• Title/Summary/Keyword: public opinion poll

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Analysis of public opinion in the 20th presidential election using YouTube data (유튜브 데이터를 활용한 20대 대선 여론분석)

  • Kang, Eunkyung;Yang, Seonuk;Kwon, Jiyoon;Yang, Sung-Byung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.161-183
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    • 2022
  • Opinion polls have become a powerful means for election campaigns and one of the most important subjects in the media in that they predict the actual election results and influence people's voting behavior. However, the more active the polls, the more often they fail to properly reflect the voters' minds in measuring the effectiveness of election campaigns, such as repeatedly conducting polls on the likelihood of winning or support rather than verifying the pledges and policies of candidates. Even if the poor predictions of the election results of the polls have undermined the authority of the press, people cannot easily let go of their interest in polls because there is no clear alternative to answer the instinctive question of which candidate will ultimately win. In this regard, we attempt to retrospectively grasp public opinion on the 20th presidential election by applying the 'YouTube Analysis' function of Sometrend, which provides an environment for discovering insights through online big data. Through this study, it is confirmed that a result close to the actual public opinion (or opinion poll results) can be easily derived with simple YouTube data results, and a high-performance public opinion prediction model can be built.

Measuring the Third-Person Effects of Public Opinion Polls: Focusing On Online Polls (여론조사보도에 대한 제3자효과 검증: 온라인 여론조사를 주목하며)

  • Kim, Sung-Tae;Willnat, Las;Weaver, David
    • Korean journal of communication and information
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    • v.32
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    • pp.49-73
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    • 2006
  • During the past decades, public opinion polls have become an ubiquitous tool for probing the complexity of people's beliefs and attitudes on a wide variety of issues. Especially since the late 1970s, the use of polls by news organizations has increased dramatically. Along with the proliferation of traditional polls, in the past few years pollsters and news organizations have come to recognize the advantages of online polls. Increasingly there has been more effort to take the pulse of the public through the Internet. With the Internet's rapid growth during the past years, advocates of online polling often emphasize the relative advantages over traditional polls. Researchers from Harris Black International Ltd., for example, argue that "Internet polling is less expensive and faster and offers higher response rates than telephone surveys." Moreover, since many of the newer online polls draw respondents from large databases of registered Internet users, results of online polls have become more balanced. A series of Harris Black online polls conducted during the 1998 gubernatorial and senatorial elections, for example, has accurately projected the winners in 21 of the 22 races it tracked. Many researchers, however, severely criticize online polls for not being representative of the larger population. Despite the often enormous number of participants, Internet users who participate in online polls tend to be younger, better educated and more affluent than the general population. As Traugott pointed out, the people polled in Internet surveys are a "self selected" group, and thus "have volunteered to be part of the test sample, which could mean they are more comfortable with technology, more informed about news and events ... than Americans who aren't online." The fact that users of online polls are self selected and demographically very different from Americans who have no access to the Internet is likely to influence the estimates of what the majority of people think about social or political issues. One of the goals of this study is therefore to analyze whether people perceive traditional and online public opinion polls differently. While most people might not differentiate sufficiently between traditional random sample polls and non representative online polls, some audiences might perceive online polls as more useful and representative. Since most online polls allow some form of direct participation, mostly in the form of an instant vote by mouse click, and often present their findings based on huge numbers of respondents, consumers of these polls might perceive them as more accurate, representative or reliable than traditional random sample polls. If that is true, perceptions of public opinion in society could be significantly distorted for those who rely on or participate in online polls. In addition to investigating how people perceive random sample and online polls, this study focuses on the perceived impact of public opinion polls. Similar to these past studies, which focused on how public opinion polls can influence the perception of mass opinion, this study will analyze how people perceive the effects of polls on themselves and other people. This interest springs from prior studies of the "third person effect," which have found that people often tend to perceive that persuasive communications exert a stronger influence on others than on themselves. While most studies concerned with the political effects of public opinion polls show that exit polls and early reporting of election returns have only weak or no effects on the outcome of election campaigns, some empirical findings suggest that exposure to polls can move people's opinions both toward and away from perceived majority opinion. Thus, if people indeed believe that polls influence others more than themselves, perceptions of majority opinion could be significantly altered because people might anticipate that others will react more strongly to poll results.

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황금비에 대한 통계적 고찰

  • 차경준;박영선;박진희
    • Journal for History of Mathematics
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.105-120
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    • 2000
  • In this study, it is certified that the golden ratio exists in the plants, the animals and human bodies(appearance), and is considered how much the ratio of positive and negative is in the psychological, political, social and cultural aspects. The result of this study shows that the golden sections or golden rectangles of the plants(N=58), the insects(N=44), the animals(N=21) and human bodies(N=260) are equal to $0.620{\pm}0.117$, $0.632{\pm}0.203$, $0.625{\pm}0.138$ and $0.60{\pm}0.169$, respectively. The slope in the regression analysis is equal to 0.627(R-square=0.925, p-value=0.0001). Whereas, for the public opinion poll, the ratios($mean{\pm}st.dev.$) of positive and negative of the public mental phenomena are equal to $0.508{\pm}0.179$, $0.808{\pm}0.216$ and $0.711{\pm}0.128$ in the political, economical, and sociocultural aspects, respectively. The slope in the regression is equal to 0.674(R-square=0.764, p-value=0.016). As results, we show that the golden ratio exists in the plants, the animals and human bodies in nature. This shows that the public mental phenomena has some more negative aspects than positive aspects and explains the shrinkage of the public mental phenomena in the economical field.

