Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology (한국군사과학기술학회지)

The Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology (한국군사과학기술학회)
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Bayesian Estimation based K-1 Gas-Mask Shelf Life Assessment using CSRP Test Data

CSRP 시험데이터를 사용한 베이시안 추정모델 기반 K-1 방독면 저장수명 분석

  • Kim, Jong-Hwan (Department of Mechanical & Systems Engineering, Korea Military Academy) ;
  • Jung, Chi-jung (Department of Mechanical & Systems Engineering, Korea Military Academy) ;
  • Kim, Hyunjung (Defense Agency for Technology and Quality)
  • 김종환 (육군사관학교 기계.시스템공학과) ;
  • 정치정 (육군사관학교 기계.시스템공학과) ;
  • 김현정 (국방기술품질원 신뢰성시험센터)
  • Received : 2017.08.03
  • Accepted : 2017.12.08
  • Published : 2018.02.01
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Abstract

This paper presents a shelf life assessment for K-1 military gas masks in the Republic of Korea using test data of Chemical Materiels Stockpile Reliability Program(CSRP). For the shelf life assessment, over 2,500 samples between 2006 and 2015 were collected from field tests and analyzed to estimate a probability of proper and improper functionality using Bayesian estimation. For this, three stages were considered; a pre-processing, a processing and an assessment. In the pre-processing, major components which directly influence the shelf life of the mask were statistically analyzed and selected by applying principal component analysis from all test components. In the processing, with the major components chosen in the previous stage, both proper and improper probability of gas masks were computed by applying Bayesian estimation. In the assessment, the probability model of the mask shelf life was analyzed with respect to storage periods between 0 and 29 years resulting in between 66.1 % and 100 % performances in accuracy, sensitivity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value.

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