• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.7 no.1
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• pp.31-39
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• 2016

In this study, the time series of the number of days with $25^{\circ}C$ or higher temperatures in the Jeju region were analyzed and they showed a strong trend of increase until recently. To determine the existence of a climate regime shift in this time series, the statistical change-point analysis was applied and it was found that the number of days with $25^{\circ}C$ or higher temperatures in the Jeju region increased sharply since 1993. Therefore, in order to examine the cause of the sharp increase of the days with $25^{\circ}C$ or higher temperatures in the Jeju region, the differences between the averages of 1994~2013 and the averages of 1974~1993 were analyzed for the large-scale environment. In the Korean Peninsula including the Jeju region, precipitable water and total cloud cover decreased recently due to the intensification of strong anomalous anticyclones near the Korean Peninsula in the top, middle and bottom layers of the troposphere. As a result of this, the number of days with $25^{\circ}C$ or higher temperatures in the Jeju region could increase sharply in recent years. Furthermore, in the analysis of sensible heat net flux and daily maximum temperatures at 2 m, which is the height that can be felt by people, the Korean Peninsula was included in the positive anomaly region. In addition, the frequency of typhoons affecting the Korean Peninsula decreased recently, which reduced the opportunities for air temperature drops in the Jeju region.

• Water Engineering Research
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• v.5 no.2
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• pp.81-99
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• 2004

Long term streamflow regime under virtual climate change scenario was examined. Rainfall forecast simulation of the Canadian Global Coupled Model (CGCM2) of the Canadian Climate Center for modeling and analysis for the IPCC SRES B2 scenario was used for analysis. The B2 scenario envisions slower population growth (10.4 billion by 2010) with a more rapidly evolving economy and more emphasis on environmental protection. The relatively large scale of GCM hinders the accurate computation of the important streamflow characteristics such as the peak flow rate and lag time, etc. The GCM rainfall with more than 100km scale was downscaled to 2km-scale using the space-time stochastic random cascade model. The HEC-HMS was used for distributed hydrologic model which can take the grid rainfall as input data. The result illustrates that the annual variation of the total runoff and the peak flow can be much greater than rainfall variation, which means actual impact of rainfall variation for the available water resources can be much greater than the extent of the rainfall variation.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.44 no.8
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• pp.871-888
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• 2012

This paper aims at presenting the state of the art, the recent progress, and the perspective for the future, in the modelling of two-phase flow in the horizontal legs of a PWR. All phenomena relevant for safety analysis are listed first. The selection of the modelling approach for system codes is then discussed, including the number of fluids or fields, the space and time resolution, and the use of flow regime maps. The classical two-fluid six-equation one-pressure model as it is implemented in the CATHARE code is then presented and its properties are described. It is shown that the axial effects of gravity forces may be correctly taken into account even in the case of change of the cross section area or of the pipe orientation. It is also shown that it can predict both fluvial and torrential flow with a possible hydraulic jump. Since phase stratification plays a dominant role, the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability and the stability of bubbly flow regime are discussed. A transition criterion based on a stability analysis of shallow water waves may be used to predict the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability. Recent experimental data obtained in the METERO test facility are analysed to model the transition from a bubbly to stratified flow regime. Finally, perspectives for further improvement of the modelling are drawn including dynamic modelling of turbulence and interfacial area and multi-field models.

• Korea and Global Affairs
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• v.3 no.1
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• pp.5-38
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• 2019

After the democratization movement in 1987, korean politics was transformed into three kim's politics by y Kim Yeong-sam, Kim Dae-jung and Kim Jong-pil. Before the time of three kim's politics, korean politics lasted for one long term, but three kim's politics made possible the peaceful regime change through political party integration and party coalition. The evaluation of three kim's politics coexist both positive and negative. The Positive political effects are diversification of political party composition and stabilization of regime change. Three kim's politics transformed the political party composition of Korea from a two-party system to a multi-party system, made possible a peaceful regime change through the unification of three parties and the DJP coalition. However, the negative political distortions of three kim's politics are the shortening of political parties and the concentration of political ideology. In three kim's politics, political party in Korea has a very short life due to the creation of political parties, the dissolution of political parties, the reorganization of political parties and the integration of political parties. Conservatism and progressive tendencies related three kim's politics were stabilized through Yeongnam region and Honam region. Therefore, three kim's politics means that the proportion of Korean politics is very high. Political effects and distortions derived from three kim's politics have become a challenge for Korean politics to overcome.

• Journal of the Korean Society for information Management
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• v.41 no.1
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• pp.107-132
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• 2024

This study attempted to analyze newspaper articles related to May 18 through frequency analysis and network analysis using news data related to May 18 for about 30 years from 1990 to 2022 at the Korea Press Foundation's Big Kinds. Specifically, quantitative change trends were examined by analyzing the amount of articles by period and region, and the connection structure between major keywords by the regime was explored through network analysis by regime using co-appearance keywords. As a result of the analysis, it was found that 2019 had the largest amount of coverage, which had many social issues in time, and the Jeolla-do region had the largest amount of coverage in the region. And as a result of network analysis, there were differences in words related to May 18 in news data according to the perception and policy of the regime toward May 18. As a result of synthesizing the analysis of May 18 news data, it was confirmed that May 18 was becoming a democratic movement over time regardless of region, but at the same time, the distortion of May 18 was not resolved.

