Journal of Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회논문집)

Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회)
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The Stochastic Behavior of Soil Water and the Impact of Climate Change on Soil Water

토양수분의 추계학적 거동과 기후변화가 미치는 영향

  • Han, Su-Hee (Dept. of Environmental System Engrg., Pukyong National Univ.) ;
  • Ahn, Jae-Hyun (Dept. of Civil Engrg., Seokyeong Univ.) ;
  • Kim, Sang-Dan (Dept. of Environmental System Engrg., Pukyong National Univ.)
  • 한수희 (부경대학교 환경시스템공학부) ;
  • 안재현 (서경대학교 이공대학 토목공학과) ;
  • 김상단 (부경대학교 환경시스템공학부)
  • Published : 2009.06.30
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Abstract

For the better understanding of the temporal characteristics of soil water, this study is to suggest a stochastic soil water model and to apply it for impact assessment of climate change. The loss function is divided into 3 stages for more specified comprehension of the probabilistic behavior of soil water, and especially, the soil water model considering the stochastic characteristics of precipitation is developed in order to consider the variation of climatic factors. The simulation result of soil water model confirms that the proposed soil water model can re-generate the observation properly, and it also proves that the soil water behaves with consistent cycle based on the precipitation pattern. Moreover, with the simulation results with a climate change scenario, it can be predicted that the future soil water will have higher variations than present soil water.

토양수분에 관한 관심이 급증하면서 토양수분의 시공간적 특성을 이해하고자 하는 연구가 최근 꾸준히 일어나고 있다. 토양수분의 보다 나은 이해를 위해, 본 연구에서는 이에 대한 동역학을 추계학적 기법을 이용하여 기후변화에 따른 영향평가에 대한 적용을 염두에 둔 추계학적 토양수분모형을 제시하고자 하였다. 보다 현실적인 적용을 위하여 손실항을 세 가지로 구분하여 고려하였고 강우의 추계학적인 특성 역시 고려하였다. 모의 결과 본 연구에서 유도한 토양수분 모형으로 관측 자료를 적절하게 재현 할 수 있으며 토양수분이 계절별로 강수의 패턴에 따라 일정한 순환의 형태를 가짐을 재현하였다. 또한 CGCM3.1 자료를 이용한 미래 토양수분 상태 예측으로, 토양수분의 변동성이 현재보다 커질 것으로 예측되었다.

Keywords

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