• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2022년도 학술발표회
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• pp.442-442
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• 2022

고해상도 시공간적 격자 형태의 레이더 강수는 돌발홍수(flash flood)와 같은 기상재해에 대비하기 위하여 실시간 예측정보로 활용된다. 그러나 대부분의 레이더 강수는 과소 추정되는 경향이 있어 정량적인 보정 과정인 QPE (Quantitative Precipitation Estimation)가 필요하다. 일반적으로 레이더 강수자료 보정은 지점 관측자료를 활용하지만, 본 연구에서는 지상 강수량 기반의 고해상도 격자 강수자료를 생산하여 레이더 강수자료와 직접적으로 비교하고자 한다. 이에 고도와 지형적 특성을 고려한 PRISM(Precipitation-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model) 방법을 사용하여 고해상도 격자기반의 자료를 생성하였다. PRISM 방법은 고도와 지리정보를 독립변수로 갖는 회귀모형 기반의 기후인자 추정 모형이다. 생산된 고해상도 격자 강수자료와 레이더 강수자료를 QPF (Quantitative Precipitation Forecast) 모델의 입력자료로 사용하여 예측결과를 비교하였다. 해당 QPF 모델은 이류(advection)와 확률론적 섭동(stochastic perturbation)을 기반으로 하며, 강수 앙상블 자료를 생산한다. QPF 모델에 대해 투 트랙(two-track) 방법으로 생산된 예측정보를 통해 레이더 강수자료의 격자별 후처리 보정이 가능할 것으로 판단된다.

• 대기
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• 제21권2호
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• pp.197-208
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• 2011

The objective of this study is to describe the short-range forecast system of the Korea Air Force (KAF) and to verificate its performace in 2009 summer. The KAF weather prediction model system, based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (i.e., the KAF-WRF), is configured with a parent domain overs East Asia and two nested domains with the finest horizontal grid size of 2 km. Each domain covers the Korean peninsula and South Korea, respectively. The model is integrated for 84 hour 4 times a day with the initial and boundary conditions from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) data. A quantitative verification system is constructed for the East Asia and Korean peninsula domains. Verification variables for the East Asia domain are 500 hPa temperature, wind and geopotential height fields, and the skill score is calculated using the difference between the analysis data from the NCEP GFS model and the forecast data of the KAF-WRF model results. Accuracy of precipitation for the Korean penisula domain is examined using the contingency table that is made of the KAF-WRF model results and the KMA (Korea Meteorological Administraion) AWS (Automatic Weather Station) data. Using the verification system, the operational model and parallel model with updated version of the WRF model and improved physics process are quantitatively evaluated for the 2009 summer. Over the East Aisa region, the parallel experimental model shows the better performance than the operation model. Errors of the experimental model in 500 hPa geopotential height near the Tibetan plateau are smaller than errors in the operational model. Over the Korean peninsula, verification of precipitation prediction skills shows that the performance of the operational model is better than that of the experimental one in simulating light precipitation. However, performance of experimental one is generally better than that of operational one, in prediction.

• 한국항만경제학회지
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• 제40권1호
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• pp.15-30
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• 2024

이 연구는 내항 해기사 인력 부족 문제가 성공적으로 해결될 수 있도록 내항 선박 척수와 해기사 현황을 고찰하고, 선박규모별 척수를 예측하여 선박직원법상의 선박 규모별 승무정원을 적용하여 내항 해기사 인력 수요를 급수별로 예측하였다. 인력 공급은 Markov모형을 활용하여 항해사와 기관사의 연도별 이직 및 퇴직 인원과 신규 진입 및 외부 전입인원수를 반영하여 예측하였다. 내항 해기사 인력 수요는 2023년 6,057명, 2030년 7,079명으로 증가하고, 공급은 2023년 5,771명, 2030년 5,130명으로 예측되어 인력부족이 심화되는 것으로 나타났다. 이 연구는 내항 해기사의 하급 해기사 부족과 고령화의 고용실태를 반영하고 정량적 분석을 통해 인력 수요와 공급을 정확히 예측하고, 5급 및 6급의 하급면허 해기사 인력 확충 필요성을 제시함으로써 내항해운의 해기사 인력 부족 문제를 해결하는데 유용한 자료로 활용될 수 있을 것이다.

• 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
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• 제7권2호
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• pp.215-226
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• 2006

A conceptual system dynamics model is developed to represent the dynamic mechanism between the number of hepatitis B virus and the defense system of the body. The simulation results shows that the model behaves within the reasonable ranges. The developed conceptual model is a first attempt to quantify the dynamic mechanisms of the hepatitis B virus, where only feedback structures are considered without bio-organism data. The next step would be to incorporate the model with bio-organism theory and to carry out case studies to identify personal characteristics. Since the current model is a conceptual model where quantitative results are not based on the sound background, the usage is limited only within the qualitative basis. It could be a effective educational tool for the patients. It also shows what-to-do lists in order to be used for forecast purposes.

