• Title/Summary/Keyword: regression to the mean

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Prediction of stress intensity factor range for API 5L grade X65 steel by using GPR and MPMR

  • Murthy, A. Ramachandra;Vishnuvardhan, S.;Saravanan, M.;Gandhi, P.
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.81 no.5
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    • pp.565-574
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    • 2022
  • The infrastructures such as offshore, bridges, power plant, oil and gas piping and aircraft operate in a harsh environment during their service life. Structural integrity of engineering components used in these industries is paramount for the reliability and economics of operation. Two regression models based on the concept of Gaussian process regression (GPR) and Minimax probability machine regression (MPMR) were developed to predict stress intensity factor range (𝚫K). Both GPR and MPMR are in the frame work of probability distribution. Models were developed by using the fatigue crack growth data in MATLAB by appropriately modifying the tools. Fatigue crack growth experiments were carried out on Eccentrically-loaded Single Edge notch Tension (ESE(T)) specimens made of API 5L X65 Grade steel in inert and corrosive environments (2.0% and 3.5% NaCl). The experiments were carried out under constant amplitude cyclic loading with a stress ratio of 0.1 and 5.0 Hz frequency (inert environment), 0.5 Hz frequency (corrosive environment). Crack growth rate (da/dN) and stress intensity factor range (𝚫K) values were evaluated at incremental values of loading cycle and crack length. About 70 to 75% of the data has been used for training and the remaining for validation of the models. It is observed that the predicted SIF range is in good agreement with the corresponding experimental observations. Further, the performance of the models was assessed with several statistical parameters, namely, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Coefficient of Efficiency (E), Root Mean Square Error to Observation's Standard Deviation Ratio (RSR), Normalized Mean Bias Error (NMBE), Performance Index (ρ) and Variance Account Factor (VAF).

A Study on the Comparison of Electricity Forecasting Models: Korea and China

  • Zheng, Xueyan;Kim, Sahm
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.675-683
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    • 2015
  • In the 21st century, we now face the serious problems of the enormous consumption of the energy resources. Depending on the power consumption increases, both China and South Korea face a reduction in available resources. This paper considers the regression models and time-series models to compare the performance of the forecasting accuracy based on Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) in order to forecast the electricity demand accurately on the short-term period (68 months) data in Northeast China and find the relationship with Korea. Among the models the support vector regression (SVR) model shows superior performance than time-series models for the short-term period data and the time-series models show similar results with the SVR model when we use long-term period data.

Optimal designs for small Poisson regression experiments using second-order asymptotic

  • Mansour, S. Mehr;Niaparast, M.
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.26 no.6
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    • pp.527-538
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    • 2019
  • This paper considers the issue of obtaining the optimal design in Poisson regression model when the sample size is small. Poisson regression model is widely used for the analysis of count data. Asymptotic theory provides the basis for making inference on the parameters in this model. However, for small size experiments, asymptotic approximations, such as unbiasedness, may not be valid. Therefore, first, we employ the second order expansion of the bias of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) and derive the mean square error (MSE) of MLE to measure the quality of an estimator. We then define DM-optimality criterion, which is based on a function of the MSE. This criterion is applied to obtain locally optimal designs for small size experiments. The effect of sample size on the obtained designs are shown. We also obtain locally DM-optimal designs for some special cases of the model.

EFFICIENT ESTIMATION OF POPULATION MEAN IN STRATIFIED SAMPLING USING REGRESSION TYPE ESTIMATOR

  • Grover Lovleen Kumar
    • Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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    • v.35 no.4
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    • pp.441-452
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    • 2006
  • Here an efficient regression type estimator for a stratified population mean is proposed under the two-phase sampling scheme. While constructing the proposed estimator, it is assumed that the first auxiliary variable x is directly and highly correlated with the study variable y, and the second auxiliary variable z is directly and highly correlated with the first auxiliary variable x. However the variable z is not directly correlated with the variable y, but they are just correlated with each other only due to their direct and high correlation with the variable x. The proposed regression type estimator is found to be always more efficient than the existing estimators defined under the same situation.

Imputation Using Factor Score Regression

  • Lee, Sang-Eun;Hwang, Hee-Jin;Shin, Key-Il
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.317-323
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    • 2009
  • Recently not even government polices but small town decisions are based on the survey data/information, so the most of government agencies/organizations demand various sample surveys in each fields for more detail information. However in conducting the sample survey, nonresponse problem rises very often and it becomes a major issue on judging the accuracy of survey. For that matters, one solution ran be using the administration data. However unfortunately most of administration data are restricted to the common users. The other solution can be the imputation. Therefore several method, of imputation are studied in various fields. In this study, in stead of the simple regression imputation method which is commonly used, factor score regression method is applied specially to the incomplete data which have the unit and item misting values in survey data. Here for simulation study, Consumer Expenditure Surveys in Korea are used.

