• Title/Summary/Keyword: reliability sensitivity

Search Result 730, Processing Time 0.03 seconds

Failure Probability Estimation of Steam Generator Tube Containing Axial Through-Wall Crack (축방향 관통균열이 존재하는 증기발생기 세관의 파손확률 예측)

  • Moon Seong In;Lee Sang Min;Bae Sung Ryul;Chang Yoon Suk;Hwang Seong Sik;Kim Joung Soo;Kim Young Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Precision Engineering
    • /
    • v.22 no.10 s.175
    • /
    • pp.137-143
    • /
    • 2005
  • The integrity of steam generator tubes in nuclear power plant should be maintained sufficiently during operation. For sake of this, complicated assessment procedures are required such as fracture mechanics analysis, etc. The integrity assessment of tubes has been performed by using conventional deterministic approaches while there are many uncertainties to carry out a rational evaluation. In this respect, probabilistic integrity assessment is considered as an alternative method for integrity assessment. The objectives of this study are to develop an integrity assessment system based on probabilistic fracture mechanics and to predict the failure probability of steam generator tubes containing an axial through-wall crack. The developed integrity assessment system consists of three evaluation modules, which apply first order reliability method, second order reliability method and Monte Carlo simulation method, respectively. The system has been applied to predict failure probability of steam generator tubes and the estimation results showed a promising applicability of the probabilistic integrity assessment system.

Evaluation of Fracture Detection Function for the Concrete by Self-Diagnosis CPGFRP (자기진단 CPGFRP의 파괴예측기능 평가를 위한 콘크리트 적용실험)

  • 최현수;박진섭;정민수;강병희
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
    • /
    • 2003.05a
    • /
    • pp.27-31
    • /
    • 2003
  • To maintain serviceability of concrete structure more than proper it is necessary not only predict service life through periodical monitor but also need monitoring system to recognize optimal time and method for repair. Recently, CPGFRP, replacing some GFRP with CF, is developed and used for monitoring concrete fraction. But dramatic resistance change of CPGFRP is showed below 0.5% strain and it is not small strain in terms of monitoring micro crack in concrete. In other word, monitoring with CF is not suitable in low stress but hight stress. In this study, we accessed applicable possibility and reliability of CPGFRP composite as monitoring sense that is proved very sensitive to stress through domestic and oversea previous study. CPGFRP composite plays a role in specimen like steel and increases flexural strength. CPGFRP composite shows resistance increasement in micro crack. In particular, CPGFRP is more sensitive than strangage in low stress. Resistance change ratio curve is very similar to strain curve so sensitivity and reliability is very excellent to monitor concrete fracture.

  • PDF

Bayesian Estimation based K-1 Gas-Mask Shelf Life Assessment using CSRP Test Data (CSRP 시험데이터를 사용한 베이시안 추정모델 기반 K-1 방독면 저장수명 분석)

  • Kim, Jong-Hwan;Jung, Chi-jung;Kim, Hyunjung
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology
    • /
    • v.21 no.1
    • /
    • pp.124-132
    • /
    • 2018
  • This paper presents a shelf life assessment for K-1 military gas masks in the Republic of Korea using test data of Chemical Materiels Stockpile Reliability Program(CSRP). For the shelf life assessment, over 2,500 samples between 2006 and 2015 were collected from field tests and analyzed to estimate a probability of proper and improper functionality using Bayesian estimation. For this, three stages were considered; a pre-processing, a processing and an assessment. In the pre-processing, major components which directly influence the shelf life of the mask were statistically analyzed and selected by applying principal component analysis from all test components. In the processing, with the major components chosen in the previous stage, both proper and improper probability of gas masks were computed by applying Bayesian estimation. In the assessment, the probability model of the mask shelf life was analyzed with respect to storage periods between 0 and 29 years resulting in between 66.1 % and 100 % performances in accuracy, sensitivity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value.