• 한국유기농업학회지
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• 제24권2호
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• pp.189-200
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• 2016

The objective of this study is to introduce a program for environmental conservation in environment-friendly agriculture. For this, we first analyze a performance condition of environment-friendly agricultural districts and zones. And then we survey difficulties on implementation and main points for spread of environment-friendly agriculture. Finally we forecast an effectiveness and realizability on program for environmental conservation in environment-friendly agriculture. As a result, it is necessary to plan policies on qualitative as well as quantitative growth in environment-friendly agriculture. The results of this study will be meaningful to make policies on spread of environment-friendly agriculture.

• Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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• 제12권1_2호
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• pp.233-241
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• 2003

The rolling schedule procedure has been an important part of the Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) systems. The performance of production planning in an ERP system depends on the selection of the three parameters in rolling schedule procedure: frozen interval, replanning interval, and planning horizon (forecast window). This research investigated, in a theoretical approach, the combined impact of selections of those three parameters. The proven mathematical theorems provided guidance to re-duction of instability (nervousness) and to seek the optimal balance between stability and responsiveness of ERP systems. Further the theorems are extended to incorporate the cost structure.

• 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
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• 제1권1호
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• pp.103-131
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• 2000

If a system such as a port has a large boundary and complexity, and the system's substance is considered as a black box, forecast accuracy will be very low. Futhermore various components in a port exert significant influence on each other. To copy with these problem the form of structure models were introduced by using SD method. The Competitive Ports Model had several sub-systems consisting of each Unit Port models, and each Unit Port model was made by quantitative, qualitative factors and their feedback loops. The fact that all components of one port have influence on the components of the other ports should be taken into account to construct Competitive Port Models. However, with the current approach that is impossible, and in this paper therefore, models were simplified by HFP adapted to integrate level variables of unit port models. Although many studies on modelling of port competitive situation have been conducted, both theoretical frame and methodology are still very weak. In this study, a new algorithm called ESD(Extensional System Dynamics) for the evaluation of port competition was presented, and applied to simulate port systems in northeast asia.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2010년도 학술발표회
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• pp.1625-1629
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• 2010

효율적인 장기 수자원 운영을 위하여 미래의 강수량을 예측하는 것은 중요하다. 특히 월 또는 계절단위의 강수량의 정량적인 예측이 필요하다. 우리나라에서는 기상청에서 향후 3개월의 강수량과 온도에 대하여 정성적으로 예측을 하고 있다. 정성적인 예측은 적음과 많음만을 나타내어 정보를 활용하기에 많은 제약이 있다. 기상수치모형을 통한 예측의 경우 월간과 같은 시간스케일에서 정량적인 예측이 가능하나 예측 정확도가 떨어지는 문제로 인하여, 일반적으로 정성적인 예측을 하고 있다. 이런 문제점을 극복하고자 본 연구에서는 기상수치모형을 이용하지 않고 시계열 모형을 이용하여 월강수량을 예측하고자 한다. 기존의 통계학에서 사용되는 시계열 모형과 자기학습모형 등을 이용하여 정량적인 월 강수량을 예측하는 다양한 모형을 구성하고, 각 모형의 적용성을 평가하고자 한다.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• 제9권4호
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• pp.1196-1201
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• 2014

This paper presents an exploration on the effect of wind turbine contribution to the frequency control of individual systems that can be used for efficient power production in India. The research includes the study of Permanent Magnet Synchronous Generator (PMSG), in wind farms. The WTs are tested for inertia and for droop responses with intelligent fuzzy logic controllers (FLC) that choose Double Input Single Output (DISO) strategy that automatically sets gain constants, as well as combined responses for the WTs. Quantitative analyses are presented for the WTs for benefits and drawbacks including appropriate selection parameters. The analysis includes inertia, droop and combined inertia, droop schemes. The reconnaissance also incorporates inertia with FLC, droop with FLC, inertia and droop with FLC schemes for detailed study of WTs, so as to forecast and achieve proper frequency control. Moreover, the analysis provides the best suited method for frequency control in PMSG.

• 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국방재학회 2008년도 정기총회 및 학술발표대회
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• pp.683-686
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• 2008

Flood damage has been increased due to the abnormal climate and extreme rainfall. So, quantitative and qualitative hydrologic data should be improved in oder to enhance accuracy of hydrologic forecast. However, research regarding hydrologic data have not been thorough enough. Therefore, in this study, monte carlo simulation was applied to rainfall runoff model to improve the reliability of runoff analysis and risk analysis. Rainfall-Stage-Discharge curve was developed as a consequence of MCS and it is possible to get correct rating curve for high water level.