• 제목/요약/키워드: random scenario

검색결과 68건 처리시간 0.023초

Vehicle-bridge coupling vibration analysis based fatigue reliability prediction of prestressed concrete highway bridges

  • Zhu, Jinsong;Chen, Cheng;Han, Qinghua
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • 제49권2호
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    • pp.203-223
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    • 2014
  • The extensive use of prestressed reinforced concrete (PSC) highway bridges in marine environment drastically increases the sensitivity to both fatigue-and corrosion-induced damage of their critical structural components during their service lives. Within this scenario, an integrated method that is capable of evaluating the fatigue reliability, identifying a condition-based maintenance, and predicting the remaining service life of its critical components is therefore needed. To accomplish this goal, a procedure for fatigue reliability prediction of PSC highway bridges is proposed in the present study. Vehicle-bridge coupling vibration analysis is performed for obtaining the equivalent moment ranges of critical section of bridges under typical fatigue truck models. Three-dimensional nonlinear mathematical models of fatigue trucks are simplified as an eleven-degree-of-freedom system. Road surface roughness is simulated as zero-mean stationary Gaussian random processes using the trigonometric series method. The time-dependent stress-concentration factors of reinforcing bars and prestressing tendons are accounted for more accurate stress ranges determination. The limit state functions are constructed according to the Miner's linear damage rule, the time-dependent S-N curves of prestressing tendons and the site-specific stress cycle prediction. The effectiveness of the methodology framework is demonstrated to a T-type simple supported multi-girder bridge for fatigue reliability evaluation.

명중률의 불확실성을 고려한 추계학적 무장-표적 할당 문제 (Stochastic Weapon Target Assignment Problem under Uncertainty in Targeting Accuracy)

  • 이진호;신명인
    • 한국경영과학회지
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    • 제41권3호
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    • pp.23-36
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    • 2016
  • We consider a model that minimizes the total cost incurred by assigning available weapons to existing targets in order to reduce enemy threats, which is called the weapon target assignment problem (WTAP). This study addresses the stochastic versions of WTAP, in which data, such as the probability of destroying a target, are given randomly (i.e., data are identified with certain probability distributions). For each type of random data or parameter, we provide a stochastic optimization model on the basis of the expected value or scenario enumeration. In particular, when the probabilities of destroying targets depending on weapons are stochastic, we present a stochastic programming formulation with a simple recourse. We show that the stochastic model can be transformed into a deterministic equivalent mixed integer programming model under a certain discrete probability distribution of randomness. We solve the stochastic model to obtain an optimal solution via the mixed integer programming model and compare this solution with that of the deterministic model.

Bayesian Optimization Analysis of Containment-Venting Operation in a Boiling Water Reactor Severe Accident

  • Zheng, Xiaoyu;Ishikawa, Jun;Sugiyama, Tomoyuki;Maruyama, Yu
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제49권2호
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    • pp.434-441
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    • 2017
  • Containment venting is one of several essential measures to protect the integrity of the final barrier of a nuclear reactor during severe accidents, by which the uncontrollable release of fission products can be avoided. The authors seek to develop an optimization approach to venting operations, from a simulation-based perspective, using an integrated severe accident code, THALES2/KICHE. The effectiveness of the containment-venting strategies needs to be verified via numerical simulations based on various settings of the venting conditions. The number of iterations, however, needs to be controlled to avoid cumbersome computational burden of integrated codes. Bayesian optimization is an efficient global optimization approach. By using a Gaussian process regression, a surrogate model of the "black-box" code is constructed. It can be updated simultaneously whenever new simulation results are acquired. With predictions via the surrogate model, upcoming locations of the most probable optimum can be revealed. The sampling procedure is adaptive. Compared with the case of pure random searches, the number of code queries is largely reduced for the optimum finding. One typical severe accident scenario of a boiling water reactor is chosen as an example. The research demonstrates the applicability of the Bayesian optimization approach to the design and establishment of containment-venting strategies during severe accidents.