Optimal Long-term Transmission Planning Algorithm using Non-linear Branch-and-bound Method (비선형 분산안전법을 이용한 최적장기송전계률 알고리)

  • 박영문;신중린
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
    • /
    • v.37 no.5
    • /
    • pp.272-281
    • /
    • 1988
  • The problem of optimal transmission system planning is to find the most economical locations and time of transmission line construction under the various constraints such as available rights-of-way, finances, the technical characteristics of power system, and the reliability criterion of power supply, and so on. In this paper the constraint of right-of-way is represented as a finite set of available rights-of-way. And the constructed for a unit period. The electrical constraints are represented in terms of line overload and steady state stability margin. And the reliability criterion is dealt with the suppression of failure cost and with single-contingency analysis. In general, the transmission planning problem requires integer solutions and its objective function is nonlinear. In this paper the objective function is defined as a sum of the present values of construction cost and the minimum operating cost of power system. The latter is represented as a sum of generation cost and failure cost considering the change of yearly load, economic dispatch, and the line contingency. For the calculation of operating cost linear programming is adopted on the base of DC load flow calculation, and for the optimization of main objective function nonlinear Branch-and-Bound algorithm is used. Finally, for improving the efficiency of B & B algorithm a new sensitivity analysis algorithm is proposed.

Study of Smart Vehicle Seat for Real-time Driver Posture Monitoring (운전자 자세 실시간 모니터링이 가능한 스마트 자동차 시트 연구)

  • Shim, Kwangmin;Seo, Jung Hwan
    • Journal of Auto-vehicle Safety Association
    • /
    • v.12 no.1
    • /
    • pp.52-61
    • /
    • 2020
  • In recent years, the increasing interest in health-care requires the industrial products to be well-designed ergonomically. In the commercial vehicle industry, several researchers have demonstrated the driver's posture has great effect on the orthopedic desease such as fatigue, back pain, scoliosis, and so on. However, the existing sensor systems developed for measuring the driver posture in real time have suffered from inaccuracy and low reliability issues. Here, we suggest our smart vehicle seat system capable of real-time driver posture monitoring by using the air bag sensor package with high sensitivity and reliability. The ergonomic numerical model which can evaluate a driver's posture has been developed on the basis of the human body segmentation method followed by simulation-based validation. Our experimental analysis of obtained pressure distribution of a vehicle seat under the different driver's postures revealed our smart vehicle system successfully achieved the driver's real-time posture data in great agreement with our numerical model.

Structural Design Optimization on the Reduced System Constructed from Large-Scaled Problem (축소시스템과 영역분할 기법과의 연동을 통한 대형구조물 설계 기법 연구)

  • Kim, Hyun-Gi;Cho, Maeng-Hyo
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
    • /
    • v.30 no.9 s.252
    • /
    • pp.1070-1077
    • /
    • 2006
  • In the present study, sizing and shape optimizations are performed based on the reduced system of large-scaled problem. In the analysis part to achieve efficiency and reliability of computation, two-level condensation scheme is applied. In the construction of reduced system of large scaled problems, it is much more efficient to use sub-domain method. Thus, in the present paper, two-level reduction method combined with sub-domain method is employed. Once the reduced system is constructed, it is straightforward to obtain design sensitivities from the analysis results of the reduced system We use semi-analytic method to obtain design sensitivities. Performance of the efficiency and reliability of the present reduction method in the structural optimization problem is demonstrated through the numerical examples. The present framework of reduction method should serve as a fast and reliable design tool in analysis and design of large-scaled dynamic problems.

Monte Carlo analysis of the induced cracked zone by single-hole rock explosion

  • Shadabfar, Mahdi;Huang, Hongwei;Wang, Yuan;Wu, Chenglong
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
    • /
    • v.21 no.3
    • /
    • pp.289-300
    • /
    • 2020
  • Estimating the damage induced by an explosion around a blast hole has always been a challenging issue in geotechnical engineering. It is difficult to determine an exact dimension for damage zone since many parameters are involved in the formation of failures, and there are some uncertainties lying in these parameters. Thus, the present study adopted a probabilistic approach towards this problem. First, a reliability model of the problem was established and the failure probability of induced damage was calculated. Then, the corresponding exceedance risk curve was developed indicating the relation between the failure probability and the cracked zone radius. The obtained risk curve indicated that the failure probability drops dramatically by increasing the cracked zone radius so that the probability of exceedance for any crack length greater than 4.5 m is less than 5%. Moreover, the effect of each parameter involved in the probability of failure, including blast hole radius, explosive density, detonation velocity, and tensile strength of the rock, was evaluated by using a sensitivity analysis. Finally, the impact of the decoupling ratio on the reduction of failures was investigated and the location of its maximum influence was demonstrated around the blast point.

