• Title/Summary/Keyword: probit 분석

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Estimating Utility Function of In-Vehicle Traffic Safety Information Incorporating Driver's Short-Term Memory (운전자 단기기억 특성을 고려한 차내 교통안전정보의 효용함수 추정)

  • Kim, Won-Cheol;Fujiwara, Akimasa;Lee, Su-Beom
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.127-135
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    • 2009
  • Most traffic information that drivers receive while driving are stored in their short-term memory and disappear within a few seconds. Contemporary modeling approaches using a dummy variable can't fully explain this phenomenon. As such, this study proposes to use utility functions of real-time in-vehicle traffic safety information (IVTSI), analyzing its safety impacts based on empirical data from an on-site driving experiment at signalized intersection approach with a limited visibility. For this, a driving stability evaluation model is developed based on driver's driving speed choice, applying an ordered probit model. To estimate the specified utility functions, the model simultaneously accounts for various factors, such as traffic operation, geometry, road environment, and driver's characteristics. The results show three significant facts. First, a normal density function (exponential function) is appropriate to explain the utility of IVTSI proposed under study over time. Second, the IVTSI remains in driver's short-term memory for up to nearly 22 second after provision, decreasing over time. Three, IVTSI provision appears more important than the geometry factor but less than the traffic operation factor.

A Comparison of the Different Question Formats in the Contingent Valuation Method for the Evaluation of Recreational Benefit (휴양자원가치(休養資源價値) 평가(評價)를 위한 CVM 질문형(質問型) 비교(比較))

  • Kim, Joon-Soon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.88 no.3
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    • pp.400-407
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    • 1999
  • The purpose of thin paper is to test difference of the two question formats, open-ended and dichotomous choice formats, in the contingent valuation method using the estimated recreational benefits. The data were collected from the visitors at the Songnisan National Park. The recreational benefit based on the equivalent variation. The two question formats, but the same content, were asked of the same individuals. In this analysis, it was used travel cost and monthly income as the exogenous variables, which assumed a linear functional form for the WTP equation. The model assumed a bivariate normal distribution on the basis of the probit and tobit model concerning the censored zero WTP. The result showed no differences in the recreational benefits from the different question formats under a same respondent. The mean benefit was estimated 25.556 Won per 5 years per visitors.

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The Effects of Housework Responsibilities on the Women's Labor Force Participation and Their Wage Rates in the U.S. (미국여성의 가사노동책임이 취업성향과 임금에 미치는 영향)

  • 노명균
    • Journal of Families and Better Life
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.94-102
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    • 1995
  • 본 연구에서는 가사노동의 책임이 취업여성들의 임금수준에 어떠한 영향을 미치는 지를 연구하기 위해 가사노동의 책임이 거의 없는 미혼여성과 가사노동의 책임이 큰 기혼여 성사이의 취업성향과 임금수준을 비교분석하였다 미국의 NLS Young Women 데이터를 이 용하여 평균과 표준편차 및 백분율을 구하였고 Probit 분석과 최소자승법에 의한 희귀분석 을 SAS Program을 이용하여 분석하였다 가사노동책임관련변인은 기.미혼여성의 지속적인 전일제 근무자가 될 가능성에 별로 영향을 미치지 않는 것으로 나타났다 회귀분석결과 결혼 여부나 가사노동의 책임등은 임긍에 유의한 영향을 미치지 않았고 인적자본관련변인은 임금 에 긍적적인 효과가 있었으며 직업차별화변인은 여성지배직종에 근무하는 여성의 임금을 낮 추는 것으로 나타났다 본 연구결과 가사노동책임으로 인하여 기혼여성이 미혼여성보다 취업 하는 비율이 낮기는 하지만 그것을 취업주부의 임금이 낮아야하는 원인으로 보기에는 어렵 고 직업차별화가 여성들의 저임금의 이유일수있음을 알수 있다 따라서 여성 스스로 여성지 배직종을 선택하는지 그리고 그러한 결정에 의하여 낮은 임금을 받는지에 대새허는 후속연 구가 필요하리라 본다.