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Prediction improvement of election polls by unstructured data analysis (비정형 데이터 분석을 통한 선거 여론조사 예측력 개선 방안 연구)

  • Park, Sunbin;Kim, Myung Joon
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.31 no.5
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    • pp.655-665
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    • 2018
  • Social network services (SNS) have become the most common tool for the communication of public and private opinions as well as public issues; consequently, one may form or drive public opinions to advocate by spreading positive content using SNS. Controversy for survey data based opinion poll accuracy continues in relation to response rate or sampling methodology. This study suggests complementary measures that additionally consider the sentiment analysis results of unstructured data on a social network by data crawling and sentiment dictionary adjustment process. The suggested method shows the improvement of prediction accuracy by decreasing error rates.

The Present and Future of Research Industry in Korea (우리날 조사산업의 현황과 전망)

  • 박무익
    • Proceedings of the Korean Association for Survey Research Conference
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    • 2000.06a
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    • pp.161-177
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    • 2000
  • Research industry in Korea has shown remarkable development in the past decade, mainly owing to the fact that the confidence level on the research itself has been largely improved as the major predictions based on poll result hit the mark in the past presidential elections, and also the change of management style in Korean business based on the rational decision making process. In the article, I will analyze the change of Korean\\\\`s behavior toward public opinion research in diachronic manner and show the number and activities of Research Organizations in order to look into the present condition of research industry and then think about the future and the desirable direction of Korea research industry.

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The Present and Future of Research Industry in Korea (우리나라 조사산업의 현황과 전망)

  • Park, Moo-Ik
    • Survey Research
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    • v.1 no.2
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    • pp.161-177
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    • 2000
  • Research industry in Korea has shown remarkable development in the past decade, mainly owing to the fact that the confidence level on the research itself has been largely improved as the major predictions based on poll result hit the mark in the past presidential elections, and also the change of management style in Korean business based on the rational decision making process. In this article, I will analyze the change of Koreans behavior toward public opinion research in diachronic manner and show the number and activities of Research Organizations in order to look into the present condition of research industry and then think about the future and the desirable direction of Korean research industry.

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A Suggestion on Instruction Service Quality Assessment Tool (강의 서비스품질 측정도구 제안)

  • Choi Kyoung-Ho;Lee Seung-Joo
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.487-497
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    • 2005
  • The instruction assessment, which can be a tool to realize a class of high quality, evaluates instruction system and process. The result data of the instruction assessment is analysed and used to reorganize lecture contents or to improve teaching method. It enhances qualitative level of university education. The goal of the instruction assessment is to be a tool that provides high qualitative education to raise students' satisfaction. It is important to improve education service quality through instruction assessment as a useful tool for measuring service quality. The suggestion of valid tool for improving instruction service quality is described in this paper.

Election Prediction on Basis of Sentimental Analysis in 3rd World Countries

  • Bilal, Hafiz Syed Muhammad;Razzaq, Muhammad Asif;Lee, Sungyoung
    • Proceedings of the Korea Information Processing Society Conference
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    • 2014.11a
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    • pp.928-931
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    • 2014
  • The detection of human behavior from social media revolutionized health, business, criminal and political prediction. Significance of it, in incentive transformation of public opinion had already proven for developed countries in improving democratic process of elections. In $3^{rd}$ World countries, voters poll votes for personal interests being unaware of party manifesto or national interest. These issues can be addressed by social media, resulting as ongoing process of improvement for presently adopted electoral procedures. On the optimistic side, people of such countries applied social media to garner support and campaign for political parties in General Elections. Political leaders, parties, and people empowered themselves with social media, in disseminating party's agenda and advocacy of party's ideology on social media without much campaigning cost. To study effectiveness of social media inferred from individual's political behavior, large scale analysis, sentiment detection & tweet classification was done in order to classify, predict and forecast election results. The experimental results depicts that social media content can be used as an effective indicator for capturing political behaviors of different parties positive, negative and neutral behavior of the party followers as well as party campaign impact can be predicted from the analysis.

The 2018 US Midterm Elections and the Latino Voting: Diversity and Change (미국의 2018년 중간선거와 라티노 투표: 다양성과 변화)

  • Lee, Byung-Jae
    • Korean Journal of Legislative Studies
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.5-44
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    • 2019
  • The 2018 midterm elections were considered a referendum for Trump Presidency, especially because Latino community has been feeling that the anti-immigration, anti-Latino policies of Trump administration are harmful to the community. News Media and pundits predicted the boost of the Latino turnout and its positive effects on Democratic candidates at all levels. The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of Latino demographics and Latino public opinion and to analyze the election results with exit poll data and actual aggregate data. The data analysis shows that, compared to 2014 midterm elections, Latino turnout and the support for Democratic candidates actually increased in most counties and precincts, which is more salient in the areas with heavy Latino concentration.