A Campus Community-based Mobility Model for Routing in Opportunistic Networks

  • Pan, Daru;Fu, Min;Sun, Jiajia;Zou, Xin
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • 제10권3호
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    • pp.1034-1051
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    • 2016
  • Mobility models are invaluable for determining the performance of routing protocols in opportunistic networks. The movement of nodes has a significant influence on the topological structure and data transmission in networks. In this paper, we propose a new mobility model called the campus-based community mobility model (CBCNM) that closely reflects the daily life pattern of students on a real campus. Consequent on a discovery that the pause time of nodes in their community follows a power law distribution, instead of a classical exponential distribution, we abstract the semi-Markov model from the movement of the campus nodes and analyze its rationality. Then, using the semi-Markov algorithm to switch the movement of the nodes between communities, we infer the steady-state probability of node distribution at random time points. We verified the proposed CBCNM via numerical simulations and compared all the parameters with real data in several aspects, including the nodes' contact and inter-contact times. The results obtained indicate that the CBCNM is highly adaptive to an actual campus scenario. Further, the model is shown to have better data transmission network performance than conventional models under various routing strategies.

원자력발전소 모터제어반 스위치기어실 화재 모델링 입력변수 불확실성 분석 (Uncertainty Analysis of Fire Modeling Input Parameters for Motor Control Center in Switchgear Room of Nuclear Power Plants)

  • 강대일;양준언;유성연
    • 한국화재소방학회논문지
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    • 제26권2호
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    • pp.40-52
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    • 2012
  • 본 논문에서는 원자력발전소의 모터제어반 스위치기어실 화재 모델링에 대한 입력변수 불확실성 분석을 수행하였다. 화재모델링은 FDS 5.5를 사용하였고 FDS 입력변수 램던 샘플링은 라틴하이퍼쿠브 몬테칼로 방법을 이용하였다. 본 연구에서 수행한 입력변수 불확실성 분석 결과를 비교하기 위해 NUREG-1934의 화재모델링 결정론적 불확실성 분석과 민감도 분석 방법을 이용한 분석도 수행하였다. 분석결과, 본 연구의 모터제어반 스위치 기어룸 화재 모델링에 대한 입력변수 불확실성 분석방법이 NUREG-1934의 방법보다 보수적인 결과를 얻을 수 있음을 확인하였다.

TURBULENCE IN THE OUTSKIRTS OF THE MILKY WAY

  • Sanchez-Salcedo, F.J.;Santillan, A.;Franco, Jose
    • 천문학회지
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    • 제40권4호
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    • pp.171-177
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    • 2007
  • In external galaxies, the velocity dispersion of the atomic hydrogen gas shows a remarkably flat distribution with the galactocentric radius. This has been a long-standing puzzle because if the gas velocity dispersion is due to turbulence caused by supernova explosions, it should decline with radius. After a discussion on the role of spiral arms and ram pressure in driving interstellar turbulence in the outer parts of galactic disks, we argue that the constant bombardment by tiny high-velocity halo clouds can be a significant source of random motions in the outer disk gas. Recent observations of the flaring of H I in the Galaxy are difficult to explain if the dark halo is nearly spherical as the survival of the streams of tidal debris of Sagittarius dwarf spheroidal galaxy suggests. The radial enhancement of the gas velocity dispersion (at R > 25 kpc) due to accretion of cloudy gas might naturally explain the observed flaring in the Milky Way. Other motivations and implications of this scenario have been highlighted.