• Convergence Security Journal
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• v.14 no.6_1
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• pp.75-87
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• 2014

It may be meaningful that analysis of possible continuity and change of North Korea's Kim Jong-un's ruling in its third year. For this analysis, for the application more rational and statistical analysis methods, this study takes advantage of the new years' messages of Kim Il Sung, Kim Jong Il, and Kim Jong-un. In North Korea, the new years' messages are rare enough to give influence to every field of the North Korea's community and the New Year's message performs tutorial role throughout the whole year. The said messages of Il Sung, Kim Jong Il, and Kim Jong-un regimes have been researched and comprehensively summarized. The summarized New Year's Message by Kim Il Sung, Kim Jong Il, and Kim Jong Un are separated, compared and analyzed by the regime by presentation method, configured information, and others followed by New Year message's characteristics and implications of each North Korean regime that have been investigated. Based on the results of this analysis of Kim Jong-un era, possibility of its continuation and change is forecasted. Above all, for possible continuation of the ruling, sticking to the governing socialist way and military-first politics are presented. For possible causes of change, such the four factors as partial opening to overcome economic problems, the North Korean nuclear issue, influx of the nature of capitalism, and Kim Jung-un's control weakness have been presented. Such the factors of possible change and continuation of the North Korea Kim Jung-un ruling are expected to work as a combination of factors. The issue of continuation and change of North Korea Kim Jong-un's control is a key point for us to solve the issues between North and South Koreas. In the situation that the whole people of South Korea have a national consensus in the effort of gathering the public opinion, it is a high time that we needed to have much flexibility to actively cope with the North Korean issues.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.28 no.3
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• pp.429-442
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• 2015

Volatility forecasting in financial markets is an important issue because it is directly related to the profit of return. The volatility is generally modeled as time-varying conditional heteroskedasticity. A generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (GARCH) model is often used for modeling; however, it is not suitable to reflect structural changes (such as a financial crisis or debt crisis) into the volatility. As a remedy, we introduce the Markov regime switching GARCH (MRS-GARCH) model. For the empirical example, we analyze and forecast the volatility of the daily Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) data from January 4, 2000 to October 30, 2014. The result shows that the regime of low volatility persists with a leverage effect. We also observe that the performance of MRS-GARCH is superior to other GARCH models for in-sample fitting; in addition, it is also superior to other models for long-term forecasting in out-of-sample fitting. The MRS-GARCH model can be a good alternative to GARCH-type models because it can reflect financial market structural changes into modeling and volatility forecasting.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.15 no.8
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• pp.5363-5368
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• 2014

This study examined contribution rate on the Soyangho Lake watershed based on the flow regime, and seasonal change was evaluated by calculating the delivery pollution load of the drainage area of Soyangho Lake watershed. According to the contribution rate of the drainage area by the flow regime change, Inbukcheon Creek watershed's SS and T-P entry have recorded abnormal Six month flow and a contribution rate of 46% and 51% during the Low-water flow period. At the same time, the T-P recorded a 49.5% contribution rate and a contribution rate of 48.5% during the Low-water flow period. In sequence, Inbukcheon creek's SS entry recorded a comparatively higher contribution rate than the other drainage area, which are 39.6% and 44.3% during the entire season and 53.8% for T-P, as a result of observing the contribution rate based on the seasonal changes. The T-N at the Naerincheon Creek watershed for the entire season recorded a contribution rate between 39.6% and 44.3%. Overall, Inbukcheon Creek watershed's SS and T-P entry and Naerincheon creek's T-N had a high contribution rate on contaminant spill.

• Convergence Security Journal
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• v.13 no.5
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• pp.3-10
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• 2013

This study is trying to suggest the continuity and changes that would be made in inter-Korean military negotiations in the future under the Kim Jeong-eun regime by analyzing the recent inter-Korean Working-Level Talks for Gaeseong Industrial Complex based on 'anti-Japanese guerilla style negotiation model, the military negotiation model under Kim Jeong-il era. Especially, through analysis of the inter-Korean Working-Level Talks for Gaeseong Industrial Complex, it is verified that behavior similar to that in the military talks in the past is found even in the economic negotiations. Such analysis leads to an assumption that negotiations under the Kim Jeong-eun regime would be made within the category of the military negotiations under the Kim Jeong-il era. Fundamentally North Korea will change but try to achieve its objectives in the military talks within the existing frame of strategic culture rather than changing it. Such phenomenon will continue for some time. In the future inter-Korean military talks, however, North Korea will try to change its behavior to cope with its financial difficulties. Accordingly, the South Korea's government will have to have paradigm shift toward inter-Korean military negotiations. Especially, Kim Jeong-eun's studying abroad in the past will make him change in the negotiations. At this moment, the South Korean government must make continuous efforts to induce dialogue and negotiation. In order to induce the North Korea to change, the development of economic norm logic with the united front applied in the strategic culture of military negotiation and the formation of a value system in the North Korea's military negotiation policy makers will lead to the creation of a new military negotiation framework.

• 한국항공우주법학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2008.05a
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• pp.185-215
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• 2008

The exploitation of the natural resources of the Moon and other celestial bodies represents one of the most exiting future developments in the field of space law as well as a unique occasion for the economic and social growth of mankind as a whole. The large number of benefits that are expected to be generated from the exploitation of these resources, indeed, not only will contribute to the betterment of conditions of people on Earth but also will allow mankind to face and likely solve one of the biggest problems currently affecting our planet, namely the exhaustion of the stocks of raw materials and other source of energy, such as fossil fuels. The exploitation of the natural resources of the Moon and other celestial bodies, however, has been prevented so far by the absence of dedicated space law rules allowing its orderly and peaceful development and clarifying the rights and duties of the parties involved in it. Due to the uncertainty generated by the absence of these rules, indeed, States as well as private operators have refrained from investing in the exploitation of space resources so far. The time to change this situation and to allow the exploitation of extraterrestrial resources to begin has finally come. This paper aims at fulfilling this purpose by proposing a legal regime containing specific and detailed rules to regulate the exploitation of the natural resources of the Moon and other celestial bodies.