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Effect of Octreotide on Patients with Malignant Bowel Obstruction (악성장폐색 환자에서 Octreotide의 치료 효과)

  • Park, Ji-Chan;Jang, Yi-Sun;Jeon, Eun-Kyoung;Kim, Dong-Kyu;Lee, Wook-Hyun;Lee, Guk-Jin;You, Si-Young;Choi, Hyun-Ho;Park, Suk-Young
    • Journal of Hospice and Palliative Care
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.194-198
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    • 2009
  • Department of Internal Medicine, The Catholic University of Korea College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea Purpose: Malignant bowel obstruction causes gastrointestinal symptoms and leads to diminished quality of life in patients with advanced cancer. Several studies have shown the efficacy of octreotide for the relief of malignant bowel obstruction-related symptoms. The aim of this study is to assess the efficacy and safety of octreotide in patients with malignant bowel obstruction. Methods: We retrospectively reviewed medical records of twenty nine patients who had suffered from malignant bowel obstruction without clinical improvement of conservative care and subsequently, received octreotide treatment. Initial dosage of octreotide was 0.1 mg/day, and dose was escalated depending on the clinical effect. For each patient, we assessed visual analogue scale (VAS) of pain, number of vomiting episode, and amount of nasogastric tube drainage. Results: Median dosage of octreotide was 0.2 mg/day (range 0.1~0.6), and median duration from initial medication to death was 20 days (range 2~103). VAS before and after octreotide treatment were 5.6$\pm$1.24, and 2.7$\pm$0.96, respectively. The numbers of vomiting episode before and after octreotide treatment were 3.6/day$\pm$2.5, and 0.4/day$\pm$0.8, respectively. The mean amounts of nasogastric tube drainage before and after octreotide treatment were 975$\pm$1,083 cc/day and 115$\pm$196 cc/day, respectively. Statistically significant reduction in VAS, the number of vomiting episode and the amount of nasogastric tube drainage were observed after octreotide treatment (P<0.05). Conclusion: Administration of octreotide in patients with malignant bowel obstruction, which is uncontrolled by other medication, was effective and safe. In such clinical situations, physicians should consider to add of octreotide for symptomatic control.

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The Application of Operations Research to Librarianship : Some Research Directions (운영연구(OR)의 도서관응용 -그 몇가지 잠재적응용분야에 대하여-)

  • Choi Sung Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Library and Information Science
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    • v.4
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    • pp.43-71
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    • 1975
  • Operations research has developed rapidly since its origins in World War II. Practitioners of O. R. have contributed to almost every aspect of government and business. More recently, a number of operations researchers have turned their attention to library and information systems, and the author believes that significant research has resulted. It is the purpose of this essay to introduce the library audience to some of these accomplishments, to present some of the author's hypotheses on the subject of library management to which he belives O. R. has great potential, and to suggest some future research directions. Some problem areas in librianship where O. R. may play a part have been discussed and are summarized below. (1) Library location. It is usually necessary to make balance between accessibility and cost In location problems. Many mathematical methods are available for identifying the optimal locations once the balance between these two criteria has been decided. The major difficulties lie in relating cost to size and in taking future change into account when discriminating possible solutions. (2) Planning new facilities. Standard approaches to using mathematical models for simple investment decisions are well established. If the problem is one of choosing the most economical way of achieving a certain objective, one may compare th althenatives by using one of the discounted cash flow techniques. In other situations it may be necessary to use of cost-benefit approach. (3) Allocating library resources. In order to allocate the resources to best advantage the librarian needs to know how the effectiveness of the services he offers depends on the way he puts his resources. The O. R. approach to the problems is to construct a model representing effectiveness as a mathematical function of levels of different inputs(e.g., numbers of people in different jobs, acquisitions of different types, physical resources). (4) Long term planning. Resource allocation problems are generally concerned with up to one and a half years ahead. The longer term certainly offers both greater freedom of action and greater uncertainty. Thus it is difficult to generalize about long term planning problems. In other fields, however, O. R. has made a significant contribution to long range planning and it is likely to have one to make in librarianship as well. (5) Public relations. It is generally accepted that actual and potential users are too ignorant both of the range of library services provided and of how to make use of them. How should services be brought to the attention of potential users? The answer seems to lie in obtaining empirical evidence by controlled experiments in which a group of libraries participated. (6) Acquisition policy. In comparing alternative policies for acquisition of materials one needs to know the implications of each service which depends on the stock. Second is the relative importance to be ascribed to each service for each class of user. By reducing the level of the first, formal models will allow the librarian to concentrate his attention upon the value judgements which will be necessary for the second. (7) Loan policy. The approach to choosing between loan policies is much the same as the previous approach. (8) Manpower planning. For large library systems one should consider constructing models which will permit the skills necessary in the future with predictions of the skills that will be available, so as to allow informed decisions. (9) Management information system for libraries. A great deal of data can be available in libraries as a by-product of all recording activities. It is particularly tempting when procedures are computerized to make summary statistics available as a management information system. The values of information to particular decisions that may have to be taken future is best assessed in terms of a model of the relevant problem. (10) Management gaming. One of the most common uses of a management game is as a means of developing staff's to take decisions. The value of such exercises depends upon the validity of the computerized model. If the model were sufficiently simple to take the form of a mathematical equation, decision-makers would probably able to learn adequately from a graph. More complex situations require simulation models. (11) Diagnostics tools. Libraries are sufficiently complex systems that it would be useful to have available simple means of telling whether performance could be regarded as satisfactory which, if it could not, would also provide pointers to what was wrong. (12) Data banks. It would appear to be worth considering establishing a bank for certain types of data. It certain items on questionnaires were to take a standard form, a greater pool of data would de available for various analysis. (13) Effectiveness measures. The meaning of a library performance measure is not readily interpreted. Each measure must itself be assessed in relation to the corresponding measures for earlier periods of time and a standard measure that may be a corresponding measure in another library, the 'norm', the 'best practice', or user expectations.