Evaluation of soil spatial variability by micro-structure simulation

  • Fei, Suozhu;Tan, Xiaohui;Wang, Xue;Du, Linfeng;Sun, Zhihao
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
    • /
    • v.17 no.6
    • /
    • pp.565-572
    • /
    • 2019
  • Spatial variability is an inherent characteristic of soil, and auto-correlation length (ACL) is a very important parameter in the reliability or probabilistic analyses of geotechnical engineering that consider the spatial variability of soils. Current methods for estimating the ACL need a large amount of laboratory or in-situ experiments, which is a great obstacle to the application of random field theory to geotechnical reliability analysis and design. To estimate the ACL reasonably and efficiently, we propose a micro-structure based numerical simulation method. The quartet structure generation set algorithm is used to generate stochastic numerical micro-structure of soils, and scanning electron microscope test of soil samples combined with digital image processing technique is adopted to obtain parameters needed in the QSGS algorithm. Then, 2-point correlation function is adopted to calculate the ACL based on the generated numerical micro-structure of soils. Results of a case study shows that the ACL can be estimated efficiently using the proposed method. Sensitivity analysis demonstrates that the ACL will become stable with the increase of mesh density and model size. A model size of $300{\times}300$ with a grid size of $1{\times}1$ is suitable for the calculation of the ACL of clayey soils.

Development of a Science Ethicality Test for Elementary School Students (초등학생들의 과학윤리성을 측정하기 위한 검사도구 개발)

  • Kim, Seongdeok;Kim, Hyonam
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
    • /
    • v.36 no.1
    • /
    • pp.1-13
    • /
    • 2016
  • The purpose of this study is to develop a Science Ethicality Test (SET) to measure students' science ethics. To secure the validity and reliability of the SET, the authors have applied Rest's Four Components Model (FCM). To develop the SET, authors have conducted the following procedures: analysis of the Korean Youth Moral Test (Kim & Lee, 2012), alteration of the KYMT; and development of the SET. Rest's FCM is consisted of moral sensitivity, moral judgment, moral motivation, and moral character. The SET is consisted of ethical sensitivity, ethical judgment, ethical motivation, and ethical character with each factor having its own elements. To secure the validity and reliability of SET, authors requested a validity assessment from five experts (two evaluators are science education experts, two others are ethics education experts, and one evaluator is a scientist), and surveyed 599 elementary school students. As a result, SET proved high levels of validity and reliability.

Development of Dual-task Based Cognitive Function Screening Test for the Elderly (이중과제를 활용한 노인인지기능 선별검사 개발)

  • Kwak, Ho-Soung;Yoo, Eun-Young;Park, Hae Yean;Lee, Seo-Hyun;Han, Dae-Sung;Park, Ji-Hyuk
    • Therapeutic Science for Rehabilitation
    • /
    • v.9 no.4
    • /
    • pp.69-81
    • /
    • 2020
  • Objective : The purpose of this study was to develop a Yonsei dual task cognitive screening test (Y-DuCog) for the elderly. Methods : The reliability and validity test of Y-DuCog (Yonsei Dual Task Cognitive Screening Test) was developed by 229 elderly people aged over 60 years from community organizations at Gyeonggi-do and Chungcheong-do from May 2019 to August 2019. In addition, the criteria for classifying elderly with cognitive impairment were presented. Results : The correlation analysis between MMSE-K, MoCA-K and Y-DuCog were a correlation between the DTE and CRR of Y-DuCog. As a result of internal consistency, Cronbach's-α values of DTE and CRR showed .848 (p<.01) and .916 (p<.01), respectively. The test-retest reliability was high. The screening point showed 88.7% sensitivity and 83.5% specificity at 31.76 seconds in total DTE, and 84.5% sensitivity and 76.6% specificity at 0.38 in total dual-task CRR. Conclusion : This study verified the reliability and validity of Y-DuCog. It was found that the level of education was not a barrier to the undertaking of this test. Furthermore, the test could be performed easily and quickly. It is also expected to be used to evaluate the effectiveness of cognitive function assessment and intervention methods in the elderly.