Seasonal Grouping in Year-Season Animal Model Evaluation of Sahiwal Cattle

  • Khan, M.S.;Ali, A.;Ali, S.;Saleem, M.
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • 제10권1호
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    • pp.75-78
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    • 1997
  • Season is very important as it defines the contemporaries for sire and cow evaluation. An attempt is made for defining season for animal model evaluation of Sahiwal animals, using 1,227 records from 730 cows. Cows were required to have a lactation length of 305-days. Ten different combinations of months for two, four, five or other seasons were tried. The other fixed effect in the model was age defined within parity. The random effects were permanent environment and animal's breeeding value along with the residual effects. A single trait animal model was used where all known relationships of an animal were incorporated in a relationship matrix. The error variance from the fitted model decreased as the number of year-season combinations increased, indicating a month-year model to be more appropriate. This, on the other hand, decreased the number of contemporaries for certain subclasses to a minimum of one, making the bull comparisons invalid. Use of a two season scenario, with winter (November through February) and summer (March through October) was better than the other combinations in terms of error variance of the fitted model and the number of lactations represented in any year-season subclass.

Many-to-One Encryption and Authentication Scheme and Its Application

  • Lin, Xi-Jun;Wu, Chuan-Kun;Liu, Feng
    • Journal of Communications and Networks
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    • 제10권1호
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    • pp.18-27
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    • 2008
  • This paper is to study a subclass of group-oriented cryptographic scheme: Many-to-one encryption and authentication scheme. The many-to-one encryption and authentication scheme is to solve a practical problem, i.e., the scenario that the number of the receivers is very small compared with the number of the senders and a receiver may serve millions of senders. Compared with the traditional methods, the burdens of the receiver and the KGC are reduced greatly. How to revoke a sender from his receiver's legitimate sender group is also proposed and it is efficient compared with some traditional methods. The proposed scheme is proven in the random oracle models. The computational complexity of our scheme is independent of the number of the senders. At the end of the paper, an example is given to show how to use our scheme in online software registration and update.

몬테카를로 시뮬레이션을 이용한 직접부하제어의 제어지원금 산정 (Determination of Incentive Level of Direct Load Control using Monte Carlo Simulation with Variance Reduction Technique)

  • 정윤원;박종배;신중린;채명석
    • 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한전기학회 2004년도 하계학술대회 논문집 A
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    • pp.666-670
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    • 2004
  • This paper presents a new approach for determining an accurate incentive levels of Direct Load Control (DLC) program using sequential Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) techniques. The economic analysis of DLC resources needs to identify the hourly-by-hourly expected energy-not-served resulting from the random outage characteristics of generators as well as to reflect the availability and duration of DLC resources, which results the computational explosion. Therefore, the conventional methods are based on the scenario approaches to reduce the computation time as well as to avoid the complexity of economic studies. In this paper, we have developed a new technique based on the sequential MCS to evaluate the required expected load control amount in each hour and to decide the incentive level satisfying the economic constraints. And also the proposed approach has been considered multi-state as well as two-state of the generating units. In addition, we have applied the variance reduction technique to enhance the efficiency of the simulation. To show the efficiency and effectiveness of the suggested method the numerical studies have been performed for the modified IEEE reliability test system.

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유조선 좌초 사고 시 2차사고 방지를 위한 잔류강도 평가기술 개발 (Development of an Empirical Formula for Residual Strength Assessment to Prevent Sequential Events of Grounded Oil Tankers)

  • 백승준;김상진;백점기;손정민
    • 대한조선학회논문집
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    • 제56권3호
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    • pp.263-272
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    • 2019
  • The aim of this study is to develop a rapid calculation technique of the residual strength in order to prevent sequential events under grounding accidents. Very Large Crude-Oil Carrier (VLCC), Suezmax, and Aframax double hull oil tankers carrying large quantities of crude oil were selected for target structures. The rock geometries are chosen from the published regulation by Marine Pollution Treaty (MARPOL) of the International Maritime Organization (IMO). Oceanic rocks as the most frequently encountered obstruction with ships are applied in this work. Damage condition was predicted using ALPS/HULL program based on grounding scenario with selected parameters, i.e. depth of penetration, damage location and tanker type. The results of the scenarios are quantified to form an empirical formula which can evaluate the residual strength. The proposed formula is validated by applying a series of random grounding scenarios.