• Journal of Korean Society of Steel Construction
• /
• v.11 no.4 s.41
• /
• pp.329-338
• /
• 1999

A systematic procedure to evaluate fatigue damages and to predict remaining fatigue lives is introduced for a steel railway bridge. Fatigue damages are evaluated by using the currently available fatigue damage theory. Fatigue lives with the condition of fatigue crack initiation are estimated by the probabilistic approach based on the reliability theory as well as the simplified procedure. A equivalent deterministic procedure is also suggested to assess the remaining fatigue life under various traffic conditions. Numerical simulations are used to assess dynamic stress histories with correction factors. Loading models are obtained from the passenger volume data. Train coincidences are also considered. Based on the results, the fatigue life is found to be underestimated by without considering the coincidence of trains on the bridge. The simplified method proposed in this study are found to yield approximately the same results as the systematic procedure.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
• /
• v.32 no.4
• /
• pp.389-400
• /
• 2014

This study finds a way to increase the usability of a subway commuter pass. Usability of the commuter pass on a probabilistic statistical model is calculated when the pass is allowed to used in a different mode(bus). A sunk cost of commuter pass is used to reduce the vehicle travels from public transit. 324 people aged 25 to 35 were surveyed and utilized to build a Nested Logit Model on STRADA 3.5 platform. Main results are as follows. First, commuter passes were issued in various forms. Second, the model turns out to be statistically significant in four explanatory variables (discount rate, inter-usablity between modes, forms of payment and periods). Lastly, the more valid on different modes, the more increased of the rail commuter pass.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
• /
• v.42 no.6
• /
• pp.433-443
• /
• 2009

For the better understanding of the temporal characteristics of soil water, this study is to suggest a stochastic soil water model and to apply it for impact assessment of climate change. The loss function is divided into 3 stages for more specified comprehension of the probabilistic behavior of soil water, and especially, the soil water model considering the stochastic characteristics of precipitation is developed in order to consider the variation of climatic factors. The simulation result of soil water model confirms that the proposed soil water model can re-generate the observation properly, and it also proves that the soil water behaves with consistent cycle based on the precipitation pattern. Moreover, with the simulation results with a climate change scenario, it can be predicted that the future soil water will have higher variations than present soil water.

• Korean Journal of Microbiology
• /
• v.47 no.3
• /
• pp.263-267
• /
• 2011

Genomic fingerprinting methods are useful in determining relatedness among bacterial strains. However, random coincidences in sizes of two DNA fragments in two different fingerprints may occur, resulting in erroneous interpretation of relatedness between two bacterial genomes. In this study, I estimated the probability of occurrence of DNA bands of identical size in fingerprints of two unrelated genomes, so that the significance of fingerprint-based estimation of genome relatedness could be analyzed. The probability could be estimated as outputs of a function formulated with the three parameters: the numbers of observed fragments, all possible sizes of fragments and observed fragments common in a given pair of fingerprints. The parameter most instrumental to significance of relatedness estimation was the number of all possible sizes of fragments. To keep the number of coincidentally-common size of fragments below 10, about 200 fragments should be distinguishable in the fingerprints.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
• /
• v.13 no.2
• /
• pp.179-185
• /
• 2010

In order to secure safety for the buckling and fracture of continuous welded rail and improve the efficiency of maintenance work, it is very important that grasp the characteristics of rail temperature. Recently, the maximum air temperature in summer season rises gradually and the minimum air temperature in winter season is decreasing gradually due to the climate change. Therefore, these phenomenon influences in the change amount of yearly rail temperature and can cause change of laying and maintenance temperature. In this study, actual measurement of rail temperature including climatic factors is carried out by constructing the temperature and climate measurement system as realistic as possible. Through the intensive investigation of actual data, it is founded that the existing prediction formulas for rail temperature may be used only in certain climatic conditions (certain combination of climatic factors). It may be more reasonable that the rail temperature considering actual climatic factors in site is predicted on probabilistic approach.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
• /
• v.35 no.1
• /
• pp.69-87
• /
• 2014

This paper suggests a conditional simulation framework based on multiple data transformations for geostatistical simulation of compositional data. First, log-ratio transformation is applied to original compositional data in order to apply conventional statistical methodologies. As for the next transformations that follow, minimum/maximum autocorrelation factors (MAF) and indicator transformations are sequentially applied. MAF transformation is applied to generate independent new variables and as a result, an independent simulation of individual variables can be applied. Indicator transformation is also applied to non-parametric conditional cumulative distribution function modeling of variables that do not follow multi-Gaussian random function models. Finally, inverse transformations are applied in the reverse order of those transformations that are applied. A case study with surface sediment compositions in tidal flats is carried out to illustrate the applicability of the presented simulation framework. All simulation results satisfied the constraints of compositional data and reproduced well the statistical characteristics of the sample data. Through surface sediment classification based on multiple simulation results of compositions, the probabilistic evaluation of classification results was possible, an evaluation unavailable in a conventional kriging approach. Therefore, it is expected that the presented simulation framework can be effectively applied to geostatistical simulation of various compositional data.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
• /
• v.26 no.2
• /
• pp.157-166
• /
• 2008

