• Wind and Structures
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• v.22 no.1
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• pp.17-41
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• 2016

To address the uncertainty of the flight trajectories caused by the turbulence and gustiness of the wind field over the roof and in the wake of a building, a 3-D probabilistic trajectory model of flat-type wind-borne debris is developed in this study. The core of this methodology is a 6 degree-of-freedom deterministic model, derived from the governing equations of motion of the debris, and a Monte Carlo simulation engine used to account for the uncertainty resulting from vertical and lateral gust wind velocity components. The influence of several parameters, including initial wind speed, time step, gust sampling frequency, number of Monte Carlo simulations, and the extreme gust factor, on the accuracy of the proposed model is examined. For the purpose of validation and calibration, the simulated results from the 3-D probabilistic trajectory model are compared against the available wind tunnel test data. Results show that the maximum relative error between the simulated and wind tunnel test results of the average longitudinal position is about 20%, implying that the probabilistic model provides a reliable and effective means to predict the 3-D flight of the plate-type wind-borne debris.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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• v.27 no.4
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• pp.27-36
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• 2019

An accurate trajectory prediction is a key to the safe and efficient operations of aircraft. One way to improve trajectory prediction accuracy is to develop a model for aircraft ground speed prediction. This paper proposes a generative model for posterior aircraft ground speed prediction. The proposed method fits the Gaussian Mixture Model(GMM) to historical data of aircraft speed, and then the model is used to generates probabilistic speed profile of the aircraft. The performances of the proposed method are demonstrated with real traffic data in Incheon Flight Information Region(FIR).

• Journal of the Semiconductor & Display Technology
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• v.21 no.2
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• pp.1-6
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• 2022

This computational investigation of micro-sized particle dispersion concerns the fume particle contamination over target surface in high-precision laser line machining process of semiconductor and display device materials. Employing the random sampling based on probabilistic fume particle generation distributions, the effects of sphericity for nonspherical fume particles are analyzed for the fume particle dispersion and contamination near the laser machining line. The drag coefficient correlation for nonspherical particles in a low Reynolds number regime is selected and utilized for particle trajectory simulations after drag model validation. When compared to the corresponding results by the assumption of spherical fume particles, the sphericity of nonspherical fume particles show much less dispersion and contamination characteristics and it also significantly affects the particle removal rate in a suction air flow patterns.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.37 no.3
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• pp.245-258
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• 2005

This paper addresses two types of uncertainty: stochastic uncertainty and subjective uncertainty in probabilistic accident consequence assessments. The off-site consequence assessment code OSCAAR has been applied to uncertainty and sensitivity analyses on the individual risks of early fatality and latent cancer fatality in the population outside the plant boundary due to a severe accident. A new stratified meteorological sampling scheme was successfully implemented into the trajectory model for atmospheric dispersion and the statistical variability of the probability distributions of the consequence was examined. A total of 65 uncertain input parameters was considered and 128 runs of OSCAAR with 144 meteorological sequences were performed in the parameter uncertainty analysis. The study provided the range of uncertainty for the expected values of individual risks of early and latent cancer fatality close to the site. In the sensitivity analyses, the correlation/regression measures were useful for identifying those input parameters whose uncertainty makes an important contribution to the overall uncertainty for the consequence. This could provide valuable insights into areas for further research aiming at reducing the uncertainties.

• International Journal of Aeronautical and Space Sciences
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• v.11 no.4
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• pp.326-337
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• 2010

This work addresses problems regarding trajectory planning for unmanned aerial vehicle sensors. Such sensors are used for taking measurements of large nonlinear systems. The sensor investigations presented here entails methods for improving estimations and predictions of large nonlinear systems. Thoroughly understanding the global system state typically requires probabilistic state estimation. Thus, in order to meet this requirement, the goal is to find trajectories such that the measurements along each trajectory minimize the expected error of the predicted state of the system. The considerable nonlinearity of the dynamics governing these systems necessitates the use of computationally costly Monte-Carlo estimation techniques, which are needed to update the state distribution over time. This computational burden renders planning to be infeasible since the search process must calculate the covariance of the posterior state estimate for each candidate path. To resolve this challenge, this work proposes to replace the computationally intensive numerical prediction process with an approximate covariance dynamics model learned using a nonlinear time-series regression. The use of autoregressive time-series featuring a regularized least squares algorithm facilitates the learning of accurate and efficient parametric models. The learned covariance dynamics are demonstrated to outperform other approximation strategies, such as linearization and partial ensemble propagation, when used for trajectory optimization, in terms of accuracy and speed, with examples of simplified weather forecasting.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.29 no.3
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• pp.73-82
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• 2011