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Field Bioassays On Shellfish To Assess Environmental Pollution Levels Of The Masan Bay (마산만(馬山灣)의 환경오염(環境汚染) 평가(評價)를 위한 야외(野外) 생물(生物) 오염(汚染) 시험(試驗) 연구(硏究))

  • Park, Joo-Surk
    • 한국해양학회지
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.15-25
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    • 1979
  • A study on field bioassay test using four species of commercially important shellfish was carried out to assess the effect of pollutants and determine the extent of marine environmental pollution of the Masan Bay from 9 to 15 August 1978. Water quality analysis and planktological examination of sea water were made during the experiment and the examination gave the following results. The water temperature was so high at 31.7$^{\circ}C$ in maximum and rather subject to change on weather condition of the land than on the effect of the water mass from outer bay. The range of DO,COD and SS at the stations were 0.3-7.08cc/l, 0.07-3.31ppm and 5.5-117ppm, respectively with the high values of COD and SS at the stations 7 and 1. The concentrations of the dissolved inorganic nitrogen in sea water, NH$\sub$4/-N, NO$\sub$2/-N, NO$\sub$3/-N, and PO$\sub$4/-P were 18.90-99.80, 2.48- 19.60, 13.00-39.00 and 1.04-14.0$\mu\textrm{g}$ at/l, respectively with decrease of their values in the outer part of the Bay. The high values mentioned above were caused by the sewage and industrial activities. The effects of organic waste are increased oxygen demand, nutrient concentration, turbidity and a higher input of pathogens, leading to structural changes in the marine ecosystems and to a considerable hazard to public health. The percentage composition of phytoplankton standing crop between diatom and dinoflagellate was characterized by making a difference between the two groups in respect of location: a decrease of diatom and a increase of dinoflagellate in numerical abundance toward inner part from outer part of the bay. Namely phytoplankton organisms were composed of 80% of diatom and 20% of dinoflagellate in outer bay, on the contrary, only 4% of diatom and 96% of dinoflagellate occupied by 94% of prorocentrum micans known as tolerant species to polluted reaas in the inner bay. On the occurrence and composition of zooplankton, there are two significant communities in the bay:one is characterized by the predominance of Oithona nana and the other by Favella sp They were composed of a range from 84% to 90% of the total organisms and monotonously constituted of themselves only at most inner station 3 even small numbers. From the results mentioned above, Oithona nana, Favella and prorocentrum micans recommed themselves as valuable indicators for judging the extent of the marine pollution.During the period of the biossays Mytilus edulis showed the highest mortality and Tapes japonica the lowest one between the four test species. The highest death rate by stations was found at most inner stations 3'and 4near Masan Free Export Zone with the most sensitive response and the lowest one occured at outer station 13 where no death specimen of oyster and arkshell was found during the whole test period.As for mussel,85 percent death rate appeared after 72 hours and 100percent rate after 120hours at station 4. It was found that the significant high mortality of the test shellfish mentioned above was caused by severe pollution with mainly organic pollutants from domestic sewage and industrial wastes from the results of too much higher concentrations of dissolved inorganic nitrogen especially ammonia-N,COD,SS and lack of dissolved oxygen,and furthermore occurrence and abundance composition of Prorcentrum,Favella and Oithona nana by stations, valuable indicator species of coastal pollution by orgnic and boilogical pollutants.