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순위 프로빗 모형을 활용한 정부연구개발투자 수혜 기업의 특성 분석

  • Lee, Dong-Uk
    • Proceedings of the Korea Technology Innovation Society Conference
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    • 2012.05a
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    • pp.45-53
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    • 2012
  • 본 연구에서는 정부의 R&D 투자를 받는 기업들의 특성을 규명하였다. 정부의 투자 행태를 반영하기 위해 순위 프로빗 모형(ordered probit)을 사용하였으며, 기업의 특성과 과제의 특성을 함께 고려함으로써 정부 정책의 실효성과 정합성을 분석하였다. 분석 결과 대기업, 매출액이 큰 기업, R&D집약도가 높은 기업, 벤처기업 등이 정부 R&D 투자를 많이 받는 것으로 나타났다. 기업특성과 과제 특성을 함께 분석한 결과, 중소기업이 신성장동력, 녹색기술 등에 대한 투자를 많이 받은 것으로 나타났다. 기업에 대한 투자가 개발연구 위주로 추진된 것은 합당하나, 대기업 중심, 성장기 기술 중심의 편중 현상은 개선의 여지가 있는 것으로 보인다.

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An Analysis on the Current Farm Management Record Practices and Characteristics (농업인의 경영기록 실태 및 특성 분석)

  • Lee, Sang-Hak;Choi, Se-Hyun;Son, Chan-Soo;Ha, Hyun-Jung
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.13 no.7
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    • pp.2937-2948
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    • 2012
  • Record-keeping is one of the most fundamental practices in good farm management as it shows a systemic managerial and analytic data essential for a successful farm operation. Despite such obvious benefits in record-keeping, however, today`s farmers do not take advantage of this practice for various reasons. To make the matter worse, not much research has been done to resolve this incompatibility. Therefore, it is urgent for both the government and the farmers to come up with a better method or book of record-keeping that will show the farmers where their operation has been in the past, where it is now, and where it is heading in the future. This study will survey and analyze the current status of record-keeping practice among farmers using statistic models such as logit and ordered probit model. The results showed that the majority of the farmers lack knowledge about management record. Also, appropriate record-keeping books and related education were not available. Therefore, the government should develop and provide farmers with record-keeping books that are easy to use and at the same time giving proper education about agricultural management skills. Finally, this study suggests some improvement plans about agricultural record-keeping based on the results drawn.

An Analysis on the Preference and Use-Demand Forecasting of Bus Information (버스정보의 선호도 및 이용수요 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Won Gyu;Jung, Hun Young
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.28 no.6D
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    • pp.791-799
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    • 2008
  • To build the system which has high utilization and usefulness for users, it is necessary to know the information type and use-demand that the use want. The purpose of this study is to forecast the preference and demand of utilization for bus information when bus information is offered through cellular phon. The accomplishments of this research are as follow : Firstly, importance on the level of individual factor and the value of change's figure can be evaluated, using preference analysis on bus information by conjoint analysis. Secondly, by establishing the use-demand model bus information using binary logit model, influence factor on whether or not the use of the user. Finally, ordered probit model was built by use behavior model in payment per call or per month of potential user of bus information. Through call times and sensitive analysis by payment methods, elasticity point, optimal payment fee, and use probability was analyzed. This study make application as basic to efficient bus information policy and to improve use rate of bus information in future because this study make it possible to get preference analysis, use-demand analysis and estimation of optimal payment fee which is reflecting various requirement in use of bus information user.

Comparative Study on Monetary Estimates of the Preservation Value of Recreational Forests through Contingent Valuation Methods (자연휴양림 보존가치 측정을 위한 조건부가치측정법(CVM) 추정액 비교)

  • Kang, Kee-Rae
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.38 no.2
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    • pp.25-36
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    • 2010
  • The generally known important functions of forests include air purification and the health benefits that humans can receive when relaxing and enjoying recreation in the forests. In recent years, people have appreciated the value of the natural environment but it is not easy to answer the question how much monetary value a natural environment has. Because environmental property is public property, which is not traded on the market, market prices cannot be established, so it is not easy to assess the currency value. Methods for estimating environmental property value have been studied by economists. The representative method for measuring environmental property value is a contingent valuation method, or CVM. Various methods have been researched and attempted along with the development and fusion of mathematics, statistics, and economics. Representative methods of CVM are single-bound and double-bound logit and probit methods. This study has been carried out to compare four estimates. Estimates are as follows: the lowest estimate is derived from a single-bound logit WTPmedian while the highest estimate is from double-bound probit WTPmean. While there are some preceding studies on price estimation and methods of measurement through CVM, they offer only partial comparisons. This study suggests four analytic methods and prices through 1,123 questionnaires. The results can be used for the subsequent comparison of estimate prices and the methods of measurement