Recent advancement in traffic surveillance systems has allowed the researchers to obtain more detailed vehicular movement such as individual vehicle trajectory data. Understanding the characteristics of interactions between leading and following vehicles in the traffic flow stream is a backbone for designing and evaluating more sophisticated traffic and vehicle control strategies. This study proposes a methodology for estimating rear-end crash potential, as a probabilistic measure, in real-time based on the analysis of vehicular movements. The methodology presented in this study consists of three components. The first predicts vehicle position and speed every second using a Kalman filtering technique. The second estimates the probability for the vehicle's trajectory to belong to either 'changing lane' or 'going straight'. A binary logistic regression (BLR) is used to model the lane-changing decision of the subject vehicle. The other component calculates crash probability by employing an exponential decay function that uses time-to-collision (TTC) between the subject vehicle and the front vehicle. The result of this study is expected to be adapted in developing traffic control and information systems, in particular, for crash prevention.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• v.13 no.5
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• pp.2674-2697
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• 2019

Identity authentication is a crucial line of defense for network security, and passwords are still the mainstream of identity authentication. So far trawling password attacking has been extensively studied, but the research related with personal information is always sporadic. Probabilistic context-free grammar (PCFG) and Markov chain-based models perform greatly well in trawling guessing. In this paper we propose a systematic targeted attacking model based on structure partition and string reorganization by migrating the above two models to targeted attacking, denoted as TG-SPSR. In structure partition phase, besides dividing passwords to basic structure similar to PCFG, we additionally define a trajectory-based keyboard pattern in the basic grammar and introduce index bits to accurately characterize the position of special characters. Moreover, we also construct a BiLSTM recurrent neural network classifier to characterize the behavior of password reuse and modification after defining nine kinds of modification rules. Extensive experimental results indicate that in online attacking, TG-SPSR outperforms traditional trawling attacking algorithms by average about 275%, and respectively outperforms its foremost counterparts, Personal-PCFG, TarGuess-I, by about 70% and 19%; In offline attacking, TG-SPSR outperforms traditional trawling attacking algorithms by average about 90%, outperforms Personal-PCFG and TarGuess-I by 85% and 30%, respectively.

• Wind and Structures
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.191-206
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• 2010

Windborne debris is a major cause of structural damage during severe windstorms and hurricanes owing to its direct impact on building envelopes as well as to the 'chain reaction' failure mechanism it induces by interacting with wind pressure damage. Estimation of debris risk is an important component in evaluating wind damage risk to residential developments. A debris risk model developed by the authors enables one to analytically aggregate damage threats to a building from different types of debris originating from neighboring buildings. This model is extended herein to a general debris risk analysis methodology that is then incorporated into a vulnerability model accounting for the temporal evolution of the interaction between pressure damage and debris damage during storm passage. The current paper (Part I) introduces the debris risk analysis methodology, establishing the mathematical modeling framework. Stochastic models are proposed to estimate the probability distributions of debris trajectory parameters used in the method. It is shown that model statistics can be estimated from available information from wind-tunnel experiments and post-damage surveys. The incorporation of the methodology into vulnerability modeling is described in Part II.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.8-14
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• 2014

Arrival management is a tool which provides efficient flow of traffic and reduces ATC workload by determining aircraft's sequence and schedules while they are in cruise phase. As a decision support tool, arrival management should advise on air traffic control service based on the understanding of human factor of its user, air traffic controller. This paper proposed a prediction model for air traffic controller sequencing strategy by analyzing the historical trajectory data. Statistical analysis is used to find how air traffic controller decides the sequence of aircraft based on the speed difference and the airspace entering time difference of aircraft. Logistic regression was applied for the proposed model and its performance was demonstrated through the comparison of the real operational data.

• Journal of the Semiconductor & Display Technology
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.62-68
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• 2019

The optoelectronic display units such as TFT-LCD or OLED require many thin optical plastic films and their mass manufacturing processes employ CO2 laser cutting of those thin films in a large quantity. However, laser film cutting could generate fume particles through melt shearing, vaporization, and chemical degradation and those particles could be of great concern for film surface contamination. In order to appreciate the fume particle dispersion behaviors in laser film cutting, this study relies on random particle simulations by probabilistic distributions of particle size, ejection velocity and angles coupled with Basset-Boussinesq-Oseen model of particle trajectory in low Reynolds number flows. Here, up to one million particles of random sampling have been tested to effectively show fume particles dispersed on the film surface. The computational results could show that particular range of fume particle size could easily disperse into the pixel region of processed optical films.