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Assessment of the Microbiological Quality of Vegetable from Urban Community Gardens in Korea

  • Kim, Jin-Won;Choi, In-Wook;Na, Won-Seok;Baljii, Enkhjargar;Yu, Yong-Man;Youn, Young-Nam;Lee, Young-Ha
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.1-5
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    • 2014
  • Many community gardens in large cities worldwide grow vegetables; however, no information regarding the levels of sanitary indicator bacteria and prevalence of foodborne pathogens in vegetables grown in urban community gardens is available. To evaluate the microbiological quality of vegetables from urban community gardens in Korea, 530 samples (nine types of vegetable, including Chinese cabbage, lettuce, radish leaves, spinach, mustard leaves, crown daisy, leek, Korean cabbage, and chicory) were collected at 11 urban community gardens in Seoul, Korea from September through October 2012. The levels of total aerobic bacteria, Escherichia coli, total coliforms, Salmonella spp. Listeria monocytogenes, and E. coli O157:H7 were evaluated quantitatively and/or qualitatively. The mean numbers of total aerobic bacteria and coliforms were 6.3 log CFU/g (range 3.8-8.1 log CFU/g) and 4.3 log CFU/g (range 2.1-6.4 log CFU/g), respectively. Total coliforms were detected on 67% of whole vegetables. Chicory showed the highest number of total aerobic bacteria and coliforms, whereas the lowest number of coliforms was detected on leeks. E. coli was detected on 2.3% of whole vegetables, including lettuce, radish leaves, mustard leaves, and chicory; however, foodborne pathogenic bacteria were not detected on any of the vegetable samples using this highly sensitive and validated procedure. Based on these findings, the presence of coliforms and E. coli demonstrates that opportunity for improvement of microbiological safety exists throughout the produce production chain, although no major foodborne pathogens were present in vegetables grown in urban community gardens.

Fate and Transport of Cr(VI) Contaminated Groundwater from the Industrial Area in Daejeon (대전 산업단지 지하수의 6가 크롬 오염 및 확산 평가)

  • Chon, Chul-Min;Moon, Sang-Ho;Ahn, Joo-Sung;Kim, Yung-Sik;Won, Jong-Ho;Ahn, Kyoung-Hwan
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.40 no.4
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    • pp.403-418
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    • 2007
  • The objective of this research was to characterize the fate and transport of Cr(VI) contaminated groundwater in the Daejeon industrial area. Five subsidiary monitoring wells were newly installed and two existing wells were utilized for the investigation and the reduction process of Cr(VI) contaminated groundwater of the Daejeon(Mun-pyeong) national groundwater monitoring station. The Cr(VI) concentrations at the shallow aquifer well of the station were in the range of 3.2-4.5 mg/L indicating continuous contamination. However, Cr was not detected at the deep bedrock well and the other monitoring wells except MPH-1 and 3. The Cr(VI) concentrations of MPH-1 and MPH-3 were below the drinking water guideline value (0.05 mg/L). Therefore, the plume of the Cr(VI) contaminated groundwater was predicted to be confined within the narrow boundary around the station. The soluble/exchangeable Cr(VI) concentrations were below the detection limit in all core and slime samples taken from the five newly installed wells. Although the exact source of contamination was not directly detected in the study area, the spatial Cr(VI) distribution in groundwater and characteristics of the core samples indicated that the source and the dispersion range were confined within the 100 m area from the monitoring station. The contamination might be induced from the unlined landfill of industrial wastes which was observed during the installation of an subsidiary monitoring well. For the evaluation of the natural attenuation of Cr(VI), available reduction capacities of Cr(VI) with an initial concentration of 5 mg/L were measured in soil and aquifer materials. Dark-gray clay layer samples have high capacities of Cr(VI) reduction ranging from 58 to 64%, which is obviously related to organic carbon contents of the samples. The analysis of reduction capacities implied that the soil and aquifer materials controlled the dispersion of Cr(VI) contamination in this area. However, some possibilities of dispersion by the preferential flow cannot be excluded due to the limited numbers of monitoring wells. We suggest the removal of Cr(VI) contaminated groundwater by periodical pumping, and the continuous groundwater quality monitoring for evaluation of the Cr(VI) dispersion should be followed in the study area.