This study proposed a model to estimate traffic accident likelihood using real-time traffic data obtained from freeway traffic surveillance systems. Traffic variables representing spatio-temporal variations of traffic conditions were utilized as independent variables in the proposed models. Binary logistics regression modelings were conducted to correlate traffic variables and accident data that were collected from the Seohaean freeway during recent three years, from 2004 to 2006. To apply more reliable traffic variables, outlier filtering and data imputation were also performed. The outcomes of the model that are actually probabilistic measures of accident occurrence would be effectively utilized not only in designing warning information systems but also in evaluating the effectiveness of various traffic operations strategies in terms of traffic safety.

• The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
• /
• v.66 no.8
• /
• pp.1242-1249
• /
• 2017

In this paper, we propose a new algorithm for the performance analysis of the sidelobe blanker (SLB) in radar system, which is based on the matrix pencil method (MPM). In general, the SLB in radar is composed of the main antenna, the auxiliary antenna, and the processing unit. The auxiliary antenna with wide beamwidth receives interference signals such as jamming or clutter signals. The main antenna with high gain receives the target signal in the main beam and the interference signals in the sidelobe. In this paper the Swerling model is used as the target echo signal by considering a probabilistic radar cross section (RCS) of the target. To estimate the SLB performance it needs to calculate the probability of target detection and the probability of blanking the interference by using the signals received from the main and auxiliary antennas. The detection probability and the blanking probability include multiple summations of infinite series with infinite integrations, of which convergence rate is very slow. Increase of summation range to improve the calculation accuracy may lead to an overflow error in computer simulations. In this paper, to resolve the above problems, we used the MPM to calculate a summation of infinite series and improved the calculation accuracy and the convergence rate.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
• /
• v.27 no.5
• /
• pp.219-223
• /
• 2012

For an off-site consequence analysis at nuclear power plant, MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System(MACCS) II code is widely used as a software tool. In this study, the algorithm of web-based off-site consequence analysis program(OSCAP) using the MACCS II code was developed for an Integrated Leak Rate Test (ILRT) interval extension and Level 3 probabilistic safety assessment(PSA), and verification and validation(V&V) of the program was performed. The main input data for the MACCS II code are meteorological, population distribution and source term information. However, it requires lots of time and efforts to generate the main input data for an off-site consequence analysis using the MACCS II code. For example, the meteorological data are collected from each nuclear power site in real time, but the formats of the raw data collected are different from each site. To reduce the efforts and time for risk assessments, the web-based OSCAP has an automatic processing module which converts the format of the raw data collected from each site to the input data format of the MACCS II code. The program also provides an automatic function of converting the latest population data from Statistics Korea, the National Statistical Office, to the population distribution input data format of the MACCS II code. For the source term data, the program includes the release fraction of each source term category resulting from modular accident analysis program(MAAP) code analysis and the core inventory data from ORIGEN. These analysis results of each plant in Korea are stored in a database module of the web-based OSCAP, so the user can select the defaulted source term data of each plant without handling source term input data.

• Earthquakes and Structures
• /
• v.11 no.4
• /
• pp.583-607
• /
• 2016

One of the main applications of seismic risk assessment is that an specific design could be selected for a bridge from different alternatives by considering damage losses alongside primary construction costs. Therefore, in this paper, the focus is on selecting the shape of pylon, which is a changeable component in the design of a cable-stayed bridge, as a double criterion decision-making problem. Different shapes of pylons include H, A, Y, and diamond shape, and the two criterion are construction costs and probable earthquake losses. In this research, decision-making is performed by using developed seismic risk assessment process as a powerful method. Considering the existing uncertainties in seismic risk assessment process, the combined incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) and uniform design (UD) based fragility assessment method is proposed, in which the UD method is utilized to provide the logical capacity models of the structure, and the IDA method is employed to give the probabilistic seismic demand model of structure. Using the aforementioned models and by defining damage states, the fragility curves of the bridge system are obtained for the different pylon shapes usage. Finally, by combining the fragility curves with damage losses and implementing the proposed cost-loss-benefit (CLB) method, the seismic risk assessment process is developed with financial-comparative approach. Thus, the optimal shape of the pylon can be determined using double criterion decision-making. The final results of decision-making study indicate that the optimal pylon shapes for the studied span of cable-stayed bridge are, respectively, H shape, diamond shape, Y shape, and A shape.