Blood Picture of Race Horses in Korea (경주마(競走馬)의 혈액상(血液像)에 관(關)하여)

  • Kim, Tae Jong;Lee, Kang Wook
    • Korean Journal of Veterinary Research
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.179-184
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    • 1974
  • The blood picture of 85 healthy race horses in Korea was investigated. The ranges and mean values of erythrocyte, hemoglobin, hematocrit value, mean corpuscular volume, mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration, and total white blood cell count in the blood picture were determine. The respective mean value and standard deviation and age differences were as follows: 1. The erythrobyte count was shown as range of 6.20 to $11.32{\times}10^6/mm^3$ with mean of $8.61{\pm}1.92{\times}10^6/mm^3$(SD). The leucocyte count was shown as range 5.0 to $18.0{\times}10^3/mm^3$ with mean of $8.25{\pm}1.51{\times}10^3/mm^3$(SD). There were not significant. differences in age, 2. The mean value of hemoglobin was shown $13.9{\pm}1.7g/100ml(SD)$ ranging 9.8 to 16.8g/100ml. The mean value of hematocrit was shown $40.9{\pm}3.94ml/100ml(SD)$ ranging 26 to 54. There were not significant differences in age. 3. The mean corpuscular hemoglobin was shown as range of 11.8 to 22.2pg with mean of $16.9{\pm}4.69$(SD). The mean corpuscular volume was shown as range of 34.5 to $71.3cu{\mu}$ with mean of $49.0{\pm}7.32cu{\mu}$(SD). The mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration was shown as range of 30.6 to 39.4 g/100 ml with mean of $34.6{\pm}2.36$(SD). There were not significant differences in age. 4. The correlation among erythrocyte count, hemoglobin and hematocrit value were observed as follows: Erythrocyte count and hemoglobin (+0.328), rythrocyte count and hematocrit vague (+0.319). A linear regression equation was shown as follows: Erythrocyte count and hemoglobin (Y=0.336x+10.977), erythrocyte count and hematocrit value (Y=0.655x+35.274). 5. The high correlation between hemoglobin and hematocrit vague was observed (r= +0.836). A linear regression equation was shown: (Y=1.948x+13.895).

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Comparison of Regression Models for Estimating Ventilation Rate of Mechanically Ventilated Swine Farm (강제환기식 돈사의 환기량 추정을 위한 회귀모델의 비교)

  • Jo, Gwanggon;Ha, Taehwan;Yoon, Sanghoo;Jang, Yuna;Jung, Minwoong
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.62 no.1
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    • pp.61-70
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    • 2020
  • To estimate the ventilation volume of mechanically ventilated swine farms, various regression models were applied, and errors were compared to select the regression model that can best simulate actual data. Linear regression, linear spline, polynomial regression (degrees 2 and 3), logistic curve, generalized additive model (GAM), and gompertz curve were compared. Overfitting models were excluded even when the error rate was small. The evaluation criteria were root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The evaluation results indicated that degree 3 exhibited the lowest error rate; however, an overestimation contradiction was observed in a certain section. The logistic curve was the most stable and superior to all the models. In the estimation of ventilation volume by all of the models, the estimated ventilation volume of the logistic curve was the smallest except for the model with a large error rate and the overestimated model.

Support Vector Median Regression

  • Hwang, Chang-Ha
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.67-74
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    • 2003
  • Median regression analysis has robustness properties which make it an attractive alternative to regression based on the mean. Support vector machine (SVM) is used widely in real-world regression tasks. In this paper, we propose a new SV median regression based on check function. And we illustrate how this proposed SVM performs and compare this with the SVM based on absolute deviation loss function.

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Nonparametric Estimation using Regression Quantiles in a Regression Model

  • Han, Sang-Moon;Jung, Byoung-Cheol
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.25 no.5
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    • pp.793-802
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    • 2012
  • One proposal is made to construct a nonparametric estimator of slope parameters in a regression model under symmetric error distributions. This estimator is based on the use of the idea of minimizing approximate variance of a proposed estimator using regression quantiles. This nonparametric estimator and some other L-estimators are studied and compared with well known M-estimators through a simulation study.

Selection of bandwidth for local linear composite quantile regression smoothing (국소 선형 복합 분위수 회귀에서의 평활계수 선택)

  • Jhun, Myoungshic;Kang, Jongkyeong;Bang, Sungwan
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.30 no.5
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    • pp.733-745
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    • 2017
  • Local composite quantile regression is a useful non-parametric regression method widely used for its high efficiency. Data smoothing methods using kernel are typically used in the estimation process with performances that rely largely on the smoothing parameter rather than the kernel. However, $L_2$-norm is generally used as criterion to estimate the performance of the regression function. In addition, many studies have been conducted on the selection of smoothing parameters that minimize mean square error (MSE) or mean integrated square error (MISE). In this paper, we explored the optimality of selecting smoothing parameters that determine the performance of non-parametric regression models using local linear composite quantile regression. As evaluation criteria for the choice of smoothing parameter, we used mean absolute error (MAE) and mean integrated absolute error (MIAE), which have not been researched extensively due to mathematical difficulties. We proved the uniqueness of the optimal smoothing parameter based on MAE and MIAE. Furthermore, we compared the optimal smoothing parameter based on the proposed criteria (MAE and MIAE) with existing criteria (MSE and MISE). In this process, the properties of the proposed method were investigated through simulation studies in various situations.