DISEASE DIAGNOSED AND DESCRIBED BY NIRS

  • Tsenkova, Roumiana N.
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Near Infrared Spectroscopy Conference
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    • 2001.06a
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    • pp.1031-1031
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    • 2001
  • The mammary gland is made up of remarkably sensitive tissue, which has the capability of producing a large volume of secretion, milk, under normal or healthy conditions. When bacteria enter the gland and establish an infection (mastitis), inflammation is initiated accompanied by an influx of white cells from the blood stream, by altered secretory function, and changes in the volume and composition of secretion. Cell numbers in milk are closely associated with inflammation and udder health. These somatic cell counts (SCC) are accepted as the international standard measurement of milk quality in dairy and for mastitis diagnosis. NIR Spectra of unhomogenized composite milk samples from 14 cows (healthy and mastitic), 7days after parturition and during the next 30 days of lactation were measured. Different multivariate analysis techniques were used to diagnose the disease at very early stage and determine how the spectral properties of milk vary with its composition and animal health. PLS model for prediction of somatic cell count (SCC) based on NIR milk spectra was made. The best accuracy of determination for the 1100-2500nm range was found using smoothed absorbance data and 10 PLS factors. The standard error of prediction for independent validation set of samples was 0.382, correlation coefficient 0.854 and the variation coefficient 7.63%. It has been found that SCC determination by NIR milk spectra was indirect and based on the related changes in milk composition. From the spectral changes, we learned that when mastitis occurred, the most significant factors that simultaneously influenced milk spectra were alteration of milk proteins and changes in ionic concentration of milk. It was consistent with the results we obtained further when applied 2DCOS. Two-dimensional correlation analysis of NIR milk spectra was done to assess the changes in milk composition, which occur when somatic cell count (SCC) levels vary. The synchronous correlation map revealed that when SCC increases, protein levels increase while water and lactose levels decrease. Results from the analysis of the asynchronous plot indicated that changes in water and fat absorptions occur before other milk components. In addition, the technique was used to assess the changes in milk during a period when SCC levels do not vary appreciably. Results indicated that milk components are in equilibrium and no appreciable change in a given component was seen with respect to another. This was found in both healthy and mastitic animals. However, milk components were found to vary with SCC content regardless of the range considered. This important finding demonstrates that 2-D correlation analysis may be used to track even subtle changes in milk composition in individual cows. To find out the right threshold for SCC when used for mastitis diagnosis at cow level, classification of milk samples was performed using soft independent modeling of class analogy (SIMCA) and different spectral data pretreatment. Two levels of SCC - 200 000 cells/$m\ell$ and 300 000 cells/$m\ell$, respectively, were set up and compared as thresholds to discriminate between healthy and mastitic cows. The best detection accuracy was found with 200 000 cells/$m\ell$ as threshold for mastitis and smoothed absorbance data: - 98% of the milk samples in the calibration set and 87% of the samples in the independent test set were correctly classified. When the spectral information was studied it was found that the successful mastitis diagnosis was based on reviling the spectral changes related to the corresponding changes in milk composition. NIRS combined with different ways of spectral data ruining can provide faster and nondestructive alternative to current methods for mastitis diagnosis and a new inside into disease understanding at molecular level.

