• Title/Summary/Keyword: quantitative risk analysis

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Analysis and Quantitative Estimation of Risk Factors of Design-Build (턴키 프로젝트에서 리스크요인 분석 및 정량적 평가)

  • Oh, Guk-Yeol;Lee, Young-Dai
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.13 no.5
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    • pp.12-24
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    • 2012
  • The Risks in undertaking a construction project comes from many sources and often involves many participants in the project. This study has identified various kinds of risks, assessed the risk factors quantitatively and suggested risk management method for response pertinent in Design Build(Turn Key)type of projects in Korean context. A questionnaire was designed comprising of 145 possible risks in all types of construction projects. The population from owner, consultant and contractor groups was asked to indicate the risks applicable in DB projects. 25 numbers of critical risks in DB projects were identified and further analyzed for reveling inherent relationship between them through factor analysis. Factor analysis revealed 8 risk factors in DB projects. Construction site related, contract related and design related risk factor consisted about 72% of total risk weight. It has been found out about 6%, while considering the mutual dependency, it is about 10% of total cost of DB project. Therefore, It is suggested that 6% to 10% of construction amount as contingency has to be made provision for risk responses in the DB projects.

A Study on Quantitative Risk Analysis & Model Application for Hydrogen Filling Center (수소충전시설에 대한 정량적 위험성 평가 및 모델적용에 관한 연구)

  • Shin, Jung-Soo;Byun, Hun-Soo
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.16 no.6
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    • pp.87-101
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    • 2012
  • In gas industries, the potential risks of serious accidents have been increased due to high technology application and process complexities. Especially, in case of gas-related accidents, the extent of demage is out of control since gas plants handle and produce combustible, flammable, explosive and toxic materials in large amounts. The characteristics of this kind of disaster is that accident frequency is low, while the impact of damage is high, extending to the neighboring residents, environment and related industries as well as employees involved. The hydrogen gases treated important things and it used the basic material of chemical plants and industries. Since 2000, this gas stood in the spotlight the substitution energy for reduction of the global warming in particular however it need to compress high pressure(more than 150 bar.g) and store by using the special cylinders due to their low molecular weight. And this gas led to many times the fire and explosion due to leak of it. To reduce these kinds of risks and accidents, it is necessary to improve the new safety management system through a risk management after technically evaluating potential hazards in this process. This study is to carry out the quantitative risk assesment for hydrogen filling plant which are very dangerous(fire and explosive) and using a basic materials of general industries. As a results of this risk assessment, identified the elements important for safety(EIS) and suggested the practical management tools and verified the reliability of this risk assessment model through case study of accident.

Toxicokinetic and Toxicodynamic Models for Ecological Risk Assessment (생태위해성 평가를 위한 독성동태학 및 독성역학 모델)

  • Lee, Jong-Hyeon
    • Environmental Analysis Health and Toxicology
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.79-93
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    • 2009
  • 오염물질에 대한 생태위해성평가(ecological risk assessment)를 위해서는 노출평가(exposure assessment)와 함께 생물영향에 대한 평가(effect assessment)를 수행해야 한다. 노출평가의 경우는 지화학적 과정에 대한 이해를 바탕으로 환경농도를 예측하기 위한 화학평형모델이나 다매체환경거동모델 등 다양한 평가 및 예측모델을 활용해 왔다. 이와 달리 생물영향평가는 실험실 조건에서 제한된 독성자료를 대상으로 외부노출농도에 기반한 농도-반응관계를 통계적 방법을 통해서 추정하는 '경험적 모델(empirical model)'에 주로 의존해 왔다. 최근에 와서 생체 내 잔류량을 기반으로 농도-시간-반응관계를 기술하고 예측하는 독성동태학 및 독성역학 모델(toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic model)과 같은 독성작용에 기반한 모델(processbased model)들이 개발되어 활용되고 있다. 본 논문에서는 여러 종류의 독성동태학 및 독성역학 모델을 소개하고, 이를 통계적 추론에 기반한 전통적인 독성학 모델과 비교하였다. 서로 다른 종류의 독성동태학 및 독성역학 모델로부터 도출된 노출농도-시간 -반응관계식을 비교하고, 동일 독성기작을 보이는 오염물질 그룹 내에서 미측정 오염물질의 독성을 예측할 수 있게 해주는 구조-활성관계(Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationship, QSAR) 모델을 여러 독성동태 및 독성역학모델로부터 유도하였다. 마지막으로 독성동태학 및 독성역학 파라미터를 추정하기 위한 실험계획을 제안하였고, 앞으로 독성동태학 및 독성역학 모델을 생태계 위해성평가에 활용하기 위해서 해결해야 될 연구과제를 검토하였다.