Analysis on the Driving Safety and Investment Effect using Severity Model of Fatal Traffic Accidents (대형교통사고 심각도 모형에 의한 주행안전성 및 투자효과 분석)

  • Lim, Chang-Sik;Choi, Yang-Won
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.103-114
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    • 2011
  • In this study, we discuss a fatal accident severity model obtained from the analysis of 112 crash sites collected since 2000, and the resulting relationship between fatal accidents and roadway geometry design. From the 720 times computer simulations for improving driving safety, we then reached the following conclusions:. First, the result of cross and frequency-analyses on the car accident sites showed that 43.7% of the accidents occurred on the curved roads, 60.7% on the vertical curve section, 57.2% on the roadways with radius of curvature of 0 to 24m, 83.9% on the roads with superelevation of 0.1 to 2.0% and 49.1% on the one-way 2-lane roads; vehicle types involved are passenger vehicles (33.0%), trucks (20.5%) and buses (14.3%) in order of frequency. The results also show that the superelevation is the most influencing factor for the fatal accidents. Second, employing the Ordered Probit Model (OPM), we developed a severity model for fatal accidents being a function of on various road conditions so as to the damages can be predicted. The proposed model possibly assists the practitioners to predict dangerous roadway segments, and to take appropriate measures in advance. Third, computer simulation runs show that providing adequate superelevation on the segment where a fatal accident occurred could reduce similar fatal accidents by at least 85%. This result indicates that the regulations specified in the Rule for Road Structure and Facility Standard (description and guidelines) should be enhanced to include more specific requirement for providing the superelevation.

The Spatial Distribution Characteristics and Determinants of Strong Small Farm: Focusing on Apples (강소농의 공간적 분포특성과 결정요인 분석 -사과를 중심으로-)

  • Kim, Hyun Joong;Lee, Seong Woo
    • Journal of Agricultural Extension & Community Development
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.961-987
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    • 2012
  • The present study is to investigate the characteristics and determinants of spatial distribution of strong small farm by defining the term, strong small farm (SSF) extracting the SSF households data dealing with apples, from 2010 Census of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, Korea. Spatial distribution and concentration of SSF are analyzed based on spatial clustering techniques. We construct discrete dependent variables on strong and non-strong small farms and then analyze the determinants of the SSFs using probit model, with independent variables including population and economic characteristics and management characteristics. As of 2010, the apple SSFs, 1,529 households in total, are geographically concentrated in Gyeonsangbuk-do according to the analysis results. The determinants of SSF are similar to those of farms' earnings. When located in the apple producing area, and participating in producers organization while selling products directly, the farm is highly likely an SSF. The findings and results of the present study are expected to provide fundamental information helpful for preparing and implementing policies for SSFs in that the present study investigates the characteristics of SSF, which is a prerequisite step for SSF-related policies.

A Study on the Damage of Fireball by the Butane-Can Explosion (부탄 캔 파열로 인한 화구의 피해에 관한 연구)

  • Leem, Sa-Hwan;Huh, Yong-Jeong
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.110-116
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    • 2007
  • There have been 3E problems of energy, economy and environment since the earth has its history. Especially, as the industrial society is highly developing, human need in daily life has also changed drastically. With the introduction of 40 hour working week system, more households enjoy picnics on weekends. More gas accidents take place on Saturdays and on Sundays than any other days of week. Consequently, this study tries to find out the influence of flame caused by the explosion of butane canister on the adjacent combustibles and people by simulating relevant quantity of TNT. In addition, the damage estimation was conducted by using API regulations. If the scale of the radiation heat is known by calculating the distance of flame influence from the explosion site, the damage from the site can be easily estimated. And the accident damage was estimated by applying the influence on the adjacent structures and people into the PROBIT model. According to the pro bit analyze, the spot which is 50cm away from the flame has 97% of the damage probability by the first-degree burn, 8% of the damage probability by the second-degree burn and 4% of the death probability by the fire.