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A Clinical Study of Aseptic Meningitis in the Northern Area of Seoul in 2002 (2002년 서울 북부지역에서 유행한 무균성 수막염의 임상적 고찰)

  • Song, Myoung Hak;Chung, Ju Young;Kwon, Ji Won;Kim, Sang Woo
    • Pediatric Infection and Vaccine
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.176-182
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    • 2004
  • Purpose : The etiologic agents of aseptic meningitis remain mostly unknown due to difficulty of viral culture and identification. There was an outbreak of aseptic meningitis in northern area of Seoul from June to August, 2002. We report the clinical features, laboratory data and causative viruses on 196 children with aseptic meningitis during this period. Methods : We retrospectively studied about clinical manifestations and laboratory findings 196 patients diagnosed as aseptic meningitis at Sanggye-Paik hospital. Virus isolation and serotype identification were performed by cell culture and reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction(RT-PCR) of the cerebrospinal fluid. Results : The male to female ratio was 1.39 : 1 and the mean age was 5.8+3 years. The clinical manifestations were fever, headache and vomiting. It occurred mostly in June, July and August. The numbers of peripheral blood leukocytes were $4,800{\sim}24,360/mm^3$. On cerebrospinal fluid examinations, leukocytes were in range of 10~2,000(mean 105)/$mm^3$, protein level in range of 15~171(mean 41.4) mg/dL and glucose level from 16~97(mean 57.9) mg/dL. Viral culture of cerebrospinal fluid showed 3 cases of Echovirus 9, 1 case of 25 and 30. In stool culture, 2 cases of Echovirus 6, 2 cases of Echovirus 13 and 1 case of Echovirus 30 were isolated. Conclusion : The etiologic viruses of the aseptic meningitis in northern area of Seoul in 2002 are presumed to be Echovirus 6, 9, 13, 25, 30.

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Environmental Health Surveillance of Low Birth Weight in Seoul using Air Monitoring and Birth Data (2002년 서울시 대기오염과 출생 자료를 이용한 저체중아 환경보건감시체계 연구)

  • Seo, Ju-Hee;Kim, Ok-Jin;Kim, Byung-Mi;Park, Hye-Sook;Leem, Jong-Han;Hong, Yun-Chul;Kim, Young-Ju;Ha, Eun-Hee
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.40 no.5
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    • pp.363-370
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    • 2007
  • Objectives: The principal objective of this study was to determine the relationship between maternal exposure to air pollution and low birth weight and to propose a possible environmental health surveillance system for low birth weight. Methods: We acquired air monitoring data for Seoul from the Ministry of Environment, the meteorological data from the Korean Meteorological Administration, the exposure assessments from the National Institute of Environmental Research, and the birth data from the Korean National Statistical Office between January 1, 2002 and December 31, 2003. The final birth data were limited to singletons within $37{\sim}44$ weeks of gestational age. We defined the Low Birth Weight (LBW) group as infants with birth weights of less than 2500g and calculated the annual LBW rate by district. The air monitoring data were measured for $CO,\;SO_2,\;NO_2,\;and\;PM_{10}$ concentrations at 27 monitoring stations in Seoul. We utilized two models to evaluate the effects of air pollution on low birth weight: the first was the relationship between the annual concentration of air pollution and low birth weight (LBW) by individual and district, and the second involved a GIS exposure model constructed by Arc View 3.1. Results: LBW risk (by Gu, or district) was significantly increased to $1.113(95%\;CI=1.111{\sim}1.116)\;for\;CO,\;1.004(95%\;CI=1.003{\sim}1.005)\;for\;NO_2,\;1.202(95%\;CI=1.199{\sim}1.206\;for\;SO_2,\;and\;1.077(95%\;CI=1.075{\sim}1.078)\;\;for\;PM_{10}$ with each interquartile range change. Personal LBW risk was significantly increased to $1.081(95%\;CI=1.002{\sim}1.166)\;for\;CO,\;1.145(95%\;CI=1.036{\sim}1.267)\;for\;SO_2,\;and\;1.053(95%\;CI=1.002{\sim}1.108)\;for\;PM_{10}$ with each interquartile range change. Personal LBW risk was increased to $1.003(95%\;CI=0.954{\sim}1.055)\;for\;NO_2$, but this was not statistically significant. The air pollution concentrations predicted by GIS positively correlated with the numbers of low birth weights, particularly in highly polluted regions. Conclusions: Environmental health surveillance is a systemic, ongoing collection effort including the analysis of data correlated with environmentally-associated diseases and exposures. In addition. environmental health surveillance allows for a timely dissemination of information to those who require that information in order to take effective action. GIS modeling is crucially important for this purpose, and thus we attempted to develop a GIS-based environmental surveillance system for low birth weight.