Probabilistic Risk Analysis of Dropped Objects for Corroded Subsea Pipelines (부식을 고려한 해저 파이프라인의 확률론적 중량물 낙하 충돌 위험도 해석)

  • Kumar, Ankush;Seo, Jung Kwan
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.55 no.2
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    • pp.93-102
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    • 2018
  • Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) has been used in shipping and offshore industries for many years, supporting the decision-making process to guarantee safe running at different stages of design, fabrication and throughout service life. The assessments of a risk perspective are informed by the frequency of events (probability) and the associated consequences. As the number of offshore platforms increases, so does the length of subsea pipelines, thus there is a need to extend this approach and enable the subsea industry to place more emphasis on uncertainties. On-board operations can lead to objects being dropped on subsea pipelines, which can cause leaks and other pipeline damage. This study explains how to conduct hit frequency analyses of subsea pipelines, using historical data, and how to obtain a finite number of scenarios for the consequences analysis. An example study using probabilistic methods is used.

A Development of Quantitative Risk Analysis Tool for System Unit (시스템 단위의 정량적 위험분석 도구 개발)

  • 박현우;방영환;이강수
    • Proceedings of the Korean Information Science Society Conference
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    • 2003.10a
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    • pp.871-873
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    • 2003
  • 정보시스템의 위험을 관리하기 위해서는 위험을 식별 및 측정하는 위험분석이 선행되어야 한다 본 논문에서는 위험수준 평가, 보안대책에 의한 위험감소 및 잔여위험 분석이 가능한 정량적 위험분석 방법을 제안하며, 이를 적용한 위험분석 도구를 설계 및 구현하여 보인다.

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Analysis of Damage Range and Impact of On-Site Hydrogen Fueling Station Using Quantitative Risk Assessment Program (Hy-KoRAM) (정량적 위험성평가 프로그램(Hy-KoRAM)을 이용한 제조식 수소충전소 피해범위 및 영향 분석)

  • KIM, HYELIM;KANG, SEUNGKYU
    • Journal of Hydrogen and New Energy
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    • v.31 no.5
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    • pp.459-466
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    • 2020
  • As the hydrogen industry grows, expansion of infrastructure for hydrogen supply is required, but the safety of hydrogen facilities is concerned due to the recent accidents at the Gangneung hydrogen tank and the Norwegian hydrogen fueling station. In this study, the damage range and impact analysis on the on-site hydrogen fueling station was conducted using Hy-KoRAM. This is a domestically developed program that adds functions based on HyRAM. Through this risk assessment, it was evaluated whether the on-site hydrogen fueling station meets international standards and suggested ways to improve safety.

Bootstrap simulation for quantification of uncertainty in risk assessment

  • Chang, Ki-Yoon;Hong, Ki-Ok;Pak, Son-Il
    • Korean Journal of Veterinary Research
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    • v.47 no.2
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    • pp.259-263
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    • 2007
  • The choice of input distribution in quantitative risk assessments modeling is of great importance to get unbiased overall estimates, although it is difficult to characterize them in situations where data available are too sparse or small. The present study is particularly concerned with accommodation of uncertainties commonly encountered in the practice of modeling. The authors applied parametric and non-parametric bootstrap simulation methods which consist of re-sampling with replacement, in together with the classical Student-t statistics based on the normal distribution. The implications of these methods were demonstrated through an empirical analysis of trade volume from the amount of chicken and pork meat imported to Korea during the period of 1998-2005. The results of bootstrap method were comparable to the classical techniques, indicating that bootstrap can be an alternative approach in a specific context of trade volume. We also illustrated on what extent the bias corrected and accelerated non-parametric bootstrap method produces different estimate of interest, as compared by non-parametric bootstrap method.

A Study on Standard Process of Risk Management for Defense Systems Test Works (무기체계 시험업무에 대한 리스크 관리 표준 프로세스 연구)

  • Taeheum Na;Dongeun Heo;Youngmin Kim;Jooyeoun Lee
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.364-374
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    • 2024
  • Today, risks created by uncertainty must be managed for successful project execution. From this perspective, applying a risk management process is very important for successful defense systems test works. This paper describes 'the implentation of risk management process for test work' carried out by DTERI's process improvement activities. In this study, the concept of risk management process, and details of the risk management process are examined through PMBOK and ISO/IEC/IEEE 15288, CMMI. After that, we defined 'Standard Process for Risk Management' of defence systems test works. And, we describe 'Risk Management Function' of DTERI's Project Management System(PMS) and the risk management process of DTERI. Finally, the effectiveness of the risk management standard process is verified through quantitative analysis.