scale for Measuring Perception of Equity in Marital Relationship)

  • 박정희
    • 가정과삶의질연구
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    • 제16권2호
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    • pp.107-122
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    • 1998
  • It has been suggested that equity theory a social psychological theory concerned with the fairness in casual relationships should be applicable to marital relationships. This study describes the development of the scale for measuring perception of equity which measure the level of equity in marital relationships among Korean couples. PES(Perception of Equity Scale) is composed of two subscales; detailed measure of equity(DME) and global measure of equity(GME). The PES which include items from two areas of concern for intimates-pschological-emotional concern day-to-day concern-are describes. As results of test reliability of areas of DME range from .86 to .88 and reliability of GME is .92. And there are primarily evidences of construct validity of PES. Therefore PES is very reasonable scale to measure of equity/inequity perception in married couples. Finally analyzing of the level of equity in this sample husbands and wives has generally equitable relationships with their partn rs. Another findings suggest that husbands are overbenefited of their patners through marriage whereas wives are not.

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On the Conditional Tolerance Probability in Time Series Models

  • Lee, Sang-Yeol
    • Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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    • 제26권3호
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    • pp.407-416
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    • 1997
  • Suppose that { $X_{i}$ } is a stationary AR(1) process and { $Y_{j}$ } is an ARX process with { $X_{i}$ } as exogeneous variables. Let $Y_{j}$ $^{*}$ be the stochastic process which is the sum of $Y_{j}$ and a nonstochastic trend. In this paper we consider the problem of estimating the conditional probability that $Y_{{n+1}}$$^{*}$ is bigger than $X_{{n+1}}$, given $X_{1}$, $Y_{1}$$^{*}$,..., $X_{n}$ , $Y_{n}$ $^{*}$. As an estimator for the tolerance probability, an Mann-Whitney statistic based on least squares residuars is suggested. It is shown that the deviations between the estimator and true probability are stochatically bounded with $n^{{-1}$2}/ order. The result may be applied to the stress-strength reliability theory when the stress and strength variables violate the classical iid assumption.umption.n.

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