Estimation of the Required Number of Fan Coil Unit for Surplus Solar Energy Recovery of Greenhouse (온실의 잉여 태양에너지 회수용 FCU 소요대수 검토)

  • Yun, Sung-Wook;Choi, Man Kwon;Kim, Ha Neul;Kang, Donghyeon;Lee, Siyoung;Son, Jinkwan;Yoon, Yong Cheol
    • Journal of Bio-Environment Control
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.83-88
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    • 2016
  • In this study, previously reported surplus solar energy-related study result and current status of fan coil unit (FCU) for cooling and heating installed in the current sites were briefly examined and then a method to determine the number of FCUs required to recover surplus solar energy was schematically proposed to provide basic data for researchers and technical engineers in this field. The maximum, mean, and minimum outside temperatures during the experiment period were about $28.2^{\circ}C$, $4.4^{\circ}C$, and $-11.5^{\circ}C$, respectively. The horizontal surface solar radiation level outside the greenhouse was in a range of $0.8-20.5MJ{\cdot}m^{-2}$ and mean and total solar radiation were $10.8MJ{\cdot}m^{-2}$ and $1,187.5MJ{\cdot}m^{-2}$. The mean temperature and relative humidity in the greenhouse during the daytime were in a range of 18.8-45.5 and 53.5-77.5%. The total surplus solar energy recovered from the greenhouse during the experiment period was approximately 6,613.4MJ, which could supplement about 6.7% of the total heating energy 98,600.2 MJ. In addition, the number of FCUs installed for heating varies case to case, although similar FCUs are used. Thus, it is necessary to study the installation height, orientation and installation distance as well as the appropriate number of FCUs from the efficient and economical viewpoints. The required numbers of FCUs for surplus solar energy recovery were 8.4-10.9units and 6.1-8.0units based on air mass and circular flow rate that passed through the FCUs. Considering calculation methods and the risks such as efficiency and use environments of FCUs, it was found that about nine units (one unit per $24m^3$ approximately) needed to be installed. The required number of FCUs for surplus solar energy recovery was around one unit per $24m^3$ approximately.

Quantification of Temperature Effects on Flowering Date Determination in Niitaka Pear (신고 배의 개화기 결정에 미치는 온도영향의 정량화)

  • Kim, Soo-Ock;Kim, Jin-Hee;Chung, U-Ran;Kim, Seung-Heui;Park, Gun-Hwan;Yun, Jin-I.
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.61-71
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    • 2009
  • Most deciduous trees in temperate zone are dormant during the winter to overcome cold and dry environment. Dormancy of deciduous fruit trees is usually separated into a period of rest by physiological conditions and a period of quiescence by unfavorable environmental conditions. Inconsistent and fewer budburst in pear orchards has been reported recently in South Korea and Japan and the insufficient chilling due to warmer winters is suspected to play a role. An accurate prediction of the flowering time under the climate change scenarios may be critical to the planning of adaptation strategy for the pear industry in the future. However, existing methods for the prediction of budburst depend on the spring temperature, neglecting potential effects of warmer winters on the rest release and subsequent budburst. We adapted a dormancy clock model which uses daily temperature data to calculate the thermal time for simulating winter phenology of deciduous trees and tested the feasibility of this model in predicting budburst and flowering of Niitaka pear, one of the favorite cultivars in Korea. In order to derive the model parameter values suitable for Niitaka, the mean time for the rest release was estimated by observing budburst of field collected twigs in a controlled environment. The thermal time (in chill-days) was calculated and accumulated by a predefined temperature range from fall harvest until the chilling requirement (maximum accumulated chill-days in a negative number) is met. The chilling requirement is then offset by anti-chill days (in positive numbers) until the accumulated chill-days become null, which is assumed to be the budburst date. Calculations were repeated with arbitrary threshold temperatures from $4^{\circ}C$ to $10^{\circ}C$ (at an interval of 0.1), and a set of threshold temperature and chilling requirement was selected when the estimated budburst date coincides with the field observation. A heating requirement (in accumulation of anti-chill days since budburst) for flowering was also determined from an experiment based on historical observations. The dormancy clock model optimized with the selected parameter values was used to predict flowering of Niitaka pear grown in Suwon for the recent 9 years. The predicted dates for full bloom were within the range of the observed dates with 1.9 days of root mean square error.